Risk Analysis最新文献_第9页

Delineating dengue risk zones in Jaipur: An interdisciplinary approach to inform public health strategies. 划定斋浦尔登革热风险区：为公共卫生战略提供信息的跨学科方法。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15102

Shruti Kanga, Priyanka Roy, Suraj Kumar Singh, Gowhar Meraj, Pankaj Kumar, Jatan Debnath

{"title":"Delineating dengue risk zones in Jaipur: An interdisciplinary approach to inform public health strategies.","authors":"Shruti Kanga, Priyanka Roy, Suraj Kumar Singh, Gowhar Meraj, Pankaj Kumar, Jatan Debnath","doi":"10.1111/risa.15102","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15102","url":null,"abstract":"Dengue fever (DF) is a pervasive public health concern in tropical climates, with densely populated regions, such as India, disproportionately affected. Addressing this issue requires a multifaceted understanding of the environmental and sociocultural factors that contribute to the risk of dengue infection. This study aimed to identify high-risk zones for DF in Jaipur, Rajasthan, India, by integrating physical, demographic, and epidemiological data in a comprehensive risk analysis framework. We investigated environmental variables, such as soil type and plant cover, to characterize the potential habitats of Aedes aegypti, the primary dengue vector. Concurrently, demographic metrics were evaluated to assess the population's susceptibility to dengue outbreaks. High-risk areas were systematically identified through a comparative analysis that integrated population density and incidence rates per ward. The results revealed a significant correlation between high population density and an increased risk of dengue, predominantly facilitated by vertical transmission. Spatially, these high-risk zones are concentrated in the northern and southern sectors of Jaipur, with the northern and southwestern wards exhibiting the most acute risk profiles. This study underscores the importance of targeted public health interventions and vaccination campaigns in vulnerable areas. It further lays the groundwork for future research to evaluate the effectiveness of such interventions, thereby contributing to the development of robust evidence-based strategies for dengue risk mitigation.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"154-176"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141580744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Urban resilience governance mechanism: Insights from COVID-19 prevention and control in 30 Chinese cities. 城市韧性治理机制：中国 30 个城市 COVID-19 防控工作的启示。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14615

Cao Xia, Wang Delei

{"title":"Urban resilience governance mechanism: Insights from COVID-19 prevention and control in 30 Chinese cities.","authors":"Cao Xia, Wang Delei","doi":"10.1111/risa.14615","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14615","url":null,"abstract":"Due to the pervasive uncertainty in human society, super large and megacities are increasingly prone to becoming high-risk areas. However, the construction of urban resilience in this new era lacks sufficient research on the core conditions and complex interactive mechanisms governing it. Hence, this study proposes a specialized event-oriented framework for governing urban resilience in China based on the pressure-state-response (PSR) theory. We examined COVID-19 cases in 30 cities across China and analyzed the distribution of prevention and control achievements between high-level and non-high-level conditions. Our findings reveal the following key points: (1) High-level achievements in COVID-19 prevention and control rely on three condition configurations: non-pressure-responsive type, pressure-state type, and pressure-responsive type. (2) High economic resilience may indicate a robust state of urban systems amid demographic pressures. In cities experiencing fewer event pressure factors, the application of digital technology plays a crucial role in daily urban management. (3) The implementation of flexible policies proves beneficial in mitigating the impact of objective pressure conditions, such as environmental factors, on urban resilience.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"40-55"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141459058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Modeling and design of solar + storage-powered community resilience hubs across California. 加利福尼亚州太阳能+储能社区恢复中心的建模和设计。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14341

Patrick M Murphy, Yunus Kinkhabwala, Bethany Kwoka, Yanelli Nunez, Annelise Dillon, Audrey Amezcua-Smith, Elena Krieger

