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Flood-induced selective migration patterns examined 研究了洪水引起的选择性迁移模式
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02346-6
{"title":"Flood-induced selective migration patterns examined","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02346-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02346-6","url":null,"abstract":"Selective migration patterns emerge in flood-prone regions in the USA. The sociodemographic profiles of individuals who were more inclined to move in or out of flood-prone areas were strikingly different. Media sentiment aggravates population replacement in these regions, leading to short-term structure changes in the housing market and long-term socioeconomic decline.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"110 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144201722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate 评估气候变化下生态系统崩溃的风险
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-02 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y
Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith, Nicholas J. Murray, Chloe F. Sato, Anikó B. Tóth, Arn Tolsma, Susanna Venn, Marianne V. Asmüssen, Patricio Pliscoff, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Rebecca E. Lester, Tracey J. Regan
{"title":"Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate","authors":"Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith, Nicholas J. Murray, Chloe F. Sato, Anikó B. Tóth, Arn Tolsma, Susanna Venn, Marianne V. Asmüssen, Patricio Pliscoff, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Rebecca E. Lester, Tracey J. Regan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change affects ecosystems globally, but their diversity and complexity make it difficult to estimate how severe these impacts are. Here we discuss how to conceptualize the effects of climate change on ecosystems so that they can be reliably captured in ecosystem risk assessments, focusing on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems, a headline indicator for the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We highlight key challenges and propose solutions, which include using diverse teams, conceptual models and data sources (including projections), learning from analogous ecosystems, and evaluating uncertainties. This approach will improve the capacity to produce reliable assessments of risk under climate change to inform timely and effective conservation.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"9 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144193352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Prioritizing parents from global genebanks to breed climate-resilient crops 优先考虑全球基因库中的亲本，培育适应气候变化的作物
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x
Quinn Campbell, Nora Castañeda-Álvarez, Ryan Domingo, Eric Bishop-von Wettberg, Bryan Runck, Hervé Nandkangré, Anna Halpin-McCormick, Nathan Fumia, Jeffrey Neyhart, Benjamin Kilian, Peterson Wambugu, Desterio Nyamongo, Sariel Hübner, Sidney Sitar, Addie Thompson, Loren Rieseberg, Michael A. Gore, Michael B. Kantar
{"title":"Prioritizing parents from global genebanks to breed climate-resilient crops","authors":"Quinn Campbell, Nora Castañeda-Álvarez, Ryan Domingo, Eric Bishop-von Wettberg, Bryan Runck, Hervé Nandkangré, Anna Halpin-McCormick, Nathan Fumia, Jeffrey Neyhart, Benjamin Kilian, Peterson Wambugu, Desterio Nyamongo, Sariel Hübner, Sidney Sitar, Addie Thompson, Loren Rieseberg, Michael A. Gore, Michael B. Kantar","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Crop diversity is an essential resource for global breeding programmes aimed at climate resilience. However, adaptation depends both on whether genetic diversity exists and if it is accessible. Here we consider the biological and social risks of crop adaptation at global and national levels using 1,937 publicly available genotyped and georeferenced accessions of sorghum, a staple crop for subsistence farmers. Accessions were given a future climate resilience score and a genomic adaptive capacity score using genomic estimated adaptive values generated from environmental genomic selection. We identified the best potential parents and the geographies that harbour the most promising genotypes for crop improvements, as well as more at-risk areas. Such methods may be expanded to other crops and used for decision support for future breeding. Adapting agriculture to future climate conditions will necessitate increased accessibility to plant genetic resources and their genetic characterization.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"138 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unlocking genebanks for climate adaptation 打开适应气候变化的基因库
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-29 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02336-8
Andrés J. Cortés
{"title":"Unlocking genebanks for climate adaptation","authors":"Andrés J. Cortés","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02336-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02336-8","url":null,"abstract":"Genebanks hold the key to crop resilience and adaptation, yet their potential remains underutilized. Now, a study demonstrates how merging genomic and environmental data can unveil the best-suited germplasm for future climates.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Keeping forests on the agroforestry agenda 将森林问题列入农林业议程
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02344-8
Karam C. Sheban, Sara E. Kuebbing, Marlyse C. Duguid, Mark S. Ashton, Alex C. McAlvay, John F. Munsell, Joseph Orefice, Mark A. Bradford
{"title":"Keeping forests on the agroforestry agenda","authors":"Karam C. Sheban, Sara E. Kuebbing, Marlyse C. Duguid, Mark S. Ashton, Alex C. McAlvay, John F. Munsell, Joseph Orefice, Mark A. Bradford","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02344-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02344-8","url":null,"abstract":"Emerging agroforestry initiatives focus on planting trees rather than managing existing forestland. The result is a missed opportunity to support forest ecosystems, rural livelihoods and climate mitigation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Targeted policies to break the deadlock on heating bans 有针对性的政策打破供暖禁令的僵局
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02343-9
Ottmar Edenhofer, Andreas Gerster, Johannes Gessner, Erica Myers, Michael Pahle, Karen Palmer
