Daijiang Li, Michael Belitz, Lindsay Campbell, Robert Guralnick
{"title":"Extreme weather events have strong but different impacts on plant and insect phenology","authors":"Daijiang Li, Michael Belitz, Lindsay Campbell, Robert Guralnick","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02248-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02248-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The ability to explain and predict phenology across space, time and taxa has largely relied on annual average and seasonal climatic variables, ignoring the potential role of extreme weather events (EWEs) in regulating phenology. Yet, EWEs, which are predicted to increase in their severity and frequency with climate change, are also probably strong proximal phenology cues. Here we leveraged expansive community science resources to determine how EWEs affect plant flowering and insect flight beginning, termination and duration for 581 angiosperm species and 172 Lepidoptera across the contiguous United States. Our results provide evidence that plant and insect phenology is highly responsive to EWEs after accounting for seasonal and annual average climatic variables. The impact of EWEs on phenology varies depending on climatic context, and plant and insect responsiveness, while often similar, can be in the opposite directions. This suggests that EWEs may be key drivers of multitrophic phenological mismatches.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"89 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143462206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Urbanization’s impact on soil carbon","authors":"Jess Davies","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02264-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02264-7","url":null,"abstract":"As urban extent continues to grow, the impact this major land-use change has on soils and their carbon stocks is an increasingly important question. A recent global study suggests that the effects are not straightforward.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143451672","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The role of cross- and interdisciplinary climate research centres","authors":"Atar Herziger, Kristin F. Hurst","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02249-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02249-6","url":null,"abstract":"Climate research centres provide valuable support to scholars wanting to engage with interdisciplinary research. Fully leveraging this support requires strategic individual efforts. We outline how scholars can achieve collaborative synergy at the intersection of top-down institutional support and bottom-up individual action.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143443483","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Atmospheric circulation to constrain subtropical precipitation projections","authors":"Rei Chemke, Janni Yuval","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02266-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02266-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately assessing future precipitation changes presents one of the greatest challenges of climate change. In the tropics, changes in the Hadley circulation are expected to considerably affect precipitation in dry subtropical and wet equatorial regions. However, while climate models project a robust weakening of the Northern Hemisphere circulation in the coming decades, currently, there is low confidence in the magnitude of such weakening and its impact on regional precipitation patterns. Here we use emergent constraint analyses and observation-based Hadley circulation strength changes to show that the projected circulation weakening will probably be larger than in current predictions. The more pronounced weakening of the flow results in a doubling of the subtropical precipitation increase compared with current forecasts, specifically over Asia, Africa and the Pacific Ocean. Our findings provide more accurate tropical circulation and precipitation projections and have considerable societal impacts, given the scarcity of water in subtropical regions.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143435077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Anna-Maria Virkkala, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Stefano Potter, Isabel Wargowsky, Edward A. G. Schuur, Craig R. See, Marguerite Mauritz, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Eleanor J. Burke, Arden Burrell, Namyi Chae, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frederic Chevallier, Torben R. Christensen, Roisin Commane, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Liang Feng, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Järvi Järveoja, Sergey V. Karsanaev, Hideki Kobayashi, Lars Kutzbach, Junjie Liu, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Efrén López-Blanco, Kyle Lunneberg, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Trofim C. Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Yosuke Niwa, Walter Oechel, Paul I. Palmer, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Wouter Peters, Roman Petrov, William Quinton, Christian Rödenbeck, Torsten Sachs, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, Susan M. Natali
{"title":"Author Correction: Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake","authors":"Anna-Maria Virkkala, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Stefano Potter, Isabel Wargowsky, Edward A. G. Schuur, Craig R. See, Marguerite Mauritz, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Eleanor J. Burke, Arden Burrell, Namyi Chae, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frederic Chevallier, Torben R. Christensen, Roisin Commane, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Liang Feng, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Järvi Järveoja, Sergey V. Karsanaev, Hideki Kobayashi, Lars Kutzbach, Junjie Liu, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Efrén López-Blanco, Kyle Lunneberg, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Trofim C. Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Yosuke Niwa, Walter Oechel, Paul I. Palmer, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Wouter Peters, Roman Petrov, William Quinton, Christian Rödenbeck, Torsten Sachs, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, Susan M. Natali","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02279-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02279-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Correction to: <i>Nature Climate Change</i> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5, published online 21 January 2025.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"136 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143427182","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Preserving carbon dioxide removal to serve critical needs","authors":"Drew Shindell, Joeri Rogelj","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02251-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02251-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is critical to most net-zero pathways, especially given challenges due to slow decarbonization, hard-to-abate (H2A) economic activities and non-CO<sub>2</sub> GHGs. However, land-based CDR, which is the most widely deployed currently and in future projections, requires extensive land and water. Here we examine least-cost 1.5 °C overshoot pathways, finding that 78 of 81 scenarios would require all available sustainable CDR to compensate for H2A emissions and overshoot. Use of CDR to compensate for emissions from easier-to-decarbonize sectors such as electricity would leave less available to compensate for H2A emissions, increasing system-wide costs of net zero or rendering such goals impossible. Such usage, however, is allowed in many jurisdictions and is widespread in voluntary markets. We suggest that rapidly transitioning CDR usage to exclusively compensate for H2A emissions and overshoot is required to prevent lower costs for near-term actors leading to larger long-term system-wide costs.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143417649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Carlos M. Duarte, Antonio Delgado-Huertas, Elisa Marti, Beat Gasser, Isidro San Martin, Alexandra Cousteau, Fritz Neumeyer, Megan Reilly-Cayten, Joshua Boyce, Tomohiro Kuwae, Masakazu Hori, Toshihiro Miyajima, Nichole N. Price, Suzanne Arnold, Aurora M. Ricart, Simon Davis, Noumie Surugau, Al-Jeria Abdul, Jiaping Wu, Xi Xiao, Ik Kyo Chung, Chang Geun Choi, Calvyn F. A. Sondak, Hatim Albasri, Dorte Krause-Jensen, Annette Bruhn, Teis Boderskov, Kasper Hancke, Jon Funderud, Ana R. Borrero-Santiago, Fred Pascal, Paul Joanne, Lanto Ranivoarivelo, William T. Collins, Jennifer Clark, Juan Fermin Gutierrez, Ricardo Riquelme, Marcela Avila, Peter I. Macreadie, Pere Masque
{"title":"Author Correction: Carbon burial in sediments below seaweed farms matches that of Blue Carbon habitats","authors":"Carlos M. Duarte, Antonio Delgado-Huertas, Elisa Marti, Beat Gasser, Isidro San Martin, Alexandra Cousteau, Fritz Neumeyer, Megan Reilly-Cayten, Joshua Boyce, Tomohiro Kuwae, Masakazu Hori, Toshihiro Miyajima, Nichole N. Price, Suzanne Arnold, Aurora M. Ricart, Simon Davis, Noumie Surugau, Al-Jeria Abdul, Jiaping Wu, Xi Xiao, Ik Kyo Chung, Chang Geun Choi, Calvyn F. A. Sondak, Hatim Albasri, Dorte Krause-Jensen, Annette Bruhn, Teis Boderskov, Kasper Hancke, Jon Funderud, Ana R. Borrero-Santiago, Fred Pascal, Paul Joanne, Lanto Ranivoarivelo, William T. Collins, Jennifer Clark, Juan Fermin Gutierrez, Ricardo Riquelme, Marcela Avila, Peter I. Macreadie, Pere Masque","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02278-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02278-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Correction to: <i>Nature Climate Change</i> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02238-1, published online 17 January 2025.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143417670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Shujun Li, Lixin Wu, Yiting Wang, Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Zhao Jing, Yun Yang
{"title":"Intensified Atlantic multidecadal variability in a warming climate","authors":"Shujun Li, Lixin Wu, Yiting Wang, Tao Geng, Wenju Cai, Bolan Gan, Zhao Jing, Yun Yang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02252-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02252-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is a basin-scale mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multicentury-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea-ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favouring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and the associated northward heat transport prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Surface ocean losing resilience to thermal stress","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02263-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02263-8","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite observations suggest a slowdown in the decay of sea surface temperature anomalies over the past four decades, coinciding with an increase in the duration of marine heatwaves. This change is probably linked to factors such as stronger upper-ocean stratification, a deepening mixed layer and weakening oceanic forcing.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143401274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Twelve months at 1.5 °C signals earlier than expected breach of Paris Agreement threshold","authors":"Alex J. Cannon","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02247-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>June 2024 was the twelfth month in a row with global mean surface temperatures at least 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions, but it is not clear if this implies a failure to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting long-term warming below this threshold. Here we show that in climate model simulations, the long-term Paris Agreement target is usually crossed well before such a string of unusually warm temperatures occurs.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"26 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143384993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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