Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Effectiveness of the Ike Dike in mitigating coastal flood risk under multiple climate and sea level rise projections.","authors":"Seokmin Son, Chaoran Xu, Meri Davlasheridze, Ashley D Ross, Jeremy D Bricker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70060","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70060","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In the aftermath of Hurricane Ike in 2008 in the United States, the \"Ike Dike\" was proposed as a coastal barrier system, featuring floodgates, to protect the Houston-Galveston area (HGA) from future storm surges. Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2865-2894"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474534/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144326807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A century of assessment: A systematic review of biothreat risk assessments.","authors":"Claire Atkerson, Michael T Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.70053","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70053","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Throughout the past century, assessments of the risks and benefits posed by high-consequence biological agents have guided US decision-making on weapons research, countermeasure development, and security policy. However, the dispersed nature of these biothreat risk assessments has presented various difficulties, such as duplicative effort, inconsistent approaches, and sectoral echo chambers. In this paper, we set out to evaluate the world's largest repository of biothreat risk assessments to better understand the historical risk assessment landscape, contextualize current risk assessment output, and extract major themes that may shape future risk assessment development and evaluation. To these ends, we developed a decade-by-decade systematic review of the motivations, context, and conclusions of collected biothreat risk assessments. Our results identify particularly important themes and ideas that have shaped modern biosecurity policy, exhibiting the waxing and waning of approaches and perceptions throughout time. Analysis of these biothreat risk assessments identifies key trends, contextualizes modern risk assessment practices, and gives insight into the trajectory of the field moving forward. Collectively, the lessons learned give perspective on the relative success of approaches and modes of thinking in biothreat risk assessment, providing essential insights for risk assessors of the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2808-2821"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474528/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144151641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The importance of structural elements in narrative persuasion: Using the narrative immersion model to promote melanoma prevention.","authors":"Helen M Lillie, Jakob D Jensen, Melinda Krakow","doi":"10.1111/risa.70063","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70063","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Narrative health and risk messaging is most effective when audiences become immersed in the story. The narrative immersion model (NIM) suggests that certain structural elements can increase narrative immersion. Notably, these structural elements are often found in naturally occurring diagnostic narratives (i.e., stories focused on diagnoses). Across two studies, the current research tested four NIM-supported structural elements in the melanoma context. Study 1 (N = 455) tested the effects of point of view, inclusion of a prologue, and explicit time orientation in a melanoma survivor narrative. Sunscreen intention was highest for a first-person story with a prologue, followed by a third-person story without a prologue. Study 2 (N = 592) added nuance by comparing the effects of point of view and prologue for a survivor versus a death outcome. The finding from Study 1 was replicated for the survivor outcome, but the opposite pattern-third-person with a prologue and first-person without a prologue-produced the greatest sunscreen intention with a death outcome. Identification was the mechanism of effect for Study 1; believability was the mechanism of effect for Study 2. Findings contribute greater nuance to research and theorizing about first-person voice, demonstrating that effectiveness is dependent on other story elements. Practically, the current research also highlights the importance of carefully considering how narrative health and risk messaging is constructed.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2895-2907"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474532/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144497987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Personal relevance moderates the effect of conflicting information on risk perception and behavioral outcomes.","authors":"Xinxia Dong, Janet Z Yang","doi":"10.1111/risa.70047","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70047","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Conflicting information that arises from scientific disagreement poses challenges to effective risk communication. This study explores the impact of conflicting information on risk perception and downstream risk-mitigation behavioral intention and policy support. The research context is PFAS (per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances) contamination. We conducted an online experiment featuring a 2 (information type: conflicting vs. consistent) × 2 (personal relevance: high vs. low) between-subjects factorial design with 1232 American adult participants. Results indicated that exposure to conflicting information dampened risk perception, which subsequently reduced risk-mitigation behavioral intention and policy support, but only when participants perceived the risk from PFAS as less personally relevant. These findings underscore the importance of providing consistent information to the public on emerging environmental risks that bear uncertain health impacts.