Risk Analysis最新文献_第4页

Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with multivariate outputs. 多变量输出综合评估模型的全球敏感性分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70002

Leonardo Chiani, Emanuele Borgonovo, Elmar Plischke, Massimo Tavoni

{"title":"Global sensitivity analysis of integrated assessment models with multivariate outputs.","authors":"Leonardo Chiani, Emanuele Borgonovo, Elmar Plischke, Massimo Tavoni","doi":"10.1111/risa.70002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70002","url":null,"abstract":"Risk assessments of complex systems are often supported by quantitative models. The sophistication of these models and the presence of various uncertainties call for systematic robustness and sensitivity analyses. The multivariate nature of their response challenges the use of traditional approaches. We propose a structured methodology to perform uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for risk assessment models with multivariate outputs. At the core of the approach are novel sensitivity measures based on the theory of optimal transport. We apply the approach to the uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of emissions pathways estimated via an eminent open-source climate-economy model (RICE50+). The model has many correlated inputs and multivariate outputs. We use up-to-date input distributions and long-term projections of key demographic and socioeconomic drivers. The sensitivity of the model is explored under alternative policy architectures: a cost-benefit analysis with and without international cooperation and a cost-effective analysis consistent with the Paris Agreement objective of keeping temperature increase below 2°C. In the cost-benefit scenarios, the key drivers of uncertainty are the emission intensity of the economy and the emission reduction costs. In the Paris Agreement scenario, the main driver is the sensitivity of the climate system, followed by the projected carbon intensity. We present insights at the multivariate model output level and discuss how the importance of inputs changes across regions and over time.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143476723","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Water outage predictions for natural hazards using synthetic water distribution systems.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70004

Zaira Pagan-Cajigas, Seth Guikema, Rosalia Otaduy-Ramirez, Vanessa Woolley, Kaleb Smith, Tongxing Hu, Thomas Chen

{"title":"Water outage predictions for natural hazards using synthetic water distribution systems.","authors":"Zaira Pagan-Cajigas, Seth Guikema, Rosalia Otaduy-Ramirez, Vanessa Woolley, Kaleb Smith, Tongxing Hu, Thomas Chen","doi":"10.1111/risa.70004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70004","url":null,"abstract":"Hazards can impact water systems, leading to water outages that result in economic, environmental, and societal losses. Modeling a system's behavior helps develop short-term restoration strategies and long-term resilience planning. However, data on the topology and operational characteristics of real water systems are often unavailable outside of the utility operating the system, limiting the ability of others depending on the system to understand its vulnerability and resilience. We address this limitation by developing an algorithm that generates a synthetic water distribution system using only publicly available data. Our approach provides hydraulic information at the building level to support infrastructure resilience assessments. We validated our model by comparing the network topologic and hydraulic properties with data from the real water system of Ann Arbor, Michigan. Our synthetic model results indicate that 95% of the simulated building-level pressures were within <math> <semantics><mrow><mo>±</mo> <mspace></mspace> <mn>25</mn></mrow> <annotation>$ pm ;25$</annotation></semantics> </math> PSI of the hydraulic model data from the existing system. To demonstrate an application of our model, we simulated water outages at the building level using hazard loading and fragility functions corresponding to an earthquake scenario.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143472903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Applications of interpretable ensemble learning for workplace risk assessment: The Chinese coal industry as an example.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17708

QiFei Wang, YiHan Zhao, JunLong Wang, Shuai Liu, HaoLin Liu, Yang Qu, YingFeng Sun, ChengWu Li

{"title":"Applications of interpretable ensemble learning for workplace risk assessment: The Chinese coal industry as an example.","authors":"QiFei Wang, YiHan Zhao, JunLong Wang, Shuai Liu, HaoLin Liu, Yang Qu, YingFeng Sun, ChengWu Li","doi":"10.1111/risa.17708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17708","url":null,"abstract":"Machine learning has demonstrated potential in addressing complex nonlinear changes in risk assessment. However, further exploration is needed to enhance model interpretability and optimize performance. Therefore, this study aims to develop a novel workplace risk assessment framework. By utilizing the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis method and ensemble learning algorithms, the framework maps characteristic attributes to risk levels. Reliability validation of the framework and analysis of critical attribute components are conducted using accidents in Chinese coal enterprises as a case study, which represents one of the most serious occupational hazards. The results indicate that addressing interpretability issues of ensemble learning algorithms yields a model capable of accurately assessing workplace risk and understanding model decision-making processes. Comparative experiments show that the model achieves an accuracy of up to 98.3%, confirming its robust performance. The outcomes of the SHAP model for feature importance facilitate the identification of critical attributes that explain causal relationships leading to risk-level findings. This provides valuable accident prevention strategies to minimize occupational injuries and losses.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143468903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Simulation model to estimate the burden of disease due to hepatitis E virus in Dutch pig meat and cost-effectiveness of control measures.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17719

M Focker, C P A van Wagenberg, M A P M van Asseldonk, I L A Boxman, R W Hakze-van der Honing, E D van Asselt