{"title":"Modeling and design of solar + storage-powered community resilience hubs across California.","authors":"Patrick M Murphy, Yunus Kinkhabwala, Bethany Kwoka, Yanelli Nunez, Annelise Dillon, Audrey Amezcua-Smith, Elena Krieger","doi":"10.1111/risa.14341","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14341","url":null,"abstract":"Distributed clean, reliable energy resources like solar plus battery storage (solar + storage) can reduce harmful emissions while supporting resilience. Solar + storage-powered resilience hubs provide energy for critical services during disasters while increasing human adaptive capacity year round. We studied where utility rates, local climate, and historical injustice make solar + storage resilience hubs more valuable and more challenging. We modeled the economic and climate impacts of outfitting candidate hub sites across California with solar + storage for everyday operations and identified designs and costs required to withstand a range of outages considering weather impacts on energy needs and availability. We integrated sociodemographic data to prioritize the siting of resilience hubs, to focus potential policy and funding priorities on regions where solar + storage for resilience hubs is hard or expensive, and where populations are most in need. We identified almost 20,000 candidate buildings with more than 8 GW of total rooftop solar potential capable of reducing CO2 emissions by 5 million tons per year while providing energy for community resilience. Hub capacity for one of the most challenging missions-providing emergency shelter during a power outage and smoke event-could have a statewide average lifetime cost of less than $2000 per seat. We identified regional challenges including insufficient rooftop solar capacity in cities, low sunlight in northern coastal California, and high costs driven by utility rate structures in Sacramento and the Imperial Valley. Results show that rates and net metering rules that incentivize solar + storage during everyday operations decrease resilience costs.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"56-77"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735336/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141459055","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Risk assessment of aflatoxin in Iowa corn post-harvest using an event tree analysis: A case study. 利用事件树分析法对爱荷华州玉米收获后黄曲霉毒素进行风险评估：案例研究。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15074

Emily Branstad-Spates, Gretchen A Mosher, Erin Bowers

{"title":"Risk assessment of aflatoxin in Iowa corn post-harvest using an event tree analysis: A case study.","authors":"Emily Branstad-Spates, Gretchen A Mosher, Erin Bowers","doi":"10.1111/risa.15074","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.15074","url":null,"abstract":"Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites produced by fungi found in corn and are anticipated to increase globally due to enhanced weather extremes and climate change. Aflatoxin (AFL) is of concern due to its harmful effects on human and animal health. AFL can move through complex grain supply chains in the United States, including multiple stakeholders from farms, grain elevators, grain and ethanol processors, and feed mills, before reaching end users, putting numerous entities at risk. Since corn is an essential food and feed product, risk management of AFL must be considered. This case study aimed to (1) calculate the probabilities of pivotal events with AFL in corn at Food Safety Modernization Act-regulated entities using an event tree analysis (ETA) and (2) propose recommendations based on factors identified through the ETA for AFL risk management. The ETA was based on historical AFL prevalence data in Iowa above a 20-part per billion (ppb) threshold (2.30%). Results showed four single-point failures in feed safety systems, where countermeasures did not function as designed. Failure is defined as the type 2 error of corn being infected with AFL <20 ppb, when it is >20 ppb, and the overall system fails to detect this with contaminated corn reaching end users. The success rate is defined as detecting the corn samples correctly >20 ppb. The average success rate was 50.14%, and the failure rate was 49.86%. It was concluded that risk-informed decisions are a critical component of effective AFL monitoring in corn, with timely intervention strategies needed to minimize the overall effects on end users.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"253-263"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735338/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141734989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

On the use of the term "real risk". 关于 "实际风险 "一词的使用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.15073

Roger Flage, Terje Aven, Ingrid Glette-Iversen

引用次数: 0

Compliance with social norms in the face of risks: Delineating the roles of uncertainty about risk perceptions versus risk perceptions. 在风险面前遵守社会规范：划分风险认知的不确定性与风险认知的作用。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/risa.16112

