Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"XGBoost-based risk prediction model for massive vehicle recalls using consumer complaints.","authors":"Yi-Na Li, Ming Jiang, Likun Wang, Jiuchang Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.70052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70052","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study employed the XGBoost model to conduct an in-depth analysis of consumer complaints and identified the key risk factors predicting vehicle recalls in the US market, providing valuable proactive risk management support for automakers and regulatory agencies. We leveraged the extensive data resources from National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to construct high-precision recall risk prediction models to predict the risk of recall. The models exhibited exceptional performance across different time windows, particularly maintaining a high level of area under the curve values over a prediction timespan of up to 18 months, demonstrating their predictive accuracy and stability. Our study contributes to risk management theory by addressing the challenges of integrating consumer complaints into predictive models for vehicle recall risk. While prior research has primarily focused on text mining of complaint content, our work systematically incorporates structured complaint data and recall records to enhance predictive accuracy. Also, our research distinguishes the indicators for the initial recall after launch to the market and the indicators for subsequent recalls, and bridges a critical gap in recall risk prediction at different stages of a vehicle's life cycle.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144183045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Leashes, not guardrails: A management-based approach to artificial intelligence risk regulation.","authors":"Cary Coglianese, Colton R Crum","doi":"10.1111/risa.70020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70020","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Calls to regulate artificial intelligence (AI) have sought to establish guardrails to protect the public against AI going awry. Although physical guardrails can lower risks on roadways by serving as fixed, immovable protective barriers, the regulatory equivalent in the digital age of AI is unrealistic and even unwise. AI is too heterogeneous and dynamic to circumscribe fixed paths along which it must operate-and, in any event, the benefits of the technology proceeding along novel pathways would be limited if rigid, prescriptive regulatory barriers were imposed. But this does not mean that AI should be left unregulated, as the harms from irresponsible and ill-managed development and use of AI can be serious. Instead of \"guardrails,\" though, policymakers should impose \"leashes.\" Regulatory leashes imposed on digital technologies are flexible and adaptable-just as physical leashes used when walking a dog through a neighborhood allow for a range of movement and exploration. But just as a physical leash only protects others when a human retains a firm grip on the handle, the kind of leashes that should be deployed for AI will also demand human oversight. In the regulatory context, a flexible regulatory strategy known in other contexts as management-based regulation will be an appropriate model for AI risk governance. In this article, we explain why regulating AI by management-based regulation-a leash approach-will work better than a prescriptive or guardrail regulatory approach. We discuss how some early regulatory efforts include management-based elements. We also elucidate some of the questions that lie ahead in implementing a management-based approach to AI risk regulation. Our aim is to facilitate future research and decision-making that can improve the efficacy of AI regulation by leashes, not guardrails.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144174802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A century of assessment: A systematic review of biothreat risk assessments.","authors":"Claire Atkerson, Michael T Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Throughout the past century, assessments of the risks and benefits posed by high-consequence biological agents have guided US decision-making on weapons research, countermeasure development, and security policy. However, the dispersed nature of these biothreat risk assessments has presented various difficulties, such as duplicative effort, inconsistent approaches, and sectoral echo chambers. In this paper, we set out to evaluate the world's largest repository of biothreat risk assessments to better understand the historical risk assessment landscape, contextualize current risk assessment output, and extract major themes that may shape future risk assessment development and evaluation. To these ends, we developed a decade-by-decade systematic review of the motivations, context, and conclusions of collected biothreat risk assessments. Our results identify particularly important themes and ideas that have shaped modern biosecurity policy, exhibiting the waxing and waning of approaches and perceptions throughout time. Analysis of these biothreat risk assessments identifies key trends, contextualizes modern risk assessment practices, and gives insight into the trajectory of the field moving forward. Collectively, the lessons learned give perspective on the relative success of approaches and modes of thinking in biothreat risk assessment, providing essential insights for risk assessors of the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach.","authors":"Chi-Ying Lin, Eun Jeong Cha","doi":"10.1111/risa.70042","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70042","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the residential sector, hurricane winds are a major contributor to storm-related losses, with substantial annual costs to the US economy. With the potential increase in hurricane intensity in changing climate conditions, hurricane impacts are expected to worsen. Current hurricane risk management practices are based on the hurricane risk assessment without considering climate impact, which would result in a higher level of risk for the built environment than expected. It is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on hurricane risk to develop effective hurricane risk management strategies. However, investigation of future hurricane risk can be very time-consuming because of the high resolution of the models for climate-dependent hazard simulation and regional loss assessment. This study aims to investigate the climate change impact on hurricane wind risk on residential buildings across the southeastern US coastal states. To address the challenge of computational inefficiency, we develop surrogate models using machine learning techniques for evaluating wind and rain-ingress losses of