Risk Analysis最新文献

The International Risk Governance Council: Reflections on a 20-Year Experiment in Support of Improved Risk Governance. 国际风险治理委员会：对支持改进风险治理的20年实验的反思。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-10-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70117

M Granger Morgan, Marie-Valentine Florin, Igor Linkov, Kenneth A Oye, Arthur C Petersen, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan B Wiener, Lan Xue

{"title":"The International Risk Governance Council: Reflections on a 20-Year Experiment in Support of Improved Risk Governance.","authors":"M Granger Morgan, Marie-Valentine Florin, Igor Linkov, Kenneth A Oye, Arthur C Petersen, Ortwin Renn, Jonathan B Wiener, Lan Xue","doi":"10.1111/risa.70117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70117","url":null,"abstract":"The International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) was a nonprofit foundation, based first as an independent, freestanding Swiss foundation in Geneva from 2003 to 2012, and then affiliated with École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne in Lausanne from 2012 to 2023. IRGC's mission was to identify and improve the governance of emerging and systemic risks that have, or could have, impacts on human and environmental health, the economy and society, and overall sustainability. In this paper, we recount IRGC's history, describe its many reports, workshops, and conference activities (including tables referencing the many published products), and provide six brief case histories of accomplishments and insights on work IRGC has done on solar radiation management, small modular reactors, synthetic biology, autonomous vehicles, resilience and systemic risks, and international comparison of risk governance. The paper concludes with some brief observations about the impact of IRGC's work and notes the continuing need for a neutral convening entity that can perform a role similar to that of IRGC.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145233420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility. 人工智能与核武器扩散：能见度的技术军备竞赛。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70105

David M Allison, Stephen Herzog

{"title":"Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility.","authors":"David M Allison, Stephen Herzog","doi":"10.1111/risa.70105","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70105","url":null,"abstract":"A robust nonproliferation regime has contained the spread of nuclear weapons to just nine states. Yet, emerging and disruptive technologies are reshaping the landscape of nuclear risks, presenting a critical juncture for decision makers. This article lays out the contours of an overlooked but intensifying technological arms race for nuclear (in)visibility, driven by the interplay between proliferation-enabling technologies (PETs) and detection-enhancing technologies (DETs). We argue that the strategic pattern of proliferation will be increasingly shaped by the innovation pace in these domains. Artificial intelligence (AI) introduces unprecedented complexity to this equation, as its rapid scaling and knowledge substitution capabilities accelerate PET development and challenge traditional monitoring and verification methods. To analyze this dynamic, we develop a formal model centered on a Relative Advantage Index (RAI), quantifying the shifting balance between PETs and DETs. Our model explores how asymmetric technological advancement, particularly logistic AI-driven PET growth versus stepwise DET improvements, expands the band of uncertainty surrounding proliferation detectability. Through replicable scenario-based simulations, we evaluate the impact of varying PET growth rates and DET investment strategies on cumulative nuclear breakout risk. We identify a strategic fork ahead, where detection may no longer suffice without broader PET governance. Governments and international organizations should accordingly invest in policies and tools agile enough to keep pace with tomorrow's technology.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145138642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Louis Anthony "Tony" Cox: Drilling Into Politically Sensitive Risk Issues. 路易斯·安东尼·“托尼”·考克斯：钻入政治敏感风险问题。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70116

Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie

引用次数: 0

An Integrated FMEA Method for Medical Human Reliability Analysis Based on DEMATEL and TOPSIS in Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment. 区间值直觉模糊环境下基于DEMATEL和TOPSIS的医疗人员可靠性综合FMEA分析方法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70113

Qinglian Lin, Xue Pei, Jianfa Zhuang, Duojin Wang

{"title":"An Integrated FMEA Method for Medical Human Reliability Analysis Based on DEMATEL and TOPSIS in Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Environment.","authors":"Qinglian Lin, Xue Pei, Jianfa Zhuang, Duojin Wang","doi":"10.1111/risa.70113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70113","url":null,"abstract":"Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a prospective method for medical human reliability analysis that evaluates the risks of potential medical failure modes. To better address the complexities of medical environments characterized by uncertainty and limited information, this study employs an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set (IVIFS) to represent and analyze such environments within the FMEA framework. To tackle the challenges posed by the subjective ambiguity and hesitation in expert decision-making during the risk assessment of medical failure modes, this paper proposes an integrated approach based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) within an interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy framework. To overcome the limitations of traditional FMEA, which neglects expert weight and risk factor weight, this paper introduces an enhanced methodology. First, a dual-goal programming model is developed, incorporating both individual uncertainty and group consensus among experts to determine expert weight. Second, a comprehensive weighting method that combines expert-driven weighting with information-based weighting derived from fuzzy entropy calculations applied to expert data is applied to calculate the weights of risk factors. The proposed FMEA model presented in this study provides a systematic method to identify and evaluate high-risk failure modes in medical systems proactively. By doing so, it seeks to minimize the occurrence of human medical errors and adverse events while enhancing the safety and reliability of medical service delivery processes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145131917","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Structured Expert Elicitation of Dependence Between River Tributaries Using Nonparametric Bayesian Networks. 基于非参数贝叶斯网络的河流支流相关性结构化专家启发。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70111

