Risk Analysis最新文献_第4页

A novel risk communication model for online public opinion dissemination that integrates the SIR and Markov chains. 一种融合SIR链和马尔可夫链的网络舆论传播风险沟通模型。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70068

Qian Zhou, Jianping Li, Dengsheng Wu, Xin Long Xu

{"title":"A novel risk communication model for online public opinion dissemination that integrates the SIR and Markov chains.","authors":"Qian Zhou, Jianping Li, Dengsheng Wu, Xin Long Xu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70068","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70068","url":null,"abstract":"With the rapid advancement of the internet, particularly the widespread adoption of social media, online public opinion at universities has emerged as a critical issue for both societal and educational governance. Research on the dissemination of public opinion-based risks is often based on infectious disease transmission models. However, these studies largely overlook the stochastic nature of public opinion communication and rely on subjective assumptions regarding the size of the opinion-sensitive population. To address these limitations, we propose a novel public opinion risk dissemination model that integrates the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) framework with Markov chain theory and develops a PIA to quantitatively estimate the scale of the opinion-sensitive population. Through intervention analysis of public opinion, we examined the impacts of the transmission rate, immune rate, and number of susceptible individuals on the velocity, duration, and scope of public opinion dissemination. The results indicate that significant differences exist in the size of the opinion-sensitive population and the transmission rate across different public opinion events. Furthermore, reducing the size of the opinion-sensitive population is a core strategy for suppressing the size of the communication peak, increasing the immune rate is a key measure for shortening the communication cycle and lowering the transmission rate is an important approach for delaying the time to reach the peak of public opinion, though excessively low transmission rates should be avoided. On the basis of in-depth analyses of the mechanisms underlying public opinion risk communication, precise early warning and intervention strategies for universities and relevant administrative bodies are established to enhance the effectiveness of public opinion management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2908-2925"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144508017","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the relationship between disaster risk science and risk science. 论灾害风险科学与风险科学的关系。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70045

Terje Aven

引用次数: 0

Earthquake resilience and public engagement: A social media perspective. 地震恢复力与公众参与：社会媒体视角。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70041

Hongbing Liu, Ziqiang Han

{"title":"Earthquake resilience and public engagement: A social media perspective.","authors":"Hongbing Liu, Ziqiang Han","doi":"10.1111/risa.70041","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70041","url":null,"abstract":"Global earthquake resilience enhancement necessitates a cohesive international community and proactive public engagement. The ubiquity of social media, and its significant user data generation, positions it as a formidable tool in emergency management. This article scrutinizes the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake, employing an analysis of over 150,000 Weibo posts to assess Chinese netizens' attention toward this nondomestic disaster. Findings reveal substantial social media engagement, with a distinct disparity between posts and comments. Posts provide a comprehensive chronicle of the earthquake response, encompassing disaster reporting, Chinese rescue teams, international emergency response, and life-saving efforts. Comments serve as a conduit for emotional expression, focusing on prayers for the disaster-stricken area, the tragic loss of a Turkish TV producer, expressions of sympathy and donations, the sense of helplessness evoked by natural disasters, and prayers for the rescue team and response comparison. The public engagement evolved from initial symbolic participation to more substantive involvement in the later stages, reflecting the process of both public engagement and the enhancement of resilience awareness. Sentiment and emotion analysis indicate that, subsequent to the initial 3-day period dedicated to disaster reporting, the sentiment within the posts was predominantly positive, while comments exhibited a more negative sentiment, primarily characterized by \"sadness\" and \"disgust.\" Spatial analysis revealed amplified attention toward the disaster in Sichuan Province and other regions with superior internet access. The article also discerned that comments exhibited a notably shorter lifespan than posts. This article proffers a novel perspective on the analysis of foreign disasters and furnishes invaluable insights for the enhancement of global earthquake resilience through public engagement.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2667-2684"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144029923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts? 人工智能能帮助作者更好地准备风险科学论文吗？

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70055

Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu

{"title":"Can AI help authors prepare better risk science manuscripts?","authors":"Louis Anthony Cox, Terje Aven, Seth Guikema, Charles N Haas, James H Lambert, Karen Lowrie, George Maldonado, Felicia Wu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70055","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70055","url":null,"abstract":"Scientists, publishers, and journal editors are wondering how, whether, and to what extent artificial intelligence (AI) tools might soon help to advance the rigor, efficiency, and value of scientific peer review. Will AI provide timely, useful feedback that helps authors improve their manuscripts while avoiding the biases and inconsistencies of human reviewers? Or might it instead generate low-quality verbiage, add noise and errors, reinforce flawed reasoning, and erode trust in the review process? This perspective reports on evaluations of two experimental AI systems: (i) a \"Screener\" available at http://screener.riskanalysis.cloud/ that gives authors feedback on whether a draft paper (or abstract, proposal, etc.) appears to be a fit for the journal Risk Analysis, based on the guidance to authors provided by the journal (https://www.sra.org/journal/what-makes-a-good-risk-analysis-article/); and (ii) a more ambitious \"Reviewer\" (http://aia1.moirai-solutions.com/) that gives substantive technical feedback and recommends how to improve the clarity of methodology and the interpretation of results. The evaluations were conducted by a convenience sample of Risk Analysis Area Editors (AEs) and authors, including two authors of manuscripts in progress and four authors of papers that had already been published. The Screener was generally rated as useful. It has been deployed at Risk Analysis since January of 2025. On the other hand, the Reviewer had mixed ratings, ranging from strongly positive to strongly negative. This perspective describes both the lessons learned and potential next steps in making AI tools useful to authors prior to peer review by human experts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2471-2493"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144249444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling antimicrobial fate in the circular food system. 模拟循环食品系统中的抗菌命运。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70044