simulated climate-dependent hurricane scenarios. We collect historical hurricane data and use selected climate variables to predict changing hurricane attributes under climate change. We build the surrogate loss model using data generated by the existing fragility-based loss model. The loss estimation of synthetic events using the surrogate model shows an accuracy with a 0.78 R-squared value compared to Hazard U.S. - Multi Hazard (HAZUS-MH) estimation. The results demonstrate the feasibility of utilizing surrogate models to predict risk changes and underline the increasing hurricane wind risk due to climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling antimicrobial fate in the circular food system.","authors":"Weixin Huang, Marlous Focker, H J van der Fels-Klerx","doi":"10.1111/risa.70044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70044","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The livestock sector plays a critical role in the circular food production system, but excessive use of antimicrobials (AMs) in livestock farming can lead to AM residue contamination in human food. CirFSafe, a model framework was developed to predict the fate of five different AMs in a primary circular food production system, comprising mixed farms with arable (maize) and animal (bovine) components. Two bovine exposure scenarios to AMs were simulated: annual constant exposure and a one-off exposure in the first year of circularity. Over a 5-year timeframe, model predictions suggest that fertilizing soil with animal manure and feeding animals with maize grown in the same soil are unlikely to cause AM residues in milk or meat exceeding European regulatory limits. Nevertheless, the distinct residual patterns of different AMs across the system underscore the need for precautionary monitoring, particularly for the routine use of flumequine (FLU) and doxycycline (DOX), which exhibits a greater tendency to transfer into food products.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Medical decision-making under risk and uncertainty: Anesthetists' decision to proceed with surgery.","authors":"Zijing Yang, Yaniv Hanoch, Zvi Safra, Tigran Melkonya, Olivera Potparic, James Palmer","doi":"10.1111/risa.70027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70027","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>There is a paucity of work examining anesthetists' willingness to proceed as attending anesthetists (hereafter, WTP) in response to different risky medical conditions. Earlier studies offer only a partial and indirect explanation as to why variations in WTP exist. We evaluated whether psychological factors of risk-taking tendencies, attitudes toward uncertainty, sense of regret, and demographic variables, particularly experience and gender, might clarify the disparities in an anesthetist's WTP. Anesthetists from two National Health Service Trusts in England (i.e., hospitals) viewed, in random order, three different realistic scenarios (representing low-, medium-, and high-risk cases) and were asked to indicate how likely they were to agree to proceed as the attending anesthetist. They also answered questions evaluating their risk-taking tendencies, comfort with uncertainty, and tendency to experience regret. Anesthetists varied in their WTP. Importantly, our data revealed that a sense of uncertainty and regret, but not a risk attitude, could help explain these variations. Female anesthetists were less likely to agree to proceed as attending anesthetists regardless of the level of risk or individual differences, but we found no relationship between levels of experience and WTP. Examining anesthetists' WTP in isolation provides an important but only partial picture. Gaining a better understanding of the factors that drive decision-making is vital for improving both training and practice. In particular, given the high proportion of women in anesthesia, the gender difference found in this study has important implications for anesthetic training and practice.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Pilot flying versus pilot monitoring: The effect of role assignment on pilots' perceived risk in flight simulation experiment.","authors":"Shan Gao, Lei Wang, Nan Zhang, Yu Bai, Yu Tian, Shanguang Chen, Yijing Zhang, Hang Zhou","doi":"10.1111/risa.70048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70048","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Humans' risk perception has been recognized as a significant factor affecting behavior safety. In the aviation domain, the two different roles of crews in the cockpit-pilot flying (PF) versus pilot monitoring (PM)-are responsible for different tasks. However, little is known about how role assignment shapes pilots' perceived risk. We designed a flight-simulation experiment where 57 professional pilots completed two counterbalanced approaches under different role assignments with the assistance of a flight instructor in a full flight simulator. Their perceived risks were measured by psychophysiological responses and compared between the two different cockpit roles. Results indicate that participants exhibited stronger psychophysiological responses (e.g., higher subjective ratings, skin conductance responses, heart rates, and inter-beat intervals) when they served as PF than PM. Particularly, they reported higher scores in affect, susceptibility, and severity dimensions as PF than PM. The asymmetrically psychophysiological responses between the two varying roles in the cockpit emphasize the importance of controllability in shaping the pilot's perceived risk. Theoretically, our findings contribute to the existing literature on pilots' perceived risk. Practically, we pave the way for engaging specific interventions and training for improving crew performance and flight safety.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A comprehensive CREAM method for human reliability analysis of armored vehicle crews based on cognitive performance and operational environment.","authors":"Qingyang Huang, Yuning Wei, Jingyuan Zhang, Xiucheng Xu, Xiaoping Jin","doi":"10.1111/risa.70050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70050","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Given that human error is the primary factor causing combat task failures in armored vehicles, human reliability analysis (HRA) is very significant in enhancing human reliability and work efficiency for crews. To evaluate human reliability quantitatively and accurately, this study proposes a comprehensive cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). First, the weighting factors of different common performance conditions (CPCs) under uncertain conditions are derived by integrating the modified decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based analytic network process with linguistic D numbers. Second, considering the joint effects of cognitive