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Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal 从净零目标到《巴黎协定》目标的有希望的气候进展
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y
Isabela S. Tagomori, Fabio A. Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren
{"title":"Promising climate progress from net-zero ambitions to the Paris Agreement goal","authors":"Isabela S. Tagomori, Fabio A. Diuana, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Laurent Drouet, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Oliver Fricko, Elena Hooijschuur, Gokul Iyer, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Yang Ou, Lara Aleluia Reis, Oliver Richters, Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Zoi Vrontisi, Matthias Weitzel, Matthew Zwerling, Bas van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02615-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate targets require strong commitments from countries to be achieved. Using a multi-model analysis, we show that current net-zero pledges bring the world closer to a well-below 2 °C pathway, but an emission gap remains. Increasing ambition will be crucial: expanding the global coverage of net-zero pledges and speeding up action increases consistency with the Paris Agreement (1.5–2.0 °C range in model mean). However, reaching the 1.5 °C goal without overshoot seems increasingly unlikely. While net-zero pledges help reduce carbon-intensive energy sources, domestic policies aligned with strong climate commitments are needed to reduce the reliance on fossil fuels and increase renewable energy capacity. Our scenarios show that emission reductions are driven by gains in energy efficiency, a strong phase-down of coal use and the electrification of sectors such as transport and heavy industry.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147734065","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Ocean warming weakens the sea–land breeze in coastal megacities 海洋变暖削弱了沿海大城市的海陆风
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02618-9
Yunting Xiao, Yaxin Liu, Yu Nie, Yongjie Fang, Hao Liu, Yan Dou, Jianbo Yang, Cong-Qiang Liu, Pingqing Fu, Jialei Zhu
{"title":"Ocean warming weakens the sea–land breeze in coastal megacities","authors":"Yunting Xiao, Yaxin Liu, Yu Nie, Yongjie Fang, Hao Liu, Yan Dou, Jianbo Yang, Cong-Qiang Liu, Pingqing Fu, Jialei Zhu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02618-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02618-9","url":null,"abstract":"The sea–land breeze (SLB), driven by thermal contrasts between sea and land, forms a key circulation system in coastal cities which mitigates urban heat islands, improves air quality and supports urban liveability. Yet its response to rising sea-surface temperatures (SST) under global warming remains unclear. Here we simulate SLB evolution across 18 major coastal megacities under varying SST. The results show that historical SST increases have reduced SLB days by 3–45% in 67% of these cities, with mid-latitude cities experiencing the largest declines (29–45%) as a result of a more than 5% reduction in diurnal sea–land thermal contrast. A further 0.52 °C (~2%) SST increase relative to historical levels induces a 4.5-fold reduction in SLB days in high-impact regions and heightened sensitivity in moderate-impact regions under high-emission scenarios. This erosion of SLB days, primarily driven by ocean warming, poses a critical yet overlooked threat to coastal liveability.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147709330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
More eddying of subtropical western boundary currents boosts stratification and cools shelf seas 副热带西部边界流的更多涡旋促进了分层，使大陆架海域变冷
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02599-9
K. L. Gunn, L. M. Beal
{"title":"More eddying of subtropical western boundary currents boosts stratification and cools shelf seas","authors":"K. L. Gunn, L. M. Beal","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02599-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02599-9","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean eddies are intensifying with climate change, especially in western boundary currents. Boundary currents separate coastal seas from the open ocean, but eddies drive cross-slope fluxes that can adjust the current and change shelf-sea conditions. Here we analyse two years of mooring observations in the Agulhas Current, diagnosing eddy dynamics and fluxes. We find that eddies converge heat and salt towards the current core over time, cooling adjacent shelf seas while broadening and stratifying the current. On the inshore edge, frequent 10-km frontal instabilities dominate, pumping cold, nutrient-rich waters up onto the shelf, while farther offshore 100-km meanders move heat onshore. The result is accelerated warming at the surface, but cooling at depth. Similar tendencies are expected in all subtropical western boundary currents as eddying increases, implying that adjacent shelf and slope seas will bear more extremes in the future, even while the strength of these currents may hold steady.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147685144","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Atlantic exceptionalism in the twentieth century 二十世纪的大西洋例外论
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02608-x
Gerard D. McCarthy, Hans-Otto Pörtner
{"title":"Atlantic exceptionalism in the twentieth century","authors":"Gerard D. McCarthy, Hans-Otto Pörtner","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02608-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02608-x","url":null,"abstract":"The North Atlantic is exceptional in cooling during the twentieth century while the world warmed. Here we look back on an influential 2015 study that linked this cooling to a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and consider the wider implications that this may have for climate, ecosystems and society.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 4","pages":"391-392"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643252","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Early-career researchers reflect on influential papers 初出茅庐的研究人员反思有影响力的论文
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02605-0
Leif Fredericks, Julia K. Green, Sara H. Knox, Jingwen Liu, Theo Spira, Robert P. Streit, Dan Tong
{"title":"Early-career researchers reflect on influential papers","authors":"Leif Fredericks, Julia K. Green, Sara H. Knox, Jingwen Liu, Theo Spira, Robert P. Streit, Dan Tong","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02605-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02605-0","url":null,"abstract":"As Nature Climate Change celebrates its 15 year anniversary, we look back at some of the journal’s published works. In this Viewpoint, seven early-career researchers discuss how these papers influenced their research and careers.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 4","pages":"384-388"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02605-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643251","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Research that captures a changing world 研究捕捉到不断变化的世界
