Risk Analysis最新文献_第5页

Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17709

Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka

{"title":"Posting environmental risk: Communicating with numerical and nonnumerical messaging across information modalities.","authors":"Megan L P Norman, Jiaqi Agnes Bao, Triwik Kurniasari, Chris Skurka","doi":"10.1111/risa.17709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17709","url":null,"abstract":"Risk communicators frequently engage members of the public through social media; therefore, it is important to understand how to effectively communicate risks about environmental and health issues. This experiment with U.S. adults (N = 737) explored how message features in risk-focused social media posts-namely, message modality (text-only posts or text with the inclusion of photographs or data presentations) and risk representation (numerical risk details or nonnumerical summaries of risk information)-influence risk perceptions, perceived message informativeness, and intentions to share the content. To do so, we drew from research on visual communication and research on numerical and nonnumerical representations of risk. We assessed the robustness of these effects across three environmental risk domains (asthma, heat waves, and vector-borne diseases). We found that compared to text-only messages, text with a data presentation (i.e., graph or table) led to enhanced risk perceptions, perceptions of informativeness, and sharing intentions. Relative to nonnumerical messages, numerical messages generated greater perceived risk, were rated as more informative, and elicited greater sharing intentions. Additionally, the effects of risk representation depended on participants' numeracy level, such that numerical messages (vs. nonnumerical) elicited greater sharing intentions and perceived informativeness among high-numeracy individuals but had no such effects for low-numeracy individuals. We also found some evidence that message effects on perceived informativeness differed based on risk topic. Our results suggest that communicators can consider designing social media risk messages with numerical details and data visualizations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk analysis approaches for microbial ingredients in microbial-based cleaning products.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17707

Diane Boesenberg, Chris Brueck, Cindy Chhuon, James Kim, Arthur J Miller, Gerard J Stijntjes, Heidi Vedel, Richard C Whiting, J Ian Van Trump

{"title":"Risk analysis approaches for microbial ingredients in microbial-based cleaning products.","authors":"Diane Boesenberg, Chris Brueck, Cindy Chhuon, James Kim, Arthur J Miller, Gerard J Stijntjes, Heidi Vedel, Richard C Whiting, J Ian Van Trump","doi":"10.1111/risa.17707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17707","url":null,"abstract":"Microbial-based cleaning products (MBCPs) are an emerging class of cleaning products that contain viable microorganisms, often bacteria or bacterial endospores, as intentionally added formulation ingredients for cleaning and/or odor control. Although several well-established methodologies exist to support risk analysis for conventional chemical-based cleaning products, at present there are no widely recognized methods or commonly utilized frameworks to support risk analysis for use of microbial ingredients present in MBCPs, specifically. The purpose of this work is to provide information to MBCP manufacturers and regulators that can be used to assist in developing their own approaches to MBCP risk assessment. As part of this assessment, potential hazards associated with use of bacterial or bacterial endospore ingredients of MBCPs can be adequately characterized, assessed, and managed as part of both product development and ongoing product stewardship. Accordingly, this document summarizes potential approaches to support strain-level identification of microbial ingredient(s), evaluate their hazards and potential for human exposure, and assess their potential effects following such exposures to different human populations. Recommendations for both hazard and risk characterization are discussed. Additionally, guidance is provided to support decision-making by risk managers, including guidance for the development of risk communication strategies, where appropriate, to mitigate the identified risks. Properly applied, the conceptual approaches described herein may facilitate the standardization and more consistent application of appropriate risk analysis procedures tailored to suit microbial ingredients present in MBCPs. Beyond their utility in assessing microbial ingredients commonly used in MBCPs today, these same approaches may help companies and regulators consider and manage risks for new microbial ingredients that may be utilized in future MBCP formulations.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Media amplification under the floodlight: Contextualizing 20 years of US risk news.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17701

Cormac Bryce, Michael Dowling, Suwan Cheng Long, Jamie K Wardman

引用次数: 0

Modeling renewable energy market performance under climate policy uncertainty: A novel multivariate quantile causality analysis.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17714

