Risk Analysis最新文献_第6页

Resilience and loss mitigation: An empirical study from China. 弹性与损失缓解：来自中国的实证研究。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-02 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70082

Ling Tan, Xianhua Wu, Ji Guo

{"title":"Resilience and loss mitigation: An empirical study from China.","authors":"Ling Tan, Xianhua Wu, Ji Guo","doi":"10.1111/risa.70082","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70082","url":null,"abstract":"The importance of resilience in mitigating the impacts of disasters has gained increasing recognition, yet quantitative analyses assessing its effectiveness in reducing losses remain limited. This paper introduces a novel approach to integrate resilience into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to quantitatively assess its role in loss mitigation. First, a conventional CGE model is employed to evaluate economic losses caused by disasters without considering resilience, establishing a baseline analysis of disaster impacts. Next, the economic impacts of disasters are reassessed after incorporating resilience into the production module by adjusting elasticity parameters. By comparing the baseline scenario with the resilience-enhanced model, the extent and effectiveness of resilience in reducing disaster losses could be evaluated. To validate the approach, the extreme rainfall event in Beijing on July 21, 2012, is used as a case study. The results show that incorporating resilience leads to a significant reduction in economic losses. Specifically, the losses of total output are reduced from $29.10 billion to $20.98 billion, corresponding to a reduction in the loss rate from 3.88% to 2.80%. Furthermore, recovery rates vary across industrial sectors, with wholesale and retail trade, and services recovering most quickly, while sectors such as the production and supply of electricity, gas, water, and manufacturing exhibit slower recovery rates. This research provides valuable insights into disaster resilience assessment. The findings have practical implications for policymakers and agencies involved to carry out the development of resilience strategies and post-disaster management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144769004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Categorizing errors in high-reliability organizations: Adaptive range and adaptive capacity in incident response. 高可靠性组织中的错误分类：事件响应中的自适应范围和自适应能力。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70024

Elmar Kutsch, Haytham Siala, Chantal Cantarelli, Ibrat Djabbarov

引用次数: 0

Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling. 可解释风险评估模型的影响方向。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-25 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70003

Emanuele Borgonovo, Manel Baucells, Antonio De Rosa, Elmar Plischke, John Barr, Herschel Rabitz

{"title":"Direction of impact for explainable risk assessment modeling.","authors":"Emanuele Borgonovo, Manel Baucells, Antonio De Rosa, Elmar Plischke, John Barr, Herschel Rabitz","doi":"10.1111/risa.70003","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70003","url":null,"abstract":"Several graphical indicators have been recently introduced to help analysts visualize the marginal effects of inputs in complex models. The insights derived from such tools may help decision-makers and risk analysts in designing interventions. However, we know little about the adequacy and consistency of different indicators. This work investigates popular marginal effect indicators to understand whether they yield indications consistent with the properties of the quantitative model under inspection. Specifically, we examine the notions of monotonicity, Lipschitz, and concavity consistency. Surprisingly, only PD functions satisfy all these notions of consistency. However, when selecting the indicators, in addition to consistency, analysts need to consider the risk of model extrapolation. For situations where such risk is under control, we utilize individual conditional expectations together with PD plots. Two applications, on a NASA space risk assessment model and a susceptible exposed infected recovered (SEIR) model for the COVID-19 pandemic illustrate the insights obtained from these indicators.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2157-2182"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411132/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143503747","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An exploratory investigation on internal crisis communication across private and public sector employees in Indonesia. 对印尼私营和公共部门雇员内部危机沟通的探索性调查。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70006

Bahtiar Mohamad, Adamu Abbas Adamu, Sri Rahayu, Pijar Suciati, Nailul Mona, Syed Hassan Raza

