Risk Analysis最新文献_第10页

Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey. 利用心理图像测量中国的气候变化认知：全国范围内的开放式调查。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17631

Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi

{"title":"Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey.","authors":"Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi","doi":"10.1111/risa.17631","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17631","url":null,"abstract":"Current knowledge about public climate change perception mainly covers belief, concern, and attitudes. However, how this discourse is interpreted using individuals' own frame of reference remains largely unknown, particularly in many large emitters from non-Annex I countries such as China. This study, for the first time, performs a nationwide open-ended survey covering 4,037 respondents and collected 12,100 textual answers. Using a semiautomated coding method, we find seven mental images that exclusively represent the Chinese interpretation of the climate change issue, including global warming, distant icons, natural disasters, environmental degradation, cause, solution, and weather. Analysis of influencing factors shows that females, those with lower education levels, lower income, and older individuals tend to connect climate change with natural weather phenomena. Younger and well-educated residents in developed cities are more aware of various consequences and anthropogenic causes of climate change. People with stronger climate change beliefs, policy support, and personal experience of extreme weather are more likely to mention disastrous impacts, carbon emission as causes, and potential solutions. Employing the multilevel regression and post-stratification technique, we map the prevalence of mental images in China at the prefecture-city level. The results reveal significant geographical heterogeneity, with estimated national means ranging from a high of 55% (weather) to a low of 11% (solution). Our findings reveal diverse perspectives and a widespread misconception of climate change in China, suggesting the need for tailored clarification strategies to gain public consent.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141917416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rescue path planning for urban flood: A deep reinforcement learning-based approach. 城市洪水救援路径规划：基于深度强化学习的方法

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17599

Xiao-Yan Li, Xia Wang

{"title":"Rescue path planning for urban flood: A deep reinforcement learning-based approach.","authors":"Xiao-Yan Li, Xia Wang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17599","url":null,"abstract":"Urban flooding is among the costliest natural disasters worldwide. Timely and effective rescue path planning is crucial for minimizing loss of life and property. However, current research on path planning often fails to adequately consider the need to assess area risk uncertainties and bypass complex obstacles in flood rescue scenarios, presenting significant challenges for developing optimal rescue paths. This study proposes a deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm incorporating four main mechanisms to address these issues. Dual-priority experience replays and backtrack punishment mechanisms enhance the precise estimation of area risks. Concurrently, random noisy networks and dynamic exploration techniques encourage the agent to explore unknown areas in the environment, thereby improving sampling and optimizing strategies for bypassing complex obstacles. The study constructed multiple grid simulation scenarios based on real-world rescue operations in major urban flood disasters. These scenarios included uncertain risk values for all passable areas and an increased presence of complex elements, such as narrow passages, C-shaped barriers, and jagged paths, significantly raising the challenge of path planning. The comparative analysis demonstrated that only the proposed algorithm could bypass all obstacles and plan the optimal rescue path across nine scenarios. This research advances the theoretical progress for urban flood rescue path planning by extending the scale of scenarios to unprecedented levels. It also develops RL mechanisms adaptable to various extremely complex obstacles in path planning. Additionally, it provides methodological insights into artificial intelligence to enhance real-world risk management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141917417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Failure risk management: adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions. 故障风险管理：自适应性能控制和任务中止决策。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16709

Qingan Qiu, Rong Li, Xian Zhao

{"title":"Failure risk management: adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions.","authors":"Qingan Qiu, Rong Li, Xian Zhao","doi":"10.1111/risa.16709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.16709","url":null,"abstract":"The failure behavior of safety-critical systems typically depends on the system performance level, which offers opportunities to control system failure risk through dynamic performance adjustment. Moreover, mission abort serves as an intuitive way to mitigate safety hazards during mission execution. Our study focuses on systems that execute successive missions with random durations. To balance mission completion probability and system failure risk, we examine two decision problems: when to abort missions and how to select the performance level prior to mission abort. Our objective is to maximize the expected revenue through dynamic performance control and mission abort (PCMA) decisions. We consider condition-based PCMA decisions and formulate the joint optimization problem into a Markov decision process. We establish the monotonicity and concavity of the value function. Based on this insight, we show that optimizing the mission abort policy requires a series of control limits. In addition, we provide conditions under which the performance control policies are monotone. For comparative purposes, we analytically evaluate the performances of some heuristic policies. Finally, we present a case study involving unmanned aerial vehicles executing power line inspections. The results indicate the superiority of our proposed risk control policies in enhancing operational performance for safety-critical systems. Dynamic performance adjustment and mission abort decisions provide opportunities to reduce the failure risk and increase operational rewards of safety-critical systems.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resist and recover: Introducing a spring theory for modeling disaster resilience. 抵抗与恢复：为模拟抗灾能力引入弹簧理论。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17452

Robert Weiss, Christopher W Zobel

引用次数: 0

Issue Information ‐ TOC 发行信息 - TOC

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14169

引用次数: 0

Lost needles, pads and where to find them. 丢失的针头和护垫以及在哪里可以找到它们。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17600

