Risk Analysis最新文献_第6页

A generalized multinomial probabilistic model for SARS-COV-2 infection prediction and public health intervention assessment in an indoor environment. 用于室内环境中 SARS-COV-2 感染预测和公共卫生干预评估的广义多项式概率模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17673

Victor O K Li, Jacqueline C K Lam, Yuxuan Sun, Yang Han, Kelvin Chan, Shanshan Wang, Jon Crowcroft, Jocelyn Downey, Qi Zhang

{"title":"A generalized multinomial probabilistic model for SARS-COV-2 infection prediction and public health intervention assessment in an indoor environment.","authors":"Victor O K Li, Jacqueline C K Lam, Yuxuan Sun, Yang Han, Kelvin Chan, Shanshan Wang, Jon Crowcroft, Jocelyn Downey, Qi Zhang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17673","url":null,"abstract":"SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and its sub-lineages have become the predominant variants globally since early 2022. As of January 2023, over 664 million confirmed cases and over 6.7 million deaths had been reported globally. Current infection models are limited by the need for large datasets or calibration to specific contexts, making them difficult to apply to different settings. This study aims to develop a generalized multinomial probabilistic model of airborne infection to assist public health decision-makers in evaluating the effectiveness of public health interventions (PHIs) across a broad spectrum of scenarios. The proposed model systematically incorporates group characteristics, epidemiology, viral loads, social activities, environmental conditions, and PHIs. Assumptions about social distance and contact duration that estimate infectivity during short-term group gatherings have been made. The study is differentiated from earlier works on probabilistic infection modeling in the following ways: (1) predicting new cases arising from more than one infectious person in a gathering, (2) incorporating additional key infection factors, and (3) evaluating the effectiveness of multiple PHIs on SARS-CoV-2 infection simultaneously. Although the results show that limiting group size has an impact on infection, improving ventilation has a much greater positive health impact. The proposed model is versatile and can flexibly accommodate other scenarios or airborne diseases by modifying the parameters allowing new factors to be added.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625392","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Investigating the role of community organizations in communicating extreme weather events in New York City: A content analysis. 调查社区组织在传播纽约市极端天气事件中的作用：内容分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17677

Christine Gilbert, Ruobing Li, Brian Colle, Josef Moses, Sarah Golden

{"title":"Investigating the role of community organizations in communicating extreme weather events in New York City: A content analysis.","authors":"Christine Gilbert, Ruobing Li, Brian Colle, Josef Moses, Sarah Golden","doi":"10.1111/risa.17677","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17677","url":null,"abstract":"The communication of extreme weather forecasts (e.g., heatwaves and extreme precipitation) is a challenge for weather forecasters and emergency managers who are tasked with keeping residents safe during often unprecedented situations. Weather models have inherent uncertainty, and the ability for potentially life-saving information to get to the people who need it most (e.g., those who need to evacuate) remains a challenge despite the proliferation of digital access to information and social media sites like Twitter. It is also unclear the role that community-based organizations and super-local governmental entities play or may play during weather events in transmitting weather information and providing assistance. In New York City, there remains robust inequality, with communities that are historically disadvantaged often suffering the highest number of deaths and level of destruction following weather events. Results from interviewing 26 New York City community leaders suggest that local organizations often act as intermediaries, passing on official weather information to members of their audience, regardless of the mission statement of their organization. Common challenges for communities in responding to extreme weather include lack of access to information, language barriers, and insufficient resources. Considerations for future weather communication strategies are discussed.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

From infodemic to resilience: Exploring COVID-19 protective measures in armed-conflict zone. 从信息到复原力：探索武装冲突地区的 COVID-19 保护措施。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17670

Mona Salim, Jiuchang Wei

{"title":"From infodemic to resilience: Exploring COVID-19 protective measures in armed-conflict zone.","authors":"Mona Salim, Jiuchang Wei","doi":"10.1111/risa.17670","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17670","url":null,"abstract":"The proliferation of inaccurate and misleading information about COVID-19 on social media poses a significant public health concern. This study examines the impact of the infodemic and beneficial information on COVID-19 protective behaviors in an armed-conflict country. Using the protective action decision model (PADM), data were collected from 1439 participants through a questionnaire in Yemen between August 2020 and April 2021. Structural equation modeling tested hypotheses generated by the PADM. The findings indicate that the infodemic reduces the likelihood of individuals adopting protective measures against COVID-19. Surprisingly, official announcements by accountable authorities do not moderate the relationship between the infodemic and protective responses. These results highlight the need for further research on resilience in armed-conflict countries. This study contributes to understanding armed-conflict countries' unique challenges in combating health crises. Addressing the infodemic and promoting accurate information is crucial in enhancing protective behaviors and mitigating the negative impact of misinformation. Policymakers and public health authorities can utilize these insights to develop targeted interventions and communication strategies that ensure accurate information dissemination and encourage the adoption of adequate protective measures.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625422","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Optimal sampling strategy for probability estimation: An application to the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring program. 概率估计的最优抽样策略：农业检疫检验监测计划的应用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17669

