Risk Analysis最新文献_第4页

The whistle-blower effect vs. the cry-wolf effect: A game analysis framework for collaborative epidemic information governance. 举报人效应vs.狼效应：协同疫情信息治理的博弈分析框架。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17702

Dehai Liu, Kun Qian, Huang Ding

{"title":"The whistle-blower effect vs. the cry-wolf effect: A game analysis framework for collaborative epidemic information governance.","authors":"Dehai Liu, Kun Qian, Huang Ding","doi":"10.1111/risa.17702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17702","url":null,"abstract":"The unpredictability of the epidemics caused by new, unknown viruses, combined with differing responsibilities among government departments, often leads to a prisoner's dilemma in epidemic information governance. In this context, the whistle-blower effect in the health departments leads to delayed reporting to avoid potential retaliation, and the cry-wolf effect in the administrative departments results in sustained observation to avoid ineffective warnings. To address these challenges, we employ game theory to analyze the dynamics of epidemic information governance and focus on two external governance mechanisms-superior accountability and media supervision-that can help resolve the prisoner's dilemma during and after an outbreak. Our analysis indicates that it is necessary to increase the strategic coordination of whistle-blowers in the short-term decision-making during the outbreak. From a long-term evolution perspective, maintaining optimal levels of superior accountability and media supervision is essential to overcoming the prisoner's dilemma. Media supervision works more slowly in the implement effectiveness than more direct superior accountability. This paper highlights the crucial roles of the whistle-blower effect and the cry-wolf effect in coordination failures of epidemic information governance during outbreaks of unknown viruses. It clarifies the strategic coordination pathways between expert systems and bureaucratic systems and emphasizes the importance of superior accountability and media supervision to enable effective, collaborative epidemic information governance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The coronavirus outbreak calls for epidemic catastrophe insurance: Evidence from China. 冠状病毒爆发需要流行病巨灾保险：来自中国的证据。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17700

Yinghui Wang, Jianping Li, Xiaoqian Zhu

{"title":"The coronavirus outbreak calls for epidemic catastrophe insurance: Evidence from China.","authors":"Yinghui Wang, Jianping Li, Xiaoqian Zhu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17700","url":null,"abstract":"The COVID-19 shows significant \"catastrophe\" characteristics. It has put tremendous pressure on various countries' government finances. A few studies have realized that insurance could be applied in the rescue of catastrophic epidemics to relieve government pressure and improve rescue efficiency. However, most of these studies are based on qualitative analysis, with few quantitative calculations to prove whether it is feasible. Therefore, this article discusses the insurability of epidemic catastrophe insurance and proposes a novel quantitative methodology that measures insurance funds, estimates pandemic-induced losses, and integrates reinsurance analysis to evaluate its effectiveness. Based on epidemic loss data collected from public information in China, the empirical study shows that China's epidemic catastrophe insurance fund can reach 50 billion yuan 5 years after its establishment and over 120 billion 10 years later, which can cover the losses caused by mild and severe epidemics. The epidemic catastrophe fund is capable of meeting claims requirements and effectively covering epidemics of varying severities. Furthermore, the reinsurance model demonstrates that insurers can transfer risks at a relatively reasonable cost, thereby covering losses from extreme epidemics. The findings reveal the effectiveness of epidemic catastrophe insurance, suggesting that worldwide countries incorporate epidemics into their catastrophe insurance to aid government in responding to future catastrophic epidemics.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143010895","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Toward risk analysis of the impact of artificial intelligence on the deliberate biological threat landscape. 对人工智能对蓄意生物威胁景观影响的风险分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17691

Matthew E Walsh

引用次数: 0

Evaluating compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1540 on nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction. 评估对联合国安理会关于不扩散大规模杀伤性武器的第1540号决议的遵守情况。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17697

John Holmes, Detlof von Winterfeldt

引用次数: 0

Controlling mission hazards through integrated abort and spare support optimization. 通过综合中止和备用支援优化控制任务危险。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17696

