Nature Climate Change最新文献

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Rapid increases in satellite-observed ice sheet surface meltwater production 卫星观测到的冰盖表面融水产量迅速增加
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02364-4
Lei Zheng, Xinyi Shang, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Brice Noël, Xichen Li, Xavier Fettweis, Qi Liang, Kang Wang, Jiping Liu, Xiao Cheng
{"title":"Rapid increases in satellite-observed ice sheet surface meltwater production","authors":"Lei Zheng, Xinyi Shang, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Brice Noël, Xichen Li, Xavier Fettweis, Qi Liang, Kang Wang, Jiping Liu, Xiao Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02364-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02364-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Surface meltwater production influences the contribution of ice sheets to global sea-level change. Ice-sheet-wide meltwater production has thus far primarily been quantified by regional climate models. Here we present a 31-year (1992–2023) time series of daily satellite-observed surface melt flux for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. The annual meltwater volume in Greenland has significantly increased, with intensified melt in the northern basins dominated by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation and elevated melt flux in western basins driven by the decline in Arctic sea-ice. In East Antarctica, high melt rates since 2000 are attributed to warm air incursions from the Southern Ocean due to anomalous atmospheric circulations associated with a negative Southern Annular Mode and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. This region, previously less prone to surface melt, has become a melt hotspot, potentially leading to meltwater ponding and future ice shelf destabilization.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"521 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144566084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Promoting targeted heat early warning systems for at-risk populations 促进针对高危人群的针对性高温预警系统
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02374-2
Fergus K. O’Connor, Mehak Oberai, Zhiwei Xu, Sebastian Binnewies, Shannon Rutherford, Robert D. Meade, Steven Baker, Ella Jackman, Connor Forbes, Aaron J. E. Bach
{"title":"Promoting targeted heat early warning systems for at-risk populations","authors":"Fergus K. O’Connor, Mehak Oberai, Zhiwei Xu, Sebastian Binnewies, Shannon Rutherford, Robert D. Meade, Steven Baker, Ella Jackman, Connor Forbes, Aaron J. E. Bach","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02374-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02374-2","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme heat poses a growing threat to vulnerable urban populations, and the existing heat early warning system usually operates at population level. Pairing emerging individualized and population early warning systems could directly and meaningfully extend protection to those most in need.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144547063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world 极端天气事件归因预测全球气候政策支持
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4
Viktoria Cologna, Simona Meiler, Chahan M. Kropf, Samuel Lüthi, Niels G. Mede, David N. Bresch, Oscar Lecuona, Sebastian Berger, John Besley, Cameron Brick, Marina Joubert, Edward W. Maibach, Sabina Mihelj, Naomi Oreskes, Mike S. Schäfer, Sander van der Linden
{"title":"Extreme weather event attribution predicts climate policy support across the world","authors":"Viktoria Cologna, Simona Meiler, Chahan M. Kropf, Samuel Lüthi, Niels G. Mede, David N. Bresch, Oscar Lecuona, Sebastian Berger, John Besley, Cameron Brick, Marina Joubert, Edward W. Maibach, Sabina Mihelj, Naomi Oreskes, Mike S. Schäfer, Sander van der Linden","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02372-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (<i>N</i> = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 4-6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144520502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changing wildfire complexity highlights the need for institutional adaptation 不断变化的野火复杂性凸显了制度适应的必要性
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02367-1
Branda Nowell, Kate Jones, Shannon McGovern
{"title":"Changing wildfire complexity highlights the need for institutional adaptation","authors":"Branda Nowell, Kate Jones, Shannon McGovern","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02367-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02367-1","url":null,"abstract":"<p>As wildfires grow increasingly complex, institutional adaptation—adjusting institutions to respond effectively to environmental changes—is crucial for enhancing wildfire management capabilities. However, institutional adaptation is a challenge as the connection between environmental changes and human institutions remains poorly understood. Here, by analysing trends in five incident characteristics linked to institutional complexity at national and regional levels from 1999 to 2020 in the USA, we show national trends of increasing institutional complexity of wildfire indicators associated with wildfire governance, logistics, management, resource scarcity and network coordination. Substantial regional variation was observed, with some cases exhibiting trends in opposite directions. For example, while average jurisdictional complexity showed an increase in the west, it decreased in the east. These results offer insight into the linkage between environmental change and demands for institutional adaptation and provide an empirical basis for considering potential trade-offs of different institutional adaptations in light of competing pressures.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144488386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Protect young secondary forests for optimum carbon removal 保护幼小的次生林,以达到最佳的碳清除效果