{"title":"Simulation model to estimate the burden of disease due to hepatitis E virus in Dutch pig meat and cost-effectiveness of control measures.","authors":"M Focker, C P A van Wagenberg, M A P M van Asseldonk, I L A Boxman, R W Hakze-van der Honing, E D van Asselt","doi":"10.1111/risa.17719","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17719","url":null,"abstract":"Hepatitis E virus (HEV) can lead to liver disease in humans. In the Netherlands, the consumption of pig meat is thought to be the main contributor to the total burden of disease caused by HEV. In this study, the number of cases and lost disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to HEV in pig meat were estimated by simulating HEV through the pig supply chain, including the farm, transport, lairage, slaughtering, processing, and consumption stages. The first four stages were modeled using a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model. For the last two stages, pig meat and liver products were divided into six product categories commonly consumed by Dutch consumers. Depending on the product category, different ways of heating and storing, leading to the reduction of infectious HEV genome copies, were assumed. Furthermore, the model was challenged by four selected control options at the pig farm: the cleaning of driving boards, the use of predatory flies, the use of rubber mats, and the vaccination of finishing pigs. Finally, the cost-effectiveness of these control measures was estimated by estimating the costs per avoided DALY. For the baseline situation, it was estimated that HEV in pig meat would lead to 70 cases and 21 DALYs per year. All control measures led to a decreased number of DALYs, with vaccination leading to the largest decrease: five DALYs per year. However, the costs per avoided DALY ranged from €0.5 to €7.5 million, making none of the control measures cost-effective unless the control measures are also effective against other pathogens.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143450134","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of bioaerosol emissions from squat and bidet toilets during flushing.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70000

Wajid Ali, Zhen Hu, Zhe-Ren Tang, Si-Yi Liu, Zaheer Ahmad Nasir, Frederic Coulon, Peng Liu, Cheng Yan

{"title":"Quantitative microbial risk assessment of bioaerosol emissions from squat and bidet toilets during flushing.","authors":"Wajid Ali, Zhen Hu, Zhe-Ren Tang, Si-Yi Liu, Zaheer Ahmad Nasir, Frederic Coulon, Peng Liu, Cheng Yan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70000","url":null,"abstract":"Bioaerosol emissions during toilet flushing are an often-overlooked source of potential health risks in shared public facilities. This study systematically investigated the emission characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli bioaerosols in washrooms with squat and bidet toilets under varying flushing conditions and ventilation scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulation-based quantitative microbial risk assessment and sensitivity analysis, the study estimated the disease burden and identified key factors influencing risk. The results showed that squat toilets generated 1.7-2.6 times higher concentrations of S. aureus bioaerosols and 1.2-1.4 times higher concentrations of E. coli bioaerosols compared to bidet toilets. After the first flush, bioaerosol concentrations were 1.3-1.8 times (S. aureus) and 1.2-1.4 times (E. coli) lower than those observed after the second flush. The second flush released a higher proportion of fine bioaerosol particles (<4.7 µm), increasing inhalation risks. The disease health risk burden was consistently one order of magnitude lower after the first flush than the second one. Ventilation with a turned-on exhaust fan further reduced the risk by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity analysis identified exposure concentration as the most influential parameter, contributing up to 50% of the overall risk. This study highlights the importance of optimizing toilet design and ventilation systems to mitigate bioaerosol emissions and associated health risks. It provides actionable insights for improving public washroom hygiene and minimizing bioaerosol exposure.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143441745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrated testing strategies for cost-sensitive time-efficient hazard classification of new chemicals: The case of skin sensitization.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17717

Marko Raseta, Jon Pitchford, James Cussens, John Doe

{"title":"Integrated testing strategies for cost-sensitive time-efficient hazard classification of new chemicals: The case of skin sensitization.","authors":"Marko Raseta, Jon Pitchford, James Cussens, John Doe","doi":"10.1111/risa.17717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17717","url":null,"abstract":"We offer an alternative approach to toxicological risk assessment of new chemicals. We combine Operations Research techniques with those from Machine Learning to tackle the decision-making process. More specifically, we use Markov decision processes and Bayesian networks to derive the optimal cost-sensitive time-efficient Integrated Testing Strategies for chemical hazard classification under minimal expected cost in a mathematically rigorous fashion. We develop Bayesian networks which outperform state-of-the-art mechanistic causal models previously reported. More specifically, these models exhibit accuracy of 90% and sensitivity and specificity of 93% and 84%, respectively. Moreover, the inferred Bayesian networks are of considerably simpler structure as they comprise only the permeation coefficient, octanol/water coefficient, and TIMES software compared to their counterparts already in print, which comprise 15 descriptors. We use these simplified causal models to study the effect of varying misclassification costs on the nature of the optimal policy by means of sensitivity analysis. We note such analysis was previously computationally infeasible due to the fact that the variables which comprised the mechanistic model were categorical assuming a large number of possible values. We find that a variety of optimal policies can emerge subject to different misclassification costs assumed. Theoretical modeling framework developed is illustrated on the concrete example of hazard classification of skin allergens of previously unknown toxicological characteristics via integrating data obtained from in silico assays alone thus contributing to the literature of toxicological decision making based on nonanimal tests.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143441727","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Behavioral validation for a game-theoretic model of attacker strategic decisions, signaling, and deterrence in multi-layer security for soft targets.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17720