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2685-2696"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144045887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multi-perspective process safety risk assessment with hybrid risks.","authors":"Tahere Vafaee, M A S Monfared","doi":"10.1111/risa.70028","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70028","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this paper, we assert that the process safety risks vary based on the identity of the stakeholders involved, for example, employees, management, regulators, community members, insurance companies, and environment. These risks differ in perceptions, magnitudes, and ramifications across an array of stakeholders. Hence, the process safety risk assessment taken from a single perspective, as is often the case, is inadequate and perhaps misleading. Instead, a more realistic approach is a multi-perspective risk assessment by considering the interactions existing among different perspectives and by building concurrent and compatible models explicitly. This marks the first innovation of the current research work. The second innovation centers on the hybrid nature of risk analysis. We recognize the distinction between safety risks impacting human well-being and risks affecting facilities, properties, capital assets, and the environment. The research introduces a hybrid safety-facility risk assessment to address different types of risks. Still, developing multiple models to represent hybrid risks from different perspectives is complex, time-consuming, tedious, and very costly. In addition, results from multiple models may become incompatible, confusing the stakeholders. To avoid such difficulties, a comprehensive model is developed initially, which, while impractical itself, allows for the extraction of practical perspective-based models through reduction. The methodology was illustrated and validated by examining a city gas pressure reduction station from 12 different perspectives, illustrating different risk results and highlighting the necessity of a multi-perspective and hybrid risk approach for accurate process safety risk analysis. However, the methodology is widely applicable across different risk assessment areas, not limited to the process safety of a city gate station (CGS). Furthermore, the twelve perspectives considered are specific to the context of the CGS case in a suburb of Tehran and may vary in other situations. By incorporating these practices, organizations can ensure a more comprehensive, inclusive, and accurate assessment of process safety risks, ultimately leading to better risk management and decision-making.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2521-2547"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144010089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A farm-to-consumption quantitative microbiological risk assessment for hepatitis E in pigs.","authors":"Neil Wilkins, Matteo Crotta, Pachka Hammami, Ilaria Di Bartolo, Stefan Widgren, Mathieu Andraud, Robin R L Simons","doi":"10.1111/risa.70035","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70035","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Foodborne transmission appears to be a significant route for human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in Europe. We have developed a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for HEV infection due to consumption of three selected pork products (liver pâté, minced meat, and sliced liver), which models the steps from farm to human consumption in high detail, including within-farm transmission dynamics and microbiological processes such as cross contamination and thermal inactivation. Our model is unique in that it considers prevalence and viral load of two microbiological variables, HEV RNA and infectious HEV, expressing the latter in terms of the former through so-called \"adjustment factors\" where data are lacking. When the QMRA was parameterized for France and using infectious HEV, we found that sliced liver posed by far the highest risk of infection, with mean probability per portion &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3.35&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;[&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.28&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.42&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;4&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mo&gt;]&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3.35times 10^{-4},[95% text{CI} (3.28-3.42)times 10^{-4}]$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; , corresponding to &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3447&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3372&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3522&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3447,(95% text{CI} 3372-3522)$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; human cases annually. For minced meat, the probability of infection was &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;3.68&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;8&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;[&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.56&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;3.80&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;mo&gt;×&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;msup&gt;&lt;mn&gt;10&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;8&lt;/mn&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/msup&gt; &lt;mo&gt;]&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$3.68times 10^{-8},[95% text{CI} (3.56-3.80)times 10^{-8}]$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; , with only &lt;math&gt; &lt;semantics&gt;&lt;mrow&gt;&lt;mn&gt;21&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;95&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;%&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mtext&gt;CI&lt;/mtext&gt; &lt;mspace&gt;&lt;/mspace&gt; &lt;mn&gt;20&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;-&lt;/mo&gt; &lt;mn&gt;21&lt;/mn&gt; &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;&lt;/mrow&gt; &lt;annotation&gt;$21,(95% text{CI} 20-21)$&lt;/annotation&gt;&lt;/semantics&gt; &lt;/math&gt; human cases. While our model predicted appreciable levels of HEV RNA remaining in liver pâté at the point of consumption, the amount of infectious HEV and hence risk of infection was zero, emphasizing the importance of using the correct microbiological variable when assessing the risk to consumers. Owing to its highly mechanistic nature, our QMRA can be used in future work to assess the impact of control measures along the pork-supply cha","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2697-2712"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144028032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The conflict between personal interests and group interests during a pandemic.","authors":"Di Mu, Jingnan Cecilia Chen, Todd R Kaplan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70038","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70038","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We use online experiments to study how the public behaves during a major public health event (e.g., a pandemic). For a new infectious disease, decisions by the public are highly dependent on the warning information that they receive. We study the impact of an early warning system and information intervention on public behavior. Early warning systems and different types of information sharing can be adapted to influence the decisions by the public between their own interests and the interests of society. Even when a pandemic is severe and it is more beneficial to stay at home for society, some people tend to continue working, leading to a more rapid spread of the pandemic. Once the pandemic is brought under control, a number of people may still avoid going to work, slowing economic recovery. We find that if the government does not intervene and direct people, they will behave selfishly, which is detrimental to the overall interests of society. By intervention, the government can improve the welfare of society.