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Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change 气候变化导致复合热浪造成的特定原因死亡风险和负担上升
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5
Jiangdong Liu, Jinlei Qi, Peng Yin, Wei Liu, Cheng He, Ya Gao, Lu Zhou, Yixiang Zhu, Haidong Kan, Renjie Chen, Maigeng Zhou
{"title":"Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change","authors":"Jiangdong Liu, Jinlei Qi, Peng Yin, Wei Liu, Cheng He, Ya Gao, Lu Zhou, Yixiang Zhu, Haidong Kan, Renjie Chen, Maigeng Zhou","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02137-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global warming shifts daytime-only heatwaves to nighttime-only and day–night compound heatwaves. However, evidence on the cause-specific burdens of these heatwaves in a changing climate and ageing population is limited. Here, by analysing 1,088,742 non-accidental deaths from 272 Chinese cities, we found that compound heatwaves posed significantly higher cardiopulmonary mortality risks and burdens than daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, particularly for ischaemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and regions with high summer temperature variation. Projections suggested substantial increases in compound heatwave-related mortality (4.0–7.6-fold) by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, outpacing nighttime-only heatwaves (0.7–1.9-fold) and contrasting with decreasing daytime heatwave-related mortality (0.3–0.8-fold). A strict emission control scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1-1.9) may reverse most heatwave-related mortality increases. The confluence of global warming and ageing amplifies heatwave-related burdens, outstripping the sum of their individual impacts. Our findings underscore the importance of addressing compound heatwaves amid global warming.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142235153","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disproportionate impact of atmospheric heat events on lake surface water temperature increases 大气热事件对湖泊表层水温上升的影响不成比例
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02122-y
Xiwen Wang, Kun Shi, Boqiang Qin, Yunlin Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway
{"title":"Disproportionate impact of atmospheric heat events on lake surface water temperature increases","authors":"Xiwen Wang, Kun Shi, Boqiang Qin, Yunlin Zhang, R. Iestyn Woolway","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02122-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02122-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Hot temperature extremes (HTEs) in the atmosphere can also affect lake surface water temperature, but how this impact changes with global warming is not well understood. Here we use numerical modelling and satellite observations to quantify the contribution of HTEs to variations in summer lake surface water temperature and lake heatwaves in 1,260 water bodies worldwide between 1979 and 2022. Over this time period, HTE duration and cumulative intensity over the studied lakes increased significantly, at average rates of 1.4 days per decade and 0.92 °C days per decade, respectively. Despite only accounting for 7% of the total summer days, HTEs are responsible for 24% of lake surface summer warming trends, with the most pronounced effect observed in Europe at 27%. Moreover, HTEs are key drivers of both the duration and cumulative intensity of lake heatwaves. Our findings underscore the pivotal role played by short-term climatic extreme events in shaping long-term lake surface water temperature dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142235152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Acceleration of Drosophila subobscura evolutionary response to global warming in Europe 欧洲亚种果蝇对全球变暖的进化反应加快
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02128-6
Francisco Rodríguez-Trelles, Rosa Tarrío
{"title":"Acceleration of Drosophila subobscura evolutionary response to global warming in Europe","authors":"Francisco Rodríguez-Trelles, Rosa Tarrío","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02128-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02128-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The increasing risk of irreversible ecological transformation under global warming has boosted the need to understand the capacity of organisms to adapt to this change. Here, using a resurvey method of populations of the European fly <i>Drosophila subobscura</i>, we show that a known evolutionary response to global warming has accelerated in the past 20 years, in step with regional warming. This genetic response has come entirely by resorting pre-existing variation—and not from novel inversions—for tolerance to high temperature. Temperate populations are predicted to converge to the typical Mediterranean chromosomal composition by the mid-2050s, at which point this classic example of steep genetic cline will have vanished. Our results suggest that species with broad geographic ranges, large population sizes and high genetic diversity may have the evolutionary potential to cope with climate change.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142175026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species 渔业跟踪海洋物种未来的重新分布情况
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02127-7
Leonardo Cruz, Maria Pennino, Priscila Lopes
