Nature Climate Change最新文献_第2页

Climate change raises costs for European forestry 气候变化增加了欧洲林业的成本

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02409-8

引用次数: 0

Global coastal human settlement retreat driven by vulnerability to coastal climate hazards 易受沿海气候灾害影响的全球沿海人类住区退缩

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02435-6

Lilai Xu, Xue Yang, Deliang Chen, Didier Sornette, Alexander V. Prishchepov, Shengping Ding, Wang Pang, Krishna Suryanto Pribadi, Baofeng Di, Xiaoming Wang

{"title":"Global coastal human settlement retreat driven by vulnerability to coastal climate hazards","authors":"Lilai Xu, Xue Yang, Deliang Chen, Didier Sornette, Alexander V. Prishchepov, Shengping Ding, Wang Pang, Krishna Suryanto Pribadi, Baofeng Di, Xiaoming Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02435-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02435-6","url":null,"abstract":"Retreating from coastlines is one potential human response to the increasing threats posed by coastal climate hazards. However, the global extent of coastal settlement retreat, its correlation with local vulnerabilities, and the adaptation gaps remain less understood. Here we analyse night-time light changes for 1992 to 2019 and show that settlements retreated from coastlines in 56% of coastal subnational regions, remained stable in 28%, and moved closer to coastlines in 16% of these regions. Retreat was weakly associated with historical experiences of coastal climate hazards but accelerated in regions with greater vulnerability to coastal climate hazards—indicated by lower infrastructure protection and less adaptive capacity. In 46% of low-income regions, particularly in Africa and Asia, settlements were forced to either maintain their current status quo or move closer to coastlines, revealing the large adaptation gap in addressing future climate change risks. Coastal settlement retreat reflects human behavioural adaptation to increasing coastal climate hazards. Using night-time light data over 1992–2019, this study finds that over half of global coastal settlements have retreated, driven by insufficient infrastructure protection and adaptive capacity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 10","pages":"1060-1070"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations 利用观测限制海平面预估不确定性的进展和未来方向

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4

Denis Felikson, David R. Rounce, John Fasullo, Angelica Rodriguez, Surendra Adhikari, Brett Buzzanga, Sönke Dangendorf, Robert E. Kopp, Richard B. Lammers, J. T. Reager, Doug Brinkerhoff, Beata Csatho, Manuela Girotto, Benjamin Hamlington, Erik R. Ivins, Praveen Kumar, Eric Larour, R. Steven Nerem, Sophie Nowicki, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Weathers

{"title":"Progress and future directions in constraining uncertainties in sea-level projections using observations","authors":"Denis Felikson, David R. Rounce, John Fasullo, Angelica Rodriguez, Surendra Adhikari, Brett Buzzanga, Sönke Dangendorf, Robert E. Kopp, Richard B. Lammers, J. T. Reager, Doug Brinkerhoff, Beata Csatho, Manuela Girotto, Benjamin Hamlington, Erik R. Ivins, Praveen Kumar, Eric Larour, R. Steven Nerem, Sophie Nowicki, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Jan-Erik Tesdal, Matthew Weathers","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02437-4","url":null,"abstract":"Coastal planning, mitigation and adaptation efforts rely on credible sea-level projections generated by physical models. However, the large uncertainties in these projections pose a challenge for policymakers. Here we provide an overview of the main sources of uncertainty in model projections of sea-level change on multi-decadal to centennial timescales and we offer perspectives on the use of observations to narrow uncertainties. We propose several directions for future research, including improvements in emerging emulation techniques, more systematic quantification of uncertainty structure within both observations and models, lengthening observational records of processes, and expanding collaborations across physical and social sciences. Advancements in these areas are urgently needed, as the next phase of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment cycle gets underway. Sea-level rise poses a substantial risk to coastal communities and economies, thus accurate predictions are needed to enable planning and adaptation. This Perspective provides an overview of uncertainties in model projections of sea-level rise, and how observations can be used to reduce these.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 10","pages":"1039-1051"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Emerging risks along Arctic coastlines 北极海岸线上出现的新风险