Mingming Zhang, Min Gao, Jingwei Wan, Min Liu, Yan Cui, Yu Zhou

{"title":"Lost needles, pads and where to find them.","authors":"Mingming Zhang, Min Gao, Jingwei Wan, Min Liu, Yan Cui, Yu Zhou","doi":"10.1111/risa.17600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17600","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess the frequency and associated factors of surgical \"near-miss\" incidents (NMIs) in neurosurgery using an event reporting system, to inform the development of appropriate interventions. This retrospective study collected reports of NMIs in our hospital's neurosurgery operating room (OR) from January 2019 to January 2022 through an adverse event reporting system and anonymous surveys. We conducted intergroup difference analysis using t-tests and investigated factors contributing to NMIs using Pearson correlation coefficients. We further constructed multinomial logistic regression models to explore the important factors affecting the types of lost objects and search times. A total of 195 NMIs were included in this study, with the primary items lost being 62 brain cotton pads and 133 needles. Statistical analysis revealed that smaller pads (48.4%) and size 3.0 needles (49.6%) were the most commonly missed items, with the longest retrieval times. The likelihood of NMIs occurring was higher for nurses with junior and/or non-neurosurgical backgrounds (needles: 82.7%, pads: 83.9%). Furthermore, factors such as extended working hours, nighttime surgeries, larger incisions, and more surgical instruments all increased the incidence of NMIs. The results of the multinomial logistic regression model showed that the type and search time for lost needles in the OR were jointly influenced by multiple factors (p < 0.05) compared to cotton pads. The occurrence of NMIs is associated with various factors. Reporting NMIs and their causes helps identify solutions before adverse events occur, thereby enhancing patient safety.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141894154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A taxonomy of cyber risk taxonomies. 网络风险分类标准。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16629

Giovanni Rabitti, Amir Khorrami Chokami, Patrick Coyle, Ruben D Cohen

引用次数: 0

Modeling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: A mixed-effects analysis. 新西兰地震保险损失的空间相关性建模：混合效应分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16638

F Marta L Di Lascio, Ilan Noy, Selene Perazzini

{"title":"Modeling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: A mixed-effects analysis.","authors":"F Marta L Di Lascio, Ilan Noy, Selene Perazzini","doi":"10.1111/risa.16638","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.16638","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquake insurance is a critical risk management strategy that contributes to improving recovery and thus greater resilience of individuals. Insurance companies construct premiums without taking into account spatial correlations between insured assets. This leads to potentially underestimating the risk, and therefore the exceedance probability curve. We here propose a mixed-effects model to estimate losses per ward that is able to account for heteroskedasticity and spatial correlation between insured losses. Given the significant impact of earthquakes in New Zealand due to its particular geographical and demographic characteristics, the government has established a public insurance company that collects information about the insured buildings and any claims lodged. We thus develop a two-level variance component model that is based on earthquake losses observed in New Zealand between 2000 and 2021. The proposed model aims at capturing the variability at both the ward and territorial authority levels and includes independent variables, such as seismic hazard indicators, the number of usual residents, and the average dwelling value in the ward. Our model is able to detect spatial correlation in the losses at the ward level thus increasing its predictive power and making it possible to assess the effect of spatially correlated claims that may be considerable on the tail of loss distribution.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141875797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis? 基础设施中的逻辑相互依存关系：它们是什么，如何识别它们，它们对基础设施风险分析意味着什么？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16555

David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park

{"title":"Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis?","authors":"David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park","doi":"10.1111/risa.16555","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.16555","url":null,"abstract":"A useful theoretical lens that has emerged for understanding urban resilience is the four basic types of interdependencies in critical infrastructures: the physical, geographic, cyber, and logical types. This paper is motivated by a conceptual and methodological limitation-although logical interdependencies (where two infrastructures affect the state of each other via human decisions) are regarded as one of the basic types of interdependencies, the question of how to apply the notion and how to quantify logical relations remains under-explored. To overcome this limitation, this study focuses on institutions (rules), for example, rules and planned tasks guiding human interactions with one another and infrastructure. Such rule-mediated interactions, when linguistically expressed, have a syntactic form that can be translated into a network form. We provide a foundation to delineate these two forms to detect logical interdependence. Specifically, we propose an approach to quantify logical interdependence based on the idea that (1) there are certain network motifs indicating logical relations, (2) such network motifs can be discerned from the network form of rules, and that (3) the higher the frequency of these motifs between two infrastructures, the greater the extent of logical interdependency. We develop a set of such motifs and illustrate their usage using an example. We conclude by suggesting a revision to the original definition of logical interdependence. This rule-focused approach is relevant to understanding human error in risk analysis of socio-technical systems, as human error can be seen as deviations from constraints that lead to accidents.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141875796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Pollution risk and life insurance decisions: Microgeographic evidence from the United Kingdom. 污染风险与人寿保险决策：来自英国的微观地理证据。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14279

Morakinyo O Adetutu, Kayode A Odusanya, Simona Rasciute, Eleni Stathopoulou

引用次数: 0