Risk Analysis最新文献_第3页

Conceptualizing social risk in relation to climate change and assisted ecosystem adaptation. 与气候变化和辅助生态系统适应有关的社会风险概念化。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17635

Stewart Lockie, Victoria Graham, Bruce Taylor, Umberto Baresi, Kirsten Maclean, Gillian Paxton, Karen Vella

引用次数: 0

Research on the water-ground multimodal transport emergency scheduling model and decision-making method considering the actual road network inundation situation. 考虑实际路网淹没情况的水陆联运应急调度模型及决策方法研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17450

Yan Song, Baiqing Sun, Yunwu Han, Zhenming Xing

{"title":"Research on the water-ground multimodal transport emergency scheduling model and decision-making method considering the actual road network inundation situation.","authors":"Yan Song, Baiqing Sun, Yunwu Han, Zhenming Xing","doi":"10.1111/risa.17450","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17450","url":null,"abstract":"As urbanization continues to accelerate worldwide, urban flooding is becoming increasingly destructive, making it important to improve emergency scheduling capabilities. Compared to other scheduling problems, the urban flood emergency rescue scheduling problem is more complicated. Considering the impact of a disaster on the road network passability, a single type of vehicle cannot complete all rescue tasks. A reasonable combination of multiple vehicle types for cooperative rescue can improve the efficiency of rescue tasks. This study focuses on the urban flood emergency rescue scheduling problem considering the actual road network inundation situation. First, the progress and shortcomings of related research are analyzed. Then, a four-level emergency transportation network based on the collaborative water-ground multimodal transport transshipment mode is established. It is shown that the transshipment points have random locations and quantities according to the actual inundation situation. Subsequently, an interactive model based on hierarchical optimization is constructed considering the travel length, travel time, and waiting time as hierarchical optimization objectives. Next, an improved A* algorithm based on the quantity of specific extension nodes is proposed, and a scheduling scheme decision-making algorithm is proposed based on the improved A* and greedy algorithms. Finally, the proposed decision-making algorithm is applied in a practical example for solving and comparative analysis, and the results show that the improved A* algorithm is faster and more accurate. The results also verify the effectiveness of the scheduling model and decision-making algorithm. Finally, a scheduling scheme with the shortest travel time for the proposed emergency scheduling problem is obtained.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"600-622"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142018442","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term. 二氧化碳排放与环境风险：长期和短期。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-20 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14281

Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu, Yaosong Zhan

{"title":"Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term.","authors":"Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu, Yaosong Zhan","doi":"10.1111/risa.14281","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14281","url":null,"abstract":"The world is currently experiencing the environmental challenge of global warming, necessitating careful planning of carbon dioxide ( <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> ) emissions to deal with this problem. This study examines the environmental challenge posed by <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions. However, this study shows that <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions quickly returned to normal levels after a brief downturn, and we provide information on the order of <math> <semantics><msub><mi>CO</mi> <mn>2</mn></msub> <annotation>${rm{CO}}_2$</annotation></semantics> </math> emissions recovery for different sectors.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"523-543"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139906369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk modelling of ESG (environmental, social, and governance), healthcare, and financial sectors. ESG(环境、社会和治理)、医疗保健和金融部门的风险建模。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2023-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14195

Sajid M Chaudhry, Xihui Haviour Chen, Rizwan Ahmed, Muhammad Ali Nasir

{"title":"Risk modelling of ESG (environmental, social, and governance), healthcare, and financial sectors.","authors":"Sajid M Chaudhry, Xihui Haviour Chen, Rizwan Ahmed, Muhammad Ali Nasir","doi":"10.1111/risa.14195","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14195","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change poses enormous ecological, socio-economic, health, and financial challenges. A novel extreme value theory is employed in this study to model the risk to environmental, social, and governance (ESG), healthcare, and financial sectors and assess their downside risk, extreme systemic risk, and extreme spillover risk. We use a rich set of global daily data of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2022 in the case of healthcare and financial sectors and from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2022 in the case of ESG sector. We find that the financial sector is the riskiest when we consider the tail index, tail quantile, and tail expected shortfall. However, the ESG sector exhibits the highest tail risk in the extreme environment when we consider a shock in the form of an ETF drop of 25% or 50%. The ESG sector poses the highest extreme systemic risk when a shock comes from China. Finally, we find that ESG and healthcare sectors have lower extreme spillover risk (contagion risk) compared to the financial sector. Our study seeks to provide valuable insights for developing sustainable economic, business, and financial strategies. To achieve this, we conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of the ESG, healthcare, and financial sectors, employing an innovative approach to risk modelling in response to ecological challenges.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"477-495"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954727/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10209399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Sustainability risk management: Exploring the role of artificial intelligence capabilities through an information-processing lens. 可持续性风险管理：从信息处理角度探索人工智能能力的作用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17448