IF 27.1 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02623-y
{"title":"Research that captures a changing world","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02623-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02623-y","url":null,"abstract":"This month marks 15 years since the first publication of Nature Climate Change. Here, we reflect on how both the world and research have changed, and discuss the impacts of memorable climate change science published in our pages.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 4","pages":"373-373"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02623-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147643256","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The underappreciated importance of small wetlands in global methane emissions 小湿地在全球甲烷排放中的重要性未被充分认识
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02609-w
Fa Li, Qing Zhu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Xiao Zhang, Jida Wang, Sara H. Knox, Hangkai You, Min Chen, Mengze Li, Rafael Stern, Alison M. Hoyt, Gavin McNicol, William J. Riley, Shushi Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Avni Malhotra, Sarah Cooley, Zhen Zhang, Songbai Hong, Zichong Chen, Zhe Zhu, Peter A. Raymond, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson
{"title":"The underappreciated importance of small wetlands in global methane emissions","authors":"Fa Li, Qing Zhu, Kunxiaojia Yuan, Etienne Fluet-Chouinard, Xiao Zhang, Jida Wang, Sara H. Knox, Hangkai You, Min Chen, Mengze Li, Rafael Stern, Alison M. Hoyt, Gavin McNicol, William J. Riley, Shushi Peng, Benjamin Poulter, Avni Malhotra, Sarah Cooley, Zhen Zhang, Songbai Hong, Zichong Chen, Zhe Zhu, Peter A. Raymond, Philippe Ciais, Robert B. Jackson","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02609-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02609-w","url":null,"abstract":"Small wetlands remain underappreciated emission sources in the global methane budget. Using 30-m remote sensing data, we identify 160 million small wetlands (0.001–1 km²) in non-forested regions worldwide, contributing 24% of the total wetland methane emissions. Notably, methane emissions from small wetlands increased significantly over 2003–2022, with very small wetlands (<0.1 km2) dominating the magnitude and growth of small-wetland emissions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147630940","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
From least-cost to SDG-optimal sectoral allocation of Paris Agreement-compatible mitigation efforts 从成本最低到可持续发展目标最优部门分配符合《巴黎协定》的缓解努力
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-07 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3
Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Théo Rouhette, Russell Horowitz, Jon Sampedro, Alexandros Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Xin Zhao, Abhishek Chaudhary, Gokul Iyer, Jorge Moreno, Konstantinos Koasidis
{"title":"From least-cost to SDG-optimal sectoral allocation of Paris Agreement-compatible mitigation efforts","authors":"Dirk-Jan Van de Ven, Clàudia Rodés-Bachs, Théo Rouhette, Russell Horowitz, Jon Sampedro, Alexandros Nikas, Natasha Frilingou, Xin Zhao, Abhishek Chaudhary, Gokul Iyer, Jorge Moreno, Konstantinos Koasidis","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02602-3","url":null,"abstract":"Limiting global warming to well below 2 °C necessitates profound decarbonization, but how to distribute mitigation efforts over sectors remains a widely debated issue. Although integrated assessment models traditionally rely on ‘least-cost’ optimization to answer this question, the resulting sectoral allocations vary widely and ignore impacts on other potential policy objectives. Here we connect an integrated assessment models with a portfolio analysis to evaluate how sector-specific mitigation actions impact key indicators from Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to poverty, health, water, economy and land, and to identify Pareto-optimal and Paris-compliant mitigation portfolios that reveal the trade-offs between other sustainable development priorities. Furthermore, we define ‘SDG-balanced’ portfolios that, in most cases, outperform standard least-cost scenarios across all five SDG indicators for an equivalent carbon budget. Our findings demonstrate that the simultaneous evaluation of a broader set of policy priorities is crucial to provide truly policy-relevant guidance for the climate transition.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147630938","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Wildfire risk for species under climate change 气候变化下物种的野火风险
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-06 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02600-5
Xiaoye Yang, Mark C. Urban, Bo Su, Ziqian Zhong, Chao Wu, Deliang Chen
{"title":"Wildfire risk for species under climate change","authors":"Xiaoye Yang, Mark C. Urban, Bo Su, Ziqian Zhong, Chao Wu, Deliang Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02600-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02600-5","url":null,"abstract":"Wildfires are emerging as a major driver of biodiversity loss, yet their long-term implications for species under climate change remain poorly quantified. Here we show that future wildfire exposure will substantially increase for 9,592 non-marine species identified as threatened by increased fire frequency and/or intensity. Under shared socioeconomic pathway 2-4.5, global burned area is projected to increase by 9.3%, with 83.9% of wildfire-vulnerable species exposed to higher risk and ~40% of South American species experiencing >50% increases. High-latitude regions exhibit the fastest intensification, with fire season duration more than doubling. Species with small ranges and elevated conservation concern—particularly in South America, Australia and South Asia—dominate the top 1% most affected taxa. In contrast, up to 41.8% of African species experience reduced exposure, revealing marked spatial asymmetry in future risk. Our results demonstrate that climate-driven shifts in wildfire exposure are highly uneven across regions and taxa, underscoring the need for targeted, region-specific conservation strategies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"111 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147619775","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
15 years of change 15年的变革
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-04-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02610-3
{"title":"15 years of change","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02610-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02610-3","url":null,"abstract":"Since <italic>Nature Climate Change</italic> was launched, not only has the journal itself changed but so have the subjects of the studies we publish on the Earth system and how societies interact with it. In this Infographic, we highlight a few examples of how the world differed when we started in 2011 compared with today.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2026-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147702399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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