{"title":"以碳税和碳减排为代价,紧急订单转移是否比恢复等待更好?","authors":"Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song","doi":"10.1111/risa.70051","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>In recent years, frequent extreme disasters have challenged supply chain operations while smart risk warning systems are developed to facilitate firms' emergency order shifting to a new manufacturer. It is noted that reliable manufacturers are usually located in countries/regions levying carbon tax to achieve high ESG scores, so we consider a cross-border supply chain consisting of a global brand, a local brand, an overseas manufacturer and a local manufacturer to investigate the main tradeoffs for the global brand to emergently shift orders from the overseas manufacturer facing disruptions to a stable local manufacturer subject to carbon tax cost. The global brand has the option to wait for the recovery of overseas production but if it chooses emergent order shifting, it has to invest in carbon emission reduction due to ESG requirements. We intriguingly find that even though emergency order shifting helps avert delays caused by production disruptions, a more resilient supply chain does not necessarily lead to a higher profit for the global brand, depending on factors such as the relative market size, carbon tax cost, and the efficiency of carbon reduction investment. We also find that the global brand's emergency order shifting enables Pareto improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, but the win-win opportunities for both the global and local brand only appear under the recovery waiting strategy. So it is generally hard to coordinate the stakeholders' incentives to jointly optimize the ESG scores.</p>","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction?\",\"authors\":\"Baozhuang Niu, Lihua Zhu, Jian Dong, Jinbo Song\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/risa.70051\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>In recent years, frequent extreme disasters have challenged supply chain operations while smart risk warning systems are developed to facilitate firms' emergency order shifting to a new manufacturer. It is noted that reliable manufacturers are usually located in countries/regions levying carbon tax to achieve high ESG scores, so we consider a cross-border supply chain consisting of a global brand, a local brand, an overseas manufacturer and a local manufacturer to investigate the main tradeoffs for the global brand to emergently shift orders from the overseas manufacturer facing disruptions to a stable local manufacturer subject to carbon tax cost. The global brand has the option to wait for the recovery of overseas production but if it chooses emergent order shifting, it has to invest in carbon emission reduction due to ESG requirements. We intriguingly find that even though emergency order shifting helps avert delays caused by production disruptions, a more resilient supply chain does not necessarily lead to a higher profit for the global brand, depending on factors such as the relative market size, carbon tax cost, and the efficiency of carbon reduction investment. We also find that the global brand's emergency order shifting enables Pareto improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, but the win-win opportunities for both the global and local brand only appear under the recovery waiting strategy. So it is generally hard to coordinate the stakeholders' incentives to jointly optimize the ESG scores.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":21472,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Risk Analysis\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-06\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Risk Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70051\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Risk Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70051","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Will emergency order shifting perform better than recovery waiting at costs of carbon tax and carbon emission reduction?
In recent years, frequent extreme disasters have challenged supply chain operations while smart risk warning systems are developed to facilitate firms' emergency order shifting to a new manufacturer. It is noted that reliable manufacturers are usually located in countries/regions levying carbon tax to achieve high ESG scores, so we consider a cross-border supply chain consisting of a global brand, a local brand, an overseas manufacturer and a local manufacturer to investigate the main tradeoffs for the global brand to emergently shift orders from the overseas manufacturer facing disruptions to a stable local manufacturer subject to carbon tax cost. The global brand has the option to wait for the recovery of overseas production but if it chooses emergent order shifting, it has to invest in carbon emission reduction due to ESG requirements. We intriguingly find that even though emergency order shifting helps avert delays caused by production disruptions, a more resilient supply chain does not necessarily lead to a higher profit for the global brand, depending on factors such as the relative market size, carbon tax cost, and the efficiency of carbon reduction investment. We also find that the global brand's emergency order shifting enables Pareto improvement of economic and environmental sustainability, but the win-win opportunities for both the global and local brand only appear under the recovery waiting strategy. So it is generally hard to coordinate the stakeholders' incentives to jointly optimize the ESG scores.
期刊介绍:
Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include:
• Human health and safety risks
• Microbial risks
• Engineering
• Mathematical modeling
• Risk characterization
• Risk communication
• Risk management and decision-making
• Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics
• Laws and regulatory policy
• Ecological risks.