Risk Analysis最新文献_第3页

Adaptive sampling method to monitor low-risk pathways with limited surveillance resources. 在监测资源有限的情况下，采用自适应采样方法监测低风险途径。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14344

Thao P Le, Thomas K Waring, Howard Bondell, Andrew P Robinson, Christopher M Baker

{"title":"Adaptive sampling method to monitor low-risk pathways with limited surveillance resources.","authors":"Thao P Le, Thomas K Waring, Howard Bondell, Andrew P Robinson, Christopher M Baker","doi":"10.1111/risa.14344","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14344","url":null,"abstract":"The rise of globalization has led to a sharp increase in international trade with high volumes of containers, goods, and items moving across the world. Unfortunately, these trade pathways also facilitate the movement of unwanted pests, weeds, diseases, and pathogens. Each item could contain biosecurity risk material, but it is impractical to inspect every item. Instead, inspection efforts typically focus on high-risk items. However, low risk does not imply no risk. It is crucial to monitor the low-risk pathways to ensure that they are and remain low risk. To do so, many approaches would seek to estimate the risk to some precision, but increasingly lower risks require more samples. On a low-risk pathway that can be afforded only limited inspection resources, it makes more sense to assign fewer samples to the lower risk activities. We approach the problem by introducing two thresholds. Our method focuses on letting us know whether the risk is below certain thresholds, rather than estimating the risk precisely. This method also allows us to detect a significant change in risk. Our approach typically requires less sampling than previous methods, while still providing evidence to regulators to help them efficiently and effectively allocate inspection effort.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2740-2754"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141306676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Examining social vulnerability to multi-hazards in North-Western Himalayas, India. 研究印度喜马拉雅山西北部地区面对多种灾害时的社会脆弱性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14340

Lucky Sharma, Narendra Kumar Rana, Shiva Kant Dube

{"title":"Examining social vulnerability to multi-hazards in North-Western Himalayas, India.","authors":"Lucky Sharma, Narendra Kumar Rana, Shiva Kant Dube","doi":"10.1111/risa.14340","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14340","url":null,"abstract":"The enhancing risk from human action and multi-hazard interaction has substantially complicated the hazard-society relationship. The underlying vulnerabilities are crucial in predicting the probable impact to be caused by multi-hazards. Thus, the evaluation of social vulnerability is decisive in inferring the driving factor and preparing for mitigation strategies. The Himalayan landscape is prone to multiple hazards as well as possesses a multitude of vulnerabilities owing to changing human landscape. Thus, an attempt has been made to inquire into the underlying socioeconomic factors enhancing the susceptibility of the region to multi-hazards. The social vulnerability index (SVIent) has been introduced, consisting of 13 indicators and 33 variables. The variables have been standardized using the maximum and minimum normalization method and the relative importance for each indicator has been determined using Shannon entropy methods to compute SVIent. The findings revealed that female population, population above 60 years old, net irrigated area, migrant population, dilapidated house, nonworkers, bank, and nonworkers seeking jobs were found to be relatively significant contributors to the vulnerability. The western part of the study area was classified as the highly vulnerable category (SVI > 0.40628), attributed to high dependence, and higher share of unemployed workers and high poverty. The SVIent was shown to have positive correlation between unemployment, socioeconomic status, migration, dependency, and household structure significant at two-tailed test. The study's impact can be found in influencing the decision of policymakers and stakeholders in framing the mitigation strategies and policy documents.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2707-2722"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141306677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A bed allocation model for pandemic situation considering general demand: A case study of Iran. 考虑一般需求的大流行病床位分配模型：伊朗案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14339

Mohammadreza Korzebor, Nasim Nahavandi

{"title":"A bed allocation model for pandemic situation considering general demand: A case study of Iran.","authors":"Mohammadreza Korzebor, Nasim Nahavandi","doi":"10.1111/risa.14339","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14339","url":null,"abstract":"Pandemics place a new type of demand from patients affected by the pandemic, imposing significant strain on hospital departments, particularly the intensive care unit. A crucial challenge during pandemics is the imbalance in addressing the needs of both pandemic patients and general patients. Often, the community's focus shifts toward the pandemic patients, causing an imbalance that can result in severe issues. Simultaneously considering both demands, pandemic-related and general healthcare needs, has been largely overlooked. In this article, we propose a bi-objective mathematical model for locating temporary hospitals and allocating patients to existing and temporary hospitals, considering both demand types during pandemics. Hospital departments, such as emergency beds, serve both demand types, but due to infection risks, accommodating a pandemic patient and a general patient in the same department is not feasible. The first objective function is to minimize the bed shortages considering both types of demands, whereas the second objective is cost minimization, which includes the fixed and variable costs of temporary facilities, the penalty cost of changing the allocation of existing facilities (between general and pandemic demand), the cost of adding expandable beds to existing facilities, and the service cost for different services and beds. To show the applicability of the model, a real case study has been conducted on the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Qom, Iran. Comparing the model results with real data reveals that using the proposed model can increase demand coverage by 16%.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2660-2676"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141288530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A generic causality-informed neural network (CINN) methodology for quantitative risk analytics and decision support. 用于定量风险分析和决策支持的通用因果信息神经网络 (CINN) 方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14347