Avik Sinha, Muntasir Murshed, Narasingha Das, Tanaya Saha

{"title":"Modeling renewable energy market performance under climate policy uncertainty: A novel multivariate quantile causality analysis.","authors":"Avik Sinha, Muntasir Murshed, Narasingha Das, Tanaya Saha","doi":"10.1111/risa.17714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17714","url":null,"abstract":"The renewable energy market in the United States of America (USA) has experienced several crests and troughs owing to the changes in the climate policies. These changes in the climate policies have impacted the climate risk management scenario in the USA. This impact has changed the behavioral pattern of the renewable energy drivers, and a supply-side analysis of this aspect is largely ignored in the literature. In this pursuit, the present study aims at analyzing the moderating role of climate policy uncertainty in shaping the behavior of renewable energy drivers in the USA. Given the risk analysis perspective, a novel multivariate quantile-on-quantile causality test is introduced in the present study to address five aspects of risk analysis, i.e., tail dependence, co-movement, predictability, multivariate, and asymmetric impact. Moreover, this test also addresses the omitted variable bias and absence of ortho-partiality distribution, which were inherent to Granger causality test. Along with the analysis at the national level, a firm-level analysis is also done by taking the top-5 renewable energy generation firms of the USA. The results show that the climate policy uncertainty has a dampening effect on the renewable energy drivers, and this effect differs at the firm level. These impacts show a significant policy dimension for addressing the climatic risk management concerns in the USA, while achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7 objectives.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143256563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review.

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17715

Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski

{"title":"Key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making: A scoping review.","authors":"Yadvinder Bhuller, Xaand Bancroft, Raywat Deonandan, Agnes Grudniewicz, Anne Wiles, Daniel Krewski","doi":"10.1111/risa.17715","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17715","url":null,"abstract":"Government agencies, international institutions, and independent experts have published approaches for the assessment and management of health and environmental risks. This includes evidence-based strategies and publications supporting risk decision-making frameworks reflecting contemporary practices, the overarching context, and governance structures for addressing known and emerging risk issues. This scoping review surveys the literature, over the last five decades, to identify key attributes of health and environmental risk decision-making and how these inherent characteristics are related to the overarching regulatory decision-making context. The findings provide insights on how these publications accounted for the circumstances and triggers at that time. This includes incorporating factors reflecting advances in science and technology, a better understanding of underlying values (e.g., societal), and an expansion in the scope and complexity required for conducting different evaluations relevant to health and environmental risks. Consequently, the evolution from linear to more expanded and holistic decision-making frameworks incorporates foundational elements, such as the well-established steps for assessing risks, while adding aspects reflecting transformative changes and paradigm shifts (e.g., the use of non-animal testing strategies for evaluating human safety). Our analysis also resulted in the generation of a consolidated listing of ten attributes: trigger/issue, regulatory context, regulatory factors, core values, risk decision-making principles, cross-cutting attributes, design (scope and steps), structure, decision-making pathway, and evidence-knowledge requirements for risk decision-making. A better understanding of this evolution in risk decision-making and the listing of key attributes will be used in future work aimed at developing considerations for next generation decision-making approaches for health and environmental risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143080968","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey. 利用心理图像测量中国的气候变化认知：全国范围内的开放式调查。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17631

Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi

{"title":"Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey.","authors":"Jianxun Yang, Wei He, Ziqian Xia, Kehan Wu, Wen Fang, Zongwei Ma, Miaomiao Liu, Jun Bi","doi":"10.1111/risa.17631","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17631","url":null,"abstract":"Current knowledge about public climate change perception mainly covers belief, concern, and attitudes. However, how this discourse is interpreted using individuals' own frame of reference remains largely unknown, particularly in many large emitters from non-Annex I countries such as China. This study, for the first time, performs a nationwide open-ended survey covering 4,037 respondents and collected 12,100 textual answers. Using a semiautomated coding method, we find seven mental images that exclusively represent the Chinese interpretation of the climate change issue, including global warming, distant icons, natural disasters, environmental degradation, cause, solution, and weather. Analysis of influencing factors shows that females, those with lower education levels, lower income, and older individuals tend to connect climate change with natural weather phenomena. Younger and well-educated residents in developed cities are more aware of various consequences and anthropogenic causes of climate change. People with stronger climate change beliefs, policy support, and personal experience of extreme weather are more likely to mention disastrous impacts, carbon emission as causes, and potential solutions. Employing the multilevel regression and post-stratification technique, we map the prevalence of mental images in China at the prefecture-city level. The results reveal significant geographical heterogeneity, with estimated national means ranging from a high of 55% (weather) to a low of 11% (solution). Our findings reveal diverse perspectives and a widespread misconception of climate change in China, suggesting the need for tailored clarification strategies to gain public consent.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"441-456"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141917416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis? 基础设施中的逻辑相互依存关系：它们是什么，如何识别它们，它们对基础设施风险分析意味着什么？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16555

