A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis.

Abstract

Risk assessment can be used to evaluate the risks of complex systems and emerging technologies, such as the human-climate nexus and automation technologies, and to inform pathways and policies. Due to the interconnected and evolutionary features of such topics, risk analysts must navigate the dynamics of changing assumptions and probabilities in the risk assessment. However, the current risk analysis approach neglects to a large extent an explicit consideration of these dynamics, either oversimplifying complex systems or neglecting the likely human response to emerging technologies. In this article, we outline why the evolutionary dynamics of assumptions and probabilities in a risk assessment must receive close attention, and then we provide a possible framework through which to consider the dynamics. Ultimately, we propose a formal approach to conceptualizing and implementing the risk description with respect to feedback loops and complex adaptive systems.