Xiaoge Zhang, Xiangyun Long, Yu Liu, Kai Zhou, Jinwu Li

{"title":"A generic causality-informed neural network (CINN) methodology for quantitative risk analytics and decision support.","authors":"Xiaoge Zhang, Xiangyun Long, Yu Liu, Kai Zhou, Jinwu Li","doi":"10.1111/risa.14347","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14347","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we develop a generic framework for systemically encoding causal knowledge manifested in the form of hierarchical causality structure and qualitative (or quantitative) causal relationships into neural networks to facilitate sound risk analytics and decision support via causally-aware intervention reasoning. The proposed methodology for establishing causality-informed neural network (CINN) follows a four-step procedure. In the first step, we explicate how causal knowledge in the form of directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be discovered from observation data or elicited from domain experts. Next, we categorize nodes in the constructed DAG representing causal relationships among observed variables into several groups (e.g., root nodes, intermediate nodes, and leaf nodes), and align the architecture of CINN with causal relationships specified in the DAG while preserving the orientation of each existing causal relationship. In addition to a dedicated architecture design, CINN also gets embodied in the design of loss function, where both intermediate and leaf nodes are treated as target outputs to be predicted by CINN. In the third step, we propose to incorporate domain knowledge on stable causal relationships into CINN, and the injected constraints on causal relationships act as guardrails to prevent unexpected behaviors of CINN. Finally, the trained CINN is exploited to perform intervention reasoning with emphasis on estimating the effect that policies and actions can have on the system behavior, thus facilitating risk-informed decision making through comprehensive \"what-if\" analysis. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the substantial benefits enabled by CINN in risk analytics and decision support.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2677-2695"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141293676","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating the effects of spatial scales on social vulnerability index: A hybrid uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach combined with remote sensing land cover data. 调查空间尺度对社会脆弱性指数的影响：结合遥感土地覆被数据的混合不确定性和敏感性分析方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14342

Bowen He, Qun Guan

{"title":"Investigating the effects of spatial scales on social vulnerability index: A hybrid uncertainty and sensitivity analysis approach combined with remote sensing land cover data.","authors":"Bowen He, Qun Guan","doi":"10.1111/risa.14342","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14342","url":null,"abstract":"Investigating the effects of spatial scales on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the social vulnerability index (SoVI) model output is critical, especially for spatial scales finer than the census block group or census block. This study applied the intelligent dasymetric mapping approach to spatially disaggregate the census tract scale SoVI model into a 300-m grids resolution SoVI map in Davidson County, Nashville. Then, uncertainty analysis and variance-based global sensitivity analysis were conducted on two scales of SoVI models: (a) census tract scale; (b) 300-m grids scale. Uncertainty analysis results indicate that the SoVI model has better confidence in identifying places with a higher socially vulnerable status, no matter the spatial scales in which the SoVI is constructed. However, the spatial scale of SoVI does affect the sensitivity analysis results. The sensitivity analysis suggests that for census tract scale SoVI, the indicator transformation and weighting scheme are the two major uncertainty contributors in the SoVI index modeling stages. While for finer spatial scales like the 300-m grid's resolution, the weighting scheme becomes the uttermost dominant uncertainty contributor, absorbing uncertainty contributions from indicator transformation.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2723-2739"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141306678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The risk paradox: Exploring asymmetric nexus between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy technology budgets. 风险悖论：探索气候政策不确定性与可再生能源技术预算之间的不对称关系。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14315

Ming Zhou, Junkai Wang, Muhammad Imdad Ullah, Sajid Ali

{"title":"The risk paradox: Exploring asymmetric nexus between climate policy uncertainty and renewable energy technology budgets.","authors":"Ming Zhou, Junkai Wang, Muhammad Imdad Ullah, Sajid Ali","doi":"10.1111/risa.14315","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14315","url":null,"abstract":"The ups and downs of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) cast a captivating shadow over the budgets allocated to renewable energy (RE) technologies, where strategic choices and risk assessment will determine the course of our green environmental revolution. The main intention of this investigation is to scrutinize the effect of CPU on the RE technology budgets (RETBs) in the top 10 countries with the highest RE research and development budgets (the USA, China, South Korea, India, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Japan, Australia, and Italy). Although former researchers have typically employed panel data tools to contemplate the connection between CPU and RE technology, they repeatedly ignored variations in this connection throughout different economies. In contrast, our research adopts a unique approach, \"quantile-on-quantile,\" to check this association at the country-to-country level. This approach offers a comprehensive worldwide perspective while procuring tailor-made perceptions for individual economies. The outcomes suggest that CPU significantly decreases RETBs across several data quantiles in our sample nations. In addition, the outcomes underscore that the connections between our variables differ among nations. These outcomes highlight the significance of policymakers implementing thorough appraisals and skillfully governing plans relevant to CPU and RETBs.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2537-2553"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141081635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A data-driven and cost-oriented FMEA-MCDM approach to risk assessment and ranking in a fuzzy environment: A hydraulic pump factory case study. 模糊环境下风险评估和排序的数据驱动和成本导向 FMEA-MCDM 方法：液压泵厂案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14338

