Nature Climate Change最新文献_第4页

Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 在2023年创纪录的海面温度下，海洋碳汇意外下降

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4

Jens Daniel Müller, Nicolas Gruber, Aline Schneuwly, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Marion Gehlen, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley

{"title":"Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023","authors":"Jens Daniel Müller, Nicolas Gruber, Aline Schneuwly, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Marion Gehlen, Luke Gregor, Judith Hauck, Peter Landschützer, Galen A. McKinley","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02380-4","url":null,"abstract":"In 2023, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reached record highs, partly due to a strong El Niño. Based on historical responses to elevated global mean SSTs, oceanic CO2 uptake in 2023 should have increased (−0.11 ± 0.04 PgC yr−1), driven by reduced outgassing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, using observation-based estimates of ocean CO2 fugacity, we show here that the global non-polar ocean absorbed about 10% less CO2 than expected (+0.17 ± 0.12 PgC yr−1). This weakening was caused by the anomalous outgassing of CO2 in the subtropical and subpolar regions, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, driven primarily by elevated SSTs reducing the solubility of CO2. In most regions, this SST-induced outgassing was mitigated by the depletion of dissolved inorganic carbon in the surface mixed layer. Such negative feedbacks caused an overall muted response of the ocean carbon sink to the record-high SSTs, but this resilience may not persist under long-term warming or more severe SST extremes. The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high sea surface temperatures (SSTs), primarily due to SST-driven outgassing of CO2 in the subtropics.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"978-985"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02380-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144928185","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The vulnerability of women and children in West Africa 西非妇女和儿童的脆弱性

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02415-w

Olalekan Moyosore Lalude

引用次数: 0

Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes 北北极湿地和湖泊目前和未来的甲烷排放

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y

McKenzie Kuhn, David Olefeldt, Kyle A. Arndt, David Bastviken, Lori Bruhwiler, Patrick Crill, Tonya DelSontro, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Guido Grosse, Mikael Hovemyr, Gustaf Hugelius, Sally MacIntyre, Avni Malhotra, A. David McGuire, Youmi Oh, Benjamin Poulter, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ruth K. Varner, Katey M. Walter Anthony, Jennifer D. Watts, Zhen Zhang

{"title":"Current and future methane emissions from boreal-Arctic wetlands and lakes","authors":"McKenzie Kuhn, David Olefeldt, Kyle A. Arndt, David Bastviken, Lori Bruhwiler, Patrick Crill, Tonya DelSontro, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Guido Grosse, Mikael Hovemyr, Gustaf Hugelius, Sally MacIntyre, Avni Malhotra, A. David McGuire, Youmi Oh, Benjamin Poulter, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Ruth K. Varner, Katey M. Walter Anthony, Jennifer D. Watts, Zhen Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02413-y","url":null,"abstract":"Methane emissions from the boreal-Arctic region are likely to increase due to warming and permafrost thaw, but the magnitude of increase is unconstrained. Here we show that distinguishing several wetland and lake classes improves our understanding of current and future methane emissions. Our estimate of net annual methane emission (1988–2019) was 34 (95% CI: 25–43) Tg CH4 yr−1, dominated by five wetland (26 Tg CH4 yr−1) and seven lake (5.7 Tg CH4 yr−1) classes. Our estimate was lower than previous estimates due to explicit characterization of low methane-emitting wetland and lake classes, for example, permafrost bogs, bogs, large lakes and glacial lakes. To reduce uncertainty further, improved wetland maps and further measurements of wetland winter emissions and lake ebullition are needed. Methane emissions were estimated to increase by ~31% under a moderate warming scenario (SSP2-4.5 by 2100), driven primarily by warming rather than permafrost thaw. How much methane will be emitted from the boreal-Arctic region under climate change is not well constrained. Here the authors show that accounting for distinct wetland and lake classes leads to lower estimates of current methane loss as some classes emit low amounts of methane.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"986-991"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144910764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Improving the IPCC–UNFCCC relationship for effective provision of policy-relevant science 改善ipcc与unfccc之间的关系，以有效提供与政策相关的科学

