Risk Analysis最新文献_第2页

Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis? 基础设施中的逻辑相互依存关系：它们是什么，如何识别它们，它们对基础设施风险分析意味着什么？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16555

David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park

{"title":"Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis?","authors":"David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park","doi":"10.1111/risa.16555","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16555","url":null,"abstract":"A useful theoretical lens that has emerged for understanding urban resilience is the four basic types of interdependencies in critical infrastructures: the physical, geographic, cyber, and logical types. This paper is motivated by a conceptual and methodological limitation-although logical interdependencies (where two infrastructures affect the state of each other via human decisions) are regarded as one of the basic types of interdependencies, the question of how to apply the notion and how to quantify logical relations remains under-explored. To overcome this limitation, this study focuses on institutions (rules), for example, rules and planned tasks guiding human interactions with one another and infrastructure. Such rule-mediated interactions, when linguistically expressed, have a syntactic form that can be translated into a network form. We provide a foundation to delineate these two forms to detect logical interdependence. Specifically, we propose an approach to quantify logical interdependence based on the idea that (1) there are certain network motifs indicating logical relations, (2) such network motifs can be discerned from the network form of rules, and that (3) the higher the frequency of these motifs between two infrastructures, the greater the extent of logical interdependency. We develop a set of such motifs and illustrate their usage using an example. We conclude by suggesting a revision to the original definition of logical interdependence. This rule-focused approach is relevant to understanding human error in risk analysis of socio-technical systems, as human error can be seen as deviations from constraints that lead to accidents.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"356-375"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787953/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141875796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability. 通过纳入贝叶斯基准剂量模型和关于人群变异性的体外数据，减少剂量反应评估中的不确定性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17451

En-Hsuan Lu, Lucie C Ford, Ivan Rusyn, Weihsueh A Chiu

{"title":"Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability.","authors":"En-Hsuan Lu, Lucie C Ford, Ivan Rusyn, Weihsueh A Chiu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17451","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17451","url":null,"abstract":"There are two primary sources of uncertainty in the interpretability of toxicity values, like the reference dose (RfD): estimates of the point of departure (POD) and the absence of chemical-specific human variability data. We hypothesize two solutions-employing Bayesian benchmark dose (BBMD) modeling to refine POD determination and combining high-throughput toxicokinetic modeling with population-based toxicodynamic in vitro data to characterize chemical-specific variability. These hypotheses were tested by deriving refined probabilistic estimates for human doses corresponding to a specific effect size (M) in the Ith population percentile (HDM I) across 19 Superfund priority chemicals. HDM I values were further converted to biomonitoring equivalents in blood and urine for benchmarking against human data. Compared to deterministic default-based RfDs, HDM I values were generally more protective, particularly influenced by chemical-specific data on interindividual variability. Incorporating chemical-specific in vitro data improved precision in probabilistic RfDs, with a median 1.4-fold reduction in uncertainty variance. Comparison with US Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Forecasting exposure predictions and biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey identified chemicals with margins of exposure nearing or below one. Overall, to mitigate uncertainty in regulatory toxicity values and guide chemical risk management, BBMD modeling and chemical-specific population-based human in vitro data are essential.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"457-472"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787958/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141988760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resist and recover: Introducing a spring theory for modeling disaster resilience. 抵抗与恢复：为模拟抗灾能力引入弹簧理论。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17452

Robert Weiss, Christopher W Zobel

引用次数: 0

An integrated approach to analyze equitable access to food stores under disasters from human mobility patterns. 采用综合方法，从人类流动模式分析灾害情况下公平获取食品的途径。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16873