Kai Yuan Kong, Kum Fai Yuen

{"title":"Sustainability risk management: Exploring the role of artificial intelligence capabilities through an information-processing lens.","authors":"Kai Yuan Kong, Kum Fai Yuen","doi":"10.1111/risa.17448","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17448","url":null,"abstract":"The global sustainability movement is reshaping the operational requirements and managerial approaches of maritime firms, resulting in the emergence of unprecedented and complex risks in the sector. This has driven maritime firms to leverage digital tools, such as artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities, to enhance their sustainability risk management (SRM) endeavors. Drawing on the organizational information-processing theory (OIPT), this study proposes four AI capabilities: customer value proposition, key process optimization, key resource optimization, and societal good. It examines their influence on sustainability-related knowledge management capabilities (SKMC), stakeholder engagement, and SRM. A survey questionnaire was used to gather responses from 157 maritime professionals across various sectors of the industry, providing empirical data for analysis. Employing structural equation modeling, the findings reveal that AI capabilities can improve SKMC. These findings enhance existing literature by using OIPT concepts to investigate the interplay among the constructs that lead to better SRM in maritime firms. Furthermore, the study offers managerial guidance by providing insights into AI capabilities that maritime firms should incorporate into their operations, fostering best practices to effectively manage sustainability risks and ensure the firm's long-term survival.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"563-580"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142047142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risks in the design of regional hydrogen hub systems: A review and commentary. 区域氢气枢纽系统设计中的风险：回顾与评论。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17449

Valerie J Karplus, Ioana Iacob, Emily J Moore, M Granger Morgan

{"title":"Risks in the design of regional hydrogen hub systems: A review and commentary.","authors":"Valerie J Karplus, Ioana Iacob, Emily J Moore, M Granger Morgan","doi":"10.1111/risa.17449","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17449","url":null,"abstract":"Early investments in regional hydrogen systems carry two distinct types of risk: (1) economic risk that projects will not be financially viable, resulting in stranded capital, and (2) environmental risk that projects will not deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through leaks, perhaps even contribute to climate change. This article systematically reviews the literature and performs analysis to describe both types of risk in the context of recent efforts in the United States and worldwide to support the development of \"hydrogen hubs\" or regional systems of hydrogen production and use. We review estimates of hydrogen production costs and projections of how future costs are likely to change over time for different production routes, environmental impacts related to hydrogen and methane leaks, and the availability and effectiveness of carbon capture and sequestration. Finally, we consider system-wide risks associated with evolving regional industrial structures, including job displacement and underinvestment in shared components, such as refueling. We conclude by suggesting a set of design principles that should be applied in developing early hydrogen hubs if they are to be a successful step toward creating a decarbonized energy system.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"581-599"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11954725/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142056384","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk incident analyses in the transportation of anhydrous ammonia as an emerging clean energy resource. 作为新兴清洁能源的无水氨在运输过程中的风险事故分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17634

Md Ferdousul Haque Shikder, Yili Tang, Eman Almehdawe, Jefferson Cruz Araújo

引用次数: 0

Arsenic content and exposure in brown rice compared to white rice in the United States.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70008

Christian Kelly Scott, Felicia Wu

{"title":"Arsenic content and exposure in brown rice compared to white rice in the United States.","authors":"Christian Kelly Scott, Felicia Wu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70008","url":null,"abstract":"Brown rice is often considered a healthy alternative to white rice due to the additional nutrients contained within the rice bran. However, the proposition of improved health outcomes by replacing white rice with brown rice in diets ignores a potential food safety concern: arsenic exposure. In this manuscript, we seek to critically compare potential arsenic exposure and the associated risks between brown and white rice for US populations. Rice bran and brown rice are shown to have a higher arsenic content and inorganic arsenic concentration than the grain endosperm or white rice. Americans who regularly consume brown rice versus white rice were found to have higher estimated arsenic exposures. Because young children consume considerably more food relative to their bodyweights than adults, brown rice consumption in young children was found to more substantially increase foodborne arsenic exposures. However, there are no acute public health risks indicated for the general American population from rice-related arsenic exposures. Risk-benefit analyses are needed to assess relative risks of arsenic exposure in brown rice compared with the nutritional benefits, in comparison to white rice.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143524288","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70003

Emanuele Borgonovo, Manel Baucells, Antonio De Rosa, Elmar Plischke, John Barr, Herschel Rabitz

引用次数: 0

A predictive model for household displacement duration after disasters.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17710

Nicole Paul, Carmine Galasso, Jack Baker, Vitor Silva

{"title":"A predictive model for household displacement duration after disasters.","authors":"Nicole Paul, Carmine Galasso, Jack Baker, Vitor Silva","doi":"10.1111/risa.17710","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17710","url":null,"abstract":"According to recent Household Pulse Survey data, roughly 1.1% of households were displaced due to disasters in the United States in recent years. Although most households returned relatively quickly, 20% were displaced for longer than 1 month, and 14% had not returned by the time of the survey. Protracted displacement creates enormous hardships for affected households and communities, yet few disaster risk analyses account for the time component of displacement. Here, we propose predictive models for household displacement duration and return for practical integration within disaster risk analyses, ranging in complexity and predictive power. Two classification tree models are proposed to predict return outcomes with a minimum number of predictors: one that considers only physical factors (TreeP) and another that also considers socioeconomic factors (TreeP&S). A random forest model is also proposed (ForestP&S), improving the model's predictive power and highlighting the drivers of displacement duration and return outcomes. The results of the ForestP&S model highlight the importance of both physical factors (e.g., property damage and unsanitary conditions) and socioeconomic factors (e.g., tenure status and income per household member) on displacement outcomes. These models can be integrated within disaster risk analyses, as illustrated through a hurricane scenario analysis for Atlantic City, NJ. By integrating displacement duration models within risk analyses, we can capture the human impact of disasters more holistically and evaluate mitigation strategies aimed at reducing displacement risk.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143503745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0