Navigating the black box of fair national emissions targets

IF 29.6 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Mark M. Dekker, Andries F. Hof, Yann du Robiou Pont, Nicole van den Berg, Vassilis Daioglou, Michel den Elzen, Rik van Heerden, Elena Hooijschuur, Isabela Schmidt Tagomori, Chantal Würschinger, Detlef P. van Vuuren
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Abstract

Current national emissions targets fall short of the Paris Agreement goals, prompting the need for equitable ways to close this gap. Fair emissions allowances rely on effort-sharing formulas based on fairness principles, yielding diverse outcomes. These variations, shaped by normative decisions, complicate policymaking and legal assessments of climate targets. Here we provide up-to-date numbers, comprehensively accounting for three dimensions—physical and social uncertainties, global strategies and equity—and the relative impact of them on each country’s emissions allowance. In the short run, normative considerations substantially impact fair emissions allowances—directing current discussions to this debate—while global discussions on temperature targets and non-CO2 emissions take over in the long run. We identify many countries with insufficient nationally determined contributions in light of fairness and discuss implications for increased domestic mitigation and financing emissions reductions abroad—yielding a total international finance flux of $US0.5–7.4 trillion in 2030.

Abstract Image

在公平的国家排放目标的黑盒子中导航
目前各国的排放目标低于《巴黎协定》的目标,因此需要以公平的方式缩小这一差距。公平的排放配额依赖于基于公平原则的努力分担公式,产生不同的结果。这些变化受到规范性决策的影响,使气候目标的政策制定和法律评估复杂化。在这里,我们提供了最新的数据,全面考虑了三个维度——物理和社会的不确定性、全球战略和公平——以及它们对每个国家排放限额的相对影响。从短期来看,规范性的考虑会对公平的排放配额产生重大影响——将当前的讨论引向这场辩论——而从长远来看,全球对温度目标和非二氧化碳排放的讨论将占据主导地位。我们指出,考虑到公平性,许多国家的国家自主贡献不足,并讨论增加国内减缓和为国外减排提供资金的影响——到2030年,国际资金流动总额将达到0.5 - 7.4万亿美元。
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来源期刊
Nature Climate Change
Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
40.30
自引率
1.60%
发文量
267
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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