Risk Analysis最新文献

Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections. 艾克大堤在多种气候和海平面上升预测下减轻沿海洪水风险的有效性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70060

Seokmin Son, Chaoran Xu, Meri Davlasheridze, Ashley D Ross, Jeremy D Bricker

{"title":"Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections.","authors":"Seokmin Son, Chaoran Xu, Meri Davlasheridze, Ashley D Ross, Jeremy D Bricker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70060","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of Hurricane Ike in 2008 in the United States, the \"Ike Dike\" was proposed as a coastal barrier system, featuring floodgates, to protect the Houston-Galveston area (HGA) from future storm surges. Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144326807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts? 人工智能能帮助作者更好地准备风险科学论文吗？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70055

Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu

{"title":"Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts?","authors":"Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70055","url":null,"abstract":"Scientists, publishers, and journal editors are wondering how, whether, and to what extent artificial intelligence (AI) tools might soon help to advance the rigor, efficiency, and value of scientific peer review. Will AI provide timely, useful feedback that helps authors improve their manuscripts while avoiding the biases and inconsistencies of human reviewers? Or might it instead generate low-quality verbiage, add noise and errors, reinforce flawed reasoning, and erode trust in the review process? This perspective reports on evaluations of two experimental AI systems: (i) a \"Screener\" available at http://screener.riskanalysis.cloud/ that gives authors feedback on whether a draft paper (or abstract, proposal, etc.) appears to be a fit for the journal Risk Analysis, based on the guidance to authors provided by the journal (https://www.sra.org/journal/what-makes-a-good-risk-analysis-article/); and (ii) a more ambitious \"Reviewer\" (http://aia1.moirai-solutions.com/) that gives substantive technical feedback and recommends how to improve the clarity of methodology and the interpretation of results. The evaluations were conducted by a convenience sample of Risk Analysis Area Editors (AEs) and authors, including two authors of manuscripts in progress and four authors of papers that had already been published. The Screener was generally rated as useful. It has been deployed at Risk Analysis since January of 2025. On the other hand, the Reviewer had mixed ratings, ranging from strongly positive to strongly negative. This perspective describes both the lessons learned and potential next steps in making AI tools useful to authors prior to peer review by human experts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144249444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction? 以碳税和碳减排为代价，紧急订单转移是否比恢复等待更好？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70051

Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song

{"title":"Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction?","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song","doi":"10.1111/risa.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70051","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, frequent extreme disasters have challenged supply chain operations while smart risk warning systems are developed to facilitate firms' emergency order shifting to a new manufacturer. It is noted that reliable manufacturers are usually located in countries/regions levying carbon tax to achieve high ESG scores, so we consider a cross-border supply chain consisting of a global brand, a local brand, an overseas manufacturer and a local manufacturer to investigate the main tradeoffs for the global brand to emergently shift orders from the overseas manufacturer facing disruptions to a stable local manufacturer subject to carbon tax cost. The global brand has the option to wait for the recovery of overseas production but if it chooses emergent order shifting, it has to invest in carbon emission reduction due to ESG requirements. We intriguingly find that even though emergency order shifting helps avert delays caused by production disruptions, a more resilient supply chain does not necessarily lead to a higher profit for the global brand, depending on factors such as the relative market size, carbon tax cost, and the efficiency of carbon reduction investment. We also find that the global brand's emergency order shifting enables Pareto improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, but the win-win opportunities for both the global and local brand only appear under the recovery waiting strategy. So it is generally hard to coordinate the stakeholders' incentives to jointly optimize the ESG scores.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144249445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance. 通过整合库存、供应合同和保险，最大限度地提高救灾预置库存和资金保证策略的成本效益。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70056

Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao

{"title":"Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance.","authors":"Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao","doi":"10.1111/risa.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Relief organizations face numerous challenges, such as funding shortfalls, delays in relief operations, and uncertain demand. A single prepositioning inventory strategy (e.g., stockpiles or supply contract) does not provide an effective solution to these challenges. Therefore, we propose a prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy that combines stockpiles, supply contracts with suppliers, and insurance agreements for relief organizations. A deterministic model for the proposed strategy is established along with the objective of maximizing cost-effectiveness. We establish two benchmark models: one combining stockpiles with supply contract and the other combining stockpiles with catastrophe insurance. Then, we compare the relief performance of maximizing cost-effectiveness with minimizing economic costs and minimizing social costs in the proposed strategy. Two-stage robust optimization models are established to address disaster uncertainties. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is designed to solve robust models, and the Charnes-Cooper transform method is used to transform the fractional objective to an integrated objective. The results of two case studies in Dali and Zhaotong, China, show that the proposed strategy with maximizing cost-effectiveness leads to the acquisition of a moderate amount of insurance with options purchased in quantities that are larger than the stockpiles. Compared with the two benchmark strategies, the proposed strategy can improve cost-effectiveness and achieve cost reduction, especially in years with large disasters. In addition, the objectives of minimizing economic costs and social costs emphasize overly conservative prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategies, while the optimization results of maximizing cost-effectiveness show robustness when facing disasters with various severities.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144235040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Use of updated mortality study of ethylene oxide manufacturing workers to inform cancer risk assessment. 利用最新的环氧乙烷制造工人死亡率研究为癌症风险评估提供信息。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70057

