Risk Analysis最新文献_第5页

Pilot flying versus pilot monitoring: The effect of role assignment on pilots' perceived risk in flight simulation experiment. 飞行员飞行与飞行员监控：角色分配对飞行模拟实验中飞行员感知风险的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70048

Shan Gao, Lei Wang, Nan Zhang, Yu Bai, Yu Tian, Shanguang Chen, Yijing Zhang, Hang Zhou

{"title":"Pilot flying versus pilot monitoring: The effect of role assignment on pilots' perceived risk in flight simulation experiment.","authors":"Shan Gao, Lei Wang, Nan Zhang, Yu Bai, Yu Tian, Shanguang Chen, Yijing Zhang, Hang Zhou","doi":"10.1111/risa.70048","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70048","url":null,"abstract":"Humans' risk perception has been recognized as a significant factor affecting behavior safety. In the aviation domain, the two different roles of crews in the cockpit-pilot flying (PF) versus pilot monitoring (PM)-are responsible for different tasks. However, little is known about how role assignment shapes pilots' perceived risk. We designed a flight-simulation experiment where 57 professional pilots completed two counterbalanced approaches under different role assignments with the assistance of a flight instructor in a full flight simulator. Their perceived risks were measured by psychophysiological responses and compared between the two different cockpit roles. Results indicate that participants exhibited stronger psychophysiological responses (e.g., higher subjective ratings, skin conductance responses, heart rates, and inter-beat intervals) when they served as PF than PM. Particularly, they reported higher scores in affect, susceptibility, and severity dimensions as PF than PM. The asymmetrically psychophysiological responses between the two varying roles in the cockpit emphasize the importance of controllability in shaping the pilot's perceived risk. Theoretically, our findings contribute to the existing literature on pilots' perceived risk. Practically, we pave the way for engaging specific interventions and training for improving crew performance and flight safety.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2759-2770"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144080070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method. 评估极端降雨和极端保险索赔之间的相关性：一种双变量峰值超过阈值方法。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70033

Yue Shi

{"title":"Assessing the dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme insurance claims: A bivariate peak over threshold method.","authors":"Yue Shi","doi":"10.1111/risa.70033","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70033","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. For insurance companies, it is essential to identify and quantify extreme climate risk. They must set aside enough capital reserve to bear the costs of extreme events, otherwise, they can be put in a danger of facing bankruptcy. In this article, I employ the state-of-the-art bivariate peak over threshold method to study the dependence between extreme rain events and extreme insurance claims. I utilize a novel insurance data set on home insurance claims related to rainfall-induced damage in Norway and select two large Norwegian municipalities to investigate the impact of heavy rain on large claim numbers. Based on the model estimates and tail dependence measures, I find evidence that extremely high numbers of insurance claims have the strongest dependence with rainfall intensity and daily rain amounts. I also identify the region-specific difference in rainfall variables as a key indicator of home insurance risk. The findings offer insights into the complex dynamics between extreme rainfall and extreme claim numbers in home insurance. Contributing to the long-term sustainability of the insurance industry, the proposed method facilitates the development of tailor-made pricing models and robust capital reserve management in the face of changing climate.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2504-2520"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143996230","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance. 通过整合库存、供应合同和保险，最大限度地提高救灾预置库存和资金保证策略的成本效益。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-06-05 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70056

Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao

{"title":"Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of relief prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy by integrating stockpiles, supply contract, and insurance.","authors":"Mengzhe Zhou, Tongxin Liu, Xihui Wang, Jianfang Shao","doi":"10.1111/risa.70056","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70056","url":null,"abstract":"Relief organizations face numerous challenges, such as funding shortfalls, delays in relief operations, and uncertain demand. A single prepositioning inventory strategy (e.g., stockpiles or supply contract) does not provide an effective solution to these challenges. Therefore, we propose a prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategy that combines stockpiles, supply contracts with suppliers, and insurance agreements for relief organizations. A deterministic model for the proposed strategy is established along with the objective of maximizing cost-effectiveness. We establish two benchmark models: one combining stockpiles with supply contract and the other combining stockpiles with catastrophe insurance. Then, we compare the relief performance of maximizing cost-effectiveness with minimizing economic costs and minimizing social costs in the proposed strategy. Two-stage robust optimization models are established to address disaster uncertainties. The column-and-constraint generation algorithm is designed to solve robust models, and the Charnes-Cooper transform method is used to transform the fractional objective to an integrated objective. The results of two case studies in Dali and Zhaotong, China, show that the proposed strategy with maximizing cost-effectiveness leads to the acquisition of a moderate amount of insurance with options purchased in quantities that are larger than the stockpiles. Compared with the two benchmark strategies, the proposed strategy can improve cost-effectiveness and achieve cost reduction, especially in years with large disasters. In addition, the objectives of minimizing economic costs and social costs emphasize overly conservative prepositioning inventory and funding assurance strategies, while the optimization results of maximizing cost-effectiveness show robustness when facing disasters with various severities.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2838-2864"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144235040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Is a good reputation a dangerous thing? A multimethod assessment of regulator culture and the implications for risk regulation. 好名声是件危险的事吗？监管机构文化的多方法评估及其对风险监管的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70043