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02355-5
Nathaniel Robinson, C. Ronnie Drever, David A. Gibbs, Kristine Lister, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Viola Heinrich, Philippe Ciais, Celso H. L. Silva-Junior, Zhihua Liu, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sassan Saatchi, Yidi Xu, Susan C. Cook-Patton
{"title":"Protect young secondary forests for optimum carbon removal","authors":"Nathaniel Robinson, C. Ronnie Drever, David A. Gibbs, Kristine Lister, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Viola Heinrich, Philippe Ciais, Celso H. L. Silva-Junior, Zhihua Liu, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Sassan Saatchi, Yidi Xu, Susan C. Cook-Patton","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02355-5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02355-5","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Avoiding severe global warming requires large-scale removals of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Forest regeneration offers cost-effective carbon removals, but annual rates vary substantially by location and forest age. Here we generate grid-level (~1-km<sup>2</sup>) growth curves for aboveground live carbon in naturally regrowing forests by combining 109,708 field estimates with 66 environmental covariates. Across the globe and the first 100 years of growth, maximum carbon removal rates varied 200-fold, with the greatest rates estimated in ~20- to 40-year-old forests. Despite a focus on new forests for natural climate solutions, protecting existing young secondary forests can provide up to 8-fold more carbon removal per hectare than new regrowth. These maps could help to target the optimal ages and locations where a key carbon removal strategy could be applied, and improve estimates of how secondary forests contribute to global carbon cycling.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144370813","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Author Correction: Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments 作者更正:为气候变化评估提供知识综合的建议
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02378-y
James D. Ford, Robbert Biesbroek, Lea Berrang Ford, Felix Creutzig, Neal Haddaway, Sherilee Harper, Jan C. Minx, Mark New, Anne J. Sietsma, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Max Callaghan
{"title":"Author Correction: Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments","authors":"James D. Ford, Robbert Biesbroek, Lea Berrang Ford, Felix Creutzig, Neal Haddaway, Sherilee Harper, Jan C. Minx, Mark New, Anne J. Sietsma, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Max Callaghan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02378-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02378-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Correction to: <i>Nature Climate Change</i> https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02354-6, published online 10 June 2025.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144341487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Social strategies to engage video gamers in climate action 让电子游戏玩家参与气候行动的社交策略
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02369-z
Jennifer Carman, Marija Verner, Marina Psaros
{"title":"Social strategies to engage video gamers in climate action","authors":"Jennifer Carman, Marija Verner, Marina Psaros","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02369-z","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02369-z","url":null,"abstract":"Video games are a popular method for climate change communication, but current efforts undervalue the potential role of gaming communities. To empower gaming communities to take climate action, we suggest social strategies including fostering climate change conversations through games and in gaming social spaces, and organizing real-world gaming community events.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144328789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets 在公平的国家排放目标的黑盒子中导航
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-16 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02361-7
Mark M. Dekker, Andries F. Hof, Yann du Robiou Pont, Nicole van den Berg, Vassilis Daioglou, Michel den Elzen, Rik van Heerden, Elena Hooijschuur, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Chantal Würschinger, Detlef P. van Vuuren
