Risk Analysis最新文献

The taxonomy of risky activities and technologies: Revisiting the 1978 psychological dimensions of perceptions of technological risks.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17718

Joanna Sokolowska, Zofia Rey

{"title":"The taxonomy of risky activities and technologies: Revisiting the 1978 psychological dimensions of perceptions of technological risks.","authors":"Joanna Sokolowska, Zofia Rey","doi":"10.1111/risa.17718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17718","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to replicate the original study by Fischhoff et al. (1978) and its replication by Fox-Glassman and Weber (2016) and to examine whether risk perceptions for the previously studied activities and technologies have changed over the past 40 years, especially when activities/technologies related to contemporary concerns are included. To achieve this goal, the list of activities/technologies has been modified. To facilitate the analysis of individual data, all participants were asked to rate the benefits and risks of 24 activities. The within-participant approach was also used to achieve the second objective of our study: to analyze the relationship between perceived benefits and risks. In summary, the design of this study differed from previous studies in the following ways: (1) Nine activities/technologies were added related to contemporary concerns such as global warming and fake news on the Internet; (2) all participants rated both benefits and risks; (3) data were collected online (as in the 2016 study); (4) the study was conducted by Prolific with a sample size large enough to detect medium-size effects (n = 382). The two-factor structure proposed by Fischhoff et al.-unknown risk and dread risk-was confirmed on aggregated data for the new set of hazards, which included novel hazards. At the level of individual data, modest support for this structure was observed, and a very strong inverse relationship between perceived benefits and risks was observed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who views what from whom? Social media exposure and the Chinese public's risk perceptions of climate change.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17716

Jiayu Huang, Yumei Bu

{"title":"Who views what from whom? Social media exposure and the Chinese public's risk perceptions of climate change.","authors":"Jiayu Huang, Yumei Bu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17716","url":null,"abstract":"The Chinese public is increasingly experiencing the local impacts of climate change, whereas the government downplays its domestic effects and critical opinions on environmental governance. As climate change perceptions are crucial for individual risk management, adaptation, and collective climate actions, it is vital to explore how these perceptions are shaped. Given the increasing significance of social media in climate change discourse, this study employs survey data from the 2021 Environmental Risk Perceptions and Environmental Behaviors of Urban Residents Project to investigate how social media exposure influences risk perceptions of climate change among the Chinese public. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, this study examines the effect of exposure to environmental information, exposure to opinion diversity, individuals' social media network ties to environmental opinion leaders, and the interaction between social media exposure and cultural values. The results indicate that in the contexts where climate change is neither politically divisive nor openly debated, social media exposure to diverse opinions and social media network ties to environmental scholars positively predict risk perceptions. Additionally, egalitarianism and fatalism are found to moderate the effect of these connections with environmental scholars. This study extends previous research, which focuses largely on the association between the frequency of social media exposure and risk perceptions of climate change, by revealing a more comprehensive and nuanced process that links social media exposure to climate change perceptions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do engagement best practices motivate preparedness intentions? Data from earthquake workshops for Spanish speakers.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17712

Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, Brittany D Brand, Michael K Lindell

{"title":"Do engagement best practices motivate preparedness intentions? Data from earthquake workshops for Spanish speakers.","authors":"Carson MacPherson-Krutsky, Brittany D Brand, Michael K Lindell","doi":"10.1111/risa.17712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17712","url":null,"abstract":"Communities exposed to Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquakes have diverse information needs. However, information about earthquake risk is often developed for general audiences and is rarely tested for its effectiveness at improving risk understanding or preparedness intentions for those general audiences, let alone ethnic minorities. Best practices in risk communication suggest that providing information that is personalized, clear, and culturally appropriate will improve people's willingness to engage with the material and improve learning outcomes. This study reports the test of a 2-h earthquake preparedness workshop that was based on active learning principles, addressed earthquake impacts, preparedness actions, and included goal setting activities to motivate participants' preparedness. We engaged local facilitators to deliver a culturally appropriate workshop in Spanish to 52 participants online and in-person. A pretest/posttest evaluation revealed significant increases in expected earthquake consequences, risk area accuracy for shaking zone and liquefaction zone, positive affect, self-efficacy, and, most important, preparedness intentions. These results indicate that an active learning strategy is an effective method of risk communication. However, further research is needed to identify ways to change the variables that had weak or nonsignificant impacts and to determine if the preparedness intentions ultimately produce preparedness actions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143365866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An adversarial risk analysis framework for software release decision support.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17711

