Risk Analysis最新文献_第2页

Seismic risk and loss estimation models for building clusters considering the effects of the earthquake intensity and temperature field. 考虑地震烈度和温度场影响的建筑物群地震风险和损失估计模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70058

Si-Qi Li

{"title":"Seismic risk and loss estimation models for building clusters considering the effects of the earthquake intensity and temperature field.","authors":"Si-Qi Li","doi":"10.1111/risa.70058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70058","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquake disasters and extreme temperature fields directly affect the vulnerability and economic losses of building clusters. Seismic intensity measures and structural capacity indicators are widely used to evaluate the seismic fragility and economic losses of buildings. However, the dual effects of low-temperature fields and seismic intensity on the estimation of building economic damage have been considered less. This article proposes a structural seismic hazard model that considers the coupling effect of the seismic intensity and temperature field, utilizing the theory of seismic hazard and risk assessment. An innovative structural seismic vulnerability and loss evaluation function based on the influence of the temperature field was proposed. Four types of building damage samples (170,388,204 sq. m) and temperature data were statistically classified from 12 typical earthquakes (6 in low-temperature fields and 6 in normal-temperature fields) in Xinjiang, China, between 1995 and 2024. An economic loss assessment model for regional building clusters considering the temperature field and seismic intensity measures was developed using probabilistic vulnerability and risk analysis methods. A function for evaluating the actual seismic losses and vulnerability of structures under different temperature fields using nonlinear regression and cumulative economic loss functions is proposed. A structural economic loss evaluation curve is generated considering the effects of temperature fields and intensity measures. A novel calculation method for evaluating the number of people who have lost their homes after an earthquake has been proposed, which combines the dual effects of the temperature field and seismic intensity measures on structural vulnerability.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144529469","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Preprints in COVID-19 news coverage: Comparing student and general population perceptions of preliminary science about booster vaccination. COVID-19新闻报道的预印本：比较学生和一般人群对加强疫苗接种的初步科学认识

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70071

Rebekah Wicke, Chelsea L Ratcliff, Alice Fleerackers, Yidi Wang, Andy J King, Jakob D Jensen

{"title":"Preprints in COVID-19 news coverage: Comparing student and general population perceptions of preliminary science about booster vaccination.","authors":"Rebekah Wicke, Chelsea L Ratcliff, Alice Fleerackers, Yidi Wang, Andy J King, Jakob D Jensen","doi":"10.1111/risa.70071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70071","url":null,"abstract":"News framing of preprint research during the COVID-19 pandemic varied widely, with some articles reporting the findings of preprint studies with a high degree of certainty and others highlighting the preliminary and unpublished nature of the work. As publicly available research articles that have not yet been peer-reviewed, preprints represent a unique form of scientific uncertainty in risk communication contexts, and we lack a complete picture of how public audiences respond to transparency about this uncertainty. Replicating and extending prior work, we examined how preprint disclosures and lexical hedging influenced COVID-19 booster vaccine attitudes and intentions in a college student sample (N = 837) and a general population sample (N = 431). Participants in both groups perceived the disclosure of preprint status. However, neither preprint disclosure nor lexical hedging had a direct effect on perceived trustworthiness of the news article or the scientists, nor on booster attitudes or intentions, replicating our prior findings. As preprints have begun to receive more attention in the media, it is important to make sure the public is properly educated about their tentative nature.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144529468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel risk communication model for online public opinion dissemination that integrates the SIR and Markov chains. 一种融合SIR链和马尔可夫链的网络舆论传播风险沟通模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70068

Qian Zhou, Jianping Li, Dengsheng Wu, Xin Long Xu

{"title":"A novel risk communication model for online public opinion dissemination that integrates the SIR and Markov chains.","authors":"Qian Zhou, Jianping Li, Dengsheng Wu, Xin Long Xu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70068","url":null,"abstract":"With the rapid advancement of the internet, particularly the widespread adoption of social media, online public opinion at universities has emerged as a critical issue for both societal and educational governance. Research on the dissemination of public opinion-based risks is often based on infectious disease transmission models. However, these studies largely overlook the stochastic nature of public opinion communication and rely on subjective assumptions regarding the size of the opinion-sensitive population. To address these limitations, we propose a novel public opinion risk dissemination model that integrates the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) framework with Markov chain theory and develops a PIA to quantitatively estimate the scale of the opinion-sensitive population. Through intervention analysis of public opinion, we examined the impacts of the transmission rate, immune rate, and number of susceptible individuals on the velocity, duration, and scope of public opinion dissemination. The results indicate that significant differences exist in the size of the opinion-sensitive population and the transmission rate across different public opinion events. Furthermore, reducing the size of the opinion-sensitive population is a core strategy for suppressing the size of the communication peak, increasing the immune rate is a key measure for shortening the communication cycle and lowering the transmission rate is an important approach for delaying the time to reach the peak of public opinion, though excessively low transmission rates should be avoided. On the basis of in-depth analyses of the mechanisms underlying public opinion risk communication, precise early warning and intervention strategies for universities and relevant administrative bodies are established to enhance the effectiveness of public opinion management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144508017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The importance of structural elements in narrative persuasion: Using the narrative immersion model to promote melanoma prevention. 叙事说服中结构元素的重要性：运用叙事沉浸模式促进黑色素瘤预防。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70063

