Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets.","authors":"Guo-Liang Zheng, Jian-Yu Wu, Tong Zhang, Hua Liao","doi":"10.1111/risa.70312","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70312","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Solar radiation modification (SRM) provides an additional cooling option for limiting warming, but uncertainties about its realized cooling outcomes challenge the robustness of temperature-target strategies. This study develops an SRM decision framework that is robust in achieving the temperature target by embedding the min-max regret (MMR) rule into an integrated assessment model. We evaluate SRM strategies under uncertainty in cooling efficiency, SRM-related damages, and climate sensitivity. The results show that policies designed for adverse cooling-response states can better avoid temperature-target failure but generate great welfare losses from over-deployment. The MMR-based strategy exhibits distinct phasing, with restrained deployment before mid-century and accelerated deployment thereafter. Sensitivity analyses show that this two-phase pattern remains robust across alternative uncertainty sets. Overall, the robust framework balances the risk of temperature-target failure against the welfare cost of over-deployment under persistent uncertainties.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70312"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13396980/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148580027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coastal Flood Risk Governance in Newfoundland, Canada: A Multidimensional Analysis of Assessment, Management, and Communication.","authors":"Md Rana Parvez, Sumi Akter","doi":"10.1111/risa.70327","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70327","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Coastal communities in Newfoundland, Canada, face significant and escalating flood risks due to heavy precipitation, coastal storms, and climate change impacts, positioning the region as highly vulnerable despite existing mitigation efforts. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of coastal flood risk governance in Newfoundland, drawing upon a qualitative review of secondary literature, including academic studies, government reports, and policy documents. The analysis is structured around five crucial components of risk governance: interdisciplinary risk estimation (encompassing risk assessment and concern assessment), risk characterization and evaluation, risk management (including monitoring, prevention, protection, preparedness, and mitigation), and risk communication. Findings reveal that although Newfoundland employs various tools for hazard identification (e.g., LiDAR, hydrological models) and vulnerability assessment, challenges persist in data resolution, equitable resource distribution, and consistent public engagement. Effective risk management integrates structural and nonstructural measures, emphasizing continuous monitoring and adaptive planning. Furthermore, robust risk communication strategies, involving scientific experts and credible information sources, are vital for fostering public awareness and shared responsibilities. The study concludes that an integrated, adaptive, and collaborative governance framework that prioritizes equity and community resilience represents a theoretically grounded and conceptually promising pathway to mitigate future flood risks and enhance the well-being of Newfoundland's coastal populations, though empirical validation of this proposition through primary research remains a necessary next step.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70327"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13434198/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148670611","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mathematical Modeling of Viral RNA Copies in Indoor Environments: Pre-Processor for Risk Assessment and Decision-Making Support Tool for Public Health.","authors":"Seungjae Gwak, Seongmin Cho, David Y H Pui, Dong-Bin Kwak","doi":"10.1111/risa.70318","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70318","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Quantifying human exposure to airborne respiratory viruses is essential for infection risk assessment modeling and evidence-based infection control policies. However, accurate size and time resolved estimates of airborne viral RNA copies in indoor spaces are often hindered by existing models that compress complex droplet physics into too simplified processes. Therefore, we present a size-resolved framework that couples saliva-specific evaporation and residue formation with gravitational settling to compute airborne viral RNA covering 1-2000 µm under varied temperature, relative humidity, and ambient pressure (101.325 and 75.3 kPa). Our framework also combines particle volume contribution considering saliva mass uncertainty, viral load, viral half-life, exhalation mechanisms (talking, coughing, sneezing), and ventilation effects. Under literature-based half-life inputs and volume-proportional RNA allocation, viral load and size-resolved airborne lifetime dominated the simulated RNA-copy trends, although the role of viral half-life may vary if RNA decay differs from infectivity decay or if viral RNA concentrates in long-suspended fine aerosols. Talking dominates persistence of airborne RNA copies since coughing and sneezing produce larger droplets that settle quickly. Also, model predictions are compared with hospital air-sampling datasets. The 50-percentile of saliva mass provides the closest match, with most samples falling within roughly one order of magnitude and central tendency close to unbiased. Our model is designed to serve as (1) pre-processor that supplies inputs for infection-risk assessment modeling studies and (2) decision-making support tool, facilitating public-health intervention. Therefore, we also provide an online web tool that allows users to directly adjust inputs and immediately analyze scenario-specific outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70318"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13420807/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148621093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Systems-Based Approach for Analyzing Interorganizational Coordination Within Port Risk Control Structures.","authors":"Elvira Meléndez, Floris Goerlandt","doi":"10.1111/risa.70325","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70325","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study proposes a systems-based analysis approach for analyzing interorganizational coordination in complex sociotechnical systems through the interorganizational risk management coordination taxonomy (IRM-CT). Unlike traditional risk-analysis