Refik Soyer, Fabrizio Ruggeri, David Rios Insua, Cason Pierce, Cesar Guevara

引用次数: 0

Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17709

Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka

{"title":"Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities.","authors":"Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka","doi":"10.1111/risa.17709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17709","url":null,"abstract":"Risk communicators frequently engage members of the public through social media; therefore, it is important to understand how to effectively communicate risks about environmental and health issues. This experiment with U.S. adults (N = 737) explored how message features in risk-focused social media posts-namely, message modality (text-only posts or text with the inclusion of photographs or data presentations) and risk representation (numerical risk details or nonnumerical summaries of risk information)-influence risk perceptions, perceived message informativeness, and intentions to share the content. To do so, we drew from research on visual communication and research on numerical and nonnumerical representations of risk. We assessed the robustness of these effects across three environmental risk domains (asthma, heat waves, and vector-borne diseases). We found that compared to text-only messages, text with a data presentation (i.e., graph or table) led to enhanced risk perceptions, perceptions of informativeness, and sharing intentions. Relative to nonnumerical messages, numerical messages generated greater perceived risk, were rated as more informative, and elicited greater sharing intentions. Additionally, the effects of risk representation depended on participants' numeracy level, such that numerical messages (vs. nonnumerical) elicited greater sharing intentions and perceived informativeness among high-numeracy individuals but had no such effects for low-numeracy individuals. We also found some evidence that message effects on perceived informativeness differed based on risk topic. Our results suggest that communicators can consider designing social media risk messages with numerical details and data visualizations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk analysis approaches for microbial ingredients in microbial-based cleaning products.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17707

Diane Boesenberg, Chris Brueck, Cindy Chhuon, James Kim, Arthur J Miller, Gerard J Stijntjes, Heidi Vedel, Richard C Whiting, J Ian Van Trump

{"title":"Risk analysis approaches for microbial ingredients in microbial-based cleaning products.","authors":"Diane Boesenberg, Chris Brueck, Cindy Chhuon, James Kim, Arthur J Miller, Gerard J Stijntjes, Heidi Vedel, Richard C Whiting, J Ian Van Trump","doi":"10.1111/risa.17707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17707","url":null,"abstract":"Microbial-based cleaning products (MBCPs) are an emerging class of cleaning products that contain viable microorganisms, often bacteria or bacterial endospores, as intentionally added formulation ingredients for cleaning and/or odor control. Although several well-established methodologies exist to support risk analysis for conventional chemical-based cleaning products, at present there are no widely recognized methods or commonly utilized frameworks to support risk analysis for use of microbial ingredients present in MBCPs, specifically. The purpose of this work is to provide information to MBCP manufacturers and regulators that can be used to assist in developing their own approaches to MBCP risk assessment. As part of this assessment, potential hazards associated with use of bacterial or bacterial endospore ingredients of MBCPs can be adequately characterized, assessed, and managed as part of both product development and ongoing product stewardship. Accordingly, this document summarizes potential approaches to support strain-level identification of microbial ingredient(s), evaluate their hazards and potential for human exposure, and assess their potential effects following such exposures to different human populations. Recommendations for both hazard and risk characterization are discussed. Additionally, guidance is provided to support decision-making by risk managers, including guidance for the development of risk communication strategies, where appropriate, to mitigate the identified risks. Properly applied, the conceptual approaches described herein may facilitate the standardization and more consistent application of appropriate risk analysis procedures tailored to suit microbial ingredients present in MBCPs. Beyond their utility in assessing microbial ingredients commonly used in MBCPs today, these same approaches may help companies and regulators consider and manage risks for new microbial ingredients that may be utilized in future MBCP formulations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Media amplification under the floodlight: Contextualizing 20 years of US risk news.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17701

Cormac Bryce, Michael Dowling, Suwan Cheng Long, Jamie K Wardman

引用次数: 0

Modeling renewable energy market performance under climate policy uncertainty: A novel multivariate quantile causality analysis.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17714