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02412-z

Svante Bodin, Örjan Gustafsson

引用次数: 0

Tropical deforestation is associated with considerable heat-related mortality 热带森林砍伐与大量与热有关的死亡率有关

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0

C. L. Reddington, C. Smith, E. W. Butt, J. C. A. Baker, B. F. A. Oliveira, E. I. Yamba, D. V. Spracklen

{"title":"Tropical deforestation is associated with considerable heat-related mortality","authors":"C. L. Reddington, C. Smith, E. W. Butt, J. C. A. Baker, B. F. A. Oliveira, E. I. Yamba, D. V. Spracklen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02411-0","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical deforestation induces local warming and is a potential human health risk, having been linked to elevated human heat stress and reduced safe outdoor working hours. Here we show deforestation-induced local warming is associated with 28,000 (95% confidence interval: 23,610–33,560) heat-related deaths per year using a pan-tropical assessment. Analysis of satellite data shows tropical deforestation during 2001–2020 exposed 345 million people to local warming with population-weighted daytime land surface warming of 0.27 °C. Estimated heat-related mortality rates are greatest in Southeast Asia (8–11 deaths for every 100,000 people living in deforested areas) followed by tropical regions of Africa and the Americas. In regions of forest loss, local warming from deforestation could account for over one third of total climate heat-related mortality, highlighting the important contribution of tropical deforestation to ongoing warming and heat-related health risks within the context of climate change. The authors assess the impacts of tropical deforestation and its subsequent local warming on human heat-related mortality. They estimate that deforestation-related warming (+0.27 °C) is associated with approximately 28,000 heat-related deaths per year.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"992-999"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02411-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144906013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Long-term impacts of heatwaves on accelerated ageing 热浪对加速衰老的长期影响

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w

Siyi Chen, Yufei Liu, Yuanyuan Yi, Yiling Zheng, Jun Yang, Tiantian Li, Ta-Chien Chan, Rui Duan, Shenjing He, Cui Guo

{"title":"Long-term impacts of heatwaves on accelerated ageing","authors":"Siyi Chen, Yufei Liu, Yuanyuan Yi, Yiling Zheng, Jun Yang, Tiantian Li, Ta-Chien Chan, Rui Duan, Shenjing He, Cui Guo","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02407-w","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and population ageing are both urgent global challenges. Yet the interaction between these, such as associations between long-term exposure to heatwaves and biological age acceleration (BAA), is unclear. Here we analysed data from 24,922 adults in a longitudinal cohort in Taiwan (2008–2022) and used linear mixed models to show heatwaves accelerate ageing. Heatwaves were defined using both relative and absolute thresholds. BAA was calculated as the difference between biological and chronological age. Each interquartile range increase in the cumulative exposure to heatwaves was associated with a 0.023- to 0.031-year increase in BAA. Moreover, the participants demonstrated gradual adaptation to heatwave impacts over the 15-year period. Furthermore, manual workers, rural residents and participants from communities with fewer air conditioners were more susceptible to the health impacts. This study highlights the need for targeted policies and interventions to strengthen adaptive capacity, delay ageing and promote healthy ageing. Ageing is linked to environmental factors. This study shows that although participants gradually adapted to heat over time, cumulative exposure to heatwaves had stable and adverse impacts on ageing, especially among manual workers, rural residents and those with limited air conditioning.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"1000-1007"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Hotter world speeds up ageing 更热的世界加速了老龄化

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02395-x

Paul J. Beggs

引用次数: 0

The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries 公众对全球七大南方国家气候政策的看法

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9

Richard T. Carson, Jiajun Lu, Emily A. Khossravi, Gunnar Köhlin, Erik Sterner, Thomas Sterner, Dale Whittington

