Risk Analysis最新文献_第3页

A taxonomy of cyber risk taxonomies. 网络风险分类标准。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16629

Giovanni Rabitti, Amir Khorrami Chokami, Patrick Coyle, Ruben D Cohen

引用次数: 0

Modeling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: A mixed-effects analysis. 新西兰地震保险损失的空间相关性建模：混合效应分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16638

F Marta L Di Lascio, Ilan Noy, Selene Perazzini

{"title":"Modeling spatial correlation between earthquake insured losses in New Zealand: A mixed-effects analysis.","authors":"F Marta L Di Lascio, Ilan Noy, Selene Perazzini","doi":"10.1111/risa.16638","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16638","url":null,"abstract":"Earthquake insurance is a critical risk management strategy that contributes to improving recovery and thus greater resilience of individuals. Insurance companies construct premiums without taking into account spatial correlations between insured assets. This leads to potentially underestimating the risk, and therefore the exceedance probability curve. We here propose a mixed-effects model to estimate losses per ward that is able to account for heteroskedasticity and spatial correlation between insured losses. Given the significant impact of earthquakes in New Zealand due to its particular geographical and demographic characteristics, the government has established a public insurance company that collects information about the insured buildings and any claims lodged. We thus develop a two-level variance component model that is based on earthquake losses observed in New Zealand between 2000 and 2021. The proposed model aims at capturing the variability at both the ward and territorial authority levels and includes independent variables, such as seismic hazard indicators, the number of usual residents, and the average dwelling value in the ward. Our model is able to detect spatial correlation in the losses at the ward level thus increasing its predictive power and making it possible to assess the effect of spatially correlated claims that may be considerable on the tail of loss distribution.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"387-398"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141875797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Estimating the loss-reduction effects of disaster preparedness and mitigation: An empirical study of US coastal states. 估算备灾和减灾对减少损失的影响：对美国沿海各州的实证研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16111

Qing Miao, Meri Davlasheridze

{"title":"Estimating the loss-reduction effects of disaster preparedness and mitigation: An empirical study of US coastal states.","authors":"Qing Miao, Meri Davlasheridze","doi":"10.1111/risa.16111","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16111","url":null,"abstract":"As extreme weather events like floods and storms continue to increase, it is crucial to examine the degree to which various disaster preparedness and mitigation investments can lower these risks. In this research, we empirically examine the effects of multiple federal disaster aid programs on reducing subsequent flood- and storm-related damages across US coastal states. Our analysis distinguishes aid programs and their funded projects targeting different emergency management functions, including preparedness, nonstructural and structural mitigation, emergency response and protective measures, and rehabilitation of public infrastructure. We construct panel data of more than 1800 US counties over the years 2000-2019 and estimate a fixed-effects model with time-varying county-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We find that disaster aid generally helps mitigate property damages, although this loss-reduction effect varies by program. Among all aid programs, the Emergency Management Performance Grant results in the largest reduction of future flood damages. The Public Assistance grants supporting emergency work are also found to exert a strong effect on risk reduction. We also find that the impacts of disaster aid are higher in coastal counties. Our study is one of the first few examining the resilience implication of disaster aid in coastal counties, and our results underscore the importance of investing in capacity building, contingency planning, and consistency in maintenance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"307-321"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141767218","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

"The more I think about it, the less I like it": Effects of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat on the effectiveness of HPV vaccination advocacy messages. “我越想它，我越不喜欢它”：阐述，叙事运输和自由威胁对HPV疫苗接种宣传信息有效性的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17688

Roger Gans

{"title":"\"The more I think about it, the less I like it\": Effects of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat on the effectiveness of HPV vaccination advocacy messages.","authors":"Roger Gans","doi":"10.1111/risa.17688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17688","url":null,"abstract":"Approximately 80 million US adults-one in four-are infected with the human papillomavirus (HPV), which causes cancers of the cervix in women, cancers of the anus, penis, and throat in men, and genital warts in both sexes. Although HPV vaccinations are safe, effective, easily affordable, and readily available, a substantial percentage of parents resist recommendations to vaccinate their children against HPV. The current study tests the effects of different vaccination advocacy message strategies on attitudes toward HPV vaccination. Study participants (N = 963) were randomly assigned to one of four message conditions (a narrative story, an informational fact sheet, an appeal from an expert spokesperson, or an identical appeal from a nonexpert spokesperson) and assessed for change in attitude toward HPV vaccination along with levels of elaboration, narrative transportation, and freedom threat caused by the messages. Analyses showed that the messages' effects on attitude change were mediated by transportation and moderated by freedom threat. With the informative, expert, and nonexpert messages, increased message engagement produced increased freedom threat. With the narrative message, increased message engagement produced reduced levels of freedom threat. For risk communicators and planners of health interventions, the results suggest benefits for using a nonexpert advocacy message when levels of message engagement are expected to be low and using a story-based narrative advocacy message when levels of message engagement are expected to be high.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010741","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Managing and mitigating future public health risks: Planetary boundaries, global catastrophic risk, and inclusive wealth. 管理和减轻未来公共卫生风险：地球边界、全球灾难性风险和包容性财富。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17703

