Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-06-05 DOI:10.1111/risa.70056
Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Relief organizations face numerous challenges, such as funding shortfalls, delays in relief operations, and uncertain demand. A single prepositioning inventory strategy (e.g., stockpiles or supply contract) does not provide an effective solution to these challenges. Therefore, we propose a prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy that combines stockpiles, supply contracts with suppliers, and insurance agreements for relief organizations. A deterministic model for the proposed strategy is established along with the objective of maximizing cost-effectiveness. We establish two benchmark models: one combining stockpiles with supply contract and the other combining stockpiles with catastrophe insurance. Then, we compare the relief performance of maximizing cost-effectiveness with minimizing economic costs and minimizing social costs in the proposed strategy. Two-stage robust optimization models are established to address disaster uncertainties. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is designed to solve robust models, and the Charnes-Cooper transform method is used to transform the fractional objective to an integrated objective. The results of two case studies in Dali and Zhaotong, China, show that the proposed strategy with maximizing cost-effectiveness leads to the acquisition of a moderate amount of insurance with options purchased in quantities that are larger than the stockpiles. Compared with the two benchmark strategies, the proposed strategy can improve cost-effectiveness and achieve cost reduction, especially in years with large disasters. In addition, the objectives of minimizing economic costs and social costs emphasize overly conservative prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategies, while the optimization results of maximizing cost-effectiveness show robustness when facing disasters with various severities.

通过整合库存、供应合同和保险,最大限度地提高救灾预置库存和资金保证策略的成本效益。
救援组织面临着许多挑战,如资金短缺、救援行动延误和需求不确定等。单一的预置库存策略(例如,库存或供应合同)并不能有效地解决这些挑战。因此,我们提出了一种预置库存和资金保证策略,该策略结合了库存、与供应商的供应合同和救济组织的保险协议。以成本效益最大化为目标,建立了该策略的确定性模型。建立了库存与供给合同相结合的基准模型和库存与巨灾保险相结合的基准模型。然后,我们比较了成本效益最大化与经济成本最小化和社会成本最小化的救济效果。针对灾害不确定性,建立了两阶段鲁棒优化模型。设计了求解鲁棒模型的列约束生成算法,采用Charnes-Cooper变换方法将分数目标转化为积分目标。中国大理和昭通的两个案例研究结果表明,成本效益最大化策略导致购买适量保险,购买期权的数量大于库存。与两种基准策略相比,本文提出的策略可以提高成本效益,实现成本降低,特别是在灾害较大的年份。此外,经济成本和社会成本最小化的目标强调过于保守的库存预置和资金保障策略,而成本效益最大化的优化结果在面对不同严重程度的灾害时表现出鲁棒性。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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