Risk Analysis最新文献_第6页

It is, uh, very likely? The impact of prosodic uncertainty cues on the perception and interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases. 很有可能？前音不确定性线索对口语概率短语的感知和解释的影响。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14319

Ruben D Vromans, Charlot C M van de Ven, Sanne J W Willems, Emiel J Krahmer, Marc G J Swerts

{"title":"It is, uh, very likely? The impact of prosodic uncertainty cues on the perception and interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases.","authors":"Ruben D Vromans, Charlot C M van de Ven, Sanne J W Willems, Emiel J Krahmer, Marc G J Swerts","doi":"10.1111/risa.14319","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14319","url":null,"abstract":"People typically use verbal probability phrases when discussing risks (\"It is likely that this treatment will work\"), both in written and spoken communication. When speakers are uncertain about risks, they can nonverbally signal this uncertainty by using prosodic cues, such as a rising, question-like intonation or a filled pause (\"uh\"). We experimentally studied the effects of these two prosodic cues on the listener's perceived speaker certainty and numerical interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases. Participants (N = 115) listened to various verbal probability phrases that were uttered with a rising or falling global intonation and with or without a filled pause before the probability phrase. For each phrase, they gave a point estimate of their numerical interpretation in percentages and indicated how certain they thought the speaker was about the correctness of the probability phrase. Speakers were perceived as least certain when the verbal probability phrases were spoken with both prosodic uncertainty cues. Interpretation of verbal probability phrases varied widely across participants, especially when rising intonation was produced by the speaker. Overall, high probability phrases (e.g., \"very likely\") were estimated as lower (and low probability phrases, such as \"unlikely,\" as higher) when they were uttered with a rising intonation. The effects of filled pauses were less pronounced, as were the uncertainty effects for medium probability phrases (e.g., \"probable\"). These results stress the importance of nonverbal communication when verbally communicating risks and probabilities to people, for example, in the context of doctor-patient communication.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"2496-2515"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140923162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How do multidimensional energy justices work?: Specifying the role of anthropocentric and ecological justice in the acceptance of solar energy. 多维能源正义是如何发挥作用的？

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17650

Sehyeok Jeon, Seoyong Kim, Miri Kim

{"title":"How do multidimensional energy justices work?: Specifying the role of anthropocentric and ecological justice in the acceptance of solar energy.","authors":"Sehyeok Jeon, Seoyong Kim, Miri Kim","doi":"10.1111/risa.17650","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17650","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzed the acceptance of solar energy in terms of energy justice. The critical issue of energy supply, demand, and transition is a process of social redistribution of risks from old to new energy systems. The question of the appropriate distribution of risks for the energy system is closely related to energy justice. Previous studies are limited in empirically testing whether or not energy justice can contribute to the acceptance of new energy system. In addition, previous studies have heavily depended on energy justice in terms of anthropocentric type. Anthropocentric definitions of energy justice have focused primarily on the benefits and costs allocated only to humans. Such an anthropocentric view of justice lacks consideration of the value of various ecological beings. Therefore, this study aims to shed light on the role of not only four anthropocentric types of energy justices but also on for four ecological ones in the acceptance of solar energy. The analysis reveals that recognitive justice, generational justice, deep ecological justice, social ecological justice, and distributional justice positively influence the acceptance of solar energy, whereas procedural justice, restorative justice, and eco-socialist justice have no effect on it. In particular, this study found that recognitive justice moderates the effect of personal norms on acceptance of solar energy, whereas restorative justice moderates the effect of knowledge on it.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142353070","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk early warning for unmanned aerial vehicle operators' unsafe acts: A prediction model using Human Factors Analysis and Classification System and random forest. 无人机操作员不安全行为的风险预警：使用人为因素分析与分类系统和随机森林的预测模型。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17655

Qin Xiao, Yapeng Li, Fan Luo

{"title":"Risk early warning for unmanned aerial vehicle operators' unsafe acts: A prediction model using Human Factors Analysis and Classification System and random forest.","authors":"Qin Xiao, Yapeng Li, Fan Luo","doi":"10.1111/risa.17655","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17655","url":null,"abstract":"The prediction of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) operators' unsafe acts is critical for preventing UAV incidents. However, there is a lack of research specifically focusing on UAV operators' unsafe acts, and existing approaches in related areas often lack precision and effectiveness. To address this, we propose a hybrid approach that combines the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) with random forest (RF) to predict and warn against UAV operators' unsafe acts. Initially, we introduce an improved HFACS framework to identify risk factors influencing the unsafe acts. Subsequently, we utilize the adaptive synthetic sampling algorithm (ADASYN) to rectify the imbalance in the dataset. The RF model is then used to construct a risk prediction and early warning model, as well as to identify critical risk factors associated with the unsafe acts. The results obtained through the improved HFACS framework reveal 33 risk factors, encompassing environmental influences, industry influences, unsafe supervision, and operators' states, contributing to the unsafe acts. The RF model demonstrates a significant improvement in prediction performance after applying ADASYN. The critical risk factors associated with the unsafe acts are identified as weak safety awareness, allowing unauthorized flight activities, lack of legal awareness, lack of supervision system, and obstacles. The findings of this study can assist policymakers in formulating effective measures to mitigate incidents resulting from UAV operators' unsafe acts.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142353071","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the compatibility of established methods with emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning methods for disaster risk analysis. 灾害风险分析中既有方法与新兴人工智能和机器学习方法的兼容性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17640