Hossein Shakibaei, Saba Seifi, Jun Zhuang

{"title":"A data-driven and cost-oriented FMEA-MCDM approach to risk assessment and ranking in a fuzzy environment: A hydraulic pump factory case study.","authors":"Hossein Shakibaei, Saba Seifi, Jun Zhuang","doi":"10.1111/risa.14338","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14338","url":null,"abstract":"In today's highly competitive business environment, firms strive to maximize profitability by minimizing or eliminating disruptions and failures to maintain a competitive edge. This study focuses on evaluating risks in a hydraulic pump factory as a means to achieve sustainable growth. To accomplish this, a team of experts was formed to identify potential errors, utilizing a combination of risk priority number criteria weighted by Fuzzy Shannon's entropy and a fusion of multi-criteria decision-making and failure mode and effects analysis for evaluating and ranking failures. Moreover, the study emphasizes the importance of considering the interaction among risk assessment indicators, the inclusion of cost of failure, and modeling under fuzzy uncertainty circumstances, as they have a notable impact on the final ranking of failures to be processed for risk mitigation action planning. This research brings a new dimension to enhance the overall effectiveness of risk assessment by aggregation, as evidenced by a novel use of data classification in machine learning and correlation in statistics. The findings indicate that the aggregated ranking data series is best matched and most influenced by the weighted aggregated sum product assessment method, with the highest rate of recall and precision accomplished.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2629-2648"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141180598","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural theory and political philosophy: Why cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk explain both beliefs about nature's resilience and political preferences regarding the organization of society. 文化理论与政治哲学：为什么对模糊风险的认知偏差既能解释关于自然复原力的信念，也能解释关于社会组织的政治偏好。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17668

Marc D Davidson

{"title":"Cultural theory and political philosophy: Why cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk explain both beliefs about nature's resilience and political preferences regarding the organization of society.","authors":"Marc D Davidson","doi":"10.1111/risa.17668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17668","url":null,"abstract":"Many studies have observed a correlation between beliefs regarding nature's resilience and (political) preferences regarding the organization of society. Liberal-egalitarians, for example, generally believe nature to be much more fragile than libertarians, who believe nature to be much more resilient. Cultural theory explains this correlation by the idea that people are only able to see those risks that fit their preferred organization of society. This article offers an alternative, second explanation for the observed correlation: Both beliefs regarding nature's resilience and political preferences can be explained by the same cognitive biases toward ambiguous risk, that is, dispositions determining our expectations regarding the possible state of affairs resulting from our acts and their probabilities. This has consequences for political philosophy and the psychology of risk. In particular, there is a knowledge gap in psychology regarding the cognitive biases underlying the belief that despite ambiguity, experts can determine safe limits for human impacts on the environment.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142547113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emergency medical supply planning considering prepositioning and dynamic in-kind donation management in healthcare coalitions. 考虑到医疗联盟中的预置和动态实物捐赠管理的紧急医疗供应规划。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17667

Qingyi Wang, Renshan Zhang, Li Luo

引用次数: 0

Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk. 分配公正与气候风险评估：对直接和间接风险差异的分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17664

M J Anderson, L Conrow, M Hobbs, R Paulik, P Blackett, T Logan

{"title":"Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk.","authors":"M J Anderson, L Conrow, M Hobbs, R Paulik, P Blackett, T Logan","doi":"10.1111/risa.17664","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17664","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and natural hazard risk assessments often overlook indirect impacts, leading to a limited understanding of the full extent of risk and the disparities in its distribution across populations. This study investigates distributional justice in natural hazard impacts, exploring its critical implications for environmental justice, equity, and resilience in adaptation planning. We employ high-resolution spatial risk assessment and origin-destination routing to analyze coastal flooding and sea-level rise scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand. This approach allows the assessment of both direct impacts (property exposure) and indirect impacts (physical isolation from key amenities) on residents. Indirect impacts, such as isolation and reduced access to resources, have significant adverse effects on well-being, social cohesion, and community resilience. Including indirect impacts in risk assessments dramatically increases the overall population burden, while revealing complex effects on existing inequalities. Our analysis reveals that including indirect impacts increases the overall population burden, but the effect on inequalities varies. These inequalities can be exacerbated or attenuated depending on scale and location, underscoring the need for decision-makers to identify these nuanced distributions and apply context-specific frameworks when determining equitable outcomes. Our findings uncover a substantial number of previously invisible at-risk residents-from 61,000 to 217,000 nationally in a present-day event-and expose a shift in impact distribution toward underserved communities. As indirect risks exacerbate disparities and impede climate adaptation efforts, adopting an inclusive approach that accounts for both direct and indirect risks and their [un]equal distribution is imperative for effective and equitable decision-making.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0