Weixin Huang, Marlous Focker, H J van der Fels-Klerx

引用次数: 0

Dynamics of risk perception altered by cognitive hazard typification: A case of naturalness and immediacy of effect in Japan. 由认知危险分类改变的风险感知动态：日本自然和直接影响的一个案例。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70036

Kenta Mitsushita, Shin Murakoshi

{"title":"Dynamics of risk perception altered by cognitive hazard typification: A case of naturalness and immediacy of effect in Japan.","authors":"Kenta Mitsushita, Shin Murakoshi","doi":"10.1111/risa.70036","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70036","url":null,"abstract":"This study investigated how the structure of risk perception differs according to the type determined by perceived hazard properties (cognitive hazard type) by applying three-mode principal component analysis (3MPCA). A total of 295 respondents completed a questionnaire consisting of risk characteristics and risk perception scales for 12 natural, technology, and social activity hazards, differentiated by naturalness and immediacy of effects. Three components were extracted by 3MPCA in scale (\"dread,\" \"passive,\" and \"unknown\") and three in target hazards (\"slow-artificial hazard,\" \"fast-artificial hazard,\" and \"natural hazard\"), which were interpreted as three cognitive hazard types. Six components were extracted and interpreted using a core array. Multiple regression analysis of risk perception with individual components revealed that the influence of risk characteristics judgment differed according to cognitive hazard type. \"Dread\" affected all hazard types, whereas \"passive\" affected \"fast-artificial hazard\" and \"natural hazard.\" Furthermore, for \"natural hazard,\" \"passive\" had negative and positive effects on personal risk assessment and general assessment, respectively. These results suggest the necessity of considering cognitive hazard typification to investigate the structure of risk perception phenomena and the usefulness of applying 3MPCA to the psychometric paradigm.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2580-2596"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474525/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143982028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A comprehensive CREAM method for human reliability analysis of armored vehicle crews based on cognitive performance and operational environment. 基于认知性能和作战环境的装甲车辆乘员人员可靠性综合分析方法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70050

Qingyang Huang, Yuning Wei, Jingyuan Zhang, Xiucheng Xu, Xiaoping Jin

{"title":"A comprehensive CREAM method for human reliability analysis of armored vehicle crews based on cognitive performance and operational environment.","authors":"Qingyang Huang, Yuning Wei, Jingyuan Zhang, Xiucheng Xu, Xiaoping Jin","doi":"10.1111/risa.70050","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70050","url":null,"abstract":"Given that human error is the primary factor causing combat task failures in armored vehicles, human reliability analysis (HRA) is very significant in enhancing human reliability and work efficiency for crews. To evaluate human reliability quantitatively and accurately, this study proposes a comprehensive cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). First, the weighting factors of different common performance conditions (CPCs) under uncertain conditions are derived by integrating the modified decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory-based analytic network process with linguistic D numbers. Second, considering the joint effects of cognitive performance and operational environment on crew behaviors, a cognitive performance adjustment coefficient is introduced to improve the conventional CREAM method. Third, group best-worst method and best-worst method based on nonlinear goal programming are used to determine the weighting factors of human intrinsic factors (HIFs). The results of the cross-platform combat task simulation show that the cumulative human error probability (HEP) of crews by this method is estimated as 26%, while the average HEP of the other HRA methods is approximately 24%. The HEP value has improved by 7% on average. The failure in judgment is the most critical contributor to human errors. Finally, according to the sensitivity analysis, the HEPs in different task processes with various CPCs and HIFs have significant differences (p < 0.01). The effect of the change in CPCs on the quantitative assessment of HEPs remains much steadier than that of the HIFs. The proposed method provides an effective method for the quantitative evaluation of human failure probabilities for crews in combat missions, which can decrease the security risk.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2736-2758"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Medical decision-making under risk and uncertainty: Anesthetists' decision to proceed with surgery. 风险和不确定性下的医疗决策：麻醉师进行手术的决定。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70027

Zijing Yang, Yaniv Hanoch, Zvi Safra, Tigran Melkonyan, Olivera Potparic, James Palmer

