Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: A study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland.","authors":"Philip A Ebert, David L Miller, David A Comerford, Mark Diggins","doi":"10.1111/risa.70016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70016","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We investigate Scottish end users' and professional forecasters' risk perception in relation to the 5-point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical estimates of the probability of triggering an avalanche. Our main findings are that neither end users nor professional forecasters interpret the avalanche danger scale as intended, that is, in an exponential fashion. Second, we find that numerical interpretations by end users and professional forecasters have high variance, but are similar, in that both groups tend to overestimate the probability of triggering an avalanche and underestimate the relative risk increase. Finally, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of triggering an avalanche relative to a low or moderate avalanche danger level, and in the numerical interpretation of verbal probability terms depending on whether respondents provide their estimates using a frequency or a percentage chance format. We summarize our findings by identifying important lessons to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143606240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Should I stay or should I go? Leveraging data-driven approaches to explore the effect of various disaster policies on postearthquake household relocation decision-making.","authors":"Chenbo Wang, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso","doi":"10.1111/risa.70007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70007","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Devastating earthquakes can cause affected households to relocate. Postearthquake relocation disrupts impacted households' social ties and, in some instances, their access to affordable services. Simulation-based approaches that model postearthquake relocation decision-making can be valuable tools for supporting the development of related disaster risk reduction (DRR) policies. Yet, existing versions of these models focus particularly on housing-related factors, which are not the sole driver of postearthquake relocation. We integrate data-driven approaches and local data to account for postearthquake household relocation decision-making within an existing simulation-based framework for policy-related risk-sensitive decision support on future urban development. We use household survey data related to the 2015 Gorkha earthquakes in Nepal to develop a random forest model that estimates the postearthquake relocation inclination of disaster-affected households. The developed model holistically captures various context-specific factors important to postearthquake household relocation decision-making. We leverage the framework to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of various DRR policies in reducing positive postearthquake relocation inclination, with an explicit focus on low-income households. We demonstrate it using \"Tomorrowville,\" a hypothetical expanding urban extent that reflects important social and physical characteristics of Kathmandu, Nepal. Our analyses suggest that the provision of livelihood assistance funds is more successful when it comes to mitigating positive postearthquake relocation inclination than hard policies focused on strengthening buildings (at least in the context of the examined case study). They also suggest viable pro-poor pathways for mitigating disaster relocation impacts without the need to create potentially politically sensitive income-based restrictions on policy remits.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143606243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for resilience assessment of transportation networks exposed to geohazard threats.","authors":"Chao Fang, Mingce Wang, Haoran Fu, Yanze Chu, Enrico Zio","doi":"10.1111/risa.70014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70014","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The increased frequency of rainfall-triggered geohazards has led to more disruptions of transportation networks in recent years. This study proposes an integrated framework for resilience assessment of transportation networks, where the highway disruption scenarios are simulated using a traffic model and a developed geohazard threat model based on real-world datasets. In the framework, we provide a resilience-oriented indicator that integrates traffic flow and geohazard threat, upon which to identify critical elements of the highway network and the geohazard-prone sites. To enhance the performance of the highway network under disruptions, we design multiple strategies including reinforcing highway segments and preventing potential geohazards. We apply the proposed approach to a realistic case study of the highway network of Shaanxi province in China. The results of the analysis demonstrate the validity and reliability of the resilience-oriented indicator, and illustrate that a mixture of reinforcement strategies provides better improvement in system performance under scenarios with different traffic demand level.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery.","authors":"Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du","doi":"10.1111/risa.70013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70013","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Mitigating the risks posed by natural disasters has become a pressing public concern due to their increasingly frequent and intense occurrences, which threaten human lives and socio-economic development. External assistance (EA), as a common form of support for post-disaster reconstruction, has been recognized as significant in several studies. However, the lack of an assessment method has made it unclear to what extent economic recovery can be affected by EA. To address this problem, we adopt the flood footprint as an indicator and improve the flood footprint model by combining it with the consideration of EA. The purpose is to quantify the economic impact of EA on post-disaster recovery. In a successful application case of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan disaster in