{"title":"Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets","authors":"Mark M. Dekker, Andries F. Hof, Yann du Robiou Pont, Nicole van den Berg, Vassilis Daioglou, Michel den Elzen, Rik van Heerden, Elena Hooijschuur, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Chantal Würschinger, Detlef P. van Vuuren","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02361-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02361-7","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Current national emissions targets fall short of the Paris Agreement goals, prompting the need for equitable ways to close this gap. Fair emissions allowances rely on effort-sharing formulas based on fairness principles, yielding diverse outcomes. These variations, shaped by normative decisions, complicate policymaking and legal assessments of climate targets. Here we provide up-to-date numbers, comprehensively accounting for three dimensions—physical and social uncertainties, global strategies and equity—and the relative impact of them on each country’s emissions allowance. In the short run, normative considerations substantially impact fair emissions allowances—directing current discussions to this debate—while global discussions on temperature targets and non-CO<sub>2</sub> emissions take over in the long run. We identify many countries with insufficient nationally determined contributions in light of fairness and discuss implications for increased domestic mitigation and financing emissions reductions abroad—yielding a total international finance flux of $US0.5–7.4 trillion in 2030.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144296158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using deep learning to generate key variables in global mitigation scenarios 利用深度学习在全球缓解情景中生成关键变量
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02352-8
Peijin Li, Rongqi Zhu, Haewon McJeon, Edward Byers, Peijie Zhou, Yang Ou
{"title":"Using deep learning to generate key variables in global mitigation scenarios","authors":"Peijin Li, Rongqi Zhu, Haewon McJeon, Edward Byers, Peijie Zhou, Yang Ou","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02352-8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02352-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are the dominant tools for projecting mitigation scenarios. However, IAM-based scenarios often face challenges such as modelling biases and large computational burden. Here we develop a deep learning framework to generate key variables through synthetic mitigation scenarios aligned with the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Scenarios Database. By analysing 1,202 scenarios from a diverse set of IAMs, we select key drivers that enable a more detailed sectoral representation. Next, we trained three generative deep learning models to produce 30,000 synthetic scenarios at low computational cost across various IPCC AR6 climate categories, replicating variable distributions and correlations while also demonstrating physical consistency in power sector variables through internal validation checks. We found that the variational autoencoder achieved the highest label transferring accuracy among three frameworks. This study illustrates the potential of deep learning to complement IAM approaches and provides a basis for handling complex mitigation scenario generation tasks.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144278568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Future climate-driven fires may boost ocean productivity in the iron-limited North Atlantic 未来气候导致的火灾可能会提高北大西洋铁资源有限的海洋生产力
IF 30.7 1区 地球科学
Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-13 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02356-4
Elisa Bergas-Masso, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Sagar Rathod, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez García-Pando
{"title":"Future climate-driven fires may boost ocean productivity in the iron-limited North Atlantic","authors":"Elisa Bergas-Masso, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stelios Myriokefalitakis, Sagar Rathod, María Gonçalves Ageitos, Carlos Pérez García-Pando","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02356-4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02356-4","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Rapid shifts in fire regimes affect the carbon cycle by releasing carbon and nutrients such as iron (Fe), potentially enhancing marine productivity and carbon export. Here we use fire emission projections and Earth system models to examine how climate-driven changes in fire emissions may alter soluble Fe (SFe) deposition and productivity. By century’s end, climate change could increase Fe emissions from fires by 1.7–1.8 times beyond projections considering only direct human influences. Model projections show rising SFe deposition in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes under increasing socio-economic activity, potentially boosting the impact of SFe deposition on productivity in the Fe-limited North Atlantic by up to 20% annually (40% in summer), assuming stable macronutrient levels. However, declining macronutrient availability may shrink Fe-limited areas, where climate-driven fires could offset productivity losses by 7–8%. In the Southern Ocean, fossil fuel emissions primarily control SFe deposition, as reductions in anthropogenic fires counterbalance climate-driven increases.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-06-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144278821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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