Huidi Ma, Benjamin D Leibowicz, John J Hasenbein

{"title":"Optimal sampling strategy for probability estimation: An application to the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring program.","authors":"Huidi Ma, Benjamin D Leibowicz, John J Hasenbein","doi":"10.1111/risa.17669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17669","url":null,"abstract":"Imported agricultural pests can cause substantial damage to agriculture, food security, and ecosystems. In the United States, the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection Monitoring (AQIM) program conducts random sampling to estimate the probabilities that cargo and passengers arriving at ports of entry carry pests. Assessing these risks accurately is critical to enable effective policies and operational procedures. This study introduces a pathway-level analysis with an objective function aligned with AQIM's goal, offering a new perspective compared to the current container-by-container approach, which relies on heuristics to set inspection rates. We formulate an optimization model that minimizes the mean squared error of the probability estimates that AQIM obtains. The central decision-making tradeoff that the model explores is whether it is preferable to sample more arriving containers (and fewer boxes per container) or more boxes per container (and fewer containers), given limited resources. We first derive an analytical solution for the optimal sampling strategy by leveraging several approximations. Then, we apply our model to a numerical case study of maritime cargo sampling at the Port of Long Beach. Across a wide range of parameter settings, the optimal strategy samples more containers (but fewer boxes per container) than the current AQIM protocol. The difference between the two strategies and the accuracy improvement with the optimal approach are larger if the pest statuses of boxes in the same container are more strongly correlated. We recommend that AQIM record box-level (beyond only container-level) inspection data, which could be used to estimate this correlation and other model parameters.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The need for general adaptive capacity-Discussing resilience with complex adaptive systems theory. 对一般适应能力的需求--用复杂适应系统理论讨论复原力。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17676

Benjamin Scharte

{"title":"The need for general adaptive capacity-Discussing resilience with complex adaptive systems theory.","authors":"Benjamin Scharte","doi":"10.1111/risa.17676","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17676","url":null,"abstract":"The concept of resilience intrinsically links with both complexity and adaptive capacity. Scholars from different fields agree on this. Still, the detailed relations between resilience, complexity, and adaptive capacity need a more thorough theoretical analysis. This article analyses resilience with the help of assumptions from complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory to answer two questions in more detail: What is the relation between resilience and complexity? How can adaptive capacity contribute to resilience? By applying basic ideas from CAS theory to the resilience discourse, the article deduces that complexity of a system is a necessary condition for resilience because complex systems consist of agents that possess adaptive capacity, whereas simple systems consist of mere elements that cannot adapt to unexpected disruptions. The relation between complexity and resilience is multidimensional. Growing complexity leads to a growing need for resilience because the chances for severe, unexpected disruptions increase. The analysis of adaptive capacities revealed that systems and the agents they consist of can possess of specialized and general adaptive capacity. General adaptive capacity is the core feature of resilience because it enables systems to cope with unexpected disruptions. System design principles such as diversity within functional groups and redundancy help to increase general adaptive capacity. The same is true on the community level for social capital and on the individual level for disaster preparedness measures because they increase coping capacities independent of specific hazards.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142625880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decoding derogation: The impact of environmental values and political ideology on the effect of persuasive message about recycle and reuse behaviors. 解码贬损：环境价值观和政治意识形态对有关回收和再利用行为的说服信息效果的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17674

Prerna Shah, Janet Z Yang

引用次数: 0

Benchmark dose modeling for epidemiological dose-response assessment using case-control studies. 利用病例对照研究进行流行病学剂量反应评估的基准剂量模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17671

Francesco De Pretis, Yun Zhou, Kan Shao

{"title":"Benchmark dose modeling for epidemiological dose-response assessment using case-control studies.","authors":"Francesco De Pretis, Yun Zhou, Kan Shao","doi":"10.1111/risa.17671","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17671","url":null,"abstract":"Following a previous article that focused on integrating epidemiological data from prospective cohort studies into toxicological risk assessment, this paper shifts the focus to case-control studies. Specifically, it utilizes the odds ratio (OR) as the main epidemiological measure, aligning it with the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology as the standard dose-response modeling approach to determine chemical toxicity values for regulatory risk assessment. A standardized BMD analysis framework has been established for toxicological data, including input data requirements, dose-response models, definitions of benchmark response, and consideration of model uncertainty. This framework has been enhanced by recent methods capable of handling both cohort and case-control studies using summary data that have been adjusted for confounders. The present study aims to investigate and compare the \"effective count\" based BMD modeling approach, merged with an algorithm used for converting odds ratio to relative risk in cohort studies with partial data information (i.e., the Wang algorithm), with the adjusted OR-based BMD analysis approach. The goal is to develop an adequate BMD modeling framework that can be generalized for analyzing published case-control study data. As in the previous study, these methods were applied to a database examining the association between bladder and lung cancer and inorganic arsenic exposure. The results indicate that estimated BMDs and BMDLs are relatively consistent across both methods. However, modeling adjusted OR values as continuous data for BMD estimation aligns better with established practices in toxicological BMD analysis, making it a more generalizable approach.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142568772","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The lasting effect of the Romantic view of nature: How it influences perceptions of risk and the support of symbolic actions against climate change. 浪漫主义自然观的持久影响：浪漫主义自然观如何影响人们对风险的认识以及对气候变化象征性行动的支持。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-03 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17672