Ciriaco Valdez-Flores, Abby A Li, Thomas J Bender, M Jane Teta

{"title":"Use of updated mortality study of ethylene oxide manufacturing workers to inform cancer risk assessment.","authors":"Ciriaco Valdez-Flores, Abby A Li, Thomas J Bender, M Jane Teta","doi":"10.1111/risa.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70057","url":null,"abstract":"The two most recent cancer risk assessments for ethylene oxide (EO) are based on the same epidemiologic study of sterilant workers conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) but result in cancer risk estimates with three orders of magnitude difference, despite relying on the same assumption of a default linear (non-threshold) extrapolation. A major reason for the difference is the use of different exposure-response models (i.e., the standard Cox proportional hazards [CPH] versus a two-piece linear spline model with a steep initial slope) to derive the inhalation unit risk. The purpose of this research is to utilize analysis of a 10-year update of the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) EO 2053 chemical worker cohort to examine the epidemiological evidence for the shape of the exposure-response model for EO. This updated UCC study provides an external dataset that is informative given high average cumulative exposures (67 ppm-years), extensive average follow-up of over 40 years, and number of male lymphoid cancer deaths (25) comparable to that observed in the NIOSH cohort. This independent analysis of a different cohort using continuous dose response modeling with cumulative or log cumulative exposure metrics provides no empirical support for a steep curve at low exposures. Furthermore, analyses of the categorical odds ratio estimates across different updates of the UCC cohort and for each sex in the NIOSH cohort provide further epidemiological evidence that the standard CPH model more plausibly describes the relationship between EO exposures and lymphoid mortality for both cohorts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144209409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Spatial dynamics of natural gas leaks in the United States: Localized impacts, spillover effects, and policy implications for air quality and safety. 美国天然气泄漏的空间动态：局部影响、溢出效应以及对空气质量和安全的政策影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70049

Haithem Awijen, Younes Ben Zaied, Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh

{"title":"Spatial dynamics of natural gas leaks in the United States: Localized impacts, spillover effects, and policy implications for air quality and safety.","authors":"Haithem Awijen, Younes Ben Zaied, Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh","doi":"10.1111/risa.70049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70049","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the localized and regional impacts of natural gas leaks on air quality and safety, with a specific focus on PM2.5 concentrations and incident dynamics across the United States. Using the Spatial Durbin Model, the analysis reveals significant direct and spillover effects of gas leaks, energy intensity, and environmental regulations on air pollution and safety outcomes. The results demonstrate that gas leaks substantially increase local PM2.5 levels, confirming the role of methane emissions in exacerbating particulate pollution. Furthermore, positive spatial spillovers from gas leaks and energy intensity underscore the transboundary nature of air quality challenges, highlighting the necessity of coordinated regional interventions. Conversely, stringent environmental regulations exhibit significant positive spillovers, catalyzing pollution control efforts in neighboring regions. The study offers actionable policy recommendations, including strengthening monitoring systems, advancing interregional cooperation, and integrating sustainable energy practices to address the interconnected challenges of air quality management and climate risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144216800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

XGBoost-based risk prediction model for massive vehicle recalls using consumer complaints. 基于xgboost的大规模汽车召回消费者投诉风险预测模型

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70052

Yi-Na Li, Ming Jiang, Likun Wang, Jiuchang Wei

{"title":"XGBoost-based risk prediction model for massive vehicle recalls using consumer complaints.","authors":"Yi-Na Li, Ming Jiang, Likun Wang, Jiuchang Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70052","url":null,"abstract":"This study employed the XGBoost model to conduct an in-depth analysis of consumer complaints and identified the key risk factors predicting vehicle recalls in the US market, providing valuable proactive risk management support for automakers and regulatory agencies. We leveraged the extensive data resources from National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to construct high-precision recall risk prediction models to predict the risk of recall. The models exhibited exceptional performance across different time windows, particularly maintaining a high level of area under the curve values over a prediction timespan of up to 18 months, demonstrating their predictive accuracy and stability. Our study contributes to risk management theory by addressing the challenges of integrating consumer complaints into predictive models for vehicle recall risk. While prior research has primarily focused on text mining of complaint content, our work systematically incorporates structured complaint data and recall records to enhance predictive accuracy. Also, our research distinguishes the indicators for the initial recall after launch to the market and the indicators for subsequent recalls, and bridges a critical gap in recall risk prediction at different stages of a vehicle's life cycle.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144183045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leashes, not guardrails: A management-based approach to artificial intelligence risk regulation. 束缚，而不是护栏：基于管理的人工智能风险监管方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70020