{"title":"Targeted policies to break the deadlock on heating bans","authors":"Ottmar Edenhofer, Andreas Gerster, Johannes Gessner, Erica Myers, Michael Pahle, Karen Palmer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02343-9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02343-9","url":null,"abstract":"As an important policy instrument for building sector decarbonization, bans on fossil fuel-based heating face fierce opposition with doubts over their economic viability. With a unified perspective that incorporates the views of proponents and opponents, we discuss the importance of targeted policies to break the deadlock.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Post-flood selective migration interacts with media sentiment and income effects 洪水后选择性移民与媒体情绪和收入效应相互作用
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02345-7
Yi Fan, Qiuxia Gao, Yinghao Elliot Sitoh, Wayne Xinwei Wan
{"title":"Post-flood selective migration interacts with media sentiment and income effects","authors":"Yi Fan, Qiuxia Gao, Yinghao Elliot Sitoh, Wayne Xinwei Wan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02345-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02345-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Escalating flood risks from climate change cause economic losses and alter migration patterns, although their impacts across socioeconomic groups remain underexplored. Here we investigate flood-induced inter-county migration in the United States between 2006 and 2019, and find that floods increase outflow and inflow migration by 2.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Younger, better-educated and employed residents leave, while older, less-educated and unemployed individuals move into affected counties. Such patterns can be amplified by media sentiment on flood risks. Selective migration lowers housing prices but raises rent, suggesting structural changes in flood-prone housing markets. Flood-induced selective migration also has salient impacts on the local labour markets, with net annual income losses estimated to be US$9.3 million and $1.98 million, conditional on education and age profiles, respectively. Our results shed light on how natural disasters influence selective migration conditional on socioeconomic profiles and how information provision interacts with migration incentives.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"59 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Maintaining crop yields limits mitigation potential of crop-land natural climate solutions 维持作物产量限制了农田自然气候解决方案的减缓潜力
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02349-3
{"title":"Maintaining crop yields limits mitigation potential of crop-land natural climate solutions","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02349-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02349-3","url":null,"abstract":"The adoption of natural climate solutions in crop-lands, such as cover crops, no tillage and residue retention, is widely assumed to provide both climate change mitigation and crop yield benefits. We find important spatially variable trade-offs between these outcomes and demonstrate that safeguarding crop yields will substantially lower the mitigation potential of natural climate solutions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"149 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144137031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Vertical climate velocity adds a critical dimension to species shifts 垂直气候速度为物种转移增加了一个关键维度
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02300-6
Laura K. Gruenburg, Janet Nye, Kamazima Lwiza, Lesley Thorne
{"title":"Vertical climate velocity adds a critical dimension to species shifts","authors":"Laura K. Gruenburg, Janet Nye, Kamazima Lwiza, Lesley Thorne","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02300-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02300-6","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate responses of marine organisms differ from those on land as marine species have the flexibility to move vertically. While horizontal climate velocity has been used to predict poleward range shifts, many species are not moving as expected. Incorporating shifts in depth, which have received less attention, may better explain climate responses of marine organisms. Here we assess vertical and horizontal climate velocities across 63 global large marine ecosystems and find that 77% of vertical climate velocities are negative, reflecting isotherm deepening. Vertical climate velocity is 10,000 times smaller than horizontal climate velocity, allowing organisms to maintain constant temperatures by shifting metres in depth rather than kilometres horizontally. Within three key large marine ecosystems, we find more species shifts are explained by vertical than by horizontal climate velocity. Together, our findings have implications for understanding species adaptation to change and for future accessibility of marine resources.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"56 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144104057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands 管理农田的气候和生产目标
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7
Shelby C. McClelland, Deborah Bossio, Doria R. Gordon, Johannes Lehmann, Matthew N. Hayek, Stephen M. Ogle, Jonathan Sanderman, Stephen A. Wood, Yi Yang, Dominic Woolf
{"title":"Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands","authors":"Shelby C. McClelland, Deborah Bossio, Doria R. Gordon, Johannes Lehmann, Matthew N. Hayek, Stephen M. Ogle, Jonathan Sanderman, Stephen A. Wood, Yi Yang, Dominic Woolf","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The assumption that crop-land natural climate solutions (NCS) have benefits for both climate change mitigation and crop production remains largely untested. Here we model GHG emissions and crop yields from crop-land NCS through the end of the century. We find that favourable (win–win) outcomes were the exception not the norm; grass cover crops with no tillage lead to cumulative global GHG mitigation of 32.6 Pg CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent, 95% confidence interval (29.5, 35.7), by 2050 but reduce cumulative crop yields by 4.8 Pg, 95% confidence interval (4.0, 5.7). Legume cover crops with no tillage result in favourable outcomes through 2050 but increase GHG emissions for some regions by 2100. Crop-lands with low soil nitrogen and high clay are more likely to have favourable outcomes. Avoiding crop losses, we find modest GHG mitigation benefits from crop-land NCS, 4.4 Pg CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent, 95% confidence interval (4.2, 4.6) by 2050, indicating crop-land soil will constitute a fraction of food system decarbonization.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144088201","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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