Risk Analysis最新文献_第2页

A new hope or phantom menace? Exploring climate emotions and public support for climate interventions across 30 countries. 是新的希望还是幽灵般的威胁？探索30个国家的气候情绪和公众对气候干预的支持。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17713

Chad M Baum, Elina Brutschin, Livia Fritz, Benjamin K Sovacool

{"title":"A new hope or phantom menace? Exploring climate emotions and public support for climate interventions across 30 countries.","authors":"Chad M Baum, Elina Brutschin, Livia Fritz, Benjamin K Sovacool","doi":"10.1111/risa.17713","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17713","url":null,"abstract":"Emotions are central to human experiences of climate change. Empirical research demonstrates their importance for climate perceptions and climate-related behaviors. The intensifying severity of climate change prompts consideration of emerging, potentially controversial technologies. Alongside mitigation and adaptation, climate intervention proposes to remove carbon dioxide from ambient air (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) or reflect sunlight away from the Earth (solar radiation modification, SRM). Although such options arouse emotional reactions of diverse kinds, the intersection between climate emotions and climate intervention has received limited attention. This article employed a unique, global dataset with 30,284 participants across 30 countries (in 19 languages) to provide insights on 3 questions. We first leveraged the global dataset to map the incidence of fear, hope, anger, sadness, and worry across countries-the first time the climate emotions of adults are investigated on this scale. We also identified significant differences in emotions by level of development, with those in advanced economies reporting weaker levels of climate emotions. Second, using multiple linear regression analyses, we explored the relationship between climate emotions and support for climate-intervention technologies. We determined that the emotions of hope and worry seem to be the most consistently (positively) correlated. Third, we explored if reading about technology categories differentially affected climate emotions. Individuals randomly assigned to read about ecosystems-based CDR were significantly more hopeful about climate change (those about SRM the least). Together, our results provide the first global-level evidence of the relationship between discrete climate emotions and perceptions and support of climate interventions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143633612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Transition in dynamic events: The 2020 lightning complex fires in Northern California as an adaptive system. 动态事件中的过渡：2020年北加州闪电复杂火灾作为一个自适应系统。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70015

Louise Comfort, Saemi Chang

引用次数: 0

Global sensitivity analyses for test planning with black-box models for Mars Sample Return. 火星样品返回黑箱模型测试计划的全局敏感性分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70010

Giuseppe Cataldo, Emanuele Borgonovo, Aaron Siddens, Kevin Carpenter, Martin Nado, Elmar Plischke

{"title":"Global sensitivity analyses for test planning with black-box models for Mars Sample Return.","authors":"Giuseppe Cataldo, Emanuele Borgonovo, Aaron Siddens, Kevin Carpenter, Martin Nado, Elmar Plischke","doi":"10.1111/risa.70010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70010","url":null,"abstract":"This work describes sensitivity analyses performed on complex black-box models used to support experimental test planning under limited resources in the context of the Mars Sample Return program, which aims at bringing to Earth rock, regolith, and atmospheric samples from Mars. We develop a systematic workflow that allows the analysts to simultaneously obtain quantitative insights on key drivers of uncertainty, the direction of impact, and the presence of interactions. We apply optimal transport-based global sensitivity measures to tackle the multivariate nature of the output and we rely on sensitivity measures that do not require independence between the model inputs for the univariate output case. On the modeling side, we apply multifidelity techniques that leverage low-fidelity models to speed up the calculations and make up for the limited amount of high-fidelity samples, while keeping the latter in the loop for accuracy guarantees. The sensitivity analysis reveals insights useful to understand the model's behavior and identify the factors to focus on during testing, in order to maximize the informational value extracted from these tests and ensure mission success even with limited resources.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143625648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence for risk analysis and the risks of artificial intelligence: Part 1. 人工智能风险分析与人工智能风险：第1部分。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70017