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2621-2649"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144044227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Do environmental regulations truly reduce risks? Evidence from the heterogeneity of resource-based cities.","authors":"Shufei Huang, Jianping Ge","doi":"10.1111/risa.70046","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70046","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Environmental risks have gained significant attention in recent years, especially in resource-based cities, which are often more vulnerable due to their reliance on resource-intensive industries. Most existing studies focus on the direct emission reduction effect of environmental regulation, but fail to systematically reveal its dynamic regulatory mechanism on the multidimensional environmental risks of resource-based cities. Based on the Driving forces-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework and the characteristics of resource cities, we construct a multidimensional assessment system. Taking typical resource cities in China from 2012 to 2021 as the research object, based on the results of environmental risk assessment, we systematically analyze the differentiated effectiveness of environmental regulation from the perspectives of development stage and resource endowment. It is found that: (1) environmental risks of different types of resource-based cities show significant heterogeneity in cumulative characteristics, and their intensity is synergistically regulated by clean technology, ecological restoration, and policy response; (2) the effectiveness of formal regulation to environmental risk shows an inverted U-shape evolution with the life cycle of the resource-based city, and the inhibitory effect of the declining resource-based cities reaches the peak; and (3) resource endowment regulates the effectiveness of environmental regulation, and the pollution-exposed type of fossil energy resource-based cities rely on formal regulation, while ecologically sensitive forest cities rely on the incentive of informal regulation. This study analyzes the interactive mechanisms of environmental risk generation and governance from a dynamic systems perspective and provides a basis for differentiated governance of urban environmental risks in resource-based cities in developing countries.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2713-2735"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144014577","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate risk and green innovation-ESG disconnect: Firm-level evidence from China.","authors":"Ran Liu, Xuehong Zhu, Jinyu Chen","doi":"10.1111/risa.70034","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70034","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The inability to reliably quantify firms' climate change exposure has become a primary obstacle preventing academics from thoroughly investigating climate impacts on micro-organizations. In this study, we construct firm-level climate risk indicators using hand-collected data on meteorological factors and investigate whether and how climate risk affected the paradoxical relation between corporate green innovation and its' environmental, social, and governance (ESG) scores on the basis of the Chinese context. We document that the climate risk is significantly positively (or negatively) related to the negative (or positive) green innovation-ESG disconnect, implying that climate risk enhances the loose-coupling motives between green innovation and ESG for addressing internal efficiency and external legitimacy conflict. The above disconnect effect of climate risk, namely green innovation as compliance means and ESG as ends fail to complement each other as comparative advantages, is less pronounced for private-owned enterprises, firms with high corporate governance quality, and those with powerful CEOs. Furthermore, the disconnect effect of climate risk results in severe corporate performance volatility and diminishes future growth potential. Overall, this study contributes to the literature on climate risk at the micro level and offers initial evidence that climate risk causes means and ends cannot be mutually justified by demonstrating the green innovation-ESG disconnect, which has conducted few empirical research so far.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2548-2579"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144029270","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Use of updated mortality study of ethylene oxide manufacturing workers to inform cancer risk assessment.","authors":"Ciriaco Valdez-Flores, Abby A Li, Thomas J Bender, M Jane Teta","doi":"10.1111/risa.70057","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70057","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The two most recent cancer risk assessments for ethylene oxide (EO) are based on the same epidemiologic study of sterilant workers conducted by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) but result in cancer risk estimates with three orders of magnitude difference, despite relying on the same assumption of a default linear (non-threshold) extrapolation. A major reason for the difference is the use of different exposure-response models (i.e., the standard Cox proportional hazards [CPH] versus a two-piece linear spline model with a steep initial slope) to derive the inhalation unit risk. The purpose of this research is to utilize analysis of a 10-year update of the Union Carbide Corporation (UCC) EO 2053 chemical worker cohort to examine the epidemiological evidence for the shape of the exposure-response model for EO. This updated UCC study provides an external dataset that is informative given high average cumulative exposures (67 ppm-years), extensive average follow-up of over 40 years, and number of male lymphoid cancer deaths (25) comparable to that observed in the NIOSH cohort. This independent analysis of a different cohort using continuous dose response modeling with cumulative or log cumulative exposure metrics provides no empirical support for a steep curve at low exposures. Furthermore, analyses of the categorical odds ratio estimates across different updates of the UCC cohort and for each sex in the NIOSH cohort provide further epidemiological evidence that the standard CPH model more plausibly describes the relationship between EO exposures and lymphoid mortality for both cohorts.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2822-2837"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474530/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144209409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}