{"title":"Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species","authors":"Leonardo Cruz, Maria Pennino, Priscila Lopes","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02127-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02127-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The redistribution of fish stocks induced by climate change is expected to have global implications for fisheries, particularly the poleward shifts of species. However, the responses of different fishing gears and fleet of countries and their potential attempts to spatially redistribute catches remain unknown. Here, by developing environmental niche models for industrial fisheries of 82 countries and 13 fishing gears, we demonstrate that without management, global fleets are expected to shift poleward by the end of the century. This is driven by polar fishing gears moving to higher Arctic areas and tropical fishing gears expanding both within the tropics and poleward. Most nations, particularly tropical ones, may struggle to track these shifts, as they largely rely on coastal and nearshore fishing gears, such as trawlers. Our findings highlight the need to consider future shifts of fisheries in their management, to ensure the long-term sustainability and accessibility of fish stocks.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Underestimation of personal carbon footprint inequality in four diverse countries 低估四个不同国家的个人碳足迹不平等现象
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02130-y
Kristian S. Nielsen, Jan M. Bauer, Ramit Debnath, Charles A. Emogor, Sonja M. Geiger, Sakshi Ghai, Wencke Gwozdz, Ulf J. J. Hahnel
{"title":"Underestimation of personal carbon footprint inequality in four diverse countries","authors":"Kristian S. Nielsen, Jan M. Bauer, Ramit Debnath, Charles A. Emogor, Sonja M. Geiger, Sakshi Ghai, Wencke Gwozdz, Ulf J. J. Hahnel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02130-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02130-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extensive research highlights global and within-country inequality in personal carbon footprints. However, the extent to which people are aware of these inequalities remains unclear. Here we use an online survey distributed across four diverse countries: Denmark, India, Nigeria and the USA, to show widespread underestimation of carbon footprint inequality, irrespective of participants’ country and income segment. Of the 4,003 participants, within each country, 50% of participants were sampled from the top 10% income group. Our results show links between carbon footprint inequality perceptions and climate policy support, but with significant variations observed across the four countries and with participants’ income segments. Furthermore, there are links to the perceived fairness of actual carbon footprint inequality, highlighting the need to raise awareness about carbon footprint inequality and further unpack its implications for climate justice and policy.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A focus group study of ethical issues during climate-informed health decision-making 关于根据气候做出健康决策过程中的伦理问题的焦点小组研究
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02121-z
Andrew Hantel, Emily Senay, Cristina Richie, Anna Revette, Brett Nava-Coulter, Fay J. Hlubocky, Thomas P. Walsh, Mark Siegler, Gregory A. Abel
{"title":"A focus group study of ethical issues during climate-informed health decision-making","authors":"Andrew Hantel, Emily Senay, Cristina Richie, Anna Revette, Brett Nava-Coulter, Fay J. Hlubocky, Thomas P. Walsh, Mark Siegler, Gregory A. Abel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02121-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02121-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Healthcare delivery contributes to carbon emissions, exacerbating climate change and its associated health impacts. There is limited understanding of stakeholder views regarding ethical issues at the intersection of health choices and environmental impact. Here we performed a qualitative study involving seven focus groups with 46 participants who were patients and physicians in the northeastern US health systems. Both patients and physicians were amenable to health decisions that are beneficial for the environment and health. A consumptive healthcare system impeded both groups’ assumption of health-related climate responsibilities. Physicians, however, underestimated patients’ interest in discussing the environmental impacts of health decisions. Patients expressed tension between a personal interest in limiting climate change through health choices and ensuring others were also accountable; they were also concerned that physician paternalism might impede climate-informed health conversations. These findings outline barriers to climate-informed healthcare and begin to establish how they can be addressed.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Global patterns and drivers of tropical aboveground carbon changes 热带地上碳变化的全球模式和驱动因素
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02115-x
Yu Feng, Philippe Ciais, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Yidi Xu, Alan D. Ziegler, Dave van Wees, Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Dominick V. Spracklen, Stephen Sitch, Martin Brandt, Wei Li, Lei Fan, Xiaojun Li, Jie Wu, Zhenzhong Zeng