Hainan province, China, we have validated the feasibility and flexibility of our approach. We found that EA, which accounted for 2.4% of direct economic losses, resulted in a 7.31% reduction of indirect economic losses in the Hainan case. These findings indicate that EA positively impacts short-term economic risk reduction, despite its complex influence on the overall economy. Furthermore, through scenario analysis on alternative EA schemes, we discuss that the ration scheme is a significant factor in determining EA's impact. Policymakers can minimize the indirect flood footprint and facilitate post-disaster economic recovery by implementing alternative EA schemes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis.","authors":"Kendrick Hardaway, Roger Flage","doi":"10.1111/risa.70009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70009","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Risk assessment can be used to evaluate the risks of complex systems and emerging technologies, such as the human-climate nexus and automation technologies, and to inform pathways and policies. Due to the interconnected and evolutionary features of such topics, risk analysts must navigate the dynamics of changing assumptions and probabilities in the risk assessment. However, the current risk analysis approach neglects to a large extent an explicit consideration of these dynamics, either oversimplifying complex systems or neglecting the likely human response to emerging technologies. In this article, we outline why the evolutionary dynamics of assumptions and probabilities in a risk assessment must receive close attention, and then we provide a possible framework through which to consider the dynamics. Ultimately, we propose a formal approach to conceptualizing and implementing the risk description with respect to feedback loops and complex adaptive systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Information value versus flexibility cost: Comparison of dual sourcing and artificial intelligence sourcing for resilient supply.","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Zebin Zheng, Lingfeng Wang","doi":"10.1111/risa.70005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70005","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In global trade practices, varying inspection and quarantine standards frequently cause import disruptions. To manage such customs risk, artificial intelligence (AI)-based intelligent sourcing strategy and traditional dual-sourcing strategy are two widely used strategies to guarantee supply resilience. In this study, we formulate the main trade-offs to adopt AI sourcing, including the information analytics value, the increased flexibility cost, and the altered competition/cooperation structure among the stakeholders. We find that the importer would prefer the AI-sourcing strategy when the customs disruption probability is high, and the local production cost is moderate. Moreover, the cost-efficiency of the AI-sourcing strategy is usually lower than the expectation due to the supplier's pricing behavior. When it comes to the resilience indicator evaluation, we find that, surprisingly, the importer is more likely to be cost-oriented rather than resilience-oriented. Therefore, pursuing resilience cannot be always attractive but low cost can. Even though the advent of AI sourcing will not change this insight.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143543261","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Shared sanitation facilities and risk of respiratory virus transmission in resource-poor settings: A COVID-19 modeling case study.","authors":"Michael A L Hayashi, Sophia M Simon, Kaiyue Zou, Hannah Van Wyk, Mondal Hasan Zahid, Joseph N S Eisenberg, Matthew C Freeman","doi":"10.1111/risa.17633","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17633","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Water supply and sanitation are essential household services frequently shared in resource-poor settings. Shared sanitation can increase the risk of enteric pathogen transmission due to suboptimal cleanliness of facilities used by large numbers of individuals. It also can potentially increase the risk of respiratory disease transmission. As sanitation is an essential need, shared sanitation facilities may act as important respiratory pathogen transmission venues even with strict control measures such as stay-at-home recommendations in place. This analysis explores how behavioral and infrastructural conditions surrounding shared sanitation may individually and interactively influence respiratory pathogen transmission. We developed an individual-based community transmission model using COVID-19 as a motivating example parameterized from empirical literature to explore how transmission in shared latrines interacts with transmission at the community level. We explored mitigation strategies, including infrastructural and behavioral interventions. Our review of empirical literature confirms that shared sanitation venues in resource-poor settings are relatively small with poor ventilation and high use patterns. In these contexts, shared sanitation facilities may act as strong drivers of respiratory disease transmission, especially in areas reliant on shared facilities. Decreasing dependence on shared latrines was most effective at attenuating sanitation-associated transmission. Improvements to latrine ventilation and handwashing behavior were also able to decrease transmission. The type and order of interventions are important in successfully attenuating disease risk, with infrastructural and engineering controls being most effective when administered first, followed by behavioral controls after successful attenuation of sufficient alternate transmission routes. Beyond COVID-19, our modeling framework can be extended to address water, sanitation, and hygiene measures targeted at a range of environmentally mediated infectious diseases.