Guus Rongen, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Daniël Worm, Matthijs Kok

{"title":"Structured Expert Elicitation of Dependence Between River Tributaries Using Nonparametric Bayesian Networks.","authors":"Guus Rongen, Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles, Daniël Worm, Matthijs Kok","doi":"10.1111/risa.70111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70111","url":null,"abstract":"In absence of sufficient data, structured expert judgment is a suitable method to estimate uncertain quantities. While such methods are well established for individual variables, eliciting their dependence in a structured manner is a less explored field of research. We tested the performance of experts in constructing and quantifying a nonparametric Bayesian network, describing the correlation between river tributary discharges. Specialized software was provided to assist the experts. Expert performance was investigated using the dependence calibration score (a correlation matrix distance metric) and the likelihood of the joint distribution. Desirable properties of the dependence calibration score were investigated theoretically. Individual expert judgments were combined based on performance into a group opinion aka decision maker. All experts were able to create and quantify a correlation matrix between 10 variables that resembled the correlations between observed discharges well. The decision makers performed similarly to the best expert. Based on the metrics investigated, it mattered little which expert opinions and with what weight were combined in a decision maker. This is partly because all experts performed well. Adding a bad performing expert increased the positive effect of performance-based weighting, underscoring the importance of developing scoring rules for dependence elicitation. The overall results are promising: Aided by specialized graphical software, the experts in this study were able to quickly create and quantify dependence structures.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145131868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From Emergency to Strategy: Human Security Priorities After the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes Using Hesitant Fuzzy AHP. 从突发事件到战略：kahramanmaraki地震后人类安全优先事项的犹豫模糊层次分析法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70115

Rafet Emre Toramanoğlu, Sinem Yıldırımalp, Handan Akyiğit, Hatice Turut, Fatma Zehra Toçoğlu, Havva Sert, B Yasin Çakmak, Büşra Yiğit, Bora Yenihan

{"title":"From Emergency to Strategy: Human Security Priorities After the Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes Using Hesitant Fuzzy AHP.","authors":"Rafet Emre Toramanoğlu, Sinem Yıldırımalp, Handan Akyiğit, Hatice Turut, Fatma Zehra Toçoğlu, Havva Sert, B Yasin Çakmak, Büşra Yiğit, Bora Yenihan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70115","url":null,"abstract":"Due to periodic shifts in human security needs post-disaster, recovery processes remain dynamic. However, no comprehensive study in the literature addresses periodic differences in human security dimensions. This research is the first to examine post-disaster human security dimensions with a holistic and systematic approach, and it fills a critical gap in this area. In the study, the Hesitant Fuzzy AHP (HFAHP) method was applied based on decision makers' (DMs) assessments with strategic planning authority during the February 6 Kahramanmaraş/Türkiye earthquakes. Findings highlight short-term priorities in environmental and health security, while economic security emerges as a key long-term determinant. In addition, it has been determined that political and community security dimensions gain more importance in the long term. The study also finds that failure to address these shifting priorities may pose significant risks: In the short term, unmet environmental and health needs can lead to public health crises and hinder immediate response efforts; in the long term, neglecting economic, political, and community security can jeopardize recovery, increase inequality, and undermine resilience. This study provides a new framework that guides the strategic prioritization process for disaster management and human security policies based on the experience of the disaster. The findings guide policymakers to ensure sustainable human security by improving post-disaster resource allocation and management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145114091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Comparing Traditional and Graphical Risk Matrices: A Case Study in Healthcare. 比较传统和图形风险矩阵：医疗保健案例研究。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70104

Albert Kutej, Stefan Rass, Rainer W Alexandrowicz

引用次数: 0

Burning Doubts: Effects of Jargon in Wildfire Emergency Messaging on Receivers With Differing Experience. 燃烧的疑虑：野火紧急讯息中行话对不同经验接收者的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70109

Hugh D Walpole, Micki Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Michele M Wood, Lauren B Cain