Kevin Kapadia, Ian Unson, Katie Byrd, Jun Zhuang, Richard John

{"title":"Behavioral validation for a game-theoretic model of attacker strategic decisions, signaling, and deterrence in multi-layer security for soft targets.","authors":"Kevin Kapadia, Ian Unson, Katie Byrd, Jun Zhuang, Richard John","doi":"10.1111/risa.17720","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17720","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding what factors influence an attacker's decision to attack a soft target is important for allocating resources effectively to defend valuable targets. In this study, we aim to validate a game-theoretic model that explores the relationship between the reward and probability of successfully attacking through multiple layers of defense. We created multiple scenarios corresponding to each of four game-theoretic cases, resulting in a 2 × 2 factorial design (defended vs. undefended targets X low vs. high expected values [EVs] for attackers). We recruited 454 US adults from Prolific.com to decide whether to attack for a series of 24 scenarios, which varied the probability of success, the magnitude of reward, and whether Layer 1 was signaled to be defended or not. Results were generally consistent with the game model predictions, including a greater tendency to attack undefended targets with a higher EV. Targets with a low probability of success and greater reward were less likely to be attacked than targets with a higher probability of success and smaller reward. Additionally, participants with a higher self-reported risk-taking were significantly more likely to attack for a given trial compared to participants with lower self-reported risk-taking. This validated game model can be used as a tool to help stakeholders identify where threats are the most likely to occur based on inherent defenses and appeal to attackers.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143425640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An uncertainty-based risk perspective on risk perception and communication: Opportunities for new empirical-based research.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70001

Terje Aven

引用次数: 0

The taxonomy of risky activities and technologies: Revisiting the 1978 psychological dimensions of perceptions of technological risks.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17718

Joanna Sokolowska, Zofia Rey

{"title":"The taxonomy of risky activities and technologies: Revisiting the 1978 psychological dimensions of perceptions of technological risks.","authors":"Joanna Sokolowska, Zofia Rey","doi":"10.1111/risa.17718","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17718","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to replicate the original study by Fischhoff et al. (1978) and its replication by Fox-Glassman and Weber (2016) and to examine whether risk perceptions for the previously studied activities and technologies have changed over the past 40 years, especially when activities/technologies related to contemporary concerns are included. To achieve this goal, the list of activities/technologies has been modified. To facilitate the analysis of individual data, all participants were asked to rate the benefits and risks of 24 activities. The within-participant approach was also used to achieve the second objective of our study: to analyze the relationship between perceived benefits and risks. In summary, the design of this study differed from previous studies in the following ways: (1) Nine activities/technologies were added related to contemporary concerns such as global warming and fake news on the Internet; (2) all participants rated both benefits and risks; (3) data were collected online (as in the 2016 study); (4) the study was conducted by Prolific with a sample size large enough to detect medium-size effects (n = 382). The two-factor structure proposed by Fischhoff et al.-unknown risk and dread risk-was confirmed on aggregated data for the new set of hazards, which included novel hazards. At the level of individual data, modest support for this structure was observed, and a very strong inverse relationship between perceived benefits and risks was observed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Who views what from whom? Social media exposure and the Chinese public's risk perceptions of climate change.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17716

Jiayu Huang, Yumei Bu

{"title":"Who views what from whom? Social media exposure and the Chinese public's risk perceptions of climate change.","authors":"Jiayu Huang, Yumei Bu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17716","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17716","url":null,"abstract":"The Chinese public is increasingly experiencing the local impacts of climate change, whereas the government downplays its domestic effects and critical opinions on environmental governance. As climate change perceptions are crucial for individual risk management, adaptation, and collective climate actions, it is vital to explore how these perceptions are shaped. Given the increasing significance of social media in climate change discourse, this study employs survey data from the 2021 Environmental Risk Perceptions and Environmental Behaviors of Urban Residents Project to investigate how social media exposure influences risk perceptions of climate change among the Chinese public. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework, this study examines the effect of exposure to environmental information, exposure to opinion diversity, individuals' social media network ties to environmental opinion leaders, and the interaction between social media exposure and cultural values. The results indicate that in the contexts where climate change is neither politically divisive nor openly debated, social media exposure to diverse opinions and social media network ties to environmental scholars positively predict risk perceptions. Additionally, egalitarianism and fatalism are found to moderate the effect of these connections with environmental scholars. This study extends previous research, which focuses largely on the association between the frequency of social media exposure and risk perceptions of climate change, by revealing a more comprehensive and nuanced process that links social media exposure to climate change perceptions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143370402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0