Shital Thekdi, Unal Tatar, Joost Santos, Samrat Chatterjee

{"title":"On the compatibility of established methods with emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning methods for disaster risk analysis.","authors":"Shital Thekdi, Unal Tatar, Joost Santos, Samrat Chatterjee","doi":"10.1111/risa.17640","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17640","url":null,"abstract":"There is growing interest in leveraging advanced analytics, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for disaster risk analysis (RA) applications. These emerging methods offer unprecedented abilities to assess risk in settings where threats can emerge and transform quickly by relying on \"learning\" through datasets. There is a need to understand these emerging methods in comparison to the more established set of risk assessment methods commonly used in practice. These existing methods are generally accepted by the risk community and are grounded in use across various risk application areas. The next frontier in RA with emerging methods is to develop insights for evaluating the compatibility of those risk methods with more recent advancements in AI/ML, particularly with consideration of usefulness, trust, explainability, and other factors. This article leverages inputs from RA and AI experts to investigate the compatibility of various risk assessment methods, including both established methods and an example of a commonly used AI-based method for disaster RA applications. This article utilizes empirical evidence from expert perspectives to support key insights on those methods and the compatibility of those methods. This article will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in risk-analytics disciplines who leverage AI/ML methods.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142294386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Case study: The downside of using a worst‐case approach in occupational safety policy as an interpretation of the precautionary principle: Putting the uncertain UXO occupational safety risk into probabilistic perspective 案例研究：在职业安全政策中使用最坏情况方法作为对预防原则的解释的弊端：从概率角度看待不确定的未爆炸弹药职业安全风险

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17653

Marijn Helsloot, Wino Snip, Ira Helsloot

引用次数: 0

Reexploring the conception of heat-health risk: From the perspectives of dimensionality and spatiality. 重新探讨热健康风险的概念：从维度和空间的角度。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17645

Binbin Peng, Marccus D Hendricks, Gregory R Hancock

{"title":"Reexploring the conception of heat-health risk: From the perspectives of dimensionality and spatiality.","authors":"Binbin Peng, Marccus D Hendricks, Gregory R Hancock","doi":"10.1111/risa.17645","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17645","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme heat events are more frequent and intense as a result of global climate change, thus posing tremendous threats to public health. However, extant literature exploring the multidimensional features of heat-health risks from a spatial perspective is limited. This study revisits extreme heat-health risk and decomposes this concept by integrating multi-sourced datasets, identifying compositional features, examining spatial patterns, and comparing classified characteristics based on local conditions. Using Maryland as the focal point, we found that the components of heat-health risk are different from traditional risk dimensions (i.e., vulnerability, hazards, and exposure). Through a local-level clustering analysis, heat-health risks were compared with areas having similar features, and among those with different features. The findings suggest a new perspective for understanding the socio-environmental and socio-spatial features of heat-health risks. They also offer an apt example of applying cross-disciplinary methods and tools for investigating an ever-changing phenomenon. Moreover, the spatial classification mechanism provides insights about the underlying causes of heat-health risk disparities and offers reference points for decision-makers regarding identification of vulnerable areas, resource allocation, and causal inferences when planning for and managing extreme heat disasters.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142294387","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A victim risk identification model for nature‐induced urban disaster emergency response 自然诱发城市灾害应急响应的受害者风险识别模型

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-15 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17456

Weipeng Fang, Genserik Reniers, Dan Zhou, Jian Yin, Zhongmin Liu

{"title":"A victim risk identification model for nature‐induced urban disaster emergency response","authors":"Weipeng Fang, Genserik Reniers, Dan Zhou, Jian Yin, Zhongmin Liu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17456","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17456","url":null,"abstract":"In recent years, nature‐induced urban disasters in high‐density modern cities in China have raised great concerns. The delayed and imprecise understanding of the real‐time post‐disaster situation made it difficult for the decision‐makers to find a suitable emergency rescue plan. To this end, this study aims to facilitate the real‐time performance and accuracy of on‐site victim risk identification. In this article, we propose a victim identification model based on the You Only Look Once v7‐W6 (YOLOv7‐W6) algorithm. This model defines the “fall‐down” pose as a key feature in identifying urgent victims from the perspective of disaster medicine rescue. The results demonstrate that this model performs superior accuracy (mAP@0.5, 0.960) and inference speed (5.1 ms) on the established disaster victim database compared to other state‐of‐the‐art object detection algorithms. Finally, a case study is illustrated to show the practical utilization of this model in a real disaster rescue scenario. This study proposes an intelligent on‐site victim risk identification approach, contributing significantly to government emergency decision‐making and response.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142262289","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Enhancing safety feedback to the design of small, unmanned aircraft by joint assessment of impact area and human fatality 通过联合评估撞击面积和人员死亡率，加强对小型无人驾驶飞机设计的安全反馈