Avik Sinha, Muntasir Murshed, Narasingha Das, Tanaya Saha

{"title":"Modeling renewable energy market performance under climate policy uncertainty: A novel multivariate quantile causality analysis.","authors":"Avik Sinha, Muntasir Murshed, Narasingha Das, Tanaya Saha","doi":"10.1111/risa.17714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17714","url":null,"abstract":"The renewable energy market in the United States of America (USA) has experienced several crests and troughs owing to the changes in the climate policies. These changes in the climate policies have impacted the climate risk management scenario in the USA. This impact has changed the behavioral pattern of the renewable energy drivers, and a supply-side analysis of this aspect is largely ignored in the literature. In this pursuit, the present study aims at analyzing the moderating role of climate policy uncertainty in shaping the behavior of renewable energy drivers in the USA. Given the risk analysis perspective, a novel multivariate quantile-on-quantile causality test is introduced in the present study to address five aspects of risk analysis, i.e., tail dependence, co-movement, predictability, multivariate, and asymmetric impact. Moreover, this test also addresses the omitted variable bias and absence of ortho-partiality distribution, which were inherent to Granger causality test. Along with the analysis at the national level, a firm-level analysis is also done by taking the top-5 renewable energy generation firms of the USA. The results show that the climate policy uncertainty has a dampening effect on the renewable energy drivers, and this effect differs at the firm level. These impacts show a significant policy dimension for addressing the climatic risk management concerns in the USA, while achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 objectives.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17715

Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski

{"title":"Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review.","authors":"Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski","doi":"10.1111/risa.17715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17715","url":null,"abstract":"Government agencies, international institutions, and independent experts have published approaches for the assessment and management of health and environmental risks. This includes evidence-based strategies and publications supporting risk decision-making frameworks reflecting contemporary practices, the overarching context, and governance structures for addressing known and emerging risk issues. This scoping review surveys the literature, over the last five decades, to identify key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making and how these inherent characteristics are related to the overarching regulatory decision-making context. The findings provide insights on how these publications accounted for the circumstances and triggers at that time. This includes incorporating factors reflecting advances in science and technology, a better understanding of underlying values (e.g., societal), and an expansion in the scope and complexity required for conducting different evaluations relevant to health and environmental risks. Consequently, the evolution from linear to more expanded and holistic decision-making frameworks incorporates foundational elements, such as the well-established steps for assessing risks, while adding aspects reflecting transformative changes and paradigm shifts (e.g., the use of non-animal testing strategies for evaluating human safety). Our analysis also resulted in the generation of a consolidated listing of ten attributes: trigger/issue, regulatory context, regulatory factors, core values, risk decision-making principles, cross-cutting attributes, design (scope and steps), structure, decision-making pathway, and evidence-knowledge requirements for risk decision-making. A better understanding of this evolution in risk decision-making and the listing of key attributes will be used in future work aimed at developing considerations for next generation decision-making approaches for health and environmental risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143080968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey. 利用心理图像测量中国的气候变化认知：全国范围内的开放式调查。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17631

Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi

{"title":"Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey.","authors":"Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi","doi":"10.1111/risa.17631","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17631","url":null,"abstract":"Current knowledge about public climate change perception mainly covers belief, concern, and attitudes. However, how this discourse is interpreted using individuals' own frame of reference remains largely unknown, particularly in many large emitters from non-Annex I countries such as China. This study, for the first time, performs a nationwide open-ended survey covering 4,037 respondents and collected 12,100 textual answers. Using a semiautomated coding method, we find seven mental images that exclusively represent the Chinese interpretation of the climate change issue, including global warming, distant icons, natural disasters, environmental degradation, cause, solution, and weather. Analysis of influencing factors shows that females, those with lower education levels, lower income, and older individuals tend to connect climate change with natural weather phenomena. Younger and well-educated residents in developed cities are more aware of various consequences and anthropogenic causes of climate change. People with stronger climate change beliefs, policy support, and personal experience of extreme weather are more likely to mention disastrous impacts, carbon emission as causes, and potential solutions. Employing the multilevel regression and post-stratification technique, we map the prevalence of mental images in China at the prefecture-city level. The results reveal significant geographical heterogeneity, with estimated national means ranging from a high of 55% (weather) to a low of 11% (solution). Our findings reveal diverse perspectives and a widespread misconception of climate change in China, suggesting the need for tailored clarification strategies to gain public consent.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"441-456"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141917416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0