Li Yang, Fanping Wei, Xiaobing Ma, Qingan Qiu

{"title":"Controlling mission hazards through integrated abort and spare support optimization.","authors":"Li Yang, Fanping Wei, Xiaobing Ma, Qingan Qiu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17696","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17696","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the risk management challenges associated with safety-critical systems required to execute specific missions. The working component experiences degradation governed by a continuous-time discrete-state Markov chain, whose failure leads to an immediate system breakdown and safety losses. To enhance system survivability, a limited number of identical spares are available for online replacement throughout the mission. At the same time, the mission abort action arises promptly upon encountering excessive safety hazards. To strike an optimal balance between mission completion and system survivability, we delve into the adaptive scheduling of component replacements and mission termination decisions. The joint decision problem of interest constitutes a finite-time Markov decision process with resource limitation, under which we analyze a series of structural properties related to spare availability and component conditions. In particular, we establish structured control-limit policies for both spare replacement and mission termination decisions. For comparison purposes, we evaluate the performance of various heuristic policies analytically. Numerical experiments conducted on the driver system of radar equipment validate the superior model performance in enhancing operational performance while simultaneously mitigating hazard risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142927546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling defensive resource allocation in multilayered systems under probabilistic and strategic risks. 概率和战略风险下多层系统中防御资源分配的建模。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15070

Zhiyuan Wei, Jun Zhuang

{"title":"Modeling defensive resource allocation in multilayered systems under probabilistic and strategic risks.","authors":"Zhiyuan Wei, Jun Zhuang","doi":"10.1111/risa.15070","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15070","url":null,"abstract":"Confronting the continuing risk of an attack, security systems have adopted target-hardening strategies through the allocation of security measures. Most previous work on defensive resource allocation considers the security system as a monolithic architecture. However, systems such as schools are typically characterized by multiple layers, where each layer is interconnected to help prevent single points of failure. In this paper, we study the defensive resource allocation problem in a multilayered system. We develop two new resource allocation models accounting for probabilistic and strategic risks, and provide analytical solutions and illustrative examples. We use real data for school shootings to illustrate the performance of the models, where the optimal investment strategies and sensitivity analysis are presented. We show that the defender would invest more in defending outer layers over inner layers in the face of probabilistic risks. While countering strategic risks, the defender would split resources in each layer to make the attacker feel indifferent between any individual layer. This paper provides new insights on resource allocation in layered systems to better enhance the overall security of the system.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"177-193"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141591252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The low-carbon risk society: Dilemmas of risk-risk tradeoffs in energy innovations, transitions, and climate policy. 低碳风险社会：能源创新、转型和气候政策中的风险权衡困境。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14667

Benjamin K Sovacool

{"title":"The low-carbon risk society: Dilemmas of risk-risk tradeoffs in energy innovations, transitions, and climate policy.","authors":"Benjamin K Sovacool","doi":"10.1111/risa.14667","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14667","url":null,"abstract":"As countries and communities grapple with climate change, they seek to rapidly decarbonize their economies and cultures. A low-carbon future will likely depend on more distributed solar energy, the electrification of mobility, and more efficient homes and buildings. But what emergent risks are evident within this low-carbon society? This exploratory study first reviews the existing literature to identify 75 risk-risk tradeoffs by their category, medium of distribution, and type. It builds on these 75 examples to apply a typology of Risk Offsets, Risk Substitution, Risk Transfer, and Risk Transformation. Based on extensive document analysis, it applies that typology to three low-carbon innovations: solar energy, battery electric vehicles, and building energy efficiency retrofits, identifying 36 distinct risk-risk tradeoffs in total. As such, the paper moves to discuss complexities and challenges in risk management. In doing so, it calls for a more refined risk assessment that better accounts for decision-making considerations such as the magnitude or probability of risk, size of population exposed, certainty in risk estimation, severity of adverse outcome, distributional considerations, and the timing of risk impacts. It also summarizes emergent research gaps. Risk management in the context of climate action becomes a three-dimensional chess game of weighing risk transmission, risk mediums, and risk categories.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"78-107"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735347/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141470534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A novel sequential risk assessment model for analyzing commercial aviation accidents: Soft computing perspective. 用于分析商业航空事故的新型顺序风险评估模型：软计算视角。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14486