approaches that primarily focus on intraorganizational controls, probabilistic assessment, or component reliability, the IRM-CT operationalizes interorganizational coordination as a systemic control problem embedded within distributed governance and feedback structures. Building on the STAMP-based Port Risk Control Structure (PRCS), the IRM-CT distinguishes between operational adaptors, which enact coordination in practice, and enabling adaptors, which provide the structural, procedural, and relational conditions that sustain coordination across organizational boundaries. The approach integrates coordination theory, sociotechnical systems thinking, and resilience engineering, embedding coordination within control and feedback loops and evaluating adaptor configurations through three system value conditions: accountability, predictability, and common understanding. A proof-of-concept analysis using the Halifax Port Authority Port Information Guide demonstrates how the IRM-CT identifies adaptor configurations, diagnoses \"Supported,\" \"Fragile,\" and \"Orphan\" coordination states, and evaluates their contribution to accountability, predictability, and common understanding. The IRM-CT advances systemic risk governance by revealing how authority, codification, and trust interact to sustain safe control. Beyond ports, the proposed approach may be applicable to high-risk sectors such as mining, aviation, and energy, offering a structured means for diagnosing and strengthening interorganizational coordination.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70325"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13454503/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148701736","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mapping Human-AI Teaming in Risk Analysis: Role Evolution, Thematic Landscape, and Governance Mechanisms From News Media.","authors":"Cong Cheng, Jian Dai, Lulu Yan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70324","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70324","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Human-artificial intelligence (AI) teams are increasingly embedded in risk analysis, yet news reports repeatedly portray meaningful oversight as fragile when review conditions are poorly designed. This study examines how public discourse has portrayed the roles, failure modes, and governance mechanisms of human-AI teaming in risk analysis. Drawing on 184,282 AI-related Factiva news articles (1956-2025), we use a funnel-shaped mixed-methods design to identify 3571 articles describing human-AI interaction in risk-analytic contexts. Structural topic modeling identifies 20 thematic clusters and their temporal and cross-domain dynamics, whereas LLM-assisted inductive thematic analysis produces five mirror-mapped pairs of failure modes and governance mechanisms: opacity and explainability, bias and auditing, agency erosion and cognitive friction, systemic fragility and oversight and liability, and accountability vacuums and institutional governance. The analysis shows that media discourse often follows an AI-predicts-human-decides paradigm and portrays formal human-in-the-loop requirements as insufficient without deliberate interaction design.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70324"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13438684/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148674007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Wells-Riley Model Revisited II: Parameter Uncertainty and Population Heterogeneity.","authors":"Marcus Marshall, Alexander J Edwards, Dominique Pinnell, Marco-Felipe King, Catherine J Noakes, Nazif Elaldi, Grant Lythe, Martín López-García","doi":"10.1111/risa.70272","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70272","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this work, we revisit the Wells-Riley model, which has been widely used to estimate airborne infection risk in indoor settings. In particular, we consider a probabilistic (i.e., \"stochastic\") framework of the Wells-Riley model which allows one to quantify infection risk in terms of the per-capita probability of infection for each susceptible individual, as well as the probability distribution of the number of infections (here referred to as \"exposures\") during the indoor interaction. Directly extending the work by Edwards, King, Noakes et al. (2024), we consider here the situation where the main parameters in the Wells-Riley model (namely, the quanta generation rate <math><semantics><mi>q</mi> <annotation>$q$</annotation></semantics> </math> , the ventilation rate <math><semantics><mi>Q</mi> <annotation>$Q$</annotation></semantics> </math> , the number of infectors <math><semantics><mi>I</mi> <annotation>$I$</annotation></semantics> </math> , or the duration of the indoor interaction <math><semantics><mi>T</mi> <annotation>$T$</annotation></semantics> </math> ) may be random or uncertain. We show how, in this case, the per-capita infection risk <math> <semantics><msub><mi>P</mi> <mrow><mi>i</mi> <mi>n</mi> <mi>f</mi> <mi>e</mi> <mi>c</mi> <mi>t</mi> <mi>i</mi> <mi>o</mi> <mi>n</mi></mrow> </msub> <annotation>$P_{infection}$</annotation></semantics> </math> becomes a random variable between 0 and 1, and compute its density function under some parametric assumptions. This allows for a comprehensive analytical quantification of uncertainty when dealing with heterogeneous populations, uncertain environmental conditions, or stochastic human behavior. Our results reveal that infection risk can vary significantly depending on the distribution and variability of model parameters. In particular, using mean parameter values in the classical Wells-Riley model can lead to systematic inaccuracies: Uncertainty in <math><semantics><mi>q</mi> <annotation>$q$</annotation></semantics> </math> , <math><semantics><mi>T</mi> <annotation>$T$</annotation></semantics> </math> , or <math><semantics><mi>b</mi> <annotation>$b$</annotation></semantics> </math> leads to infection risk overestimation, while environmental stochasticity (i.e., uncertainty in ventilation or removal rates) can lead to infection risk underestimation. We also investigate which parameter mainly drives the uncertainty in infection risk when two model parameters are simultaneously random.