Risk Analysis最新文献_第5页

Susan Cutter: Social vulnerability, resilience, and risk. 苏珊·卡特：社会脆弱性、韧性和风险。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70037

Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie

引用次数: 0

Exposure to BTEX concentrations in different indoor microenvironments: Emphasis on different times of the year. 不同室内微环境中BTEX浓度的暴露：强调一年中的不同时间。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70032

Amir Hossein Khoshakhlagh, Saeid Yazdanirad, Pierre Sicard

{"title":"Exposure to BTEX concentrations in different indoor microenvironments: Emphasis on different times of the year.","authors":"Amir Hossein Khoshakhlagh, Saeid Yazdanirad, Pierre Sicard","doi":"10.1111/risa.70032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70032","url":null,"abstract":"Climatic variations in indoor environments may change concentration patterns. This systematic review and meta-analysis study aimed to investigate exposure to benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (s) (BTEX) concentrations in different indoor microenvironments with emphasis on different times of the year. A systematic review in five bibliographic databases (Scopus, PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, and Medline) was conducted. Adhering to PRISMA guidelines, the search utilized four groups of keywords. The pooled indoor exposure to BTEX under different climatic conditions were estimated using a random-effects model. Among 64 selected articles, the greatest percentage of studies with the highest indoor exposure for BTEX in vehicles and transportation areas was in summer. The highest percentage of these studies at home was in winter. The highest percentage of these studies in educational and sport centers was in winter and summer. In the vehicles and transportation areas, the pooled concentration (µg/m3) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were calculated as 29.12, 102.33, 19.24, and 22.73 in summer, respectively. In the homes and sites, the pooled concentration (µg/m3) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were measured as 6.39, 22.06, 6.21, and 11.33 in winter, respectively. In the educational and sport centers, the pooled concentration (µg/m3) of benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene(s) were calculated as 3.15, 11.09, 5.55, and 5.63 in summer and 2.97, 8.09, 4.16, and 5.49 in winter, respectively. The results of this study introduce the seasons with the greatest concentrations of BTEX in different indoor environments.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143803987","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Critical monitoring and control factors for achieving food defense criteria. 达到食品防御标准的关键监测和控制因素。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70025

Elaine Andrade, Flavio Andrade, Gilberto Oliveira, Otniel Freitas-Silva

{"title":"Critical monitoring and control factors for achieving food defense criteria.","authors":"Elaine Andrade, Flavio Andrade, Gilberto Oliveira, Otniel Freitas-Silva","doi":"10.1111/risa.70025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70025","url":null,"abstract":"Food can be contaminated by physical, chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. Industry and regulatory agencies have developed the Food Safety Management System, based on the principles of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points, to be effective against unintentional food safety risks. However, there is the intentional contamination of food to cause harm to consumers, customers, or companies, and prevention requires a different approach to controlling unintentional food safety risks; this concept is known as food defense. There are certification standards that include food defense requirements referenced to the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI), such as the British Retail Consortium, International Featured Standards, Food Safety System Certification 22000, and Safe Quality Food Institute. In the context of food producers, it is crucial to understand the critical success factors for implementing standards involved in food defense and increasing the effectiveness and sustainability of exporting agroindustries. The present study aimed to map the essential success factors for implementing food defense in Brazilian companies already certified by the standards recognized by the GFSI, to take advantage of this expertise for companies seeking to implement food defense. Quantitative and qualitative research was conducted by a survey of the perception of those responsible for implementing food safety standards regarding the relevance of food defense requirements to guarantee food protection. Data analysis was performed through correspondence analysis. It was possible to identify groups and formulate a reduced list of priority criteria for the implementation of food defense, to facilitate and accelerate the adaptation process of companies not yet certified, helping to raise the level of food safety for consumers, in addition to contributing to economic growth through new entrants in the export and import chain.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143781018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Belief updating in AI-risk debates: Exploring the limits of adversarial collaboration. 人工智能风险辩论中的信念更新：探索对抗性合作的极限。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70023

Josh Rosenberg, Ezra Karger, Zach Jacobs, Molly Hickman, Avital Morris, Harrison Durland, Otto Kuusela, Philip E Tetlock