Cary Coglianese, Colton R Crum

{"title":"Leashes, not guardrails: A management-based approach to artificial intelligence risk regulation.","authors":"Cary Coglianese, Colton R Crum","doi":"10.1111/risa.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70020","url":null,"abstract":"Calls to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) have sought to establish guardrails to protect the public against AI going awry. Although physical guardrails can lower risks on roadways by serving as fixed, immovable protective barriers, the regulatory equivalent in the digital age of AI is unrealistic and even unwise. AI is too heterogeneous and dynamic to circumscribe fixed paths along which it must operate-and, in any event, the benefits of the technology proceeding along novel pathways would be limited if rigid, prescriptive regulatory barriers were imposed. But this does not mean that AI should be left unregulated, as the harms from irresponsible and ill-managed development and use of AI can be serious. Instead of \"guardrails,\" though, policymakers should impose \"leashes.\" Regulatory leashes imposed on digital technologies are flexible and adaptable-just as physical leashes used when walking a dog through a neighborhood allow for a range of movement and exploration. But just as a physical leash only protects others when a human retains a firm grip on the handle, the kind of leashes that should be deployed for AI will also demand human oversight. In the regulatory context, a flexible regulatory strategy known in other contexts as management-based regulation will be an appropriate model for AI risk governance. In this article, we explain why regulating AI by management-based regulation-a leash approach-will work better than a prescriptive or guardrail regulatory approach. We discuss how some early regulatory efforts include management-based elements. We also elucidate some of the questions that lie ahead in implementing a management-based approach to AI risk regulation. Our aim is to facilitate future research and decision-making that can improve the efficacy of AI regulation by leashes, not guardrails.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144174802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A century of assessment: A systematic review of biothreat risk assessments. 一个世纪的评估：生物威胁风险评估的系统回顾。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70053

Claire Atkerson, Michael T Parker

{"title":"A century of assessment: A systematic review of biothreat risk assessments.","authors":"Claire Atkerson, Michael T Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70053","url":null,"abstract":"Throughout the past century, assessments of the risks and benefits posed by high-consequence biological agents have guided US decision-making on weapons research, countermeasure development, and security policy. However, the dispersed nature of these biothreat risk assessments has presented various difficulties, such as duplicative effort, inconsistent approaches, and sectoral echo chambers. In this paper, we set out to evaluate the world's largest repository of biothreat risk assessments to better understand the historical risk assessment landscape, contextualize current risk assessment output, and extract major themes that may shape future risk assessment development and evaluation. To these ends, we developed a decade-by-decade systematic review of the motivations, context, and conclusions of collected biothreat risk assessments. Our results identify particularly important themes and ideas that have shaped modern biosecurity policy, exhibiting the waxing and waning of approaches and perceptions throughout time. Analysis of these biothreat risk assessments identifies key trends, contextualizes modern risk assessment practices, and gives insight into the trajectory of the field moving forward. Collectively, the lessons learned give perspective on the relative success of approaches and modes of thinking in biothreat risk assessment, providing essential insights for risk assessors of the future.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach. 评估气候变化对飓风风险的影响：一种机器学习方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70042

Chi-Ying Lin, Eun Jeong Cha

{"title":"Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach.","authors":"Chi-Ying Lin, Eun Jeong Cha","doi":"10.1111/risa.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70042","url":null,"abstract":"In the residential sector, hurricane winds are a major contributor to storm-related losses, with substantial annual costs to the US economy. With the potential increase in hurricane intensity in changing climate conditions, hurricane impacts are expected to worsen. Current hurricane risk management practices are based on the hurricane risk assessment without considering climate impact, which would result in a higher level of risk for the built environment than expected. It is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on hurricane risk to develop effective hurricane risk management strategies. However, investigation of future hurricane risk can be very time-consuming because of the high resolution of the models for climate-dependent hazard simulation and regional loss assessment. This study aims to investigate the climate change impact on hurricane wind risk on residential buildings across the southeastern US coastal states. To address the challenge of computational inefficiency, we develop surrogate models using machine learning techniques for evaluating wind and rain-ingress losses of simulated climate-dependent hurricane scenarios. We collect historical hurricane data and use selected climate variables to predict changing hurricane attributes under climate change. We build the surrogate loss model using data generated by the existing fragility-based loss model. The loss estimation of synthetic events using the surrogate model shows an accuracy with a 0.78 R-squared value compared to Hazard U.S. - Multi Hazard (HAZUS-MH) estimation. The results demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing surrogate models to predict risk changes and underline the increasing hurricane wind risk due to climate change.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0