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"638-652"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954722/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Cultural values, risk characteristics, and risk perceptions of controversial issues: How does cultural theory work?","authors":"Ianis Chassang, Odile Rohmer, Bruno Chauvin","doi":"10.1111/risa.17636","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17636","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Cultural theory and the psychometric paradigm are two frameworks proposed to explain risk perceptions, mostly used independently of each other. On the one hand, psychometric research identified key characteristics of hazards responsible for their level of perceived riskiness. On the other hand, cultural studies provided evidence that different worldviews lead to divergent perceptions of risk in a way supportive of individuals' cultural values. The purpose of this research was to combine both approaches into mediational models in which cultural values impact risk perceptions of controversial hazards through their influence on the characteristics associated with those hazards. Using data from an online survey completed by 629 French participants, findings indicated specific associations between cultural values and risk characteristics, both of them exhibiting effects on risk perceptions that depend largely on hazardous issues. More specifically, we found that people confer specific characteristics on hazards (common or dreadful, beneficial or costly, affecting few or many people), depending on whether they are hierarchists-individualists, egalitarians, or fatalists; in turn, such characteristics have an impact on the perceived riskiness of hazards such as cannabis, social movement, global warming, genetically modified organisms, nuclear power, public transportation, and coronavirus. Finally, this article discussed the interest of addressing the mechanisms that explain how cultural values shape individuals' perceptions of risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"682-700"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954724/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk management during times of health uncertainty in Spain: A qualitative analysis of ethical challenges.","authors":"Ignacio Macpherson, Juan J Guardia, Isabel Morales, Belén Zárate, Ignasi Belda, Wendy R Simon","doi":"10.1111/risa.17638","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17638","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The study examines the reflections of various experts in risk management when asked about uncertainty generated by a health threat and the response to such a threat: what criteria should guide action when potential harm is anticipated, but not known with certainty? The objective of the research is to obtain a holistic perspective of ethical conflicts in risk management, based on experts' accounts within the Spanish territory. A qualitative study was conducted through semi-structured interviews with 27 experts from various fields related to health risk management and its ethical implications, following the grounded theory method. The method includes theory generation through an inductive approach, based on the identified categories. The 27 narratives obtained revealed a variety of fundamental issues grouped into 8 subcategories and subsequently grouped into three main categories. The first category focuses on human vulnerability in health matters. The second category explores the agents and instruments for decision-making that arise from uncertain or traumatic social events. The third category refers to the need for common ethical paradigms for all humanity that implement justice over universal values. A main theory was suggested on the concept of responsibility in a global common good. There is an urgent need to assume this integrative responsibility as an inherent strategy in decision-making. To achieve this, the involved actors must acquire specific humanistic training, conceptualizing fundamental ethical principles, and emphasizing skills more related to humanistic virtues than technical knowledge.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"710-721"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954723/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142111568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A new end-user-oriented and dynamic approach to post-disaster resilience quantification for individual facilities.","authors":"Gemma Cremen","doi":"10.1111/risa.17637","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17637","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Community recovery from a disaster is a complex process, in which the importance of different types of infrastructure functionality can change over time. Most of the myriad of metrics available for measuring disaster resilience do not capture the dynamic importance of functionality explicitly, however. This means that very different recovery trajectories of a given infrastructure can correspond to the same resilience value, regardless of variations in its utility over time. While some efforts have been made to integrate features of time dependency into individual facility resilience quantification, the resulting metrics either capture only a limited set of temporal instances throughout the post-disaster phase or do not offer a way to prioritize time steps in line with variations in the importance of facility functionality. This study proposes a novel, straightforward metric for component-level post-disaster resilience quantification that overcomes the aforementioned limitations. The metric involves a dynamic weighting component that enables stakeholders to place varying emphasis on different temporal points throughout the recovery process. The end-user-centered approach to resilience quantification facilitated by the metric allows for flexible, context-specific interpretations of infrastructure functionality importance that may vary across different communities. The metric is demonstrated through a hypothetical case study of infrastructure facilities with varying degrees of importance across the post-disaster recovery period, which showcases its versatility relative to a previously well-established measurement of component-level resilience. The proposed metric has significant potential for use in stakeholder-driven approaches to decision making on critical infrastructure (as well as other types of built environment) recovery and resilience.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"701-709"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954729/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142036804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}