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Global distribution, quantification and valuation of the biological carbon pump
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0
F. Berzaghi, Jérôme Pinti, Olivier Aumont, Olivier Maury, Thomas Cosimano, Mary S. Wisz
{"title":"Global distribution, quantification and valuation of the biological carbon pump","authors":"F. Berzaghi, Jérôme Pinti, Olivier Aumont, Olivier Maury, Thomas Cosimano, Mary S. Wisz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The biological carbon pump (BCP) sequesters vast amounts of carbon in the ocean, but its importance for conservation, climate finance and international policy has not been properly assessed. Here, using spatial analysis and financial valuation of the BCP service, we estimate that, annually, the BCP adds 2.81 GtC (range 2.44–3.53 GtC) to the ocean with a storage time of at least 50 years (±25 years). This ecosystem service is worth US$545 billion per year (US$471–694 billion) in areas beyond national jurisdiction and US$383 billion per year (US$336–471 billion) within all exclusive economic zones, where the sum of its discounted values for 2023–2030 is US$2.2 trillion (range US$1.9–2.7 trillion). These results quantify the climate and economic importance of the BCP and the important role of large ocean states in carbon sequestration. These findings can support discussions in climate finance and in the COP global stocktake for climate action.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"125 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143712789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Fossil fuel subsidy reforms have become more fragile
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02283-4
Paasha Mahdavi, Michael L. Ross, Evelyn Simoni
{"title":"Fossil fuel subsidy reforms have become more fragile","authors":"Paasha Mahdavi, Michael L. Ross, Evelyn Simoni","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02283-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02283-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Since the mid-2010s, many governments have pledged to reduce their subsidies for fossil fuels. Yet, it is unclear whether these reforms have been implemented, with prior studies showing conflicting results. Here we collect original monthly data on the 21 countries with the largest gasoline subsidies in the 2003–2015 period and evaluate their reform efforts from 2016 to 2023. Since 2016, there has been an increase in the frequency and ambition of subsidy reforms but a drop in their durability: just 30% of the reforms survived for 12 months, and only 9% survived for 36 months. Subsidies rose for 12 countries in our sample and were virtually unchanged in the other 9. This pattern calls into question the effectiveness of recent strategies for reducing fossil fuel subsidies.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"183 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143702880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Drought hinders the advance of spring phenology through ecosystem memory effects
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02274-5
{"title":"Drought hinders the advance of spring phenology through ecosystem memory effects","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02274-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02274-5","url":null,"abstract":"Analysis of satellite observations and in situ phenology records revealed a delayed onset of spring after drought in northern ecosystems. These delays are regulated by both endogenous memory within plants and exogenous memory of the environment, with the latter having a dominant role.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143703313","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Coastal investment in the age of climate change
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02299-w
Allan Hsiao
{"title":"Coastal investment in the age of climate change","authors":"Allan Hsiao","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02299-w","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02299-w","url":null,"abstract":"Cities have historically benefitted from coastal access, but sea-level rise may turn this advantage into a vulnerability. Government investment should account for future climate risks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143703315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Peatland microalgae are unsung heroes of climate change mitigation
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02272-7
{"title":"Peatland microalgae are unsung heroes of climate change mitigation","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02272-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02272-7","url":null,"abstract":"Under climate warming, increased microbial carbon emissions could diminish the vast carbon stores held in northern peatlands. This large-scale experimental study reveals that warming amplifies carbon uptake by peatland microalgae and partially offsets warming-related increases in microbial carbon emissions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143703314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Rising temperatures reduce the predictability of agricultural drought
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02290-5
{"title":"Rising temperatures reduce the predictability of agricultural drought","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02290-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02290-5","url":null,"abstract":"Drought predictability has a large impact on climate adaptation plans, but its future changes are often unknown. A drought predictability model reveals that increases in global temperatures of 2 °C or 3 °C would cause a significant (p &lt; 0.1) decrease in the dynamic predictability of agricultural drought in more than 70% of the global land area.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143695680","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Food security or climate action
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02297-y
Min Chen
{"title":"Food security or climate action","authors":"Min Chen","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02297-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02297-y","url":null,"abstract":"Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C requires aggressive climate pledges, but their impact on land-use strategies remains underexplored. Now, a study reveals that these commitments may drive large-scale cropland loss, intensifying food security risks, especially in the global south.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"93 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143677821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1
Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang, Changqing Song
{"title":"Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target","authors":"Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang, Changqing Song","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Achieving the 1.5 °C target outlined in the Paris Agreement necessitates coordinated global efforts, particularly in the form of ambitious climate pledges. While current discussions primarily focus on energy and emissions pathways, the fine-scale, location-specific consequences for agriculture, land systems and sustainability remain uncertain. Here we evaluate global land-system responses at 5-km<sup>2</sup> resolution in pursuit of the 1.5 °C target through recent country-specific climate pledges. Contrary to previous studies predicting cropland expansion under a 1.5 °C scenario, we reveal a 12.8% reduction in cropland area when accounting for cross-sectoral impacts of climate pledges and land-use intensity. The reduction is most pronounced in South America (23.7%), with the global south comprising 81% of the countries worldwide expected to experience cropland loss. Food security in the Global South faces additional pressure due to a projected 12.6% reduction in export potential from the global north.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143677822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Glaciers give way to new coasts
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02275-4
Simon J. Cook
{"title":"Glaciers give way to new coasts","authors":"Simon J. Cook","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02275-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02275-4","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is causing rapid shrinkage of high-latitude glaciers, fundamentally altering the nature of Arctic landscapes. Now, research quantifies the substantial, yet under-reported, development of new coastlines and islands that are revealed as marine-terminating glaciers fall back from the sea.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"220 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143666126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Colonial legacies in tropical forestry hinder good management
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02288-z
Benedict Odhiambo, Rosa C. Goodman
{"title":"Colonial legacies in tropical forestry hinder good management","authors":"Benedict Odhiambo, Rosa C. Goodman","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02288-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02288-z","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Forest restoration and management have huge potential to contribute to climate, biodiversity and sustainability goals; and countless projects to plant trees and conserve forests are underway on the African continent. Unfortunately, forest management and governance are plagued by policies and practices handed down from colonialism that impede innovation and progress.</p><p>To colonial powers, natural forests were sources of luxury timber for export, and forestry departments were sources of revenue<sup>1</sup>. Colonial forestry laws and codes were not created to manage forests sustainably, but to define who could access the benefits (that is, harvest, transport and market commercially valuable timber)<sup>2</sup>. Local people were seen as competition and relegated to only subsistence use of forest resources<sup>2,3</sup>. Forestry departments were primarily administrative — issuing permits and penalties<sup>2</sup>.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143666259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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