Zhiyuan Wei, Sayanti Mukherjee

{"title":"An integrated approach to analyze equitable access to food stores under disasters from human mobility patterns.","authors":"Zhiyuan Wei, Sayanti Mukherjee","doi":"10.1111/risa.16873","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16873","url":null,"abstract":"Limited access to food stores is often linked to higher health risks and lower community resilience. Socially vulnerable populations experience persistent disparities in equitable food store access. However, little research has been done to examine how people's access to food stores is affected by natural disasters. Previous studies mainly focus on examining potential access using the travel distance to the nearest food store, which often falls short of capturing the actual access of people. Therefore, to fill this gap, this paper incorporates human mobility patterns into the measure of actual access, leveraging large-scale mobile phone data. Specifically, we propose a novel enhanced two-step floating catchment area method with travel preferences (E2SFCA-TP) to measure accessibility, which extends the traditional E2SFCA model by integrating actual human mobility behaviors. We then analyze people's actual access to grocery and convenience stores across both space and time under the devastating winter storm Uri in Harris County, Texas. Our results highlight the value of using human mobility patterns to better reflect people's actual access behaviors. The proposed E2SFCA-TP measure is more capable of capturing mobility variations in people's access, compared with the traditional E2SFCA measure. This paper provides insights into food store access across space and time, which could aid decision making in resource allocation to enhance accessibility and mitigate the risk of food insecurity in underserved areas.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"342-355"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141793382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Lost needles, pads and where to find them. 丢失的针头和护垫以及在哪里可以找到它们。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17600

Mingming Zhang, Min Gao, Jingwei Wan, Min Liu, Yan Cui, Yu Zhou

{"title":"Lost needles, pads and where to find them.","authors":"Mingming Zhang, Min Gao, Jingwei Wan, Min Liu, Yan Cui, Yu Zhou","doi":"10.1111/risa.17600","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17600","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to assess the frequency and associated factors of surgical \"near-miss\" incidents (NMIs) in neurosurgery using an event reporting system, to inform the development of appropriate interventions. This retrospective study collected reports of NMIs in our hospital's neurosurgery operating room (OR) from January 2019 to January 2022 through an adverse event reporting system and anonymous surveys. We conducted intergroup difference analysis using t-tests and investigated factors contributing to NMIs using Pearson correlation coefficients. We further constructed multinomial logistic regression models to explore the important factors affecting the types of lost objects and search times. A total of 195 NMIs were included in this study, with the primary items lost being 62 brain cotton pads and 133 needles. Statistical analysis revealed that smaller pads (48.4%) and size 3.0 needles (49.6%) were the most commonly missed items, with the longest retrieval times. The likelihood of NMIs occurring was higher for nurses with junior and/or non-neurosurgical backgrounds (needles: 82.7%, pads: 83.9%). Furthermore, factors such as extended working hours, nighttime surgeries, larger incisions, and more surgical instruments all increased the incidence of NMIs. The results of the multinomial logistic regression model showed that the type and search time for lost needles in the OR were jointly influenced by multiple factors (p < 0.05) compared to cotton pads. The occurrence of NMIs is associated with various factors. Reporting NMIs and their causes helps identify solutions before adverse events occur, thereby enhancing patient safety.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"399-408"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141894154","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk assessment of infection of COVID-19 contacts based on scenario simulation. 基于情景模拟的 COVID-19 接触者感染风险评估。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15103

Wei-Wen Zhang, Yan-Ran Huang, Yu-Yuan Wang, Ze-Xi Lu, Jia-Lin Sun, Ming-Xia Jing

{"title":"Risk assessment of infection of COVID-19 contacts based on scenario simulation.","authors":"Wei-Wen Zhang, Yan-Ran Huang, Yu-Yuan Wang, Ze-Xi Lu, Jia-Lin Sun, Ming-Xia Jing","doi":"10.1111/risa.15103","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15103","url":null,"abstract":"We constructed a rapid infection risk assessment model for contacts of COVID-19. The improved Wells-Riley model was used to estimate the probability of infection for contacts of COVID-19 in the same place and evaluate their risk grades. We used COVID-19 outbreaks that were documented to validate the accuracy of the model. We analyzed the relationship between controllable factors and infection probability and constructed common scenarios to analyze the infection risk of contacts in different scenarios. The model showed the robustness of the fitting (mean relative error = 5.89%, mean absolute error = 2.03%, root mean squared error = 2.03%, R2 = 0.991). We found that improving ventilation from poorly ventilated to naturally ventilated and wearing masks can reduce the probability of infection by about two times. Contacts in places of light activity, loud talking or singing, and heavy exercise, oral breathing (e.g., gyms, KTV, choirs) were at higher risk of infection. The model constructed in this study can quickly and accurately assess the infection risk grades of COVID-19 contacts. Simply opening doors and windows for ventilation can significantly reduce the risk of infection in certain places. The places of light activity, loud talking or singing, and heavy exercise, oral breathing, should pay more attention to prevent and control transmission of the epidemic.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"322-341"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787960/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141793383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing maritime transportation security: A data-driven Bayesian network analysis of terrorist attack risks. 加强海上运输安全：对恐怖袭击风险的数据驱动贝叶斯网络分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15750

