Risk Analysis最新文献

A review of optimization and decision models of prescribed burning for wildfire management. 野火管理规定燃烧的优化和决策模型综述。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17680

Jianzhou Qi, Jun Zhuang

{"title":"A review of optimization and decision models of prescribed burning for wildfire management.","authors":"Jianzhou Qi, Jun Zhuang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17680","url":null,"abstract":"Prescribed burning is an essential forest management tool that requires strategic planning to effectively address its multidimensional impacts, particularly given the influence of global climate change on fire behavior. Despite the inherent complexity in planning prescribed burns, limited efforts have been made to comprehensively identify the critical elements necessary for formulating effective models. In this work, we present a systematic review of the literature on optimization and decision models for prescribed burning, analyzing 471 academic papers published in the last 25 years. Our study identifies four main types of models: spatial-allocation, spatial-extent, temporal-only, and spatial-temporal. We observe a growing number of studies on modeling prescribed burning, primarily due to the expansion in spatial-allocation and spatial-temporal models. There is also an increase in complexity as the models consider more elements affecting prescribed burning effectiveness. We identify the essential components for optimization models, including stakeholders, decision variables, objectives, and influential factors, to enhance model practicality. The review also examines solution techniques, such as integer programming in spatial allocation, stochastic dynamic programming in probabilistic models, and multiobjective programming in balancing trade-offs. These techniques' strengths and limitations are discussed to help researchers adapt methods to specific challenges in prescribed burning optimization. In addition, we investigate general assumptions in the models and challenges in relaxation to enhance practicality. Lastly, we propose future research to develop more comprehensive models incorporating dynamic fire behaviors, stakeholder preferences, and long-term impacts. Enhancing these models' accuracy and applicability will enable decision-makers to better manage wildfire treatment outcomes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142695889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An information-theoretic analysis of security behavior intentions amongst United States poll workers. 对美国投票站工作人员安全行为意向的信息理论分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17682

Natalie M Scala, Jayant Rajgopal, Yeabsira Mezgebe, Josh Dehlinger

{"title":"An information-theoretic analysis of security behavior intentions amongst United States poll workers.","authors":"Natalie M Scala, Jayant Rajgopal, Yeabsira Mezgebe, Josh Dehlinger","doi":"10.1111/risa.17682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17682","url":null,"abstract":"In light of recent events related to national elections in the United States, safeguarding the security and integrity of forthcoming elections stands as a critical national priority. Elections equipment in the United States constitutes critical national infrastructure, and its operation relies on poll workers, who are trusted insiders. However, those insiders may pose risks if they make mistakes with detrimental consequences or act with malice. This research analyzes a large dataset of 2213 responses obtained from a survey of poll workers and potential poll workers in 13 states. The survey includes the Security Behavior Intentions Scale, which has been previously established and validated in the security literature. We use the responses to assess poll workers' intentions of complying with established security-related practices. We develop a novel model using information theory to examine potential weaknesses in security behaviors and identify poll worker security practices to improve to ensure the integrity of our elections. We also recommend action items and countermeasures for states and localities based upon this empirical analysis.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142688683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Portrayal of risk information and its impact on audiences' risk perception during the Covid-19 pandemic: A multi-method approach. Covid-19 大流行期间风险信息的描述及其对受众风险认知的影响：采用多种方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17681