{"title":"Global patterns and drivers of tropical aboveground carbon changes","authors":"Yu Feng, Philippe Ciais, Jean-Pierre Wigneron, Yidi Xu, Alan D. Ziegler, Dave van Wees, Arthur Nicolaus Fendrich, Dominick V. Spracklen, Stephen Sitch, Martin Brandt, Wei Li, Lei Fan, Xiaojun Li, Jie Wu, Zhenzhong Zeng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02115-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02115-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Tropical terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in modulating the global carbon balance. However, the complex dynamics and factors controlling tropical aboveground live biomass carbon (AGC) are not fully understood. Here, using remotely sensed observations, we find a moderate net AGC sink of 0.21 ± 0.06 PgC yr<sup>−1</sup> throughout the global tropics from 2010 to 2020. This arises from a gross loss of −1.79 PgC yr<sup>−1</sup> offset by a marked gain of 2.01 ± 0.06 PgC yr<sup>−1</sup>. Fire emissions in non-forested African shrubland/savanna biomes, coupled with post-fire carbon recovery, substantially dominated the interannual variability of tropical AGC. Fire radiative power was identified as the primary determinant of the spatial variability in AGC gains, with soil moisture also playing a crucial role in shaping trends. We highlight the dominant roles of anthropogenic and hydroclimatic determinants in orchestrating tropical land carbon dynamics and advocate for land management to conserve indispensable ecosystem services worldwide.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy from buildings is key to a warming climate 建筑能源是气候变暖的关键
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02131-x
Jore E. González-Cruz
{"title":"Energy from buildings is key to a warming climate","authors":"Jore E. González-Cruz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02131-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02131-x","url":null,"abstract":"The energy used to heat or cool buildings does not only contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, but also to other direct forms of heat exchange between buildings and their environment. A study now quantifies the feedback between buildings and their surrounding temperatures, yielding more reliable estimates of the contribution of heating and cooling to local and global warming and better estimates of regional energy demands.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142171039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks 气候驱动的生物物理反馈导致城市能源风险上升
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02108-w
Xinchang ‘Cathy’ Li, Lei Zhao, Yue Qin, Keith Oleson, Yiwen Zhang
{"title":"Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks","authors":"Xinchang ‘Cathy’ Li, Lei Zhao, Yue Qin, Keith Oleson, Yiwen Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02108-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02108-w","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate-driven impacts on future urban heating and cooling (H&amp;C) energy demand are critical to sustainable energy planning. Existing global H&amp;C projections are predominantly made without accounting for future two-way biophysical feedbacks between urban climate and H&amp;C use. Here, using a hybrid modelling framework we show that the prevalent degree-days methods misrepresent the magnitude, nonlinearity and uncertainty in the climate-driven projections of H&amp;C energy demand changes due to the missing two-way feedbacks. We find a 220% increase (47% decrease) in cooling (heating) energy demand with amplified uncertainty by 2099 under a very high emission scenario, roughly twice that projected by previous methods. The spatially diverse H&amp;C demand responses to the warming climates highlight the disparate challenges faced by individual cities and necessitate urban energy planning accounting for local climate–energy interactions. Our study underscores the critical necessity of explicit and dynamic modelling of urban H&amp;C energy use for climate-sensitive energy planning.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142170524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Biomethane produced from maize grown on peat emits more CO2 than natural gas 用泥炭上种植的玉米生产的生物甲烷比天然气排放更多的二氧化碳
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02111-1
Chris D. Evans, Rebecca L. Rowe, Benjamin W. J. Freeman, Jennifer M. Rhymes, Alex Cumming, Isobel L. Lloyd, Daniel Morton, Jennifer L. Williamson, Ross Morrison
{"title":"Biomethane produced from maize grown on peat emits more CO2 than natural gas","authors":"Chris D. Evans, Rebecca L. Rowe, Benjamin W. J. Freeman, Jennifer M. Rhymes, Alex Cumming, Isobel L. Lloyd, Daniel Morton, Jennifer L. Williamson, Ross Morrison","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02111-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02111-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cultivation of maize for biomethane production has expanded rapidly, including on drained peat soils. The resulting soil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions at the point of feedstock production are largely overlooked when assessing biogas climate mitigation potential. On the basis of field-scale flux measurements, we calculate that soil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions from biomethane feedstock production on drained peat exceed embodied emissions for an equivalent amount of natural gas by up to a factor of three.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142160525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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