引用次数: 0

Extracting information content on radiation risks from the receiver perspective: Examining Fukushima residents 10 years after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. 从受者视角提取辐射风险信息内容：福岛核反应堆事故10年后福岛居民调查。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70029

Motoko Kosugi, Reiko Kuwagaki, Tomoko Tsuchiya

{"title":"Extracting information content on radiation risks from the receiver perspective: Examining Fukushima residents 10 years after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.","authors":"Motoko Kosugi, Reiko Kuwagaki, Tomoko Tsuchiya","doi":"10.1111/risa.70029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70029","url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study was to clarify how more useful information could be provided to Fukushima Prefecture residents (below, information \"receivers\"), who are still anxious about radiation risks 10 years after the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor accident. Using the mental model approach, mental models on radiation risks were developed for experts and receivers, with Fukushima residents being the expected readers. The degree of anxiety among receivers about radiation immediately after the accident was compared with their current degree of anxiety, and they were divided into two groups (those with reduced anxiety and those with unchanged anxiety) to create mental models. By comparing the three models, it was found that the receivers generally understand the effects of radiation on health, the environmental dosages, their relationship with the human body, and decontamination methods and effectiveness. It was also observed that they are uninformed about the properties of radioactive substances, effective doses, and expulsion of ingested radioactive substances. There were no major differences between the two receiver models, suggesting that the content and extent of knowledge regarding radiation risks are not directly linked to current anxiety. However, the group with reduced anxiety had a greater level of basic radiation knowledge, suggesting that after the accident, they sought out or recalled more of the knowledge provided.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143773147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Applying the "SOTEC" framework of sociotechnical risk analysis to the development of an autonomous robot swarm for a public cloakroom. 将社会技术风险分析的 "SOTEC "框架应用于公共衣帽间自主机器人群的开发。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17632

Peter Winter, John Downer, James Wilson, Dhaminda B Abeywickrama, Suet Lee, Sabine Hauert, Shane Windsor

{"title":"Applying the \"SOTEC\" framework of sociotechnical risk analysis to the development of an autonomous robot swarm for a public cloakroom.","authors":"Peter Winter, John Downer, James Wilson, Dhaminda B Abeywickrama, Suet Lee, Sabine Hauert, Shane Windsor","doi":"10.1111/risa.17632","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17632","url":null,"abstract":"The past decade has seen efforts to develop new forms of autonomous systems with varying applications in different domains, from underwater search and rescue to clinical diagnosis. All of these applications require risk analyses, but such analyses often focus on technical sources of risk without acknowledging its wider systemic and organizational dimensions. In this article, we illustrate this deficit and a way of redressing it by offering a more systematic analysis of the sociotechnical sources of risk in an autonomous system. To this end, the article explores the development, deployment, and operation of an autonomous robot swarm for use in a public cloakroom in light of Macrae's structural, organizational, technological, epistemic, and cultural framework of sociotechnical risk. We argue that this framework provides a useful tool for capturing the complex \"nontechnical\" dimensions of risk in this domain that might otherwise be overlooked in the more conventional risk analyses that inform regulation and policymaking.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"878-895"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12032379/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142036805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Using near misses, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to predict maritime incidents: A U.S. Coast Guard case study. 利用险情、人工智能和机器学习预测海上事故：美国海岸警卫队案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15075