{"title":"An exploratory investigation on internal crisis communication across private and public sector employees in Indonesia.","authors":"Bahtiar Mohamad, Adamu Abbas Adamu, Sri Rahayu, Pijar Suciati, Nailul Mona, Syed Hassan Raza","doi":"10.1111/risa.70006","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70006","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 5 years, Indonesia has faced numerous sudden crises due to its geographical location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, making it prone to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These events highlight the frequent occurrence of sudden crises in Indonesia and underscore the need for robust disaster preparedness and response systems. Effective crisis management requires a strategy that immediately informs organizations and the health sector of necessary actions. This study aims to investigate the effects of safety culture (SC), supportive environment (SE), management commitment (MC), and social media usage on internal crisis communication (ICC) during crises in Indonesia. It also compares the multiple regression models between employees in the private and public sectors. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with 567 full-time employees from various organizations who have been directly affected by crises. The findings reveal that, for public sector employees, all antecedents negatively impact ICC except for SC and MC. In contrast, for private sector employees, all antecedents positively impact ICC except for MC and the perceived usefulness of social media. This study highlights the importance of MC, an SE, SC, and the perceived usefulness of social media in determining employees' ICC during crises. The significance of an SE and SC on employees' perceptions of ICC is similarly emphasized.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2341-2355"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143664499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery. 洪水足迹评估：评估外部援助对灾后恢复的影响。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70013

Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du

{"title":"Flood footprint assessment: Assessing external assistance' impact on post-disaster recovery.","authors":"Zhao Zeng, Nan Wang, Zengkai Zhang, Huimin Wang, Huibin Du","doi":"10.1111/risa.70013","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70013","url":null,"abstract":"Mitigating the risks posed by natural disasters has become a pressing public concern due to their increasingly frequent and intense occurrences, which threaten human lives and socio-economic development. External assistance (EA), as a common form of support for post-disaster reconstruction, has been recognized as significant in several studies. However, the lack of an assessment method has made it unclear to what extent economic recovery can be affected by EA. To address this problem, we adopt the flood footprint as an indicator and improve the flood footprint model by combining it with the consideration of EA. The purpose is to quantify the economic impact of EA on post-disaster recovery. In a successful application case of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan disaster in Hainan province, China, we have validated the feasibility and flexibility of our approach. We found that EA, which accounted for 2.4% of direct economic losses, resulted in a 7.31% reduction of indirect economic losses in the Hainan case. These findings indicate that EA positively impacts short-term economic risk reduction, despite its complex influence on the overall economy. Furthermore, through scenario analysis on alternative EA schemes, we discuss that the ration scheme is a significant factor in determining EA's impact. Policymakers can minimize the indirect flood footprint and facilitate post-disaster economic recovery by implementing alternative EA schemes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2243-2254"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143586548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Navigating the precipice: Lessons on collapse from the Late Bronze Age. 在悬崖上航行：青铜时代晚期的崩溃教训。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70019

S E Galaitsi, Benjamin D Trump, Eric H Cline, Maksim Kitsak, Igor Linkov

引用次数: 0

End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: A study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland. 最终用户和预报员对欧洲雪崩危险等级的解释：苏格兰雪崩概率判断的研究。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70016

Philip A Ebert, David L Miller, David A Comerford, Mark Diggins

{"title":"End user and forecaster interpretations of the European Avalanche Danger Scale: A study of avalanche probability judgments in Scotland.","authors":"Philip A Ebert, David L Miller, David A Comerford, Mark Diggins","doi":"10.1111/risa.70016","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70016","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate Scottish end users' and professional forecasters' risk perception in relation to the 5-point European Avalanche Danger Scale by eliciting numerical estimates of the probability of triggering an avalanche. Our main findings are that neither end users nor professional forecasters interpret the avalanche danger scale as intended, that is, in an exponential fashion. Second, we find that numerical interpretations by end users and professional forecasters have high variance, but are similar, in that both groups tend to overestimate the probability of triggering an avalanche and underestimate the relative risk increase. Finally, we find significant differences in the perceived probability of triggering an avalanche relative to a low or moderate avalanche danger level, and in the numerical interpretation of verbal probability terms depending on whether respondents provide their estimates using a frequency or a percentage chance format. We summarize our findings by identifying important lessons to improve avalanche risk understanding and its communication.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2285-2299"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411127/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143606240","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of bioaerosol emissions from squat and bidet toilets during flushing. 蹲式和坐便器冲水过程中生物气溶胶排放的定量微生物风险评估。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-17 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70000