Michael Siegrist, Anne Berthold

{"title":"The lasting effect of the Romantic view of nature: How it influences perceptions of risk and the support of symbolic actions against climate change.","authors":"Michael Siegrist, Anne Berthold","doi":"10.1111/risa.17672","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17672","url":null,"abstract":"Culture can have a major impact on how we perceive different hazards. In the Romantic period, nature was described and portrayed as mysterious and benevolent. A deep connection to nature was perceived as important. We proposed that this romantic view would be positively related to people's risk perceptions of man-made hazards and, more specifically, to concerns about climate change. Further, we hypothesized that the Romantic perception of nature leads to a biased perception of natural hazards and that the moral component of action is of particular importance above and beyond the mere efficacy of the action. We conducted an online survey in Germany (N = 531), a country where Romanticism had a very widespread influence. The study shows that individuals with a Romantic view of nature perceived greater risks associated with climate change than those without such a view. In addition, those with a Romantic view of nature were more likely to support measures to reduce the risks of climate change, even when it is said that such measures are not effective. Finally, the study found a significantly higher positive correlation between Romantic views of nature and risk perceptions of man-made versus natural hazards. The results suggest that ideas developed during the Romantic era continue to influence hazard perception in Germany.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142568924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Evidence and uncertainty: An info-gap analysis of uncertainty-augmenting evidence. 证据与不确定性：不确定性证据的信息差距分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-06 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14346

Yakov Ben-Haim

{"title":"Evidence and uncertainty: An info-gap analysis of uncertainty-augmenting evidence.","authors":"Yakov Ben-Haim","doi":"10.1111/risa.14346","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14346","url":null,"abstract":"Decisions in many disciplines are based on understanding and evidence. More evidence is better than less when it enhances the decision-maker's understanding. This is achieved by reducing uncertainty confronting the decision-maker and reducing the potential for misunderstanding and failure. However, some evidence may actually augment uncertainty by revealing prior error or ignorance. True evidence that augments uncertainty is important because it identifies inadequacies of current understanding and may suggest directions for rectifying this. True evidence that reduces uncertainty may simply reconfirm or strengthen prior understanding. Uncertainty-augmenting evidence, when it is true, can support the expansion of one's previously incomplete understanding. A dilemma arises because both reduction and enhancement of uncertainty can be beneficial, and both are not simultaneously possible on the same issue. That is, uncertainty can be either pernicious or propitious. Info-gap theory provides a response. The info-gap robustness function enables protection against pernicious uncertainty by inhibiting failure. The info-gap opportuneness function enables exploitation of propitious uncertainty by facilitating wonderful windfall outcomes. The dilemma of uncertainty-augmenting evidence is that robustness and opportuneness are in conflict; a decision that enhances one, worsens the other. This antagonism between robustness and opportuneness-between protecting against pernicious uncertainty and exploiting propitious uncertainty-is characterized in a generic proposition and corollary. These results are illustrated in an example of allocation of limited resources.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2649-2659"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141284677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment. 货运列车长度与脱轨风险之间的关系。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-11-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14312

Peter M Madsen, Robin L Dillon, Konstantinos P Triantis, Joseph A Bradley

{"title":"The relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment.","authors":"Peter M Madsen, Robin L Dillon, Konstantinos P Triantis, Joseph A Bradley","doi":"10.1111/risa.14312","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14312","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, longer and heavier trains have become more common, primarily driven by efficiency and cost-saving measures in the railroad industry. Regulation of train length is currently under consideration in the United States at both the federal and state levels, because of concerns that longer trains may have a higher risk of derailment, but the relationship between train length and risk of derailment is not yet well understood. In this study, we use data on freight train accidents during the 2013-2022 period from the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) Rail Equipment Accident and Highway-Rail Grade Crossing Accident databases to estimate the relationship between freight train length and the risk of derailment. We determine that longer trains do have a greater risk of derailment. Based on our analysis, running 100-car trains is associated with 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.12) times the derailment odds of running 50-car trains (or a 11% increase), even accounting for the fact that only half as many 100-car trains would need to run. For 200-car trains, the odds increase by 24% (odds ratio 1.24, 95% confidence interval: 1.20-1.28), again accounting for the need for fewer trains. Understanding derailment risk is an important component for evaluating the overall safety of the rail system and for the future development and regulation of freight rail transportation. Given the limitations of the current data on freight train length, this study provides an important step toward such an understanding.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2616-2628"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141162323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0