在悬崖上航行:青铜时代晚期的崩溃教训。

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS
Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI:10.1111/risa.70019
S E Galaitsi, Benjamin D Trump, Eric H Cline, Maksim Kitsak, Igor Linkov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

公元前1200年左右,东地中海的青铜时代晚期(LBA)社会经历了集体崩溃,这在被摧毁和遗弃的城市的考古遗迹中很明显。根据我们之前对这一主题的探索,我们假设LBA社会之间的网络结构放大了复杂的威胁,产生了一连串的失败,最终导致了一个陡峭的广泛的系统崩溃。网络,通常被视为繁荣的管道,传播了单个节点的问题。在此,我们讨论Linkov等人(2024)对LBA崩溃的网络分析的发现及其对当前全球背景下脆弱性的影响,因为我们的系统在追求社会复杂性的过程中超过了承载能力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Navigating the precipice: Lessons on collapse from the Late Bronze Age.

Around 1200 BCE, the societies of the Late Bronze Age (LBA) in the Eastern Mediterranean experienced a collective collapse, evident in the archeological remains of destroyed and abandoned cities. Following our prior explorations in this topic, we hypothesize that the network structure between the LBA societies amplified compounding threats, producing a cascade of failures that culminated in a precipitous broad systemic collapse. The network, so often seen as a conduit for prosperity, propagated the problems of individual nodes. Herein we discuss the findings of Linkov et al.'s (2024) network analysis of the LBA collapse and its implications regarding vulnerabilities in our current global context as our systems surpass carrying capacity in our pursuit of societal complexity.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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