{"title":"Burning Doubts: Effects of Jargon in Wildfire Emergency Messaging on Receivers With Differing Experience.","authors":"Hugh D Walpole, Micki Olson, Jeannette Sutton, Michele M Wood, Lauren B Cain","doi":"10.1111/risa.70109","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70109","url":null,"abstract":"Wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) are one tool to communicate imminent wildfire risk and provide guidance to at-risk people. Because WEAs must be short, messages often omit information such as the type of hazard or detailed guidance and often include jargon terms intended to provide both risk and guidance while using fewer characters (i.e., \"evacuation warning\"). However, we do not know how well understood these jargon terms are among the public in areas where they are used or what impact their use has on message perceptions when other key information is omitted. Furthermore, it is not clear whether omitting information or different jargon terms is differentially impactful for those with or without previous wildfire experience. To investigate, we asked participants to interpret a randomly assigned commonly used jargon term in their own words, and then we conducted a 2 × 2 × 2 experiment varying whether the hazard was identified as a wildfire, whether guidance was explained in plain language, and which jargon term was used (evacuation warning vs. evacuation order). We measured the impact of these factors on motivations for protective action moderated by whether or not participants had previous wildfire experience. Our results show a poor understanding of \"evacuation warning\" across experience levels. We also saw significantly elevated perceptions of understanding and believing message content and self-efficacy for messages that included evacuation orders, rather than evacuation warnings, among those without previous experience. We discuss the implications of these results for the use of jargon in wildfire messaging and recommend its omission where possible.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145086145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Adapting Scenario Planning to Create an Expectation for Surprises: Going Beyond Probability and Plausibility in Risk Assessment. 适应情景规划创造意外预期：在风险评估中超越概率和合理性。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70112

James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton, Dilek Önkal, Terje Aven

{"title":"Adapting Scenario Planning to Create an Expectation for Surprises: Going Beyond Probability and Plausibility in Risk Assessment.","authors":"James Derbyshire, Mandeep Dhami, Ian Belton, Dilek Önkal, Terje Aven","doi":"10.1111/risa.70112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70112","url":null,"abstract":"The need for risk assessments to take full account of uncertainty by going beyond probability and creating an expectation for surprises has recently been highlighted in this journal. This paper sets out an adaptation to the Intuitive Logics (IL) scenario-planning method that assists risk assessors to achieve this aim. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this adaptation through a controlled experiment. The controlled experiment took the form of a simulated IL scenario-planning exercise in which individuals assigned values representative of extreme outcomes to sets of simple and more complex clusters of driving forces under three experimental conditions representing alternative uncertainty expressions (\"probable,\" \"plausible,\" and \"surprising\"). The values assigned in the \"probable\" and \"plausible\" conditions were not significantly different from each other. However, the \"surprising\" condition resulted in the assignment of more extreme values than either of the other two conditions. The complexity of a set of clustered driving forces had no effect. A follow-up analysis showed that participants interpreted the words \"probable\" and \"plausible\" similarly. This is problematic for scenario methods like IL, which are claimed to stretch consideration of the future's potential extremity beyond what it would be using probability by instead employing plausibility. If participants interpret \"probable\" and \"plausible\" similarly, then using plausibility instead of probability will not stretch their thinking as desired. By adapting IL in the simple way this paper outlines, scenario planning can assist risk assessors to go beyond both probability and plausibility, thereby taking fuller account of uncertainty and improving anticipation of surprises.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145086942","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Safety Listening in High-Risk Situations: A Qualitative Analysis of Responses to Safety Voice in Aviation. 高风险情况下的安全聆听：航空安全声音响应的定性分析。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70106

Alyssa M Pandolfo, Tom W Reader, Alex Gillespie

{"title":"Safety Listening in High-Risk Situations: A Qualitative Analysis of Responses to Safety Voice in Aviation.","authors":"Alyssa M Pandolfo, Tom W Reader, Alex Gillespie","doi":"10.1111/risa.70106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70106","url":null,"abstract":"Safety listening-responses to voice acts aimed at preventing harm-can avert organizational failures like airplane crashes. Research often focuses on attitudes and perceptions of listening using self-report measures; consequently, little is known about how safety listening occurs behaviorally and influences safety outcomes in high-risk situations. Using directed and summative content analysis, we analyzed 45 transcripts of flightdeck communication before crashes and near misses to develop a framework of safety listening behavior in risky contexts. We also used abductive top-down theorizing to identify the processes through which such behaviors prevent harm. We propose that effective safety listening behaviors engage with voice through action and sensemaking, whereas ineffective listening behaviors dismiss or exhibit token engagement with speaking-up. Our analysis illustrates that engaging with voice enables teams to develop shared and accurate situation awareness of emerging risks, thus potentially averting accidents. Our findings demonstrate the importance of a behavioral approach to safety listening, illustrating that assessing listener engagement with safety voice-rather than attitudes-can provide an accurate and practical explanation for how safety listening influences organizational safety outcomes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145065170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0