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70272"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13376729/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148472555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Labor Supply, Risk Aversion, and Conflict Uncertainty.","authors":"Kiet Tuan Duong, Nam T Vu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70308","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70308","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We argue that the presence of conflict uncertainty fundamentally re-frames the labor-leisure choice for individual agents. During normal times, supplying labor is often perceived as a safe choice. When working itself becomes perceived as a gamble due to conflict risk, an aversion to that specific risk will result in a measurable decrease in labor supply. Using proximity to the Ukrainian border as a plausibly exogenous proxy for conflict uncertainty vis-à-vis the Russian incursion into Ukraine in 2014, we show that an increase in conflict uncertainty negatively affects individuals' willingness to work. Moreover, this response also coincides with increased perceived risk aversion arising from the conflict.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70308"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13366054/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148437751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring the Psychological Mechanism of Passengers Adhering to Emergency Evacuation Signs During Subway Fire Emergencies: An Application of the Protective Action Decision Model and the Heuristic-Systematic Model.","authors":"Bian Yang, Zhao Xuena, Zhao Xiaohua, Zhang Yu, Liu Zhuoran","doi":"10.1111/risa.70281","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70281","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In emergency evacuation scenarios, ensuring the safe and prompt evacuation of passengers is of utmost importance. Although emergency evacuation signs hold significant meaning, passengers often hesitate to comply with them during emergencies. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the psychological decision-making process that passengers undergo in these critical situations. This study focuses on subway fire emergencies and examines the psychological decision-making mechanisms influencing passengers' evacuation sign compliance (ESC) intention. To achieve this, a psychological mechanism framework model based on the protection action decision model (PADM) and the heuristic-systematic model (HSM) is constructed. The study adopts a questionnaire survey to establish a structural equation model for passengers' ESC intention, followed by mediation and moderation analyses of the predictive factors. The research findings reveal that passengers' ESC intention is positively correlated with risk perception (RP), hazard-related attributes, information seeking (IS), and systematic information processing (SIP), while being negatively associated with resource-related attribute (RRA) perception. The mediation analysis indicates that both IS and SIP act as mediators in the relationship between RP and ESC intention. Furthermore, SIP serves as a mediator between IS and ESC intention. The moderation analysis demonstrates that the importance of RRAs intensifies the negative association between RRAs and ESC intention. This research enhances our understanding of the psychological mechanisms underlying passengers' ESC intention and provides practical suggestions for subway engineering design and emergency management.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70281"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13373999/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148472561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Risk Without Values: Including Indigenous Perspectives in Climate Risk Assessments.","authors":"Marcelle Scadden, George W Warren, Darcy Glenn, Lily George, Tom M Logan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70309","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70309","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate risk assessments (CRAs) increasingly acknowledge Indigenous communities as disproportionately exposed to climate change, yet they rarely engage Indigenous perspectives as distinct ways of understanding risk. In a thematic review of CRAs self-submitted to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) by English-speaking international cities, we examined how Indigenous perspectives, values, and worldviews are represented. Although many reports recognized unequal exposure, few addressed the structural sources of inequity or differences in how risk, consequence, and adaptation are conceptualized. Indigenous knowledge and sociocultural dimensions were typically incorporated within prevailing technocratic frameworks rather than recognized as alternative risk framings. As a result, Indigenous perspectives were translated into dominant institutional paradigms instead of shaping the conceptual foundations of assessment itself. These findings suggest that procedural inclusion is insufficient. Meaningful engagement requires climate risk frameworks capable of accommodating relational, place-based, and Indigenous understandings of risk, rather than subsuming them within existing models.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70309"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13352453/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148423787","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"What if the Risk Manager is Malevolent?","authors":"Zachary A Collier, Tiana Kaleeva","doi":"10.1111/risa.70307","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70307","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Risk is a fundamental aspect of human endeavors, and risk managers serve an indispensable role within organizations and society. Risk managers engage in identification, assessment, communication, and control of numerous types of risks. These activities support decision-making about the relative benefits and risks of various courses of action in the pursuit of organizational or societal objectives. Risk managers, in their role as advisors on topics that potentially could result in negative outcomes, play an important part in risk-based decision-making. This perspective paper explores the situation in which the risk manager is not a neutral provider of risk-related information but rather is actively malevolent, seeking to cause losses and mayhem by intentionally weaponizing the risk management process itself. We discuss the general role of the risk manager as well as how malevolence can manifest itself within a risk management context. Two brief vignettes on flood risk management and financial portfolio management are given to illustrate the potential impacts of a malevolent risk manager. Finally, we offer some potential countermeasures, attempting to answer the question, \"Who manages the risks of the risk managers?\"</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"46 8","pages":"e70307"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0,"publicationDate":"2026-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC13347201/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148412773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}