Amirhossein Nosrati Malekjahan, Ali Husseinzadeh Kashan, Seyed Mojtaba Sajadi

{"title":"A novel sequential risk assessment model for analyzing commercial aviation accidents: Soft computing perspective.","authors":"Amirhossein Nosrati Malekjahan, Ali Husseinzadeh Kashan, Seyed Mojtaba Sajadi","doi":"10.1111/risa.14486","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14486","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the importance of the commercial aviation system and, also, the existence of countless accidents and unfortunate occurrences in this industry, there has been a need for a structured approach to deal with them in recent years. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive and sequential model for analyzing commercial aviation accidents based on historical data and reports. The model first uses the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) technique to determine and score existing risks; then, the risks are prioritized using two multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methods and two novel and innovative techniques, including ranking based on intuitionistic fuzzy risk priority number and ranking based on the vague sets. These techniques are based in an intuitionistic fuzzy environment to handle uncertainties and the FMEA features. A fuzzy cognitive map is utilized to evaluate existing interactions among the risk factors, and additionally, various scenarios are implemented to analyze the role of each risk, group of risks, and behavior of the system in different conditions. Finally, the model is performed for a real case study to clarify its applicability and the two novel risk prioritization techniques. Although this model can be used for other similar complex transportation systems with adequate data, it is mainly employed to illustrate the most critical risks and for analyzing existing relationships among the concepts of the system.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"128-153"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735343/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141559633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to benzophenone derivatives in cereals in Taiwan. 台湾谷物中二苯甲酮衍生物膳食暴露的概率风险评估。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14352

Yu-Fang Huang, Yun-Ru Ju, Hsin-Chang Chen

{"title":"Probabilistic risk assessment of dietary exposure to benzophenone derivatives in cereals in Taiwan.","authors":"Yu-Fang Huang, Yun-Ru Ju, Hsin-Chang Chen","doi":"10.1111/risa.14352","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14352","url":null,"abstract":"Benzophenone (BP) and BP derivatives (BPDs) are widely used as ultraviolet (UV) stabilizers in food packaging materials and as photoinitiators in UV-curable inks for printing on food-contact materials. However, our knowledge regarding the sources and risks of dietary exposure to BP and BPDs in cereals remains limited, which prompted us to conduct this study. We measured the levels of BP and nine BPDs-BP-1, BP-2, BP-3, BP-8, 2-hydroxybenzophenone, 4-hydroxybenzophenone, 4-methylbenzophenone (4-MBP), methyl-2-benzoylbenzoate, and 4-benzoylbiphenyl-in three types of cereals (rice flour, oatmeal, and cornflakes; 180 samples in total). A Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MC) simulation approach was used for deriving the posterior distributions of BP and BPD residues. This approach helped in addressing the uncertainty in probabilistic distribution for the sampled data under the detection limit. Through an MC simulation, we calculated the daily exposure levels of dietary BP and BPDs and corresponding health risks. The results revealed the ubiquitous presence of BP, BP-3, and 4-MBP in cereals. Older adults (aged >65 years) had the highest (97.5 percentile) lifetime carcinogenic risk for BP exposure through cereals (9.41 × 10-7), whereas children aged 0-3 years had the highest (97.5 percentile) hazard indices for BPD exposure through cereals (2.5 × 10-2). Nevertheless, across age groups, the lifetime carcinogenic risks of BP exposure through cereals were acceptable, and the hazard indices for BPD exposure through cereals were <1. Therefore, BPD exposure through cereals may not be a health concern for individuals in Taiwan.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"5-13"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735342/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141459056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia. 对蓝舌病病毒通过 Culicoides spp.的远距离风传播传入欧洲大陆的定量风险评估：撒丁岛案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14345

Amandine Bibard, Davide Martinetti, Aymeric Giraud, Albert Picado, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Thibaud Porphyre

{"title":"Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia.","authors":"Amandine Bibard, Davide Martinetti, Aymeric Giraud, Albert Picado, Karine Chalvet-Monfray, Thibaud Porphyre","doi":"10.1111/risa.14345","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14345","url":null,"abstract":"Europe faces regular introductions and reintroductions of bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes, most recently exemplified by the incursion of serotype 3 in the Netherlands. Although the long-distance wind dispersal of the disease vector, Culicoides spp., is recognized as a virus introduction pathway, it remains understudied in risk assessments. A Quantitative Risk Assessment framework was developed to estimate the risk of BTV-3 incursion into mainland Europe from Sardinia, where the virus has been present since 2018. We used an atmospheric transport model (HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) to infer the probability of airborne dispersion of the insect vector. Epidemiological disease parameters quantified the virus prevalence in vector population in Sardinia and its potential first transmission after introduction in a new area. When assuming a 24h maximal flight duration, the risk of BTV introduction from Sardinia is limited to the Mediterranean Basin, mainly affecting the southwestern area of the Italian Peninsula, Sicily, Malta, and Corsica. The risk extends to the northern and central parts of Italy, Balearic archipelago, and mainland France and Spain, mostly when maximal flight duration is longer than 24h. Additional knowledge on vector flight conditions and Obsoletus complex-specific parameters could improve the robustness of the model. Providing both spatial and temporal insights into BTV introduction risks, our framework is a key tool to guide global surveillance and preparedness against epizootics.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"108-127"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735344/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141493235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0