Risk Analysis最新文献_第9页

Navigating the decision-making landscape of AI in risk finance: Techno-accountability unveiled. 驾驭风险金融领域的人工智能决策格局：揭开技术问责制的神秘面纱。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14336

Helmi Issa, Roy Dakroub, Hussein Lakkis, Jad Jaber

引用次数: 0

Quantitative assessment of machine learning reliability and resilience. 定量评估机器学习的可靠性和弹性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-07-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14666

Zakaria Faddi, Karen da Mata, Priscila Silva, Vidhyashree Nagaraju, Susmita Ghosh, Gokhan Kul, Lance Fiondella

{"title":"Quantitative assessment of machine learning reliability and resilience.","authors":"Zakaria Faddi, Karen da Mata, Priscila Silva, Vidhyashree Nagaraju, Susmita Ghosh, Gokhan Kul, Lance Fiondella","doi":"10.1111/risa.14666","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14666","url":null,"abstract":"Advances in machine learning (ML) have led to applications in safety-critical domains, including security, defense, and healthcare. These ML models are confronted with dynamically changing and actively hostile conditions characteristic of real-world applications, requiring systems incorporating ML to be reliable and resilient. Many studies propose techniques to improve the robustness of ML algorithms. However, fewer consider quantitative techniques to assess changes in the reliability and resilience of these systems over time. To address this gap, this study demonstrates how to collect relevant data during the training and testing of ML suitable for the application of software reliability, with and without covariates, and resilience models and the subsequent interpretation of these analyses. The proposed approach promotes quantitative risk assessment of ML technologies, providing the ability to track and predict degradation and improvement in the ML model performance and assisting ML and system engineers with an objective approach to compare the relative effectiveness of alternative training and testing methods. The approach is illustrated in the context of an image recognition model, which is subjected to two generative adversarial attacks and then iteratively retrained to improve the system's performance. Our results indicate that software reliability models incorporating covariates characterized the misclassification discovery process more accurately than models without covariates. Moreover, the resilience model based on multiple linear regression incorporating interactions between covariates tracks and predicts degradation and recovery of performance best. Thus, software reliability and resilience models offer rigorous quantitative assurance methods for ML-enabled systems and processes.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"790-807"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141752625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Managing risk and resilience in autonomous and intelligent systems: Exploring safety in the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence in healthcare. 管理自主和智能系统中的风险和复原力：探索在医疗保健领域开发、部署和使用人工智能的安全性。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/risa.14273

Carl Macrae

{"title":"Managing risk and resilience in autonomous and intelligent systems: Exploring safety in the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence in healthcare.","authors":"Carl Macrae","doi":"10.1111/risa.14273","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.14273","url":null,"abstract":"Autonomous and intelligent systems (AIS) are being developed and deployed across a wide range of sectors and encompass a variety of technologies designed to engage in different forms of independent reasoning and self-directed behavior. These technologies may bring considerable benefits to society but also pose a range of risk management challenges, particularly when deployed in safety-critical sectors where complex interactions between human, social, and technical processes underpin safety and resilience. Healthcare is one safety-critical sector at the forefront of efforts to develop and deploy intelligent technologies, such as through artificial intelligence (AI) systems intended to automate key aspects of healthcare tasks such as reading medical images to identify signs of pathology. This article develops a qualitative analysis of the sociotechnical sources of risk and resilience associated with the development, deployment, and use of AI in healthcare, drawing on 40 in-depth interviews with participants involved in the development, management, and regulation of AI. Qualitative template analysis is used to examine sociotechnical sources of risk and resilience, drawing on and elaborating Macrae's (2022, Risk Analysis, 42(9), 1999-2025) SOTEC framework that integrates structural, organizational, technological, epistemic, and cultural sources of risk in AIS. This analysis explores an array of sociotechnical sources of risk associated with the development, deployment, and use of AI in healthcare and identifies an array of sociotechnical patterns of resilience that may counter those risks. In doing so, the SOTEC framework is elaborated and translated to define key sources of both risk and resilience in AIS.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"910-927"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12032380/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139511235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Artificial intelligence for risk analysis and the risks of artificial intelligence: Part 1. 人工智能风险分析与人工智能风险：第1部分。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70017

Vicki Bier, Emanuele Borgonovo, Tony Cox, Cynthia Rudin

引用次数: 0

Rescue path planning for urban flood: A deep reinforcement learning-based approach. 城市洪水救援路径规划：基于深度强化学习的方法