Vicki Bier, Emanuele Borgonovo, Tony Cox, Cynthia Rudin

引用次数: 0

End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: A study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland. 最终用户和预报员对欧洲雪崩危险等级的解释：苏格兰雪崩概率判断的研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70016

Philip A Ebert, David L Miller, David A Comerford, Mark Diggins

引用次数: 0

Should I stay or should I go? Leveraging data-driven approaches to explore the effect of various disaster policies on postearthquake household relocation decision-making. 我该留下还是走？利用数据驱动的方法，探讨各种灾害政策对震后家庭搬迁决策的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70007

Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso

{"title":"Should I stay or should I go? Leveraging data-driven approaches to explore the effect of various disaster policies on postearthquake household relocation decision-making.","authors":"Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso","doi":"10.1111/risa.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70007","url":null,"abstract":"Devastating earthquakes can cause affected households to relocate. Postearthquake relocation disrupts impacted households' social ties and, in some instances, their access to affordable services. Simulation-based approaches that model postearthquake relocation decision-making can be valuable tools for supporting the development of related disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies. Yet, existing versions of these models focus particularly on housing-related factors, which are not the sole driver of postearthquake relocation. We integrate data-driven approaches and local data to account for postearthquake household relocation decision-making within an existing simulation-based framework for policy-related risk-sensitive decision support on future urban development. We use household survey data related to the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal to develop a random forest model that estimates the postearthquake relocation inclination of disaster-affected households. The developed model holistically captures various context-specific factors important to postearthquake household relocation decision-making. We leverage the framework to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various DRR policies in reducing positive postearthquake relocation inclination, with an explicit focus on low-income households. We demonstrate it using \"Tomorrowville,\" a hypothetical expanding urban extent that reflects important social and physical characteristics of Kathmandu, Nepal. Our analyses suggest that the provision of livelihood assistance funds is more successful when it comes to mitigating positive postearthquake relocation inclination than hard policies focused on strengthening buildings (at least in the context of the examined case study). They also suggest viable pro-poor pathways for mitigating disaster relocation impacts without the need to create potentially politically sensitive income-based restrictions on policy remits.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143606243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for resilience assessment of transportation networks exposed to geohazard threats. 面对地质灾害威胁的交通网络复原力评估框架。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70014

Chao Fang, Mingce Wang, Haoran Fu, Yanze Chu, Enrico Zio

引用次数: 0

Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery. 洪水足迹评估：评估外部援助对灾后恢复的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70013

Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du

{"title":"Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery.","authors":"Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du","doi":"10.1111/risa.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70013","url":null,"abstract":"Mitigating the risks posed by natural disasters has become a pressing public concern due to their increasingly frequent and intense occurrences, which threaten human lives and socio-economic development. External assistance (EA), as a common form of support for post-disaster reconstruction, has been recognized as significant in several studies. However, the lack of an assessment method has made it unclear to what extent economic recovery can be affected by EA. To address this problem, we adopt the flood footprint as an indicator and improve the flood footprint model by combining it with the consideration of EA. The purpose is to quantify the economic impact of EA on post-disaster recovery. In a successful application case of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan disaster in Hainan province, China, we have validated the feasibility and flexibility of our approach. We found that EA, which accounted for 2.4% of direct economic losses, resulted in a 7.31% reduction of indirect economic losses in the Hainan case. These findings indicate that EA positively impacts short-term economic risk reduction, despite its complex influence on the overall economy. Furthermore, through scenario analysis on alternative EA schemes, we discuss that the ration scheme is a significant factor in determining EA's impact. Policymakers can minimize the indirect flood footprint and facilitate post-disaster economic recovery by implementing alternative EA schemes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis. 风险分析中不断演变的假设框架。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70009

Kendrick Hardaway, Roger Flage

引用次数: 0

Information value versus flexibility cost: Comparison of dual sourcing and artificial intelligence sourcing for resilient supply. 信息价值与灵活性成本：弹性供应的双重采购和人工智能采购的比较。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70005

Baozhuang Niu, Zebin Zheng, Lingfeng Wang

引用次数: 0