Eoin McLaughlin, Matthias Beck

{"title":"Managing and mitigating future public health risks: Planetary boundaries, global catastrophic risk, and inclusive wealth.","authors":"Eoin McLaughlin, Matthias Beck","doi":"10.1111/risa.17703","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17703","url":null,"abstract":"There are two separate conceptualizations for assessing existential risks: Planetary Boundaries (PBs) and global catastrophic risks (GCRs). While these concepts are similar in principle, their underpinning literatures tend not to engage with each other. Research related to these concepts has tended to be siloed in terms of the study of specific threats and also in terms of how these are assumed to materialize; PBs attribute global catastrophes to slow-moving and potentially irreversible global changes, while GCRs focuses on cataclysmic short-term events. We argue that there is a need for a more unified approach to managing global long-term risks, which recognizes the complex and confounded nature of the interactions between PBs and GCRs. We highlight where the PB and GCR concepts overlap and outline these complexities using an example of public health, namely, pandemics and food insecurity. We also present an existing indicator that we argue can be used for monitoring and managing risk. We argue for greater emphasis on national and global ''inclusive wealth'' as a way to measure economic activity and thus to monitor and mitigate the unintended consequences of economic activity. In sum, we call for a holistic approach to stewardship aimed at preserving the integrity of natural capital in the face of a broad range of global risks and their respective regional or global manifestations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate. 洪水预测下的决策：沿海房地产风险感知研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17706

Avidesh Seenath, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, Matthew Blackett

{"title":"Decision-making under flood predictions: A risk perception study of coastal real estate.","authors":"Avidesh Seenath, Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, Matthew Blackett","doi":"10.1111/risa.17706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17706","url":null,"abstract":"Flood models, while representing our best knowledge of a natural phenomenon, are continually evolving. Their predictions, albeit undeniably important for flood risk management, contain considerable uncertainties related to model structure, parameterization, and input data. With multiple sources of flood predictions becoming increasingly available through online flood maps, the uncertainties in these predictions present considerable risks related to property devaluation. Such risks stem from real estate decisions, measured by location preferences and willingness-to-pay to buy and rent properties, based on access to various sources of flood predictions. Here, we evaluate the influence of coastal flood predictions on real estate decision-making in the United Kingdom by adopting an interdisciplinary approach, involving flood modeling, novel experimental willingness-to-pay real estate surveys of UK residents in response to flood predictions, statistical modeling, and geospatial analysis. Our main findings show that access to multiple sources of flood predictions dominates real estate decisions relative to preferences for location aesthetics, reflecting a shift in demand toward risk averse locations. We also find that people do not consider flood prediction uncertainty in their real estate decisions, possibly due to an inability to perceive such uncertainty. These results are robust under a repeated experimental survey using an open access long-term flood risk map. We, therefore, recommend getting flood models \"right\" but recognize that this is a contentious issue because it implies having an error-free model, which is practically impossible. Hence, to reduce real estate risks, we advocate for a greater emphasis on effectively communicating flood model predictions and their uncertainties to non-experts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The use of public spatial databases in risk analysis: A US-oriented tutorial. 公共空间数据库在风险分析中的应用：面向美国的教程。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17705

Michael R Greenberg, Dona Schneider, Louis Anthony Cox

{"title":"The use of public spatial databases in risk analysis: A US-oriented tutorial.","authors":"Michael R Greenberg, Dona Schneider, Louis Anthony Cox","doi":"10.1111/risa.17705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17705","url":null,"abstract":"This tutorial focuses on opportunities and challenges associated with using six large, publicly accessible spatial databases published during the last decade by US federal agencies. These databases provide opportunities for researchers to risk-inform policy by comparing community asset, demographic, economic, and social data, along with anthropogenic and natural hazard data at multiple geographic scales. The opportunities for data analysis come with challenges, including data accuracy, variations in the shape and size of data cells, spatial autocorrelation, and other issues endemic to spatial datasets. If ignored, these issues can lead to misleading results. This article briefly reviews the six databases and how agencies use them. It then focuses on the data and its limitations. Examples are provided, as are summaries of the debates surrounding these databases, followed by paths forward for improving their use. We end with a checklist that users should consider when they access any of the six spatial databases or others. We believe that these new resources can be effectively used with appropriate caution to answer user-generated questions about hazards and risks-questions that are important to both community groups and government decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evolutionary analysis of a coupled epidemic-voluntary vaccination behavior model with immunity waning on complex networks. 复杂网络中具有免疫减弱的流行病-自愿疫苗接种耦合行为模型的进化分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17699

