Changing wildfire complexity highlights the need for institutional adaptation

IF 29.6 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI:10.1038/s41558-025-02367-1

Branda Nowell, Kate Jones, Shannon McGovern

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Abstract

As wildfires grow increasingly complex, institutional adaptation—adjusting institutions to respond effectively to environmental changes—is crucial for enhancing wildfire management capabilities. However, institutional adaptation is a challenge as the connection between environmental changes and human institutions remains poorly understood. Here, by analysing trends in five incident characteristics linked to institutional complexity at national and regional levels from 1999 to 2020 in the USA, we show national trends of increasing institutional complexity of wildfire indicators associated with wildfire governance, logistics, management, resource scarcity and network coordination. Substantial regional variation was observed, with some cases exhibiting trends in opposite directions. For example, while average jurisdictional complexity showed an increase in the west, it decreased in the east. These results offer insight into the linkage between environmental change and demands for institutional adaptation and provide an empirical basis for considering potential trade-offs of different institutional adaptations in light of competing pressures.

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不断变化的野火复杂性凸显了制度适应的必要性

随着野火变得越来越复杂，制度适应——调整制度以有效应对环境变化——对于提高野火管理能力至关重要。然而，制度适应是一个挑战，因为环境变化与人类制度之间的联系仍然知之甚少。本文通过分析1999年至2020年美国国家和地区层面与制度复杂性相关的五个事件特征的趋势，揭示了与野火治理、物流、管理、资源稀缺和网络协调相关的野火指标的制度复杂性增加的国家趋势。观察到很大的区域差异，有些情况显示出相反方向的趋势。例如，虽然西方的平均司法复杂性有所增加，但在东方却有所下降。这些结果有助于深入了解环境变化与制度适应需求之间的联系，并为考虑在竞争压力下不同制度适应的潜在权衡提供了经验基础。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.