Massoud Mohsendokht, Huanhuan Li, Christos Kontovas, Chia-Hsun Chang, Zhuohua Qu, Zaili Yang

{"title":"Enhancing maritime transportation security: A data-driven Bayesian network analysis of terrorist attack risks.","authors":"Massoud Mohsendokht, Huanhuan Li, Christos Kontovas, Chia-Hsun Chang, Zhuohua Qu, Zaili Yang","doi":"10.1111/risa.15750","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15750","url":null,"abstract":"Maritime terrorist accidents have a significant low-frequency-high-consequence feature and, thus, require new research to address the associated inherent uncertainty and the scarce literature in the field. This article aims to develop a novel method for maritime security risk analysis. It employs real accident data from maritime terrorist attacks over the past two decades to train a data-driven Bayesian network (DDBN) model. The findings help pinpoint key contributing factors, scrutinize their interdependencies, ascertain the probability of different terrorist scenarios, and describe their impact on different manifestations of maritime terrorism. The established DDBN model undergoes a thorough verification and validation process employing various techniques, such as sensitivity, metrics, and comparative analyses. Additionally, it is tested against recent real-world cases to demonstrate its effectiveness in both retrospective and prospective risk propagation, encompassing both diagnostic and predictive capabilities. These findings provide valuable insights for the various stakeholders, including companies and government bodies, fostering comprehension of maritime terrorism and potentially fortifying preventive measures and emergency management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"283-306"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787954/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141734988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital twins as a security risk? 数字双胞胎会带来安全风险吗？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15749

Seth Guikema, Roger Flage

引用次数: 0

Risk science and politics: What is and should be the relationship? 风险科学与政治：两者之间的关系是什么？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16558

Terje Aven

引用次数: 0

Failure risk management: adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions. 故障风险管理：自适应性能控制和任务中止决策。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16709

Qingan Qiu, Rong Li, Xian Zhao

{"title":"Failure risk management: adaptive performance control and mission abort decisions.","authors":"Qingan Qiu, Rong Li, Xian Zhao","doi":"10.1111/risa.16709","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16709","url":null,"abstract":"The failure behavior of safety-critical systems typically depends on the system performance level, which offers opportunities to control system failure risk through dynamic performance adjustment. Moreover, mission abort serves as an intuitive way to mitigate safety hazards during mission execution. Our study focuses on systems that execute successive missions with random durations. To balance mission completion probability and system failure risk, we examine two decision problems: when to abort missions and how to select the performance level prior to mission abort. Our objective is to maximize the expected revenue through dynamic performance control and mission abort (PCMA) decisions. We consider condition-based PCMA decisions and formulate the joint optimization problem into a Markov decision process. We establish the monotonicity and concavity of the value function. Based on this insight, we show that optimizing the mission abort policy requires a series of control limits. In addition, we provide conditions under which the performance control policies are monotone. For comparative purposes, we analytically evaluate the performances of some heuristic policies. Finally, we present a case study involving unmanned aerial vehicles executing power line inspections. The results indicate the superiority of our proposed risk control policies in enhancing operational performance for safety-critical systems. Dynamic performance adjustment and mission abort decisions provide opportunities to reduce the failure risk and increase operational rewards of safety-critical systems.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"421-440"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141898129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0