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-11 DOI: 10.1111/risa.17599

Xiao-Yan Li, Xia Wang

{"title":"Rescue path planning for urban flood: A deep reinforcement learning-based approach.","authors":"Xiao-Yan Li, Xia Wang","doi":"10.1111/risa.17599","DOIUrl":"10.1111/risa.17599","url":null,"abstract":"Urban flooding is among the costliest natural disasters worldwide. Timely and effective rescue path planning is crucial for minimizing loss of life and property. However, current research on path planning often fails to adequately consider the need to assess area risk uncertainties and bypass complex obstacles in flood rescue scenarios, presenting significant challenges for developing optimal rescue paths. This study proposes a deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm incorporating four main mechanisms to address these issues. Dual-priority experience replays and backtrack punishment mechanisms enhance the precise estimation of area risks. Concurrently, random noisy networks and dynamic exploration techniques encourage the agent to explore unknown areas in the environment, thereby improving sampling and optimizing strategies for bypassing complex obstacles. The study constructed multiple grid simulation scenarios based on real-world rescue operations in major urban flood disasters. These scenarios included uncertain risk values for all passable areas and an increased presence of complex elements, such as narrow passages, C-shaped barriers, and jagged paths, significantly raising the challenge of path planning. The comparative analysis demonstrated that only the proposed algorithm could bypass all obstacles and plan the optimal rescue path across nine scenarios. This research advances the theoretical progress for urban flood rescue path planning by extending the scale of scenarios to unprecedented levels. It also develops RL mechanisms adaptable to various extremely complex obstacles in path planning. Additionally, it provides methodological insights into artificial intelligence to enhance real-world risk management.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":"928-943"},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141917417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zero Trust Architecture as a Risk Countermeasure in Small-Medium Enterprises and Advanced Technology Systems. 零信任架构作为中小企业和先进技术系统的风险对策。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-31 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70026

Ahmed M Abdelmagid, Rafael Diaz

{"title":"Zero Trust Architecture as a Risk Countermeasure in Small-Medium Enterprises and Advanced Technology Systems.","authors":"Ahmed M Abdelmagid, Rafael Diaz","doi":"10.1111/risa.70026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70026","url":null,"abstract":"The growing sophistication of cyberattacks exposes small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) to a widening range of security risks. As these threats evolve in complexity, the need for advanced security measures becomes increasingly pressing. This necessitates a proactive approach to defending against potential cyber intrusions. Emerging technologies, such as blockchain, artificial intelligence, and Zero Trust security framework, offer crucial tools for strengthening the digital infrastructure of SMBs. The Zero Trust architecture (ZTA) holds significant promise as a critical strategy for protecting SMBs. While existing literature explores the implementation of ZTA in various business settings, discussions specifically addressing the financial, human resource, and capability limitations of SMBs remain scarce. Given the vital role of SMBs in the global economy, this research offers a valuable opportunity to bridge this gap and assist researchers and practitioners in enhancing the cybersecurity of SMBs through ZTA adoption by examining and classifying potential risks that may arise during the pre- and post-deployment phases of ZTA implementation within SMBs. The risks, benefits, and challenges of ZTA adoption are introduced from the unique perspective of SMBs. Practical solutions and mitigation strategies will be provided to address the identified ZT risks and streamline the migration process for SMBs. The findings of that research showed that ZTA will bolster the cybersecurity posture and reduce the cyber risk for SMBs only if they address its associated risks effectively. Future research directions underscore the need for more research to help SMBs migrate to ZTA and mitigate the risks it may pose.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143754383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting landscape of terrorism: A 50-year spatiotemporal analysis. 恐怖主义的变化：一个50年的时空分析。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-30 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70018

