Nature Climate Change最新文献

When fire and ice meet 当冰与火相遇

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02183-z

Patricia DeRepentigny

引用次数: 0

‘Arctic Niño’ might emerge in an ice-free world 无冰世界可能出现 "北极尼诺现象

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02175-z

引用次数: 0

Impact of climate change on vaccine responses and inequity 气候变化对疫苗接种反应和不公平的影响

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02192-y

Kai Zhang, Yifang Dang, Yiming Li, Cui Tao, Junguk Hur, Yongqun He

引用次数: 0

wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change 替换具有登革热能力的蚊子对近期变化是强有力的。

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-08-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w

Váleri N. Vásquez, Lara M. Kueppers, Gordana Rašić, John M. Marshall

{"title":"wMel replacement of dengue-competent mosquitoes is robust to near-term climate change","authors":"Váleri N. Vásquez, Lara M. Kueppers, Gordana Rašić, John M. Marshall","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w","url":null,"abstract":"Rising temperatures are impacting the range and prevalence of mosquito-borne diseases. A promising biocontrol technology replaces wild mosquitoes with those carrying the virus-blocking Wolbachia bacterium. Because the most widely used strain, wMel, is adversely affected by heat stress, we examined how global warming may influence wMel-based replacement. We simulated interventions in two locations with successful field trials using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections and historical temperature records, integrating empirical data on wMel’s thermal sensitivity into a model of Aedes aegypti population dynamics to evaluate introgression and persistence over one year. We show that in Cairns, Australia, climatic futures necessitate operational adaptations for heatwaves exceeding two weeks. In Nha Trang, Vietnam, projected heatwaves of three weeks and longer eliminate wMel under the most stringent assumptions of that symbiont’s thermal limits. We conclude that this technology is generally robust to near-term (2030s) climate change. Accelerated warming may challenge this in the 2050s and beyond. The biocontrol technology (wMel) used to mitigate mosquito-borne viruses is adversely affected by heat stress. The authors integrate empirical data on mosquito population dynamics and wMel thermal sensitivity to show that the technology is generally robust to near-term climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 8","pages":"848-855"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10403361/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10059928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 1

Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations 气候变化和营养波动对湖泊生态网络的破坏

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-03-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01615-6

Ewa Merz, Erik Saberski, Luis J. Gilarranz, Peter D. F. Isles, George Sugihara, Christine Berger, Francesco Pomati

{"title":"Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations","authors":"Ewa Merz, Erik Saberski, Luis J. Gilarranz, Peter D. F. Isles, George Sugihara, Christine Berger, Francesco Pomati","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01615-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01615-6","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change interacts with local processes to threaten biodiversity by disrupting the complex network of ecological interactions. While changes in network interactions drastically affect ecosystems, how ecological networks respond to climate change, in particular warming and nutrient supply fluctuations, is largely unknown. Here, using an equation-free modelling approach on monthly plankton community data in ten Swiss lakes, we show that the number and strength of plankton community interactions fluctuate and respond nonlinearly to water temperature and phosphorus. While lakes show system-specific responses, warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate levels. This network reorganization shifts trophic control of food webs, leading to consumers being controlled by resources. Small grazers and cyanobacteria emerge as sensitive indicators of changes in plankton networks. By exposing the outcomes of a complex interplay between environmental drivers, our results provide tools for studying and advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts entire ecological communities. The authors investigate the impact of warming and nutrient supply on entire ecological networks within ten Swiss lakes. Warming generally reduces network interactions, particularly under high phosphate, leading to shifts in trophic control of food webs.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 4","pages":"389-396"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10079529/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9652637","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 3

Increasing the number of stressors reduces soil ecosystem services worldwide 压力源数量的增加减少了全球土壤生态系统的服务。

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2023-03-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-023-01627-2

Matthias C. Rillig, Marcel G. A. van der Heijden, Miguel Berdugo, Yu-Rong Liu, Judith Riedo, Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, Eduardo Moreno-Jiménez, Ferran Romero, Leho Tedersoo, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo

{"title":"Increasing the number of stressors reduces soil ecosystem services worldwide","authors":"Matthias C. Rillig, Marcel G. A. van der Heijden, Miguel Berdugo, Yu-Rong Liu, Judith Riedo, Carlos Sanz-Lazaro, Eduardo Moreno-Jiménez, Ferran Romero, Leho Tedersoo, Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo","doi":"10.1038/s41558-023-01627-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-023-01627-2","url":null,"abstract":"Increasing the number of environmental stressors could decrease ecosystem functioning in soils. Yet this relationship has not been globally assessed outside laboratory experiments. Here, using two independent global standardized field surveys, and a range of natural and human factors, we test the relationship between the number of environmental stressors exceeding different critical thresholds and the maintenance of multiple ecosystem services across biomes. Our analysis shows that having multiple stressors, from medium levels (>50%), negatively and significantly correlates with impacts on ecosystem services and that having multiple stressors crossing a high-level critical threshold (over 75% of maximum observed levels) reduces soil biodiversity and functioning globally. The number of environmental stressors exceeding the >75% threshold was consistently seen as an important predictor of multiple ecosystem services, therefore improving prediction of ecosystem functioning. Our findings highlight the need to reduce the dimensionality of the human footprint on ecosystems to conserve biodiversity and function. The authors investigate relationships between various soil stressors that exceed critical thresholds and the maintenance of ecosystem services. They show that multiple stressors crossing a high-level threshold reduces soil functioning and can be consistently used to predict ecosystem functioning.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 5","pages":"478-483"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7614524/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10266572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 8