David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park

{"title":"Logical interdependencies in infrastructure: What are they, how to identify them, and what do they mean for infrastructure risk analysis?","authors":"David J Yu, Hoon C Shin, Tomás Olivier, Margaret Garcia, Sara Meerow, Jeryang Park","doi":"10.1111/risa.16555","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16555","url":null,"abstract":"A useful theoretical lens that has emerged for understanding urban resilience is the four basic types of interdependencies in critical infrastructures: the physical, geographic, cyber, and logical types. This paper is motivated by a conceptual and methodological limitation-although logical interdependencies (where two infrastructures affect the state of each other via human decisions) are regarded as one of the basic types of interdependencies, the question of how to apply the notion and how to quantify logical relations remains under-explored. To overcome this limitation, this study focuses on institutions (rules), for example, rules and planned tasks guiding human interactions with one another and infrastructure. Such rule-mediated interactions, when linguistically expressed, have a syntactic form that can be translated into a network form. We provide a foundation to delineate these two forms to detect logical interdependence. Specifically, we propose an approach to quantify logical interdependence based on the idea that (1) there are certain network motifs indicating logical relations, (2) such network motifs can be discerned from the network form of rules, and that (3) the higher the frequency of these motifs between two infrastructures, the greater the extent of logical interdependency. We develop a set of such motifs and illustrate their usage using an example. We conclude by suggesting a revision to the original definition of logical interdependence. This rule-focused approach is relevant to understanding human error in risk analysis of socio-technical systems, as human error can be seen as deviations from constraints that lead to accidents.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"356-375"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787953/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141875796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability. 通过纳入贝叶斯基准剂量模型和关于人群变异性的体外数据，减少剂量反应评估中的不确定性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17451

En-Hsuan Lu, Lucie C Ford, Ivan Rusyn, Weihsueh A Chiu

{"title":"Reducing uncertainty in dose-response assessments by incorporating Bayesian benchmark dose modeling and in vitro data on population variability.","authors":"En-Hsuan Lu, Lucie C Ford, Ivan Rusyn, Weihsueh A Chiu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17451","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17451","url":null,"abstract":"There are two primary sources of uncertainty in the interpretability of toxicity values, like the reference dose (RfD): estimates of the point of departure (POD) and the absence of chemical-specific human variability data. We hypothesize two solutions-employing Bayesian benchmark dose (BBMD) modeling to refine POD determination and combining high-throughput toxicokinetic modeling with population-based toxicodynamic in vitro data to characterize chemical-specific variability. These hypotheses were tested by deriving refined probabilistic estimates for human doses corresponding to a specific effect size (M) in the Ith population percentile (HDM I) across 19 Superfund priority chemicals. HDM I values were further converted to biomonitoring equivalents in blood and urine for benchmarking against human data. Compared to deterministic default-based RfDs, HDM I values were generally more protective, particularly influenced by chemical-specific data on interindividual variability. Incorporating chemical-specific in vitro data improved precision in probabilistic RfDs, with a median 1.4-fold reduction in uncertainty variance. Comparison with US Environmental Protection Agency's Exposure Forecasting exposure predictions and biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey identified chemicals with margins of exposure nearing or below one. Overall, to mitigate uncertainty in regulatory toxicity values and guide chemical risk management, BBMD modeling and chemical-specific population-based human in vitro data are essential.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"457-472"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11787958/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141988760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resist and recover: Introducing a spring theory for modeling disaster resilience. 抵抗与恢复：为模拟抗灾能力引入弹簧理论。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17452

Robert Weiss, Christopher W Zobel

引用次数: 0

An integrated approach to analyze equitable access to food stores under disasters from human mobility patterns. 采用综合方法，从人类流动模式分析灾害情况下公平获取食品的途径。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-02-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16873

Zhiyuan Wei, Sayanti Mukherjee

{"title":"An integrated approach to analyze equitable access to food stores under disasters from human mobility patterns.","authors":"Zhiyuan Wei, Sayanti Mukherjee","doi":"10.1111/risa.16873","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16873","url":null,"abstract":"Limited access to food stores is often linked to higher health risks and lower community resilience. Socially vulnerable populations experience persistent disparities in equitable food store access. However, little research has been done to examine how people's access to food stores is affected by natural disasters. Previous studies mainly focus on examining potential access using the travel distance to the nearest food store, which often falls short of capturing the actual access of people. Therefore, to fill this gap, this paper incorporates human mobility patterns into the measure of actual access, leveraging large-scale mobile phone data. Specifically, we propose a novel enhanced two-step floating catchment area method with travel preferences (E2SFCA-TP) to measure accessibility, which extends the traditional E2SFCA model by integrating actual human mobility behaviors. We then analyze people's actual access to grocery and convenience stores across both space and time under the devastating winter storm Uri in Harris County, Texas. Our results highlight the value of using human mobility patterns to better reflect people's actual access behaviors. The proposed E2SFCA-TP measure is more capable of capturing mobility variations in people's access, compared with the traditional E2SFCA measure. This paper provides insights into food store access across space and time, which could aid decision making in resource allocation to enhance accessibility and mitigate the risk of food insecurity in underserved areas.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"342-355"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141793382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0