Shupeng Lyu, Chen Qian, Ching-Hung Lee

{"title":"Shifting landscape of terrorism: A 50-year spatiotemporal analysis.","authors":"Shupeng Lyu, Chen Qian, Ching-Hung Lee","doi":"10.1111/risa.70018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70018","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of global terrorism from 1970 to 2020, providing a comprehensive understanding of its dynamics and patterns. The research seeks to fill gaps in existing literature by integrating geographic perspectives and methods to enhance the understanding of terrorism's spatial and temporal dimensions. The study employs a multi-methodological approach, combining the Mann-Kendall trend test, spatial autocorrelation analysis, kernel density estimation, and standard deviational ellipse. These methods are applied to data from 176 countries, covering 171,327 terrorist incidents recorded in the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) from 1970 to 2020. Pertinent findings are as follows. Temporally, global terrorism risk has evolved significantly over the past five decades and involves four distinct stages, i.e., emerging stage (1970-1991), descending stage (1992-2000), rampant stage (2001-2014), and attenuating stage (2015-2020). Meanwhile, 117 countries show an increasing trend, and 56 countries show a decreasing trend in terrorism risk. Spatially, the distribution of global terrorism is characterized by clustering and aggregation, with a constant shift in the gravity center and dominant direction. In addition, the spatial hotspots of global terrorism are predominantly presented as \"two major core circles and multiple sub-centers.\"","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143754380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessing the transition risks of environmental regulation in the United States: Revisiting the Porter hypothesis. 评估美国环境监管的转型风险：重新审视波特假说。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-23 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70022

Ioanna Stylianou, Michael Christofi, Isabella Karasamani, Marina Magidou

{"title":"Assessing the transition risks of environmental regulation in the United States: Revisiting the Porter hypothesis.","authors":"Ioanna Stylianou, Michael Christofi, Isabella Karasamani, Marina Magidou","doi":"10.1111/risa.70022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70022","url":null,"abstract":"The harmful effects of climate change have brought global warming into focus, prompting a growing body of research on its economic impact and the development of targeted climate policies aimed at mitigating these effects and promoting sustainability. Within this context, the main objective of this paper is to investigate whether the presence of transition risk drivers, in particular, the implementation of environmental policies in the United States, initiates risks or fosters green innovation and financial performance. This performance is related to the adjustment process toward a low-carbon economy, widely known as the Porter hypothesis. Using a panel threshold regression model over the period 1990-2020, our results show that market-based climate policies have a heterogeneous effect on the firm's green innovation and financial performance. Specifically, we find an inverted-U-shaped relationship between carbon price and firm outcomes including green innovation and financial performance. These findings have significant implications for practice, as they reveal the mechanism through which climate policies can optimally affect a firm's green innovation activity and financial performance.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143693014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Categorizing errors in high-reliability organizations: Adaptive range and adaptive capacity in incident response. 高可靠性组织中的错误分类：事件响应中的自适应范围和自适应能力。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70024

Elmar Kutsch, Haytham Siala, Chantal Cantarelli, Ibrat Djabbarov

引用次数: 0

An exploratory investigation on internal crisis communication across private and public sector employees in Indonesia. 对印尼私营和公共部门雇员内部危机沟通的探索性调查。

IF 3 3区医学

Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/risa.70006

Bahtiar Mohamad, Adamu Abbas Adamu, Sri Rahayu, Pijar Suciati, Nailul Mona, Syed Hassan Raza

{"title":"An exploratory investigation on internal crisis communication across private and public sector employees in Indonesia.","authors":"Bahtiar Mohamad, Adamu Abbas Adamu, Sri Rahayu, Pijar Suciati, Nailul Mona, Syed Hassan Raza","doi":"10.1111/risa.70006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.70006","url":null,"abstract":"Over the past 5 years, Indonesia has faced numerous sudden crises due to its geographical location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, making it prone to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These events highlight the frequent occurrence of sudden crises in Indonesia and underscore the need for robust disaster preparedness and response systems. Effective crisis management requires a strategy that immediately informs organizations and the health sector of necessary actions. This study aims to investigate the effects of safety culture (SC), supportive environment (SE), management commitment (MC), and social media usage on internal crisis communication (ICC) during crises in Indonesia. It also compares the multiple regression models between employees in the private and public sectors. A cross-sectional questionnaire survey was conducted with 567 full-time employees from various organizations who have been directly affected by crises. The findings reveal that, for public sector employees, all antecedents negatively impact ICC except for SC and MC. In contrast, for private sector employees, all antecedents positively impact ICC except for MC and the perceived usefulness of social media. This study highlights the importance of MC, an SE, SC, and the perceived usefulness of social media in determining employees' ICC during crises. The significance of an SE and SC on employees' perceptions of ICC is similarly emphasized.","PeriodicalId":21472,"journal":{"name":"Risk Analysis","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.0,"publicationDate":"2025-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143664499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0