Nation-wide mapping of tree-level aboveground carbon stocks in Rwanda 绘制卢旺达全国范围的树木地上碳储量图

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2022-12-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01544-w

Maurice Mugabowindekwe, Martin Brandt, Jérôme Chave, Florian Reiner, David L. Skole, Ankit Kariryaa, Christian Igel, Pierre Hiernaux, Philippe Ciais, Ole Mertz, Xiaoye Tong, Sizhuo Li, Gaspard Rwanyiziri, Thaulin Dushimiyimana, Alain Ndoli, Valens Uwizeyimana, Jens-Peter Barnekow Lillesø, Fabian Gieseke, Compton J. Tucker, Sassan Saatchi, Rasmus Fensholt

{"title":"Nation-wide mapping of tree-level aboveground carbon stocks in Rwanda","authors":"Maurice Mugabowindekwe, Martin Brandt, Jérôme Chave, Florian Reiner, David L. Skole, Ankit Kariryaa, Christian Igel, Pierre Hiernaux, Philippe Ciais, Ole Mertz, Xiaoye Tong, Sizhuo Li, Gaspard Rwanyiziri, Thaulin Dushimiyimana, Alain Ndoli, Valens Uwizeyimana, Jens-Peter Barnekow Lillesø, Fabian Gieseke, Compton J. Tucker, Sassan Saatchi, Rasmus Fensholt","doi":"10.1038/s41558-022-01544-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-022-01544-w","url":null,"abstract":"Trees sustain livelihoods and mitigate climate change but a predominance of trees outside forests and limited resources make it difficult for many tropical countries to conduct automated nation-wide inventories. Here, we propose an approach to map the carbon stock of each individual overstory tree at the national scale of Rwanda using aerial imagery from 2008 and deep learning. We show that 72% of the mapped trees are located in farmlands and savannas and 17% in plantations, accounting for 48.6% of the national aboveground carbon stocks. Natural forests cover 11% of the total tree count and 51.4% of the national carbon stocks, with an overall carbon stock uncertainty of 16.9%. The mapping of all trees allows partitioning to any landscapes classification and is urgently needed for effective planning and monitoring of restoration activities as well as for optimization of carbon sequestration, biodiversity and economic benefits of trees. The authors conduct a national inventory on individual tree carbon stocks in Rwanda using aerial imagery and deep learning. Most mapped trees are located in farmlands; new methods allow partitioning to any landscape categories, effective planning and optimization of carbon sequestration and the economic benefits of trees.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"13 1","pages":"91-97"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2022-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9845119/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10635589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 15

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change 一半以上的已知人类致病疾病会因气候变化而恶化

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1

Camilo Mora, Tristan McKenzie, Isabella M. Gaw, Jacqueline M. Dean, Hannah von Hammerstein, Tabatha A. Knudson, Renee O. Setter, Charlotte Z. Smith, Kira M. Webster, Jonathan A. Patz, Erik C. Franklin

{"title":"Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change","authors":"Camilo Mora, Tristan McKenzie, Isabella M. Gaw, Jacqueline M. Dean, Hannah von Hammerstein, Tabatha A. Knudson, Renee O. Setter, Charlotte Z. Smith, Kira M. Webster, Jonathan A. Patz, Erik C. Franklin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-022-01426-1","url":null,"abstract":"It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions. A systematic review shows that >58% of infectious diseases confronted by humanity, via 1,006 unique pathways, have at some point been affected by climatic hazards sensitive to GHGs. These results highlight the mounting challenge for adaption and the urgent need to reduce GHG emissions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"12 9","pages":"869-875"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9362357/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10734062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 151

Increasing surface runoff from Greenland’s firn areas 格陵兰杉林地区地表径流增加

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2022-06-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01371-z

Andrew J. Tedstone, Horst Machguth

{"title":"Increasing surface runoff from Greenland’s firn areas","authors":"Andrew J. Tedstone, Horst Machguth","doi":"10.1038/s41558-022-01371-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-022-01371-z","url":null,"abstract":"At high elevations of ice sheets, melting snow generally percolates and refreezes, so does not contribute to the shrinking of the ice sheet. Here, we systematically map the runoff area of the Greenland ice sheet using surface rivers visible on satellite imagery. Between 1985 and 2020, the maximum runoff elevation rose by 58–329 metres, expanding the runoff area by 29% (–8%/+6%). Excess melt beyond the refreezing capacity of pores in snowfall has created near-impermeable ice slabs that sustain surface runoff even in cooler summers. We show that two surface mass balance models over-estimate the runoff area by 16–30%. Once restricted to our observed areas, they indicate that 5–10% of recent runoff probably comes from the expanded runoff area. Runoff from higher elevations is sensitive to projected warming as further increases in the runoff limit will increase the runoff area disproportionately. Ice that melts at high elevation often refreezes and, therefore, does not contribute to the shrinking of ice sheets. Here, the authors show that the elevation at which melting ice starts to contribute to runoff has increased over recent years in Greenland, expanding the runoff area by 29%.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"12 7","pages":"672-676"},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2022-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10420621","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 9