Risk Analysis最新文献

{"title":"Special issue: Risk science foundations in light of COVID-19.","authors":"Terje Aven, Louis Anthony Cox, Roger Flage, Seth D Guikema, Charles N Haas","doi":"10.1111/risa.17686","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17686","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2759-2761"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142814186","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Review of animal transmission experiments of respiratory viruses: Implications for transmission risk of SARS-COV-2 in humans via different routes.","authors":"Ying Li, Ning Mao, Lei Guo, Luyao Guo, Linlin Chen, Li Zhao, Qingqin Wang, Enshen Long","doi":"10.1111/risa.14129","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14129","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Exploring transmission risk of different routes has major implications for epidemic control. However, disciplinary boundaries have impeded the dissemination of epidemic information, have caused public panic about \"air transmission,\" \"air-conditioning transmission,\" and \"environment-to-human transmission,\" and have triggered \"hygiene theater.\" Animal experiments provide experimental evidence for virus transmission, but more attention is paid to whether transmission is driven by droplets or aerosols and using the dichotomy to describe most transmission events. Here, according to characteristics of experiment setups, combined with patterns of human social interactions, we reviewed and grouped animal transmission experiments into four categories-close contact, short-range, fomite, and aerosol exposure experiments-and provided enlightenment, with experimental evidence, on the transmission risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) in humans via different routes. When referring to \"air transmission,\" context should be showed in elaboration results, rather than whether close contact, short or long range is uniformly described as \"air transmission.\" Close contact and short range are the major routes. When face-to-face, unprotected, horizontally directional airflow does promote transmission, due to virus decay and dilution in air, the probability of \"air conditioning transmission\" is low; the risk of \"environment-to-human transmission\" highly relies on surface contamination and human behavior based on indirect path of \"fomite-hand-mucosa or conjunctiva\" and virus decay on surfaces. Thus, when discussing the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2, we should comprehensively consider the biological basis of virus transmission, environmental conditions, and virus decay. Otherwise, risk of certain transmission routes, such as long-range and fomite transmission, will be overrated, causing public excessive panic, triggering ineffective actions, and wasting epidemic prevention resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2840-2857"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9562107","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A system dynamics model of the COVID-19 pandemic considering risk perception: A case study of Iran.","authors":"Mohammadreza Korzebor, Nasim Nahavandi","doi":"10.1111/risa.14115","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14115","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a complex issue around the world. As the disease advancing and death rates are continuously increasing, governments are trying to control the situation by implementing different response policies. In order to implement appropriate policies, we need to consider the behavior of the people. Risk perception (RP) is a critical component in many health behavior change theories studies. People's RP can shape their behavior. This research presents a system dynamics (SD) model of the COVID-19 outbreak considering RP. The proposed model considers effective factors on RP, including different media types, awareness, and public acceptable death rate. In addition, the simplifying assumption of permanent immunity due to infection has been eliminated, and reinfection is considered; thus, different waves of the pandemic have been simulated. Using the presented model, the trend of advancing and death rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran can be predicted. Some policies are proposed for pandemic management. Policies are categorized as the capacity of hospitals, preventive behaviors, and accepted death rate. The results show that the proposed policies are effective. In this case, reducing the accepted death rate was the most effective policy to manage the pandemics. About 20% reduction in the accepted death rate causes about 23% reduction in cumulative death and delays at epidemic peak. The mean daily error in predicting the death rate is less than 10%.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2812-2827"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10803030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Enabling emergency production shifting: The value of blockchain in supply chain resilience confronting COVID-19.","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Lingfeng Wang, Jian Dong","doi":"10.1111/risa.14199","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14199","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Nowadays, factories located in COVID-19 infected countries/regions are facing random outbreaks. If blockchain is adopted, then the outbreaks can be known immediately and emergency production shifting can be enabled, although high crash cost will be incurred. Otherwise, production delay will become inevitable. We therefore formulate the tradeoffs among the high crash cost, the benefit from quick production, and the efficiency loss because of supply chain decentralization in a global brand's blockchain adoption decisions. We show that, in the presence of supply chain competition, the global brand will be benefited from blockchain adoption when the competition intensity degree is high, the crash cost is low, and the probability of COVID-19 outbreak is high. We then verify the robustness of the main findings by studying the impact of the global brand's risk attitude, its overestimation of production delay, and the unexpected production delay in the low-risk areas. In addition, we examine the social welfare and find it can also benefit from the global brand's blockchain adoption but the consumer surplus cannot.