Nature Climate Change最新文献_第5页

A framework for ageing and health vulnerabilities in a changing climate 气候变化中的老龄化和健康脆弱性框架

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02156-2

Jenna F. Tipaldo, Deborah Balk, Lori M. Hunter

引用次数: 0

Author Correction: Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change 作者更正：将火灾 PM2.5 造成的人类死亡归因于气候变化

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02195-9

Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa

引用次数: 0

Extreme heat disproportionately exacerbates health issues by threatening fresh food supply 极端高温威胁新鲜食品供应，严重加剧健康问题

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02172-2

Yin Long, Yoshikuni Yoshida, Yuya Kajikawa

引用次数: 0

Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change 将火灾 PM2.5 造成的人类死亡归因于气候变化

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1

Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa

{"title":"Attributing human mortality from fire PM2.5 to climate change","authors":"Chae Yeon Park, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Shinichiro Fujimori, Thanapat Jansakoo, Chantelle Burton, Huilin Huang, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel, Eleanor Burke, Fang Li, Stijn Hantson, Junya Takakura, Dong Kun Lee, Tomoko Hasegawa","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02149-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change intensifies fire smoke, emitting hazardous air pollutants that impact human health. However, the global influence of climate change on fire-induced health impacts remains unquantified. Here we used three well-tested fire–vegetation models in combination with a chemical transport model and health risk assessment framework to attribute global human mortality from fire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions to climate change. Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change. The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature. Increasing relative humidity lowered fire mortality in other regions, such as South Asia. Our study highlights the role of climate change in fire mortality, aiding public health authorities in spatial targeting adaptation measures for sensitive fire-prone areas. The authors combine fire–vegetation models, a chemical transport model and a health risk model to link human mortality from fire emissions to climate change. They estimate that 12.8% of mortalities in 2010 were linked to climate change, with South America, Australia, Europe and boreal forests most impacted.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1193-1200"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change 全球烧毁面积越来越多地归因于气候变化

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w

Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel

{"title":"Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change","authors":"Chantelle Burton, Seppe Lampe, Douglas I. Kelley, Wim Thiery, Stijn Hantson, Nikos Christidis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Matthew Forrest, Eleanor Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Huilin Huang, Akihiko Ito, Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Gitta Lasslop, Wei Li, Lars Nieradzik, Fang Li, Yang Chen, James Randerson, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Matthias Mengel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w","url":null,"abstract":"Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems. Complex interactions between drivers have hampered efforts to understand observed changes in fire behaviour worldwide. Here fire model ensembles and impact attribution show that climate change increasingly explains changes in global burned area.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1186-1192"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142452001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness 全球青蛙暴露于日益干燥环境的风险

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z

Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong

{"title":"Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness","authors":"Nicholas C. Wu, Rafael Parelli Bovo, Urtzi Enriquez-Urzelai, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Michael R. Kearney, Carlos A. Navas, Jacinta D. Kong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z","url":null,"abstract":"Compared with the risks associated with climate warming and extremes, the risks of climate-induced drying to animal species remain understudied. This is particularly true for water-sensitive groups, such as anurans (frogs and toads), whose long-term survival must be considered in the context of both environmental changes and species sensitivity. Here, we mapped global areas where anurans will face increasing water limitations, analysed ecotype sensitivity to water loss and modelled behavioural activity impacts under future climate change scenarios. Predictions indicate that 6.6–33.6% of anuran habitats will become arid like by 2080–2100, with 15.4–36.1% exposed to worsening drought, under an intermediate- and high-emission scenario, respectively. Arid conditions are expected to double water loss rates, and combined drought and warming will double reductions in anuran activity compared with warming impacts alone by 2080–2100. These findings underscore the pervasive synergistic threat of warming and environmental drying to anurans. The authors consider the future risks of warming and drying to water-sensitive anuran species. They show that increased aridity of anuran habitats and drought exposure under climate change, combined with warming, can substantially reduce anuran activity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1314-1322"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142451821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate change is increasingly affecting fires worldwide 气候变化对全球火灾的影响日益严重

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02141-9

引用次数: 0

Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world 与世界各地气候行动和政策支持有关的气候正义理念

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y

Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton

{"title":"Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world","authors":"Charles A. Ogunbode, Rouven Doran, Arin H. Ayanian, Joonha Park, Akira Utsugi, Karlijn L. van den Broek, Jihane Ghorayeb, Sibele D. Aquino, Samuel Lins, John J. B. R. Aruta, Marc E. S. Reyes, Andreas Zick, Susan Clayton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate justice is increasingly prominent in climate change communication and advocacy but little is known about public understanding of the concept or how widely it resonates with different groups. In our global survey of 5,627 adults in 11 countries spanning the global north and south, most participants (66.2%) had never heard of climate justice. Nonetheless, endorsement of climate justice beliefs was widespread (for example, acknowledging the disproportionate impact of climate change on poor people and the underpinning roles of capitalism and colonialism in the climate crisis). Climate justice beliefs were also associated with various indices of climate action and policy support. These associations tended to be stronger in countries with high GHG emissions and where social inequality is also more politically salient. The results highlight the value of climate justice as a motive for climate action across diverse geographical contexts. Little is known about public understanding of climate justice, despite its increasing prominence in climate change communication. Here a global survey reveals that, although awareness of climate justice is low, beliefs in climate justice are widely supported across countries.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1144-1150"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02168-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142448356","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide 干旱和干旱影响世界各地的国内移徙

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1

Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco

{"title":"Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide","authors":"Roman Hoffmann, Guy Abel, Maurizio Malpede, Raya Muttarak, Marco Percoco","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1","url":null,"abstract":"While the effects of climatic changes on migration have received widespread public and scientific attention, comparative evidence for their influence on internal migration worldwide remains scarce. Here we use census-based data from 72 countries (1960–2016) to analyse 107,840 migration flows between subnational regions. We find that increased drought and aridity have a significant impact on internal migration, particularly in the hyper-arid and arid areas of Southern Europe, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East and South America. Migration patterns are shaped by the wealth, agricultural dependency and urbanization of both origin and destination areas with migration responses being stronger in rural and predominantly agricultural areas. While overall climatic effects on migration are stronger in richer countries, we observe higher out-migration from poorer towards wealthier regions within countries. Furthermore, age and education groups respond differently to climatic stress, highlighting distinct mobility patterns of population subgroups across different geographic contexts. Limited comparative evidence exists on the impacts of climatic factors on internal migration. Here, using a harmonized census-based dataset, the authors find that drought and aridity substantially increase internal migration, with considerable heterogeneity across regions, age groups and education levels.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1245-1253"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142436282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Microclimate regulates when autumn leaves fall 微气候调节秋叶飘落的时间

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02154-4

David H. Klinges

引用次数: 0