Seismic risk and loss estimation models for building clusters considering the effects of the earthquake intensity and temperature field.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI:10.1111/risa.70058
Si-Qi Li
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Earthquake disasters and extreme temperature fields directly affect the vulnerability and economic losses of building clusters. Seismic intensity measures and structural capacity indicators are widely used to evaluate the seismic fragility and economic losses of buildings. However, the dual effects of low-temperature fields and seismic intensity on the estimation of building economic damage have been considered less. This article proposes a structural seismic hazard model that considers the coupling effect of the seismic intensity and temperature field, utilizing the theory of seismic hazard and risk assessment. An innovative structural seismic vulnerability and loss evaluation function based on the influence of the temperature field was proposed. Four types of building damage samples (170,388,204 sq. m) and temperature data were statistically classified from 12 typical earthquakes (6 in low-temperature fields and 6 in normal-temperature fields) in Xinjiang, China, between 1995 and 2024. An economic loss assessment model for regional building clusters considering the temperature field and seismic intensity measures was developed using probabilistic vulnerability and risk analysis methods. A function for evaluating the actual seismic losses and vulnerability of structures under different temperature fields using nonlinear regression and cumulative economic loss functions is proposed. A structural economic loss evaluation curve is generated considering the effects of temperature fields and intensity measures. A novel calculation method for evaluating the number of people who have lost their homes after an earthquake has been proposed, which combines the dual effects of the temperature field and seismic intensity measures on structural vulnerability.

考虑地震烈度和温度场影响的建筑物群地震风险和损失估计模型。
地震灾害和极端温度场直接影响建筑集群的易损性和经济损失。地震烈度指标和结构承载力指标被广泛用于评价建筑物的地震易损性和经济损失。然而,低温场和地震烈度的双重作用对建筑经济损失估算的影响较少。利用地震危险性和危险性评价理论,建立了考虑烈度和温度场耦合效应的结构地震危险性模型。提出了一种基于温度场影响的结构地震易损性评价函数。四种类型的建筑损坏样本(170,388,204平方米)。对1995 ~ 2024年新疆12次典型地震(低温场6次,常温场6次)的m)和温度资料进行了统计分类。采用概率易损性和风险分析方法,建立了考虑温度场和地震烈度的区域建筑集群经济损失评估模型。提出了一种利用非线性回归和累积经济损失函数来评价不同温度场下结构的实际地震损失和易损性的函数。考虑温度场和强度措施的影响,生成了结构经济损失评价曲线。提出了一种结合温度场和地震烈度对结构易损性的双重影响的地震失屋人数计算方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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