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2858-2888"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47052536","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A review of optimization and decision models of prescribed burning for wildfire management.","authors":"Jianzhou Qi, Jun Zhuang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17680","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17680","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Prescribed burning is an essential forest management tool that requires strategic planning to effectively address its multidimensional impacts, particularly given the influence of global climate change on fire behavior. Despite the inherent complexity in planning prescribed burns, limited efforts have been made to comprehensively identify the critical elements necessary for formulating effective models. In this work, we present a systematic review of the literature on optimization and decision models for prescribed burning, analyzing 471 academic papers published in the last 25 years. Our study identifies four main types of models: spatial-allocation, spatial-extent, temporal-only, and spatial-temporal. We observe a growing number of studies on modeling prescribed burning, primarily due to the expansion in spatial-allocation and spatial-temporal models. There is also an increase in complexity as the models consider more elements affecting prescribed burning effectiveness. We identify the essential components for optimization models, including stakeholders, decision variables, objectives, and influential factors, to enhance model practicality. The review also examines solution techniques, such as integer programming in spatial allocation, stochastic dynamic programming in probabilistic models, and multiobjective programming in balancing trade-offs. These techniques' strengths and limitations are discussed to help researchers adapt methods to specific challenges in prescribed burning optimization. In addition, we investigate general assumptions in the models and challenges in relaxation to enhance practicality. Lastly, we propose future research to develop more comprehensive models incorporating dynamic fire behaviors, stakeholder preferences, and long-term impacts. Enhancing these models' accuracy and applicability will enable decision-makers to better manage wildfire treatment outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142695889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"An information-theoretic analysis of security behavior intentions amongst United States poll workers.","authors":"Natalie M Scala, Jayant Rajgopal, Yeabsira Mezgebe, Josh Dehlinger","doi":"10.1111/risa.17682","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17682","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In light of recent events related to national elections in the United States, safeguarding the security and integrity of forthcoming elections stands as a critical national priority. Elections equipment in the United States constitutes critical national infrastructure, and its operation relies on poll workers, who are trusted insiders. However, those insiders may pose risks if they make mistakes with detrimental consequences or act with malice. This research analyzes a large dataset of 2213 responses obtained from a survey of poll workers and potential poll workers in 13 states. The survey includes the Security Behavior Intentions Scale, which has been previously established and validated in the security literature. We use the responses to assess poll workers' intentions of complying with established security-related practices. We develop a novel model using information theory to examine potential weaknesses in security behaviors and identify poll worker security practices to improve to ensure the integrity of our elections. We also recommend action items and countermeasures for states and localities based upon this empirical analysis.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142688683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Portrayal of risk information and its impact on audiences' risk perception during the Covid-19 pandemic: A multi-method approach.","authors":"Annemarie Wiedicke, Paula Stehr, Constanze Rossmann","doi":"10.1111/risa.17681","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17681","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Over the last years, infectious diseases have been traveling across international borders faster than ever before, resulting in major public health crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Given the rapid changes and unknown risks that mark such events, risk communication faces the challenge to raise awareness and concern among the public without creating panic. Drawing on the social amplification of risk framework-a concept that theorizes how and why risks are amplified or attenuated during the (1) transfer of risk information (by, for instance, news media) and (2) audiences' interpretation and perception of these information-we were interested in the portrayal of risk information and its impact on audiences' risk perception over the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Germany. We therefore conducted a quantitative content analysis of a major public and private television (TV) newscast (N = 321) and combined it with survey data (two-wave panel survey, t1: N = 1378 and t2: N = 1061). Our results indicate that TV news (as a major information source at that time) were characterized by both risk-attenuating and risk-amplifying characteristics, although risk-amplifying attributes were particularly pronounced by the private TV newscast. Notably, those who only used private TV news between both waves showed the highest perceived severity at time 2. However, the interaction effect of time and use of public and/or private TV news was only significant for perceived susceptibility. Overall, more research is needed to examine the effects of different types of media and changes in risk perceptions over time.