Peter M Madsen, Robin L Dillon, Evan T Morris

{"title":"Using near misses, artificial intelligence, and machine learning to predict maritime incidents: A U.S. Coast Guard case study.","authors":"Peter M Madsen, Robin L Dillon, Evan T Morris","doi":"10.1111/risa.15075","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15075","url":null,"abstract":"Two recent trends made this project possible: (1) The recognition that near misses can be predictors of future negative events and (2) enhanced artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) tools that make data analytics accessible for many organizations. Increasingly, organizations are learning from prior incidents to improve safety and reduce accidents. The U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) uses a reporting system called the Marine Information for Safety and Law Enforcement (MISLE) database. Because many of the incidents that appear in this database are minor ones, this project initially focused on determining if near misses in MISLE could be predictors of future accidents. The analysis showed that recent near-miss counts are useful for predicting future serious casualties at the waterway level. Using this finding, a predictive AI/ML model was built for each waterway type by vessel combination. Random forest decision tree AI/ML models were used to identify waterways at significant accident risk. An R-based predictive model was designed to be run monthly, using data from prior months to make future predictions. The prediction models were trained on data from 2007 to 2022 and tested on 10 months of data from 2022, where prior months were added to test the next month. The overall accuracy of the predictions was 92%-99.9%, depending on model characteristics. The predictions of the models were considered accurate enough to be potentially useful in future prevention efforts for the USCG and may be generalizable to other industries that have near-miss data and a desire to identify and manage risks.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"830-845"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141620827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty. 考虑到依赖性和不确定性，多源信息融合用于复杂项目的安全风险评估。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17651

Kai Guo, Limao Zhang

{"title":"Multisource information fusion for safety risk assessment in complex projects considering dependence and uncertainty.","authors":"Kai Guo, Limao Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17651","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17651","url":null,"abstract":"The success of tunneling projects is crucial for infrastructure development. However, the potential leakage risk is particularly challenging due to the inherent uncertainties and fuzziness involved. To address this demanding challenge, a hybrid approach integrating the copula theory, cloud model, and risk matrix, is proposed. The dependence of multiple risk-related influential factors is explored by the construct of the copula-cloud model, and the diverse information is fused by applying the risk matrix to gain a crisp risk result. A case study is performed to test the applicability of the proposed approach, in which a risk index system consisting of nine critical factors is developed and Sobol-enabled global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is incorporated to investigate the contributions of different factors to the risk magnitude. Key findings are as follows: (1) Risk statuses of the studied three tunnel sections are perceived as under grade I (safe), II (low-risk), and III (medium-risk), respectively, and the waterproof material aspect is found prone to deteriorating the tunnel sections. Furthermore, the proposed approach allows for a better understanding of the trends in the risk statuses of the tunnel sections. (2) Strong interactions between influential factors exist and exert impacts on the final risk results, proving the necessity of studying the factor dependence. (3) The developed neutral risk matrix presents a strong robustness and displays a higher recognition capacity in risk assessment. The novelty of this research lies in the consideration of the dependence and uncertainty in multisource information fusion with a hybrid copula-cloud model, enabling to perform a robust risk assessment under different risk matrices with varying degrees of risk tolerance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"944-967"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142401145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the risk of takeover catastrophe from large language models. 从大型语言模型评估收购灾难风险。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14353

Seth D Baum

{"title":"Assessing the risk of takeover catastrophe from large language models.","authors":"Seth D Baum","doi":"10.1111/risa.14353","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14353","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a risk analysis of large language models (LLMs), a type of \"generative\" artificial intelligence (AI) system that produces text, commonly in response to textual inputs from human users. The article is specifically focused on the risk of LLMs causing an extreme catastrophe in which they do something akin to taking over the world and killing everyone. The possibility of LLM takeover catastrophe has been a major point of public discussion since the recent release of remarkably capable LLMs such as ChatGPT and GPT-4. This arguably marks the first time when actual AI systems (and not hypothetical future systems) have sparked concern about takeover catastrophe. The article's analysis compares (A) characteristics of AI systems that may be needed for takeover, as identified in prior theoretical literature on AI takeover risk, with (B) characteristics observed in current LLMs. This comparison reveals that the capabilities of current LLMs appear to fall well short of what may be needed for takeover catastrophe. Future LLMs may be similarly incapable due to fundamental limitations of deep learning algorithms. However, divided expert opinion on deep learning and surprise capabilities found in current LLMs suggests some risk of takeover catastrophe from future LLMs. LLM governance should monitor for changes in takeover characteristics and be prepared to proceed more aggressively if warning signs emerge. Unless and until such signs emerge, more aggressive governance measures may be unwarranted.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"752-765"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141470533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Terje Aven: Building the foundation of risk analysis. Terje Aven：建立风险分析的基础。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70021

Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie

引用次数: 0