Annemarie Wiedicke, Paula Stehr, Constanze Rossmann

{"title":"Portrayal of risk information and its impact on audiences' risk perception during the Covid-19 pandemic: A multi-method approach.","authors":"Annemarie Wiedicke, Paula Stehr, Constanze Rossmann","doi":"10.1111/risa.17681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17681","url":null,"abstract":"Over the last years, infectious diseases have been traveling across international borders faster than ever before, resulting in major public health crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Given the rapid changes and unknown risks that mark such events, risk communication faces the challenge to raise awareness and concern among the public without creating panic. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework-a concept that theorizes how and why risks are amplified or attenuated during the (1) transfer of risk information (by, for instance, news media) and (2) audiences' interpretation and perception of these information-we were interested in the portrayal of risk information and its impact on audiences' risk perception over the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany. We therefore conducted a quantitative content analysis of a major public and private television (TV) newscast (N = 321) and combined it with survey data (two-wave panel survey, t1: N = 1378 and t2: N = 1061). Our results indicate that TV news (as a major information source at that time) were characterized by both risk-attenuating and risk-amplifying characteristics, although risk-amplifying attributes were particularly pronounced by the private TV newscast. Notably, those who only used private TV news between both waves showed the highest perceived severity at time 2. However, the interaction effect of time and use of public and/or private TV news was only significant for perceived susceptibility. Overall, more research is needed to examine the effects of different types of media and changes in risk perceptions over time.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

JointLIME: An interpretation method for machine learning survival models with endogenous time-varying covariates in credit scoring. JointLIME：信用评分中带有内生时变协变量的机器学习生存模型的解释方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17679

Yujia Chen, Raffaella Calabrese, Belen Martin-Barragan

{"title":"JointLIME: An interpretation method for machine learning survival models with endogenous time-varying covariates in credit scoring.","authors":"Yujia Chen, Raffaella Calabrese, Belen Martin-Barragan","doi":"10.1111/risa.17679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17679","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we introduce JointLIME, a novel interpretation method for explaining black-box survival (BBS) models with endogenous time-varying covariates (TVCs). Existing interpretation methods, like SurvLIME, are limited to BBS models only with time-invariant covariates. To fill this gap, JointLIME leverages the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) framework to apply the joint model to approximate the survival functions predicted by the BBS model in a local area around a new individual. To achieve this, JointLIME minimizes the distances between survival functions predicted by the black-box survival model and those derived from the joint model. The outputs of this minimization problem are the coefficient values of each covariate in the joint model, serving as explanations to quantify their impact on survival predictions. JointLIME uniquely incorporates endogenous TVCs using a spline-based model coupled with the Monte Carlo method for precise estimations within any specified prediction period. These estimations are then integrated to formulate the joint model in the optimization problem. We illustrate the explanation results of JointLIME using a US mortgage data set and compare them with those of SurvLIME.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A quantitative analysis of biosafety and biosecurity using attack trees in low-to-moderate risk scenarios: Evidence from iGEM. 利用攻击树在中低风险情况下对生物安全和生物安保进行定量分析：来自 iGEM 的证据。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17678

Xi Zhang, Zhanpeng Xiao, Te Zhang, Xin Wei

{"title":"A quantitative analysis of biosafety and biosecurity using attack trees in low-to-moderate risk scenarios: Evidence from iGEM.","authors":"Xi Zhang, Zhanpeng Xiao, Te Zhang, Xin Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.17678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17678","url":null,"abstract":"As synthetic biology is extensively applied in numerous frontier disciplines, the biosafety and biosecurity concerns with designing and constructing novel biological parts, devices, and systems have inevitably come to the forefront due to potential misuse, abuse, and environmental risks from unintended exposure or potential ecological impacts. The International Genetically Engineered Machine (iGEM) competition often serves as the inception of many synthetic biologists' research careers and plays a pivotal role in the secure progression of the entire synthetic biology field. Even with iGEM's emphasis on biosafety and biosecurity, continuous risk assessment is crucial due to the potential for unforeseen consequences and the relative inexperience of many participants. In this study, possible risk points for the iGEM projects in 2022 were extracted. An attack tree that captures potential risks and threats from experimental procedures, ethical issues, and hardware safety for each iGEM-based attack scenario is constructed. It is found that most of the attack scenarios are related to experimental procedures. The relative likelihood of each scenario is then determined by using an established assessment framework. This research expands the traditionally qualitative analysis of risk society theory, reveals the risk formation in the synthetic biology team, and provides practical implications.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142648626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Two paths of news frames affecting support for particulate matter policies in South Korea: The moderating roles of media exposure and psychological distance. 新闻框架影响韩国颗粒物政策支持度的两条路径：媒体曝光率和心理距离的调节作用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17675