Jie Zhuang, Peyton Carey

{"title":"Compliance with social norms in the face of risks: Delineating the roles of uncertainty about risk perceptions versus risk perceptions.","authors":"Jie Zhuang, Peyton Carey","doi":"10.1111/risa.16112","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.16112","url":null,"abstract":"Social norms are often considered as behavioral guidelines to mitigate health and environmental risks. However, our understanding of the magnitude of their impact on risk-mitigating behaviors and how perceptions of risks affect the magnitude remains limited. Given the increasing importance of understanding factors influencing behavioral responses to health and environmental risks, this research examines whether the relationship between social norms and behavioral intention to mitigate health and environmental risks is a function of (1) risk perceptions and (2) uncertainty about risk perceptions. A cross-sectional survey involving a national sample (N = 803) across three health and environmental risks (i.e., infectious diseases, climate change, and water shortage) is conducted. The results reveal a three-way interaction between descriptive norms, uncertainty about susceptibility, and uncertainty about severity on behavioral intention to mitigate the risk. Individuals exhibit the strongest intention to engage in risk-mitigating behaviors when they perceive prevailing social norms and are uncertain about their susceptibility to the risk and the severity of the risk. Moreover, injunctive norms interact with uncertainty about susceptibility to influence behavioral intention, such that the more uncertain individuals feel about their vulnerability to a risk, the stronger the impact of injunctive norms is on behavioral intention. Neither descriptive nor injunctive norms interact with perceived risks to influence behavioral intention. This study contributes valuable insights into the interplay between social norms, uncertainty about perceived risk, and behavioral intention, and offers valuable theoretical and practical implications.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"240-252"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735341/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141731346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Travel bubble policies for low-risk air transport recovery during pandemics. 大流行病期间低风险航空运输恢复的旅行泡沫政策。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14348

Yaoming Zhou, Siping Li, Tanmoy Kundu, Tsan-Ming Choi, Jiuh-Biing Sheu

{"title":"Travel bubble policies for low-risk air transport recovery during pandemics.","authors":"Yaoming Zhou, Siping Li, Tanmoy Kundu, Tsan-Ming Choi, Jiuh-Biing Sheu","doi":"10.1111/risa.14348","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14348","url":null,"abstract":"Global pandemics restrict long-haul mobility and international trade. To restore air traffic, a policy named \"travel bubble\" was implemented during the recent COVID-19 pandemic, which seeks to re-establish air connections among specific countries by permitting unrestricted passenger travel without mandatory quarantine upon arrival. However, travel bubbles are prone to bursting for safety reasons, and how to develop an effective restoration plan through travel bubbles is under-explored. Thus, it is vital to learn from COVID-19 and develop a formal framework for implementing travel bubble therapy for future public health emergencies. This article conducts an analytical investigation of the air travel bubble problem from a network design standpoint. First, a link-based network design problem is established with the goal of minimizing the total infection risk during air travel. Then, based on the relationship between origin-destination pairs and international candidate links, the model is reformulated into a path-based one. A Lagrangian relaxation-based solution framework is proposed to determine the optimal restored international air routes and assign the traffic flow. Finally, computational experiments on both hypothetical data and real-world cases are conducted to examine the algorithm's performance. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model and algorithm. In addition, compared to a benchmark strategy, it is found that the infection risk under the proposed travel bubble strategy can be reduced by up to 45.2%. More importantly, this work provides practical insights into developing pandemic-induced air transport recovery schemes for both policymakers and aviation operations regulators.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"14-39"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11735345/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141459057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Resilient gas dependency-based planning of electricity distribution systems considering energy storage systems. 考虑储能系统的配电系统弹性燃气依赖规划。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-12-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17695