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17649

Chengpeng Jiang, Henk Blom, Borrdephong Rattanagraikanakorn

{"title":"Enhancing safety feedback to the design of small, unmanned aircraft by joint assessment of impact area and human fatality","authors":"Chengpeng Jiang, Henk Blom, Borrdephong Rattanagraikanakorn","doi":"10.1111/risa.17649","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17649","url":null,"abstract":"Advantages of commercial UAS‐based services come with the disadvantage of posing third party risk (TPR) to overflown population on the ground. Especially challenging is that the imposed level of ground TPR tends to increase linearly with the density of potential customers of UAS services. This challenge asks for the development of complementary directions in reducing ground TPR. The first direction is to reduce the rate of a UAS crash to the ground. The second direction is to reduce overflying in more densely populated areas by developing risk‐aware UAS path planning strategies. The third direction is to develop UAS designs that reduce the product in case of a crashing UAS, where is the size of the crash impact area on the ground, and is the probability of fatality for a person in the crash impact area. Because small UAS accident and incident data are scarce, each of these three developments is in need of predictive models regarding their contribution to ground TPR. Such models have been well developed for UAS crash event rate and risk‐aware UAS path planning. The objective of this article is to develop an improved model and assessment method for the product In literature, the model development and assessment of the latter two terms is accomplished along separate routes. The objective of this article is to develop an integrated approach. The first step is the development of an integrated model for the product . The second step is to show that this integrated model can be assessed by conducting dynamical simulations of Finite Element (FE) or Multi‐Body System (MBS) models of collision between a UAS and a human body. Application of this novel method is illustrated and compared to existing methods for a DJI Phantom III UAS crashing to the ground.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142262290","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Quantitative risk assessment of radiocesium associated with Japanese foods imported into the United Kingdom 英国进口日本食品中铯的定量风险评估

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17643

Amie Adkin, Kay Rylands, Jessica Goodman, Wayne Oatway, Frederique M. Uy, Joanne Edge, Claire Potter

{"title":"Quantitative risk assessment of radiocesium associated with Japanese foods imported into the United Kingdom","authors":"Amie Adkin, Kay Rylands, Jessica Goodman, Wayne Oatway, Frederique M. Uy, Joanne Edge, Claire Potter","doi":"10.1111/risa.17643","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17643","url":null,"abstract":"Damage to a nuclear power station resulted in radioactive contamination of certain areas of Japan in 2011. Legislation was put in place in Europe to establish controls on the import of certain types of food and feed, including a limit of 100 radioactive decays (becquerel, Bq) per second of radiocesium per kg. This legislation was retained in the United Kingdom after leaving the EU and then reviewed in 2021. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the radiological risk to public health from consuming Japanese food imported into the United Kingdom should the maximum level on radiocesium be removed. Although Japanese monitoring data indicated occurrences when products exceeded the 100 Bq per kg limit, these were found to be rare; a total of 1485 occurrences (0.0013%) of all measured foodstuff samples (>1 million) within the scope of this assessment had radiocesium activity concentrations that exceeded 100 Bq per kg. Using the recorded occurrence and level of radiocesium measured, and the current pattern and volume of food imported from Japan, there was an estimated excess risk of fatal cancer of around one in a million per year, categorized as negligible compared to the baseline 2018–2020 UK cancer fatality rate of around 1 in 4. On the basis of the described assessment and the estimated small additional risk, Great Britain lifted import controls related to radioactivity present in food from Japan. A number of recommendations to address data gaps and approaches in this assessment are made, particularly how we can improve modeling UK dietary habits for specialist foods.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142262291","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The development of resilience research in critical infrastructure systems: A bibliometric perspective 关键基础设施系统复原力研究的发展：文献计量学视角

IF 3.8 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17648

Feng Wang, Jin Tian, Zhengguo Xu

{"title":"The development of resilience research in critical infrastructure systems: A bibliometric perspective","authors":"Feng Wang, Jin Tian, Zhengguo Xu","doi":"10.1111/risa.17648","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17648","url":null,"abstract":"Critical infrastructure systems (CISs) are the cornerstone of modern cities. Substantial economic losses and social impacts are caused once natural disasters or man‐made disruptions attack the CISs. As a “resilient city” has become an essential theme of communities’ sustainable development, research on resilience and its practice in industries boost the CISs’ capacity to respond and adapt to changing environments. From the Web of Science (WOS) Core Collection, this study screened 1,247 scientific articles related to resilience in CISs and conducted a bibliometric analysis to investigate the evolution and future potential in this field. Topic visualized networks were constructed for CIS resilience using CiteSpace, a dedicated tool for visualizing and analyzing trends and patterns in scientific literature. The results demonstrate collaborative research networks among countries, institutions, main scholar/group networks, and leading journals publishing CIS resilience work. This study also explained how the research interest evolved over the last 20 years and found the current frontiers pointing to “power systems resilience” and “supply chain resilience.” The reasons were discussed subsequently from the perspectives of the influence that natural hazards (based on the EM‐DAT data) and government policies have upon CISs’ resilience work.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":"290 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0