In-Jae Lim, Yungwook Kim, Soyoung Kim

{"title":"Two paths of news frames affecting support for particulate matter policies in South Korea: The moderating roles of media exposure and psychological distance.","authors":"In-Jae Lim, Yungwook Kim, Soyoung Kim","doi":"10.1111/risa.17675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17675","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the paths through which the news frames of particulate matter (PM) influence support for governmental policies aiming to address PM. It also explored the mediating effects of anxiety and risk perception in the relationship between news frames and policy support, as well as the moderating effects of media exposure and psychological distance on the PM news framing effect. Based on an experimental design (N = 676), two groups of news frames were prepared for comparison: a narrative frame group and a numerical frame group. The results showed no significant differences in anxiety or risk perception between the two groups. Further, no significant mediating effects of anxiety or risk perception were found in the process through which PM news frames influence support for governmental policies. However, media exposure significantly moderated the effect of the narrative frame: With high (low) media exposure, the narrative frame positively (negatively) influenced policy support through risk perception. Moreover, when the level of psychological distance was low, the narrative frame positively influenced policy support through risk perception. This study contributes to the literature on news framing of PM by integrating cognitive and emotional mechanisms in forming policy attitudes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A generalized multinomial probabilistic model for SARS-COV-2 infection prediction and public health intervention assessment in an indoor environment. 用于室内环境中 SARS-COV-2 感染预测和公共卫生干预评估的广义多项式概率模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17673

Victor O K Li, Jacqueline C K Lam, Yuxuan Sun, Yang Han, Kelvin Chan, Shanshan Wang, Jon Crowcroft, Jocelyn Downey, Qi Zhang

{"title":"A generalized multinomial probabilistic model for SARS-COV-2 infection prediction and public health intervention assessment in an indoor environment.","authors":"Victor O K Li, Jacqueline C K Lam, Yuxuan Sun, Yang Han, Kelvin Chan, Shanshan Wang, Jon Crowcroft, Jocelyn Downey, Qi Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17673","url":null,"abstract":"SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and its sub-lineages have become the predominant variants globally since early 2022. As of January 2023, over 664 million confirmed cases and over 6.7 million deaths had been reported globally. Current infection models are limited by the need for large datasets or calibration to specific contexts, making them difficult to apply to different settings. This study aims to develop a generalized multinomial probabilistic model of airborne infection to assist public health decision-makers in evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions (PHIs) across a broad spectrum of scenarios. The proposed model systematically incorporates group characteristics, epidemiology, viral loads, social activities, environmental conditions, and PHIs. Assumptions about social distance and contact duration that estimate infectivity during short-term group gatherings have been made. The study is differentiated from earlier works on probabilistic infection modeling in the following ways: (1) predicting new cases arising from more than one infectious person in a gathering, (2) incorporating additional key infection factors, and (3) evaluating the effectiveness of multiple PHIs on SARS-CoV-2 infection simultaneously. Although the results show that limiting group size has an impact on infection, improving ventilation has a much greater positive health impact. The proposed model is versatile and can flexibly accommodate other scenarios or airborne diseases by modifying the parameters allowing new factors to be added.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating the role of community organizations in communicating extreme weather events in New York City: A content analysis. 调查社区组织在传播纽约市极端天气事件中的作用：内容分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17677