Mostafa Ghasemi, Mohammad Amin Gilani, Mohammad Hassan Amirioun

{"title":"Resilient gas dependency-based planning of electricity distribution systems considering energy storage systems.","authors":"Mostafa Ghasemi, Mohammad Amin Gilani, Mohammad Hassan Amirioun","doi":"10.1111/risa.17695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17695","url":null,"abstract":"This article presents a planning framework to improve the weather-related resilience of natural gas-dependent electricity distribution systems. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed integer linear programing model. In the first stage, the measures for distribution line hardening, gas-fired distributed generation (DG) placement, electrical energy storage resource allocation, and tie-switch placement are determined. The second stage minimizes the electricity distribution system load shedding in realized hurricanes to achieve a compromise between operational benefits and investment costs when the dependence of electricity distribution system on the natural gas exists. The proposed stochastic model considers random failures of electricity distribution system lines and random errors in forecasting the load demand. The Monte Carlo simulation is employed to generate multiple scenarios for defining the uncertainties of electricity distribution system. For the sake of simplicity, weather-related outages of natural gas pipelines are considered deterministic. The nonlinear natural gas constraints are linearized and incorporated into the stochastic optimization model. The proposed framework was successfully implemented on an interconnected energy system composed of a 33-bus electricity distribution system and a 14-node natural gas distribution network. Numerical results of the defined case studies and a devised comparative study validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework as well.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142897166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Perceived climate risk and stock prices: An empirical analysis of pricing effects. 感知气候风险与股票价格：定价效应的实证分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-12-26 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17683

Hachmi Ben Ameur, Daniel Dao, Zied Ftiti, Wael Louhichi

{"title":"Perceived climate risk and stock prices: An empirical analysis of pricing effects.","authors":"Hachmi Ben Ameur, Daniel Dao, Zied Ftiti, Wael Louhichi","doi":"10.1111/risa.17683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17683","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing awareness of climate change and its potential consequences on financial markets has led to interest in the impact of climate risk on stock returns and portfolio composition, but few studies have focused on perceived climate risk pricing. This study is the first to introduce perceived climate risk as an additional factor in asset pricing models. The perceived climate risk is measured based on the climate change sentiment of the Twitter dataset with 16 million unique tweets in the years 2010-2019. One of the main advantages of our proxy is that it allows us to capture both physical and transition climate risks. Our results show that perceived climate risk is priced into Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) Index stock returns and is robust when different asset-pricing models are used. Our findings have implications for market participants, as understanding the relationship between perceived climate risk and asset prices is crucial for investors seeking to navigate the financial implications of climate change and for policymakers aiming to promote sustainable financing and mitigate the potential damaging effects of climate risk on financial markets, and a pricing model that accurately incorporates perceived climate risk can facilitate this understanding.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142897164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A measure of information value for risk. 风险信息价值的度量。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-12-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17694

Antonis Targoutzidis

{"title":"A measure of information value for risk.","authors":"Antonis Targoutzidis","doi":"10.1111/risa.17694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.17694","url":null,"abstract":"Information is crucial for risk management; however, no quantified measure to evaluate risk information exists to date. The standard measure of value of factual information is information entropy-that is, the negative logarithm of probability. Despite its applications in various fields, this measure is insufficient for the evaluation of risk information; there are three reasons. First, it requires precise probabilities, which are generally absent in the context of risks. Second, it does not consider the effect of the consequences, which is essential for risks. Third, it does not account for human preferences and subjectivity. This study proposes a quantified measure for the evaluation of factual risk information-that is, observations of occurrence, particularly for binary, unambiguous, and rare phenomena. To develop such a measure, precise probabilities are replaced with updated probabilities, based on the Prospective Reference Theory. Additionally, utility is included as a proxy for the size of consequences. The third challenge-human preferences and subjectivity-is partly addressed by the application of updated perceived probabilities and utility as a measure of human preferences. Such a conventional, quantified measure facilitates the comparison of the potential impact of different messages for a new observation of occurrence for a risk, as well as of messages for different risks. Moreover, it clarifies the factors that systematically affect this impact. More particularly, it indicates the major effects of the perceived number of past occurrences.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142878039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0