Risk Analysis最新文献_第4页

Frontier AI developers need an internal audit function. 前沿人工智能开发者需要内部审计职能。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17665

Jonas Schuett

{"title":"Frontier AI developers need an internal audit function.","authors":"Jonas Schuett","doi":"10.1111/risa.17665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17665","url":null,"abstract":"This article argues that frontier artificial intelligence (AI) developers need an internal audit function. First, it describes the role of internal audit in corporate governance: internal audit evaluates the adequacy and effectiveness of a company's risk management, control, and governance processes. It is organizationally independent from senior management and reports directly to the board of directors, typically its audit committee. In the Institute of Internal Auditors' Three Lines Model, internal audit serves as the third line and is responsible for providing assurance to the board, whereas the combined assurance framework highlights the need to coordinate the activities of internal and external assurance providers. Next, the article provides an overview of key governance challenges in frontier AI development: Dangerous capabilities can arise unpredictably and undetected; it is difficult to prevent a deployed model from causing harm; frontier models can proliferate rapidly; it is inherently difficult to assess frontier AI risks; and frontier AI developers do not seem to follow best practices in risk governance. Finally, the article discusses how an internal audit function could address some of these challenges: Internal audit could identify ineffective risk management practices; it could ensure that the board of directors has a more accurate understanding of the current level of risk and the adequacy of the developer's risk management practices; and it could serve as a contact point for whistleblowers. But frontier AI developers should also be aware of key limitations: Internal audit adds friction; it can be captured by senior management; and the benefits depend on the ability of individuals to identify ineffective practices. In light of rapid progress in AI research and development, frontier AI developers need to strengthen their risk governance. Instead of reinventing the wheel, they should follow existing best practices. Although this might not be sufficient, they should not skip this obvious first step.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473784","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An adaptation and validation of disaster resilience scale based on community engagement theory. 基于社区参与理论的抗灾能力量表的调整和验证。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17666

Tuba Gokmenoglu, Elif Dasci Sonmez

{"title":"An adaptation and validation of disaster resilience scale based on community engagement theory.","authors":"Tuba Gokmenoglu, Elif Dasci Sonmez","doi":"10.1111/risa.17666","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17666","url":null,"abstract":"This study aimed to adapt and validate the Disaster Resilience Scale, originally developed by Becker et al. and revised by Paton et al., for assessing disaster resilience within the Turkish school community with a focus on Community Engagement Theory. This theory emphasizes the role of community involvement in disaster resilience at various levels, including the individual, community, and societal/institutional. The study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, data from 428 teachers were analyzed to assess the validity and reliability of the scale's Turkish version and its alignment with dimensions. In the second phase, data from 1,422 teachers were used to further verify the reliability of using the Generalizability Theory test, and confirm validity through confirmatory factor analysis. The results confirmed that the Turkish version of the scale, with its 12 factors and 52 items was valid and reliable. Cronbach's Alpha coefficients for the dimensions ranged from 0.80 to 0.91, indicating high reliability. The findings highlight the practical implications of adapting the DRS for enhancing disaster resilience in school communities and underscore the importance of community engagement in disaster preparedness and education.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Political identity and risk politics: Evidence from a pandemic. 政治认同与风险政治：大流行病的证据。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17654

Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker

{"title":"Political identity and risk politics: Evidence from a pandemic.","authors":"Eric D Raile, Pavielle Haines, Amber N W Raile, Elizabeth A Shanahan, David C W Parker","doi":"10.1111/risa.17654","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17654","url":null,"abstract":"The way political identity serves as a foundation for political polarization in the United States permits elites to extend conflict rapidly to new issue areas. Further, the types of cognitive mechanisms and shortcuts used in the politically polarized information environment are similar to some of those used in risk perception. Consequently, political elites may easily create partisan risk positions, largely through politically focused social amplification of risk. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a natural experiment for testing predictions about such risk politics. We asked questions about pandemic-related views, behaviors, and policies at the outset of the pandemic in April 2020 and again in September 2020 via public opinion surveys. Our data and analyses focus primarily on a single state, with some analysis extended to four states. We begin by demonstrating strong linkages between political partisan identification on the one hand and support for co-partisan elites, use of partisan information sources, and support for co-partisan policies on the other hand. We then find evidence that pandemic risk positions correspond with partisan information sources and find support for a mechanism involving partisan-tinted evaluation of elite cues. Partisan risk positions quickly became part of the larger polarized structure of political support and views. Finally, our evidence shows on the balance that partisan risk positions related to the pandemic coalesced and strengthened over time. Overall, while self-identified Democrats consistently viewed the coronavirus as the primary threat, self-identified Republicans quickly pivoted toward threats to their freedoms and to the economy.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142473785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty. 考虑到依赖性和不确定性，多源信息融合用于复杂项目的安全风险评估。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17651