Wajid Ali, Zhen Hu, Zhe-Ren Tang, Si-Yi Liu, Zaheer Ahmad Nasir, Frederic Coulon, Peng Liu, Cheng Yan

{"title":"Quantitative microbial risk assessment of bioaerosol emissions from squat and bidet toilets during flushing.","authors":"Wajid Ali, Zhen Hu, Zhe-Ren Tang, Si-Yi Liu, Zaheer Ahmad Nasir, Frederic Coulon, Peng Liu, Cheng Yan","doi":"10.1111/risa.70000","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.70000","url":null,"abstract":"Bioaerosol emissions during toilet flushing are an often-overlooked source of potential health risks in shared public facilities. This study systematically investigated the emission characteristics of Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli bioaerosols in washrooms with squat and bidet toilets under varying flushing conditions and ventilation scenarios. Using Monte Carlo simulation-based quantitative microbial risk assessment and sensitivity analysis, the study estimated the disease burden and identified key factors influencing risk. The results showed that squat toilets generated 1.7-2.6 times higher concentrations of S. aureus bioaerosols and 1.2-1.4 times higher concentrations of E. coli bioaerosols compared to bidet toilets. After the first flush, bioaerosol concentrations were 1.3-1.8 times (S. aureus) and 1.2-1.4 times (E. coli) lower than those observed after the second flush. The second flush released a higher proportion of fine bioaerosol particles (<4.7 µm), increasing inhalation risks. The disease health risk burden was consistently one order of magnitude lower after the first flush than the second one. Ventilation with a turned-on exhaust fan further reduced the risk by one order of magnitude. Sensitivity analysis identified exposure concentration as the most influential parameter, contributing up to 50% of the overall risk. This study highlights the importance of optimizing toilet design and ventilation systems to mitigate bioaerosol emissions and associated health risks. It provides actionable insights for improving public washroom hygiene and minimizing bioaerosol exposure.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2083-2096"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143441745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A new hope or phantom menace? Exploring climate emotions and public support for climate interventions across 30 countries. 是新的希望还是幽灵般的威胁？探索30个国家的气候情绪和公众对气候干预的支持。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17713

Chad M Baum, Elina Brutschin, Livia Fritz, Benjamin K Sovacool

{"title":"A new hope or phantom menace? Exploring climate emotions and public support for climate interventions across 30 countries.","authors":"Chad M Baum, Elina Brutschin, Livia Fritz, Benjamin K Sovacool","doi":"10.1111/risa.17713","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17713","url":null,"abstract":"Emotions are central to human experiences of climate change. Empirical research demonstrates their importance for climate perceptions and climate-related behaviors. The intensifying severity of climate change prompts consideration of emerging, potentially controversial technologies. Alongside mitigation and adaptation, climate intervention proposes to remove carbon dioxide from ambient air (carbon dioxide removal, CDR) or reflect sunlight away from the Earth (solar radiation modification, SRM). Although such options arouse emotional reactions of diverse kinds, the intersection between climate emotions and climate intervention has received limited attention. This article employed a unique, global dataset with 30,284 participants across 30 countries (in 19 languages) to provide insights on 3 questions. We first leveraged the global dataset to map the incidence of fear, hope, anger, sadness, and worry across countries-the first time the climate emotions of adults are investigated on this scale. We also identified significant differences in emotions by level of development, with those in advanced economies reporting weaker levels of climate emotions. Second, using multiple linear regression analyses, we explored the relationship between climate emotions and support for climate-intervention technologies. We determined that the emotions of hope and worry seem to be the most consistently (positively) correlated. Third, we explored if reading about technology categories differentially affected climate emotions. Individuals randomly assigned to read about ecosystems-based CDR were significantly more hopeful about climate change (those about SRM the least). Together, our results provide the first global-level evidence of the relationship between discrete climate emotions and perceptions and support of climate interventions.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2323-2340"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3,"publicationDate":"2025-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12411122/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143633612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Information value versus flexibility cost: Comparison of dual sourcing and artificial intelligence sourcing for resilient supply. 信息价值与灵活性成本：弹性供应的双重采购和人工智能采购的比较。

IF 3.3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-08-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70005

Baozhuang Niu, Zebin Zheng, Lingfeng Wang

引用次数: 0