Nature Climate Change最新文献_第3页

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated 中国土地利用变化的碳汇被低估

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-04-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02296-z

Yakun Zhu, Xiaosheng Xia, Josep G. Canadell, Shilong Piao, Xinqing Lu, Umakant Mishra, Xuhui Wang, Wenping Yuan, Zhangcai Qin

{"title":"China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated","authors":"Yakun Zhu, Xiaosheng Xia, Josep G. Canadell, Shilong Piao, Xinqing Lu, Umakant Mishra, Xuhui Wang, Wenping Yuan, Zhangcai Qin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02296-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02296-z","url":null,"abstract":"The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (ELUC) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that ELUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average ELUC was −0.14 Pg C yr−1, accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation. The terrestrial carbon flux—sources and sinks—under land-use change (LUC) is difficult to quantify. Here, using a LUC dataset drawing on remote sensing and forest inventory data, the authors show that in China the carbon sink from LUC (such as afforestation) may be underestimated.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 4","pages":"428-435"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143744732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Constrained Earth system models show a stronger reduction in future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water 受约束的地球系统模式显示，未来北半球融雪水的减少幅度更大

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02308-y

Yuanfang Chai, Chiyuan Miao, Pierre Gentine, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad W. Thackeray, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Yi Wu, Xuewei Fan, Louise Slater, Qiaohong Sun, Francis Zwiers

{"title":"Constrained Earth system models show a stronger reduction in future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water","authors":"Yuanfang Chai, Chiyuan Miao, Pierre Gentine, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad W. Thackeray, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Yi Wu, Xuewei Fan, Louise Slater, Qiaohong Sun, Francis Zwiers","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02308-y","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02308-y","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Although Earth system models (ESMs) tend to overestimate historical land surface warming, they also overestimate snow amounts in the Northern Hemisphere. By combining ground-based datasets and ESMs, we find that this paradoxical phenomenon is predominantly driven by an overestimation of light snowfall frequency. Using spatially distributed emergent constraints, we show that this paradox persists in mid- (2041–2060) and long-term (2081–2100) projections, affecting more than half of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. ESMs underestimate the frequency of freezing days by 12–19% and overestimate snow water equivalent by 28–34%. Constrained projections indicate that the raw ESM outputs overestimate future Northern Hemisphere snowmelt water by 12–16% across 53–60% of the Northern Hemisphere’s land surface. This snowmelt water overprediction implies that the amount of water available in the future for agriculture, industry, ecosystems and domestic use may be lower than unadjusted ESM projections suggest.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":30.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143723125","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global distribution, quantification and valuation of the biological carbon pump 生物碳泵的全球分布、量化与评价

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0

F. Berzaghi, Jérôme Pinti, Olivier Aumont, Olivier Maury, Thomas Cosimano, Mary S. Wisz

{"title":"Global distribution, quantification and valuation of the biological carbon pump","authors":"F. Berzaghi, Jérôme Pinti, Olivier Aumont, Olivier Maury, Thomas Cosimano, Mary S. Wisz","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02295-0","url":null,"abstract":"The biological carbon pump (BCP) sequesters vast amounts of carbon in the ocean, but its importance for conservation, climate finance and international policy has not been properly assessed. Here, using spatial analysis and financial valuation of the BCP service, we estimate that, annually, the BCP adds 2.81 GtC (range 2.44–3.53 GtC) to the ocean with a storage time of at least 50 years (±25 years). This ecosystem service is worth US$545 billion per year (US$471–694 billion) in areas beyond national jurisdiction and US$383 billion per year (US$336–471 billion) within all exclusive economic zones, where the sum of its discounted values for 2023–2030 is US$2.2 trillion (range US$1.9–2.7 trillion). These results quantify the climate and economic importance of the BCP and the important role of large ocean states in carbon sequestration. These findings can support discussions in climate finance and in the COP global stocktake for climate action. This study quantifies and values the carbon stored in the ocean due to biological processes. With uptake in the order of 2.8 Gt per year, valued at around US$1 trillion annually (at a carbon price of US$90 per ton of CO2), this service should be included in the global stocktake and climate actions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 4","pages":"385-392"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143712789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Fossil fuel subsidy reforms have become more fragile 化石燃料补贴改革变得更加脆弱

IF 30.7 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02283-4

Paasha Mahdavi, Michael L. Ross, Evelyn Simoni

引用次数: 0

Drought hinders the advance of spring phenology through ecosystem memory effects 干旱通过生态系统记忆效应阻碍了春季物候的推进

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02274-5

引用次数: 0

Coastal investment in the age of climate change 气候变化时代的沿海投资

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02299-w

Allan Hsiao

引用次数: 0

Peatland microalgae are unsung heroes of climate change mitigation 泥炭地微藻是减缓气候变化的无名英雄

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02272-7

引用次数: 0

Rising temperatures reduce the predictability of agricultural drought 气温上升降低了农业干旱的可预测性

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02290-5

引用次数: 0

Food security or climate action 粮食安全或气候行动

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02297-y

Min Chen

引用次数: 0

Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target 实现1.5°C目标的陆基战略给农田带来的异质性压力

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-03-24 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1

Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang, Changqing Song

{"title":"Heterogeneous pressure on croplands from land-based strategies to meet the 1.5 °C target","authors":"Peichao Gao, Yifan Gao, Yang Ou, Haewon McJeon, Gokul Iyer, Sijing Ye, Xiaofan Yang, Changqing Song","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02294-1","url":null,"abstract":"Achieving the 1.5 °C target outlined in the Paris Agreement necessitates coordinated global efforts, particularly in the form of ambitious climate pledges. While current discussions primarily focus on energy and emissions pathways, the fine-scale, location-specific consequences for agriculture, land systems and sustainability remain uncertain. Here we evaluate global land-system responses at 5-km2 resolution in pursuit of the 1.5 °C target through recent country-specific climate pledges. Contrary to previous studies predicting cropland expansion under a 1.5 °C scenario, we reveal a 12.8% reduction in cropland area when accounting for cross-sectoral impacts of climate pledges and land-use intensity. The reduction is most pronounced in South America (23.7%), with the global south comprising 81% of the countries worldwide expected to experience cropland loss. Food security in the Global South faces additional pressure due to a projected 12.6% reduction in export potential from the global north. Many countries are relying on land-based strategies to meet the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement, putting pressure on land resources. Here the authors show a global reduction in cropland area under current climate pledges, with implications for trade and food security.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 4","pages":"420-427"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143677822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0