Sharon Clarke, Lina Siegl, David Holman

{"title":"Is a good reputation a dangerous thing? A multimethod assessment of regulator culture and the implications for risk regulation.","authors":"Sharon Clarke, Lina Siegl, David Holman","doi":"10.1111/risa.70043","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70043","url":null,"abstract":"Regulator culture has a significant influence on dutyholder safety in high-risk industries, but there is currently limited research that has explored its nature and implications for effective risk regulation. Building on existing cultural theory and literature on reputational risk, we aim to address this hiatus by exploring regulator culture through an assessment of attitudes, beliefs, and norms that are shared within a UK risk regulator, and represent its underlying cultural values. We utilized an abductive case study approach, which involved multiple qualitative methodologies (comprising analysis of 68 documents, 19 interviews, nine focus groups, and seven observations), engaging both internal and external stakeholders. Based on triangulation, we developed a model and rich description of regulator culture, and addressed the following questions: What is a regulator culture for safety? What cultural values do risk regulators need for effective oversight of a high-risk industry? Our model encapsulates the core values of regulator culture (process orientation, professionalism, and independence) that together support the regulator's reputation, which is central to its cultural identity. Our findings extend risk theory and research by advancing knowledge of the mechanisms through which culture impacts regulatory practice. We highlight how the drive to protect reputation has benefits, but also a potential \"dark side.\" Latterly, we emphasize the dynamic and paradoxical nature of cultural values, and how this affects the regulator's ability to continually improve and strengthen its culture over time, as well as the implications for effective regulatory oversight.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2650-2666"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12474531/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144009407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study. 公众对应对全球灾难性风险的态度：新西兰案例研究。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70096

John Kerr, Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson

引用次数: 0

Reflections on Research in Risk Science and on Risk Science. 对风险科学和风险科学研究的思考。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70099

Stian Antonsen, Terje Aven, Torgeir Kolstø Haavik

{"title":"Reflections on Research in Risk Science and on Risk Science.","authors":"Stian Antonsen, Terje Aven, Torgeir Kolstø Haavik","doi":"10.1111/risa.70099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70099","url":null,"abstract":"Explicit references to a distinct field or discipline of risk appeared about 40-50 years ago, but it is only recently that the term \"risk science\" has been commonly used. To many scholars working with practical risk and safety issues, the risk field has been considered a rather narrow field and school of thought, mainly focusing on risk assessments and numbers. The scope of contemporary risk science is, however, wide, covering knowledge on all aspects of risk, including assessment, perception, communication, and management of risk. Work has been conducted to clarify and delineate the scope, distinguishing between generic (fundamental) and applied risk science, yet many questions remain to be discussed, particularly on the types of perspectives and methodologies that are covered and on issues related to the interrelationships with other fields and sciences. The present article aims at providing new insights on such questions by highlighting the difference between research in risk science and research on risk science. The former type refers to research activities that are explicitly conducted within the field of risk science by people who are considered risk researchers. The latter type of research concerns the development of knowledge on the intersection between risk science and other sciences, including reflexive research that enables translation and circulation of knowledge between the inside and the outside of risk science. The article can be read as a journey through viewpoints and arguments-an explorative rather than a concluding one-the journey in itself being just as important as its final destination.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144967113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Leveraging the American Housing Survey to Quantify Risk and Resilience. 利用美国住房调查量化风险和弹性。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70100

Kendrick Hardaway, Kelsea Best, Benjamin Rachunok

{"title":"Leveraging the American Housing Survey to Quantify Risk and Resilience.","authors":"Kendrick Hardaway, Kelsea Best, Benjamin Rachunok","doi":"10.1111/risa.70100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70100","url":null,"abstract":"The combined trends of urbanization and climate change elevate the criticality of planning resilience against natural hazards in urban areas, but quantifying key metrics and responses for planning purposes has proven elusive. A key need for cutting-edge quantitative research in urban resilience is datasets that are large and detailed but also broadly applicable to different settings and questions. The goal of this paper is to introduce an infrequently used dataset in the risk science field-the U.S. Census Bureau's American Housing Survey (AHS). We evaluate the pros and cons of the AHS and highlight specific examples of how researchers can use the dataset to advance goals toward more resilient urban futures. Using predictive models and multiple dimension reduction, we evaluate spatial and temporal trends within and between cities, and we investigate relationships between often disparate variables (e.g., socio-demographic and built environment) for anticipating negative consequences of hazards and perceived risk. In so doing, we demonstrate the usefulness of AHS's longitudinal nature, cross-city data, varying climatic regions, and broad range of variables for risk scientists.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144966961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Unpacking the Risk of Misinformation: A Communication-Based Critique. 揭露错误信息的风险：基于交流的批评。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70093