Xueyu Meng, Yufei Fan, Yanan Qiao, Jianhong Lin, Zhiqiang Cai, Shubin Si

{"title":"Evolutionary analysis of a coupled epidemic-voluntary vaccination behavior model with immunity waning on complex networks.","authors":"Xueyu Meng, Yufei Fan, Yanan Qiao, Jianhong Lin, Zhiqiang Cai, Shubin Si","doi":"10.1111/risa.17699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17699","url":null,"abstract":"Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing and controlling the transmission of infectious diseases within populations. However, the phenomenon of waning immunity can induce periodic fluctuations in epidemic spreading. This study proposes a coupled epidemic-vaccination dynamic model to analyze the influence of immunity waning on the epidemic spreading within the context of voluntary vaccination. First, we establish an SIRSV (susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible-vaccinated) compartment model to describe the transmission mechanism of infectious diseases based on the mean-field theory. Within this model, we incorporate a nonlinear infection rate with network topology and consider the waning natural and vaccine-induced immunity at the individual level. The evolutionary model of voluntary vaccination strategy is integrated into the SIRSV model to characterize the impact of vaccination behavior on the infectious disease transmission. We also consider two individual risk assessment methods, namely, the individual-based risk assessment (IB-RA) method and the society-based risk assessment (SB-RA) method, originating from local and global perspectives, respectively. Then, utilizing the next-generation matrix method, we derive the time-varying effective reproduction numbers of the model. Also, the theoretical analysis of optimal strategy thresholds in the individual decision-making process is also conducted. The results indicate that the thresholds obtained from the agent-based model (ABM) simulation method are consistent with the theoretical analysis, demonstrating the effectiveness of our model. Finally, we apply the coupled model to the COVID-19 pandemic in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom. This study analyzes the impact of waning immunity and provides early warning for the outbreak of the epidemics.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010874","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public opinion outweighs knowledge: A dual-process framework for understanding acceptance of genetic modification among scientists and laypeople. 公众舆论重于知识：理解科学家和非专业人士接受基因改造的双重过程框架。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17704

Anfan Chen, Xing Zhang, Jianbin Jin

{"title":"Public opinion outweighs knowledge: A dual-process framework for understanding acceptance of genetic modification among scientists and laypeople.","authors":"Anfan Chen, Xing Zhang, Jianbin Jin","doi":"10.1111/risa.17704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17704","url":null,"abstract":"Communication research on scientific issues has traditionally relied on the deficit model, which posits that increasing scientific knowledge leads to public acceptance. However, this model's effectiveness is questioned due to inconclusive impacts of knowledge on acceptance. To address this, we propose a dual-process framework combining the deficit model (with scientific knowledge as a key predictor) and a normative opinion process model (where perceived majority opinion plays a crucial role) to predict people's risk/benefit perceptions and their support for genetic modification (GM). Using two national surveys in mainland China-Study 1 with 5145 laypeople and Study 2 with 12,268 scientists-we found positive and significant correlations between scientific knowledge or perceived majority opinion and GM support, mediated by risk/benefit perceptions. Importantly, the normative pathway-represented by perceived majority opinion-exerts a stronger direct and indirect impacts on GM support than scientific knowledge across both scientists and laypeople. Moreover, while the normative process shows a greater influence than the informative process on individuals' perceptions of both benefits and risks associated with GM, its prominence differs between scientists and laypeople depending on the types of perceptions-scientists are more sensitive to risk-related social norms, whereas laypeople are more concerned with norms related to benefits. The paper concludes with a discussion on the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010888","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural uncertainty avoidance predicts consumers' affective reactions to chemicals. 文化不确定性规避预测了消费者对化学品的情感反应。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17693

Christian Martin

{"title":"Cultural uncertainty avoidance predicts consumers' affective reactions to chemicals.","authors":"Christian Martin","doi":"10.1111/risa.17693","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17693","url":null,"abstract":"Chemicals in general often evoke negative emotions (e.g., worry or fear) in consumers. This can cause consumers to avoid beneficial products and may even lead to suboptimal public policy decisions. It is, therefore, important to better understand how affective reactions to chemicals in general (ARC) form in order to be able to counteract these undesirable effects. The present research contributes to the literature on ARC by studying between-country differences in ARC. While ARC were negative in all countries in our dataset, there were practically relevant between-country differences in how negative they were. We predicted and found that consumers in higher uncertainty avoidance (UA) societies reported more negative ARC than their counterparts in lower UA societies. This effect was due to the rule orientation component rather than the anxiety component of UA. Importantly, while we found evidence for several alternative explanations for between-country variation in ARC (i.e., differences in affluence, individualism, prevalence of chemicals, and trust in consumer protection), the UA effect remained statistically significant when we controlled for other country characteristics. The present research contributes to a better understanding of how contextual factors on the society level influence consumers' ARC and in doing so advances our understanding of ARC. It also has implications for practitioners who wish to educate consumers on the risks and benefits of chemicals.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0