performance and operational environment on crew behaviors, a cognitive performance adjustment coefficient is introduced to improve the conventional CREAM method. Third, group best-worst method and best-worst method based on nonlinear goal programming are used to determine the weighting factors of human intrinsic factors (HIFs). The results of the cross-platform combat task simulation show that the cumulative human error probability (HEP) of crews by this method is estimated as 26%, while the average HEP of the other HRA methods is approximately 24%. The HEP value has improved by 7% on average. The failure in judgment is the most critical contributor to human errors. Finally, according to the sensitivity analysis, the HEPs in different task processes with various CPCs and HIFs have significant differences (p < 0.01). The effect of the change in CPCs on the quantitative assessment of HEPs remains much steadier than that of the HIFs. The proposed method provides an effective method for the quantitative evaluation of human failure probabilities for crews in combat missions, which can decrease the security risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do environmental regulations truly reduce risks? Evidence from the heterogeneity of resource-based cities.","authors":"Shufei Huang, Jianping Ge","doi":"10.1111/risa.70046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Environmental risks have gained significant attention in recent years, especially in resource-based cities, which are often more vulnerable due to their reliance on resource-intensive industries. Most existing studies focus on the direct emission reduction effect of environmental regulation, but fail to systematically reveal its dynamic regulatory mechanism on the multidimensional environmental risks of resource-based cities. Based on the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework and the characteristics of resource cities, we construct a multidimensional assessment system. Taking typical resource cities in China from 2012 to 2021 as the research object, based on the results of environmental risk assessment, we systematically analyze the differentiated effectiveness of environmental regulation from the perspectives of development stage and resource endowment. It is found that: (1) environmental risks of different types of resource-based cities show significant heterogeneity in cumulative characteristics, and their intensity is synergistically regulated by clean technology, ecological restoration, and policy response; (2) the effectiveness of formal regulation to environmental risk shows an inverted U-shape evolution with the life cycle of the resource-based city, and the inhibitory effect of the declining resource-based cities reaches the peak; and (3) resource endowment regulates the effectiveness of environmental regulation, and the pollution-exposed type of fossil energy resource-based cities rely on formal regulation, while ecologically sensitive forest cities rely on the incentive of informal regulation. This study analyzes the interactive mechanisms of environmental risk generation and governance from a dynamic systems perspective and provides a basis for differentiated governance of urban environmental risks in resource-based cities in developing countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144014577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment for hepatitis E in pigs.","authors":"Neil Wilkins, Matteo Crotta, Pachka Hammami, Ilaria Di Bartolo, Stefan Widgren, Mathieu Andraud, Robin R L Simons","doi":"10.1111/risa.70035","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70035","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Foodborne transmission appears to be a significant route for human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in Europe. We have developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for HEV infection due to consumption of three selected pork products (liver pâté, minced meat, and sliced liver), which models the steps from farm to human consumption in high detail, including within-farm transmission dynamics and microbiological processes such as cross contamination and thermal inactivation. Our model is unique in that it considers prevalence and viral load of two microbiological variables, HEV RNA and infectious HEV, expressing the latter in terms of the former through so-called \"adjustment factors\" where data are lacking. When the QMRA was parameterized for France and using infectious HEV, we found that sliced liver posed by far the highest risk of infection, with mean probability per portion &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3.35&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;[&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.28&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.42&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mo&gt;]&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3.35times 10^{-4},[95% text{CI} (3.28-3.42)times 10^{-4}]$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; , corresponding to &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3447&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3372&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3522&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3447,(95% text{CI} 3372-3522)$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; human cases annually. For minced meat, the probability of infection was &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3.68&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;8&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;[&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.56&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.80&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;8&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mo&gt;]&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3.68times 10^{-8},[95% text{CI} (3.56-3.80)times 10^{-8}]$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; , with only &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;21&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mn&gt;20&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;21&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$21,(95% text{CI} 20-21)$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; human cases. While our model predicted appreciable levels of HEV RNA remaining in liver pâté at the point of consumption, the amount of infectious HEV and hence risk of infection was zero, emphasizing the importance of using the correct microbiological variable when assessing the risk to consumers. Owing to its highly mechanistic nature, our QMRA can be used in future work to assess the impact of control measures along the pork-supply cha","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144028032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}