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"JointLIME: An interpretation method for machine learning survival models with endogenous time-varying covariates in credit scoring.","authors":"Yujia Chen, Raffaella Calabrese, Belen Martin-Barragan","doi":"10.1111/risa.17679","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17679","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In this work, we introduce JointLIME, a novel interpretation method for explaining black-box survival (BBS) models with endogenous time-varying covariates (TVCs). Existing interpretation methods, like SurvLIME, are limited to BBS models only with time-invariant covariates. To fill this gap, JointLIME leverages the Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) framework to apply the joint model to approximate the survival functions predicted by the BBS model in a local area around a new individual. To achieve this, JointLIME minimizes the distances between survival functions predicted by the black-box survival model and those derived from the joint model. The outputs of this minimization problem are the coefficient values of each covariate in the joint model, serving as explanations to quantify their impact on survival predictions. JointLIME uniquely incorporates endogenous TVCs using a spline-based model coupled with the Monte Carlo method for precise estimations within any specified prediction period. These estimations are then integrated to formulate the joint model in the optimization problem. We illustrate the explanation results of JointLIME using a US mortgage data set and compare them with those of SurvLIME.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142682737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A quantitative analysis of biosafety and biosecurity using attack trees in low-to-moderate risk scenarios: Evidence from iGEM.","authors":"Xi Zhang, Zhanpeng Xiao, Te Zhang, Xin Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.17678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17678","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>As synthetic biology is extensively applied in numerous frontier disciplines, the biosafety and biosecurity concerns with designing and constructing novel biological parts, devices, and systems have inevitably come to the forefront due to potential misuse, abuse, and environmental risks from unintended exposure or potential ecological impacts. The International Genetically Engineered Machine (iGEM) competition often serves as the inception of many synthetic biologists' research careers and plays a pivotal role in the secure progression of the entire synthetic biology field. Even with iGEM's emphasis on biosafety and biosecurity, continuous risk assessment is crucial due to the potential for unforeseen consequences and the relative inexperience of many participants. In this study, possible risk points for the iGEM projects in 2022 were extracted. An attack tree that captures potential risks and threats from experimental procedures, ethical issues, and hardware safety for each iGEM-based attack scenario is constructed. It is found that most of the attack scenarios are related to experimental procedures. The relative likelihood of each scenario is then determined by using an established assessment framework. This research expands the traditionally qualitative analysis of risk society theory, reveals the risk formation in the synthetic biology team, and provides practical implications.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142648626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Two paths of news frames affecting support for particulate matter policies in South Korea: The moderating roles of media exposure and psychological distance.","authors":"In-Jae Lim, Yungwook Kim, Soyoung Kim","doi":"10.1111/risa.17675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17675","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This study examined the paths through which the news frames of particulate matter (PM) influence support for governmental policies aiming to address PM. It also explored the mediating effects of anxiety and risk perception in the relationship between news frames and policy support, as well as the moderating effects of media exposure and psychological distance on the PM news framing effect. Based on an experimental design (N = 676), two groups of news frames were prepared for comparison: a narrative frame group and a numerical frame group. The results showed no significant differences in anxiety or risk perception between the two groups. Further, no significant mediating effects of anxiety or risk perception were found in the process through which PM news frames influence support for governmental policies. However, media exposure significantly moderated the effect of the narrative frame: With high (low) media exposure, the narrative frame positively (negatively) influenced policy support through risk perception. Moreover, when the level of psychological distance was low, the narrative frame positively influenced policy support through risk perception. This study contributes to the literature on news framing of PM by integrating cognitive and emotional mechanisms in forming policy attitudes.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625886","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}