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02441-8

Jakob Thyrring

引用次数: 0

Future of climate–city research 气候城市研究的未来

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02451-6

引用次数: 0

Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change 气候变化对欧洲森林影响的成本上升

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9

Johannes S. Mohr, Félix Bastit, Marc Grünig, Thomas Knoke, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Dominik Thom, Rupert Seidl

{"title":"Rising cost of disturbances for forestry in Europe under climate change","authors":"Johannes S. Mohr, Félix Bastit, Marc Grünig, Thomas Knoke, Werner Rammer, Cornelius Senf, Dominik Thom, Rupert Seidl","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02408-9","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change has large economic costs for society. An important effect is the disruption of natural resource supply by climate-mediated disturbances such as wildfires, pest outbreaks and storms. Here we show that disturbance-induced losses for Europe’s timber-based forestry could increase from the current €115 billion to €247 billion under severe climate change. This would diminish the timber value of Europe’s forests by up to 42% and reduce the current gross value added of the forestry sector by up to 15%. Central Europe emerges as a continental hotspot of disturbance costs, with projected future costs of up to €19,885 per hectare. Simultaneous climate-related increases in forest productivity could offset future economic losses from disturbances in Northern and Central Europe but not in Southern Europe. We find high disturbance-related cost of unmitigated warming, highlighting that climate change adaptation in forestry is not only an ecological but also an economic imperative. Climate change will raise the severity and frequency of forest disturbance, damaging the economic value of timber. Researchers show Europe’s timber-based forestry could lose up to €247 billion, yet in some regions the increase in forest productivity could offset these shocks.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 10","pages":"1078-1083"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02408-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145230915","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Health losses attributed to anthropogenic climate change 人为气候变化造成的健康损失

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02399-7

Colin J. Carlson, Dann Mitchell, Rory Gibb, Rupert F. Stuart-Smith, Tamma Carleton, Torre E. Lavelle, Catherine A. Lippi, Megan Lukas-Sithole, Michelle A. North, Sadie J. Ryan, Dorcas Stella Shumba, Matthew Chersich, Mark New, Christopher H. Trisos

引用次数: 0

The expanding role of climate assessments as legal evidence 气候评估作为法律证据的作用日益扩大

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02434-7

Stacy-ann Robinson, Shaina Sadai, Heloise Evins-Mackenzie

引用次数: 0

Neglecting land–atmosphere feedbacks overestimates climate-driven increases in evapotranspiration 忽略陆地-大气反馈高估了气候驱动的蒸散量增加

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02428-5

Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu

{"title":"Neglecting land–atmosphere feedbacks overestimates climate-driven increases in evapotranspiration","authors":"Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02428-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02428-5","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate projections of evapotranspiration (ET) are crucial for understanding hydrological responses to climate warming, which remain highly uncertain because of complex land–atmosphere interactions. Here we develop a theoretical framework to disentangle these interactions, achieving highly consistent ET projections between offline and coupled models. Our findings show that previous estimates of climate-driven ET increases have been exaggerated, primarily due to a substantial overestimation of atmospheric evaporative demand. Notably, the atmospheric conditions often assumed to drive ET are, in fact, responses to ET changes induced by soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. Neglecting these land–atmosphere feedbacks has led to a 25–39% overestimation of climate-driven global ET increases and a 77–121% exaggeration of the negative contribution from land surface changes. These biases have caused large discrepancies in hydrological projections and attributions between offline and coupled models, underscoring the importance of accurately representing land–atmosphere interactions to improve the reliability and consistency of future hydrological projections. How evapotranspiration changes with warming is not well understood. Here the authors show that when often-neglected land–atmosphere feedbacks are considered, evapotranspiration increases less than currently projected by offline models.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 10","pages":"1099-1106"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145032037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Showy dragonflies are being driven extinct by warming and wildfire 由于气候变暖和野火，艳丽的蜻蜓正在灭绝

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02417-8

Sarah E. Nalley, Michael P. Moore

引用次数: 0