Kai Guo, Limao Zhang

{"title":"Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty.","authors":"Kai Guo, Limao Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17651","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17651","url":null,"abstract":"The success of tunneling projects is crucial for infrastructure development. However, the potential leakage risk is particularly challenging due to the inherent uncertainties and fuzziness involved. To address this demanding challenge, a hybrid approach integrating the copula theory, cloud model, and risk matrix, is proposed. The dependence of multiple risk-related influential factors is explored by the construct of the copula-cloud model, and the diverse information is fused by applying the risk matrix to gain a crisp risk result. A case study is performed to test the applicability of the proposed approach, in which a risk index system consisting of nine critical factors is developed and Sobol-enabled global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is incorporated to investigate the contributions of different factors to the risk magnitude. Key findings are as follows: (1) Risk statuses of the studied three tunnel sections are perceived as under grade I (safe), II (low-risk), and III (medium-risk), respectively, and the waterproof material aspect is found prone to deteriorating the tunnel sections. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows for a better understanding of the trends in the risk statuses of the tunnel sections. (2) Strong interactions between influential factors exist and exert impacts on the final risk results, proving the necessity of studying the factor dependence. (3) The developed neutral risk matrix presents a strong robustness and displays a higher recognition capacity in risk assessment. The novelty of this research lies in the consideration of the dependence and uncertainty in multisource information fusion with a hybrid copula-cloud model, enabling to perform a robust risk assessment under different risk matrices with varying degrees of risk tolerance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad. 癌症患者与食用即食沙拉的决策分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17658

Carly B Gomez, Jade Mitchell, Bradley P Marks

{"title":"A decision analysis of cancer patients and the consumption of ready-to-eat salad.","authors":"Carly B Gomez, Jade Mitchell, Bradley P Marks","doi":"10.1111/risa.17658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17658","url":null,"abstract":"Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen of concern for cancer patients, who face higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population. The neutropenic diet (ND), which excludes fresh produce, is often utilized to mitigate this risk; however, an analysis weighing the theoretical listeriosis risk reduction of produce exclusion aspects of the ND and possible negative tradeoffs has never been conducted. Consequently, this work constructed decision analytic models using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to compare the impacts of the ND, such as increased neutropenic enterocolitis (NEC) likelihood, with three alternative dietary practices (safe food handling [SFH], surface blanching, and refrigeration only) across five age groups, for cancer patients who consume ready-to-eat salad. Less disruptive diets had fewer negative health impacts in all scenarios, with median alternative diet DALYs per person per chemotherapy cycle having lower values in terms of negative health outcomes (0.088-0.443) than the ND (0.619-3.102). DALYs were dominated by outcomes associated with NEC, which is more common in patients following the ND than in other diets. Switchover point analysis confirmed that, because of this discrepancy, there were no feasible values of other parameters that could justify the ND. Correspondingly, the sensitivity analysis indicated that NEC mortality rate and remaining life expectancy strongly affected DALYs, further illustrating the model's strong dependence on NEC outcomes. Given these findings, and the SFH's ease of implementation and high compliance rates, the SFH diet is recommended in place of the ND.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics. 通过结构分析和系统动力学对工业维护中的人为错误进行动态建模。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17652

Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast

{"title":"Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics.","authors":"Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi, Mostafa Kazemi, Alireza Pooya, Mahdi Doostparast","doi":"10.1111/risa.17652","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17652","url":null,"abstract":"Human error constitutes a significant cause of accidents across diverse industries, leading to adverse consequences and heightened disruptions in maintenance operations. Organizations can enhance their decision-making process by quantifying human errors and identifying the underlying influencing factors, thereby mitigating their repercussions. Consequently, it becomes crucial to examine the value of human error probability (HEP) during these activities. The objective of this paper is to determine and simulate HEP in maintenance tasks at a cement factory, utilizing performance shaping factors (PSFs). The research employs the cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis method to evaluate the dependencies, impacts, and relationships among the factors influencing human error. This approach classifies and assesses the dependencies and impacts of different factors on HEP, occupational accidents, and related costs. The study also underscores that PSFs can dynamically change under the influence of other variables, emphasizing the necessity to forecast the behavior of human error over time. Therefore, this paper utilizes the MICMAC method to analyze the interdependencies, relationships, and impact levels among different variables. These relationships are then utilized to optimize the implementation of the system dynamics (SD) method. An SD model is employed to forecast the system's behavior, and multiple scenarios are presented. By considering the HEP value, managers can adjust organizational conditions and personnel to ensure acceptability. The paper also presents various scenarios related to HEP to assist managers in making informed decisions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk communication and public response to potential radiation emergencies in New York City. 纽约市潜在辐射紧急情况的风险沟通和公众响应。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17657

Kuhika Gupta, Joseph Ripberger, Andrew Fox, Mark Maiello, Katie Peach, Hank Jenkins-Smith