Dominic Balog-Way, Katherine McComas

{"title":"Unpacking the Risk of Misinformation: A Communication-Based Critique.","authors":"Dominic Balog-Way, Katherine McComas","doi":"10.1111/risa.70093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70093","url":null,"abstract":"A raft of authors argue that society is drowning in a sea of misinformation, disinformation, and fake news. Some claim we are living in a new world disorder, misinformation age, or post-truth era, fueled in part by social media, influential podcasters, and emerging AI systems. We argue that the now dominant interpretation of the risk of misinformation has been undergirded by an oversimplified understanding of broader communication processes. Thinking of misinformation as a standalone risk object has distorted conceptions of messages, messengers, and audiences, as well as how the underlying problems associated with false and misleading information could and should be addressed. Our article unpacks and then constructively critiques the dominant interpretation of misinformation by examining the tendency to (i) define misinformation in isolation from communication, (ii) neglect messengers' intentions, (iii) perceive audiences as susceptible misinformation recipients, and (iv) reduce communication to a one-way process of misinforming. We conclude by arguing that a communication-based approach, grounded in the agency of messengers and audiences, offers a more nuanced and holistic foundation for interpreting and addressing the complex challenges associated with false and misleading messages. This perspective encourages policymakers and researchers to approach communication in its full complexity, engage in multiway processes, draw on the existing interdisciplinary communication literature, and remain attentive to both the challenges and opportunities of today's evolving communication ecosystem.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144875033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural and Institutional Factors Driving Severe Repetitive Flood Losses: Insights From the Jersey Shore. 文化和制度因素导致严重的重复洪水损失：来自泽西海岸的见解。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70091

Laura Geronimo, Will B Payne, Clinton J Andrews, Elisabeth A Gilmore, Robert E Kopp

{"title":"Cultural and Institutional Factors Driving Severe Repetitive Flood Losses: Insights From the Jersey Shore.","authors":"Laura Geronimo, Will B Payne, Clinton J Andrews, Elisabeth A Gilmore, Robert E Kopp","doi":"10.1111/risa.70091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70091","url":null,"abstract":"Decisions about how to respond to coastal flood hazards often involve disagreements over resource allocations. In the United States, large intergovernmental fiscal transfers have enabled rebuilding in areas that experience severe repetitive losses. This case study focuses on Ortley Beach, a barrier island neighborhood in Toms River, New Jersey, to examine the process of rebuilding after Superstorm Sandy in 2012 and competing visions for the future. A decade later, we conducted 32 key-informant interviews-including residents and local, state, and federal officials-to examine how values, worldviews, and beliefs shape preferences for coastal risk reduction strategies. A central debate was whether public resources should support staying or leaving the island. Key concerns included the economic impacts of strategies on household and public finances, the effectiveness of strategies to mitigate future flood damages, and fairness in the distribution of costs and responsibilities. Conflicts emerged in how stakeholders framed their preferences. Local officials tended to hold more individualistic-hierarchical worldviews, weaker beliefs in climate science, and favored actions to protect high-value properties to preserve the tax base while externalizing costs. In contrast, some residents and most state and federal officials held more community-egalitarian worldviews, stronger beliefs in climate science, and preferences for long-term adaptation strategies to reduce risk, including property buyouts. Responding to the primary concern about economic impacts, we recommend enhancing individual and local financial resilience to climate and political shocks by diversifying municipal revenue streams, encouraging proactive risk-based planning, exploring innovative insurance models, and better accounting for the long-term costs of rebuilding.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144817395","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Generating targeted and tailored health communication narratives with AI. 利用人工智能生成有针对性和量身定制的健康传播叙述。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-04 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70076

Haoran Chu, Sixiao Liu

{"title":"Generating targeted and tailored health communication narratives with AI.","authors":"Haoran Chu, Sixiao Liu","doi":"10.1111/risa.70076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70076","url":null,"abstract":"Customized narratives are effective tools to promote risk prevention behaviors in populations. However, the development of such narratives is resource-intensive. Advances in generative artificial intelligence (AI) offer promising solutions to these constraints. This study explored the potential of generative AI, such as ChatGPT, to create health communication narratives (HCN) tailored to specific demographics and theoretical constructs to convey critical health risk information. We conducted a two-phased, preregistered experiment involving cervical cancer screening messaging (N = 272) to examine the effectiveness of AI-tailored health communication narratives. After prescreening, participants were randomly assigned to read a nonnarrative, a generic narrative, or an AI-generated targeted or tailored narrative message. The targeted narratives were customized by AI according to participants' preassessed demographics, such as age, race, and ethnicity, and the tailored narratives further incorporated preassessed cues, such as fear of the screening procedure, cancer worry, and perceived benefit of cancer screening. A qualitative review of the AI-generated messages attests to ChatGPT's ability to craft personalized health narratives. However, respondents perceived AI-tailored narratives as lower in quality and believability and were not more motivated for cervical cancer screening uptake than those exposed to the nonnarrative and generic narrative messages. Older participants and those who had higher cancer worry or believed that cervical cancer screening is beneficial were more persuaded by the AI-tailored messages. AI models, such as ChatGPT, can create targeted and tailored risk messages with high efficiency, but additional fine-tuning is needed to improve their applicability in motivating health behavioral change.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144776086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0