Christine Gilbert, Ruobing Li, Brian Colle, Josef Moses, Sarah Golden

{"title":"Investigating the role of community organizations in communicating extreme weather events in New York City: A content analysis.","authors":"Christine Gilbert, Ruobing Li, Brian Colle, Josef Moses, Sarah Golden","doi":"10.1111/risa.17677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17677","url":null,"abstract":"The communication of extreme weather forecasts (e.g., heatwaves and extreme precipitation) is a challenge for weather forecasters and emergency managers who are tasked with keeping residents safe during often unprecedented situations. Weather models have inherent uncertainty, and the ability for potentially life-saving information to get to the people who need it most (e.g., those who need to evacuate) remains a challenge despite the proliferation of digital access to information and social media sites like Twitter. It is also unclear the role that community-based organizations and super-local governmental entities play or may play during weather events in transmitting weather information and providing assistance. In New York City, there remains robust inequality, with communities that are historically disadvantaged often suffering the highest number of deaths and level of destruction following weather events. Results from interviewing 26 New York City community leaders suggest that local organizations often act as intermediaries, passing on official weather information to members of their audience, regardless of the mission statement of their organization. Common challenges for communities in responding to extreme weather include lack of access to information, language barriers, and insufficient resources. Considerations for future weather communication strategies are discussed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From infodemic to resilience: Exploring COVID-19 protective measures in armed-conflict zone. 从信息到复原力：探索武装冲突地区的 COVID-19 保护措施。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17670

Mona Salim, Jiuchang Wei

{"title":"From infodemic to resilience: Exploring COVID-19 protective measures in armed-conflict zone.","authors":"Mona Salim, Jiuchang Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.17670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17670","url":null,"abstract":"The proliferation of inaccurate and misleading information about COVID-19 on social media poses a significant public health concern. This study examines the impact of the infodemic and beneficial information on COVID-19 protective behaviors in an armed-conflict country. Using the protective action decision model (PADM), data were collected from 1439 participants through a questionnaire in Yemen between August 2020 and April 2021. Structural equation modeling tested hypotheses generated by the PADM. The findings indicate that the infodemic reduces the likelihood of individuals adopting protective measures against COVID-19. Surprisingly, official announcements by accountable authorities do not moderate the relationship between the infodemic and protective responses. These results highlight the need for further research on resilience in armed-conflict countries. This study contributes to understanding armed-conflict countries' unique challenges in combating health crises. Addressing the infodemic and promoting accurate information is crucial in enhancing protective behaviors and mitigating the negative impact of misinformation. Policymakers and public health authorities can utilize these insights to develop targeted interventions and communication strategies that ensure accurate information dissemination and encourage the adoption of adequate protective measures.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal sampling strategy for probability estimation: An application to the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring program. 概率估计的最优抽样策略：农业检疫检验监测计划的应用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17669

Huidi Ma, Benjamin D Leibowicz, John J Hasenbein

{"title":"Optimal sampling strategy for probability estimation: An application to the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring program.","authors":"Huidi Ma, Benjamin D Leibowicz, John J Hasenbein","doi":"10.1111/risa.17669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17669","url":null,"abstract":"Imported agricultural pests can cause substantial damage to agriculture, food security, and ecosystems. In the United States, the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) program conducts random sampling to estimate the probabilities that cargo and passengers arriving at ports of entry carry pests. Assessing these risks accurately is critical to enable effective policies and operational procedures. This study introduces a pathway-level analysis with an objective function aligned with AQIM's goal, offering a new perspective compared to the current container-by-container approach, which relies on heuristics to set inspection rates. We formulate an optimization model that minimizes the mean squared error of the probability estimates that AQIM obtains. The central decision-making tradeoff that the model explores is whether it is preferable to sample more arriving containers (and fewer boxes per container) or more boxes per container (and fewer containers), given limited resources. We first derive an analytical solution for the optimal sampling strategy by leveraging several approximations. Then, we apply our model to a numerical case study of maritime cargo sampling at the Port of Long Beach. Across a wide range of parameter settings, the optimal strategy samples more containers (but fewer boxes per container) than the current AQIM protocol. The difference between the two strategies and the accuracy improvement with the optimal approach are larger if the pest statuses of boxes in the same container are more strongly correlated. We recommend that AQIM record box-level (beyond only container-level) inspection data, which could be used to estimate this correlation and other model parameters.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0