{"title":"Medical decision-making under risk and uncertainty: Anesthetists' decision to proceed with surgery.","authors":"Zijing Yang, Yaniv Hanoch, Zvi Safra, Tigran Melkonyan, Olivera Potparic, James Palmer","doi":"10.1111/risa.70027","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70027","url":null,"abstract":"There is a paucity of work examining anesthetists' willingness to proceed as attending anesthetists (hereafter, WTP) in response to different risky medical conditions. Earlier studies offer only a partial and indirect explanation as to why variations in WTP exist. We evaluated whether psychological factors of risk-taking tendencies, attitudes toward uncertainty, sense of regret, and demographic variables, particularly experience and gender, might clarify the disparities in an anesthetist's WTP. Anesthetists from two National Health Service Trusts in England (i.e., hospitals) viewed, in random order, three different realistic scenarios (representing low-, medium-, and high-risk cases) and were asked to indicate how likely they were to agree to proceed as the attending anesthetist. They also answered questions evaluating their risk-taking tendencies, comfort with uncertainty, and tendency to experience regret. Anesthetists varied in their WTP. Importantly, our data revealed that a sense of uncertainty and regret, but not a risk attitude, could help explain these variations. Female anesthetists were less likely to agree to proceed as attending anesthetists regardless of the level of risk or individual differences, but we found no relationship between levels of experience and WTP. Examining anesthetists' WTP in isolation provides an important but only partial picture. Gaining a better understanding of the factors that drive decision-making is vital for improving both training and practice. In particular, given the high proportion of women in anesthesia, the gender difference found in this study has important implications for anesthetic training and practice.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2771-2789"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474527/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144120811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70039

Yanmengqian Zhou, Michelle L Acevedo Callejas, Erina L Farrell

{"title":"Addressing related but competing risks: Effectiveness of an antibiotic stewardship intervention during COVID-19.","authors":"Yanmengqian Zhou, Michelle L Acevedo Callejas, Erina L Farrell","doi":"10.1111/risa.70039","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70039","url":null,"abstract":"Previous research on risk information behaviors has primarily focused on responses to a single target risk, without considering how related risks might influence information behaviors regarding the target risk. Guided by the Risk Information Seeking and Processing (RISP) model and drawing on theory and research taking a social context approach to risk communication, we developed a video-based intervention for promoting favorable antibiotic risk information behaviors that targets key predictors-including perceived risk, information insufficiency, and perceived information gathering capacity (PIGC)-theorized in RISP and addresses COVID-19 as a related risk factor. Experimentally testing the effectiveness of this video against a previously developed video that did not reference COVID-19 and a control group with no video exposure, we found that both videos increased perceived risk from antibiotics and PIGC. Relative to the original video, the extended, COVID-contextualized video led to greater knowledge about the ineffectiveness and harm of taking antibiotics for COVID-19. Results from structural equation modeling showed that knowledge about the ineffectiveness directly decreased information-avoidance intention. Knowledge about the harm, on the other hand, indirectly increased information seeking and reduced avoidance intention by heightening perceived risk, which led to negative affect and, in turn, elevated information insufficiency. In addition, information-seeking intention increased with greater PIGC. These relationships further varied by fear of COVID-19, with antibiotic risk information behaviors among high-fear individuals being more strongly influenced by COVID-related judgments than those with low fear. Implications of the findings for message designs in multirisk situations are discussed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2597-2609"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144010094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why ignore expiry dates on cosmetics? A qualitative study of perceived risk and its implications for cosmetics producers and regulators. 为什么忽略化妆品的有效期？感知风险的定性研究及其对化妆品生产商和监管机构的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70040

Yujiao Wang, Gary Davies, James Derbyshire, Farid Ullah

{"title":"Why ignore expiry dates on cosmetics? A qualitative study of perceived risk and its implications for cosmetics producers and regulators.","authors":"Yujiao Wang, Gary Davies, James Derbyshire, Farid Ullah","doi":"10.1111/risa.70040","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70040","url":null,"abstract":"Consumers often use cosmetics long after their expiry date, despite the health risk. This paper aims to understand why and to suggest policy changes that can promote safer practices in cosmetics use. This is the first study to investigate risk perception in relation to expired cosmetics. Thirty-three semistructured interviews with both cosmetics users and employees of cosmetics companies were conducted in the United Kingdom and China. Perceived risk theory was found to be a useful analytical lens. Eight risk factors emerged from the data, including two not previously identified. Combinations of risk were also found to be valuable in explaining consumer attitudes to cosmetic expiry dates, which suggests that perceived risk factors interact with each other to create an emergent perception of risk, requiring an integrated understanding. While physical, performance and self-brand connection risk can promote adherence to an expiry date, other risk factors such as financial and social risk can override such concerns, leading to the expiry date being ignored. Implications for suppliers' and regulators' policies and risk-communication strategies are identified that may help reduce the risks being taken by cosmetics users.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2610-2620"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474526/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144043883","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0