Helen M Lillie, Jakob D Jensen, Melinda Krakow

{"title":"The importance of structural elements in narrative persuasion: Using the narrative immersion model to promote melanoma prevention.","authors":"Helen M Lillie, Jakob D Jensen, Melinda Krakow","doi":"10.1111/risa.70063","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70063","url":null,"abstract":"Narrative health and risk messaging is most effective when audiences become immersed in the story. The narrative immersion model (NIM) suggests that certain structural elements can increase narrative immersion. Notably, these structural elements are often found in naturally occurring diagnostic narratives (i.e., stories focused on diagnoses). Across two studies, the current research tested four NIM-supported structural elements in the melanoma context. Study 1 (N = 455) tested the effects of point of view, inclusion of a prologue, and explicit time orientation in a melanoma survivor narrative. Sunscreen intention was highest for a first-person story with a prologue, followed by a third-person story without a prologue. Study 2 (N = 592) added nuance by comparing the effects of point of view and prologue for a survivor versus a death outcome. The finding from Study 1 was replicated for the survivor outcome, but the opposite pattern-third-person with a prologue and first-person without a prologue-produced the greatest sunscreen intention with a death outcome. Identification was the mechanism of effect for Study 1; believability was the mechanism of effect for Study 2. Findings contribute greater nuance to research and theorizing about first-person voice, demonstrating that effectiveness is dependent on other story elements. Practically, the current research also highlights the importance of carefully considering how narrative health and risk messaging is constructed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144497987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risks of ignoring uncertainty propagation in AI-augmented security pipelines. 忽视人工智能增强安全管道中不确定性传播的风险。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70059

Emanuele Mezzi, Aurora Papotti, Fabio Massacci, Katja Tuma

引用次数: 0

Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections. 艾克大堤在多种气候和海平面上升预测下减轻沿海洪水风险的有效性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70060

Seokmin Son, Chaoran Xu, Meri Davlasheridze, Ashley D Ross, Jeremy D Bricker

{"title":"Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections.","authors":"Seokmin Son, Chaoran Xu, Meri Davlasheridze, Ashley D Ross, Jeremy D Bricker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70060","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70060","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of Hurricane Ike in 2008 in the United States, the \"Ike Dike\" was proposed as a coastal barrier system, featuring floodgates, to protect the Houston-Galveston area (HGA) from future storm surges. Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144326807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts? 人工智能能帮助作者更好地准备风险科学论文吗？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70055

Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu

{"title":"Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts?","authors":"Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70055","url":null,"abstract":"Scientists, publishers, and journal editors are wondering how, whether, and to what extent artificial intelligence (AI) tools might soon help to advance the rigor, efficiency, and value of scientific peer review. Will AI provide timely, useful feedback that helps authors improve their manuscripts while avoiding the biases and inconsistencies of human reviewers? Or might it instead generate low-quality verbiage, add noise and errors, reinforce flawed reasoning, and erode trust in the review process? This perspective reports on evaluations of two experimental AI systems: (i) a \"Screener\" available at http://screener.riskanalysis.cloud/ that gives authors feedback on whether a draft paper (or abstract, proposal, etc.) appears to be a fit for the journal Risk Analysis, based on the guidance to authors provided by the journal (https://www.sra.org/journal/what-makes-a-good-risk-analysis-article/); and (ii) a more ambitious \"Reviewer\" (http://aia1.moirai-solutions.com/) that gives substantive technical feedback and recommends how to improve the clarity of methodology and the interpretation of results. The evaluations were conducted by a convenience sample of Risk Analysis Area Editors (AEs) and authors, including two authors of manuscripts in progress and four authors of papers that had already been published. The Screener was generally rated as useful. It has been deployed at Risk Analysis since January of 2025. On the other hand, the Reviewer had mixed ratings, ranging from strongly positive to strongly negative. This perspective describes both the lessons learned and potential next steps in making AI tools useful to authors prior to peer review by human experts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144249444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction? 以碳税和碳减排为代价，紧急订单转移是否比恢复等待更好？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70051

Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song

{"title":"Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction?","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song","doi":"10.1111/risa.70051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70051","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, frequent extreme disasters have challenged supply chain operations while smart risk warning systems are developed to facilitate firms' emergency order shifting to a new manufacturer. It is noted that reliable manufacturers are usually located in countries/regions levying carbon tax to achieve high ESG scores, so we consider a cross-border supply chain consisting of a global brand, a local brand, an overseas manufacturer and a local manufacturer to investigate the main tradeoffs for the global brand to emergently shift orders from the overseas manufacturer facing disruptions to a stable local manufacturer subject to carbon tax cost. The global brand has the option to wait for the recovery of overseas production but if it chooses emergent order shifting, it has to invest in carbon emission reduction due to ESG requirements. We intriguingly find that even though emergency order shifting helps avert delays caused by production disruptions, a more resilient supply chain does not necessarily lead to a higher profit for the global brand, depending on factors such as the relative market size, carbon tax cost, and the efficiency of carbon reduction investment. We also find that the global brand's emergency order shifting enables Pareto improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, but the win-win opportunities for both the global and local brand only appear under the recovery waiting strategy. So it is generally hard to coordinate the stakeholders' incentives to jointly optimize the ESG scores.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144249445","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance. 通过整合库存、供应合同和保险，最大限度地提高救灾预置库存和资金保证策略的成本效益。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70056

Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao

{"title":"Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance.","authors":"Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao","doi":"10.1111/risa.70056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Relief organizations face numerous challenges, such as funding shortfalls, delays in relief operations, and uncertain demand. A single prepositioning inventory strategy (e.g., stockpiles or supply contract) does not provide an effective solution to these challenges. Therefore, we propose a prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy that combines stockpiles, supply contracts with suppliers, and insurance agreements for relief organizations. A deterministic model for the proposed strategy is established along with the objective of maximizing cost-effectiveness. We establish two benchmark models: one combining stockpiles with supply contract and the other combining stockpiles with catastrophe insurance. Then, we compare the relief performance of maximizing cost-effectiveness with minimizing economic costs and minimizing social costs in the proposed strategy. Two-stage robust optimization models are established to address disaster uncertainties. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is designed to solve robust models, and the Charnes-Cooper transform method is used to transform the fractional objective to an integrated objective. The results of two case studies in Dali and Zhaotong, China, show that the proposed strategy with maximizing cost-effectiveness leads to the acquisition of a moderate amount of insurance with options purchased in quantities that are larger than the stockpiles. Compared with the two benchmark strategies, the proposed strategy can improve cost-effectiveness and achieve cost reduction, especially in years with large disasters. In addition, the objectives of minimizing economic costs and social costs emphasize overly conservative prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategies, while the optimization results of maximizing cost-effectiveness show robustness when facing disasters with various severities.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144235040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Use of updated mortality study of ethylene oxide manufacturing workers to inform cancer risk assessment. 利用最新的环氧乙烷制造工人死亡率研究为癌症风险评估提供信息。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70057

Ciriaco Valdez-Flores, Abby A Li, Thomas J Bender, M Jane Teta

{"title":"Use of updated mortality study of ethylene oxide manufacturing workers to inform cancer risk assessment.","authors":"Ciriaco Valdez-Flores, Abby A Li, Thomas J Bender, M Jane Teta","doi":"10.1111/risa.70057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70057","url":null,"abstract":"The two most recent cancer risk assessments for ethylene oxide (EO) are based on the same epidemiologic study of sterilant workers conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) but result in cancer risk estimates with three orders of magnitude difference, despite relying on the same assumption of a default linear (non-threshold) extrapolation. A major reason for the difference is the use of different exposure-response models (i.e., the standard Cox proportional hazards [CPH] versus a two-piece linear spline model with a steep initial slope) to derive the inhalation unit risk. The purpose of this research is to utilize analysis of a 10-year update of the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) EO 2053 chemical worker cohort to examine the epidemiological evidence for the shape of the exposure-response model for EO. This updated UCC study provides an external dataset that is informative given high average cumulative exposures (67 ppm-years), extensive average follow-up of over 40 years, and number of male lymphoid cancer deaths (25) comparable to that observed in the NIOSH cohort. This independent analysis of a different cohort using continuous dose response modeling with cumulative or log cumulative exposure metrics provides no empirical support for a steep curve at low exposures. Furthermore, analyses of the categorical odds ratio estimates across different updates of the UCC cohort and for each sex in the NIOSH cohort provide further epidemiological evidence that the standard CPH model more plausibly describes the relationship between EO exposures and lymphoid mortality for both cohorts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144209409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0