{"title":"The public’s views on climate policies in seven large global south countries","authors":"Richard T. Carson, Jiajun Lu, Emily A. Khossravi, Gunnar Köhlin, Erik Sterner, Thomas Sterner, Dale Whittington","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02389-9","url":null,"abstract":"While public attitudes regarding climate change have been widely explored in the global north, survey work is still limited in the global south countries. Here we analysed survey data (n = 8,400) from Chile, Colombia, India, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Vietnam to understand climate knowledge, trusted information sources and policy preferences. Our results indicate that scientists stand out as the most trusted information source in all countries except Vietnam and trust in scientists correlates with increased climate knowledge. Respondents agree with the urgency of the climate change challenge, but prioritizing policies to mitigate climate change substantially declines when policy trade-offs are introduced. There is broad agreement for earmarking carbon tax revenue towards health and education, renewable energy subsidies and clean technology R&D, but little support for deficit reduction or uniform rebates. Climate surveys are common in the global north but remain limited in the global south. Through a large-scale survey in seven global south countries, this study examines public climate knowledge and identifies their most trusted information sources and preferred climate policies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"954-962"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02389-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Variations in climate change belief systems across 110 geographic areas 气候变化信念系统在110个地理区域的差异

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02410-1

Sanguk Lee, Hong Tien Vu, Jagadish Thaker, Marija Verner, Matthew H. Goldberg, Jennifer Carman, Seth A. Rosenthal, Anthony Leiserowitz

{"title":"Variations in climate change belief systems across 110 geographic areas","authors":"Sanguk Lee, Hong Tien Vu, Jagadish Thaker, Marija Verner, Matthew H. Goldberg, Jennifer Carman, Seth A. Rosenthal, Anthony Leiserowitz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02410-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02410-1","url":null,"abstract":"Climate beliefs shape engagement with climate action, yet research often overlooks their interconnections. This research frames climate beliefs as a belief system and examines two structural features: density (the strength of all connections) and inconsistency (conflicts between beliefs). Using Facebook survey data from 110 geographic areas (n = 99,074), we show that global north presents higher density networks, where climate beliefs are more tightly correlated, while many global south areas have positive but less interconnected beliefs. Inconsistency appears in geographic areas where opposition to reducing fossil fuel use conflicts with support for renewable energy and government prioritization of climate policies, such as in the Middle East. Information exposure is positively correlated with density and negatively with inconsistency. Gross domestic product per capita is positively associated with density and carbon resource dependence positively correlates with inconsistency. These findings offer communication strategies to enhance climate belief endurance while addressing conflicting beliefs that may undermine climate action. Climate beliefs do not exist in isolation but form an interconnected network known as a belief system. This study analyses the density and inconsistency of belief systems and their associations with informational and socioeconomic factors to inform effective climate change communication strategies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"947-953"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Plant nutrient acquisition under elevated CO2 and implications for the land carbon sink CO2升高下植物养分获取及其对土地碳汇的影响

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02386-y

Trevor W. Cambron, Joshua B. Fisher, Bruce A. Hungate, Benjamin D. Stocker, Trevor Keenan, Iain Colin Prentice, César Terrer

{"title":"Plant nutrient acquisition under elevated CO2 and implications for the land carbon sink","authors":"Trevor W. Cambron, Joshua B. Fisher, Bruce A. Hungate, Benjamin D. Stocker, Trevor Keenan, Iain Colin Prentice, César Terrer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02386-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02386-y","url":null,"abstract":"Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester around one-third of the anthropogenic carbon emitted each year, slowing the pace of climate change. However, the future of this sink under rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations remains uncertain, in part due to the impact that nutrient limitation may have on plant biomass. Here we review plant nutrient acquisition strategies and evidence of the enhanced utilization of these strategies under experimental and real-world elevated CO2. Many of the strategies that are key to alleviating nutrient limitation under elevated CO2 are not well represented in current Earth system models, and a simple data-driven analysis implies that models that do not account for nutrient acquisition strategies could underestimate the land sink. Elevated atmospheric CO2 has stimulated plant growth, yet the future land carbon sink may be constrained in part by nutrient availability. Here the authors review plant nutrient acquisition strategies and the need for better representation in models to improve predictions of land carbon uptake.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 9","pages":"935-946"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144898627","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0