{"title":"Risk communication and public response to potential radiation emergencies in New York City.","authors":"Kuhika Gupta, Joseph Ripberger, Andrew Fox, Mark Maiello, Katie Peach, Hank Jenkins-Smith","doi":"10.1111/risa.17657","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17657","url":null,"abstract":"Public knowledge and awareness about radiation (both natural and manmade) tend to be low, while perceived risk of radiation tends to be high. High perceptions of risk associated with radiation have been linked to the affect heuristic and general feelings of dread, which are often not proportionate to actual risk. For example, studies routinely show that members of the public rate the risk of radiation from nuclear power plants as significantly higher (and riskier) than radiation from medical X-rays. This disconnect can have implications for adoption of protective actions during a potential radiation emergency and the perceived efficacy of these actions. This study explores how risk communication efforts influence public risk perceptions, intended protective action, and perceived efficacy of those actions. Using unique data from a survey of New York City adults, we analyze how information provision using different formats-no information, an infographic, an informational video-impact perceptions and response to a hypothetical radiation emergency. We hypothesize that respondents who receive some information, either through the infographic or the video, will have higher perceived efficacy and are more likely to take protective action. Findings suggest that providing information about what to do during a radiation emergency has a statistically significant impact on both perceived efficacy and adoption of protective action. Respondents who saw the informational video were most likely to say that they would take the correct protective actions and had the highest perceived efficacy, followed by those who saw the infographic.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing social equity of federal disaster aid distribution: A nationwide analysis. 评估联邦灾害援助分配的社会公平性：全国性分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17660

Qing Miao, Meri Davlasheridze, Allison C Reilly

{"title":"Assessing social equity of federal disaster aid distribution: A nationwide analysis.","authors":"Qing Miao, Meri Davlasheridze, Allison C Reilly","doi":"10.1111/risa.17660","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17660","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we conduct the first comprehensive, nationwide assessment of social equity performance of multiple federal post- and pre-disaster assistance programs that differ in targeted recipients, project types, forms of aid, and funding requirements. We draw on the social equity and distributive justice theory to develop and test a set of hypotheses on the influence of program design and specificity on their aid distributional patterns and equity performance. The analysis uses panel data of about 3000 US counties to examine the relationship between a county's receipt of federal assistance and its recent disaster damage, socioeconomic, demographic, political, local government, and geographic characteristics in a two-stage random effects Tobit model. Expectedly, we find that post-disaster grants are largely driven by recent disaster damage, while damage is simultaneously influenced by local socioeconomic conditions. For all disaster programs, disproportionately more federal aid is allocated to populous counties. For programs geared toward state and local governments and targeting community recovery and mitigation, more aid is received by counties with better socioeconomic conditions. Conversely, for programs targeting individual relief and recovery, more aid is given to counties with lower incomes and greater social vulnerability. Results also indicate that counties located in high-risk regions receive greater outlays. These findings shed light on the varying degrees of social equity of federal disaster assistance programs tied to their cost-share requirement, funding caps, and inherent complexity of application procedures.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Identifying power outage hotspots to support risk management planning. 确定停电热点，支持风险管理规划。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17663

Kaia Stødle, Roger Flage, Seth D Guikema

引用次数: 0

Analysis of postdisaster economy using high-resolution disaster and economy simulations. 利用高分辨率灾害和经济模拟分析灾后经济。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17662

Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Muneo Hori, Yoshiki Ogawa

{"title":"Analysis of postdisaster economy using high-resolution disaster and economy simulations.","authors":"Amit Gill, Maddegedara Lalith, Muneo Hori, Yoshiki Ogawa","doi":"10.1111/risa.17662","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17662","url":null,"abstract":"We present an integrated framework that utilizes high-resolution seamless simulations of disasters and national economies for estimating the economic impacts of disasters. The framework consists of three components: a physics-based simulator to simulate the disaster and estimate the response of the infrastructure; a tool that estimates the losses suffered by the infrastructure based on its response; and an agent-based economic model (ABEM) that simulates the national economy considering the infrastructure damage and postdisaster decisions of the economic entities. The ABEM used in the framework has been implemented in a high-performance computing environment to simulate large economies at 1:1 scale. Furthermore, it has been calibrated to the Japanese economy using publicly available macroeconomic data and validated to the Japanese economy under the business-as-usual scenario. We demonstrate the integrated framework by simulating a potential Nankai-trough earthquake disaster and estimating its impacts on the Japanese economy. The seismic response of 1.8 million buildings of the Osaka-bay area has been estimated using a large-scale earthquake disaster simulator and corresponding repair costs are estimated using the Performance Assessment Calculation Tool. As per our estimates, repair costs amount to approximately 15 trillion Yen. Considering the investments made by impacted households and firms toward recovery, the postdisaster economy is simulated using the ABEM for 5 years under two recovery scenarios. Industrial production is expected to recover in three quarters whereas 10-13 quarters will be required to finish all the repair work.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142392973","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0