Nature Climate Change最新文献

{"title":"Simple logic warnings improve climate argument evaluation across beliefs and partisanship","authors":"Bence Bago, Zoe A. Purcell","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02754-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02754-2","url":null,"abstract":"Collective climate action requires shared beliefs aligned with scientific consensus, yet fallacious information leads people to misjudge arguments. The mechanisms behind these failures remain unclear. Here we isolate the independent effects of partisan identity, prior beliefs and cognitive limits on argument-quality detection. Across four preregistered studies (N = 4,000), we introduce a protocol that orthogonally manipulates argument quality and direction across realistic contexts. In neutral contexts, prior beliefs dominated judgements, with partisanship and argument quality having smaller effects. Contrary to identity-protective accounts, embedding arguments in hostile partisan contexts did not increase partisan bias or impair argument-quality detection. Instead, partisan attacks reduced reliance on prior beliefs, prompting participants to move away from their prior positions. Finally, minimal logic warnings indicating possible fallacies enhanced discrimination between weak and strong arguments. These findings show climate argument evaluation is context sensitive and can be improved with simple logic warnings. Climate discourse is often misjudged, yet the mechanisms remain unclear. Using orthogonally manipulated experiments, this study isolates the effects of prior beliefs, partisanship and argument quality, showing that evaluations of climate arguments are context sensitive and can be improved by minimal logic warnings.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1133-1140"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149010551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flash energy droughts strain grids","authors":"Kavan Javanroodi","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02760-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02760-4","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid declines in wind or solar generation may leave electricity systems little time to respond. Now a study maps these events globally and projects that their duration may increase under climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1123-1124"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149021714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Flash energy droughts in solar and wind resources under climate change","authors":"Yuanyuan Lin, Dongsheng Zheng, Dan Tong, Steven J. Davis, Zhicong Yin, Kebin He, Qiang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02753-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02753-3","url":null,"abstract":"Flash energy droughts, characterized by sharp declines and prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, may pose potential challenges to power system operation. Yet, a clear understanding remains lacking regarding the system implications and how climate change may intensify them. Here we find that flash energy droughts may be associated with higher unserved energy, flexibility requirements and electricity costs. Such events show an uptrend under climate change, particularly in duration—by 25.6% for wind, 29.8% for solar and 155.7% for compound events under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Notably, approximately 70.8% of global wind–solar power capacities face rising frequency and duration of flash energy droughts. While these widespread exposures could be mitigated through strategically prioritizing wind–solar farm deployment, the effectiveness largely depends on climate ambitions and the realization of technical potential. Our findings highlight the potential operational implications of flash energy droughts under climate change. Flash energy droughts, rapid drops followed by sustained low wind and solar production, could pose potential challenges to power system operations. Here researchers find that climate change may intensify such events across wind, solar and compound forms.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1187-1194"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149010552","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Increasing LGBTQIA+ inclusion in climate science","authors":"Andrew D. King, Alex Borowiak, Ruchit Kulkarni, Kimberley J. Reid, Taimoor Sohail, Gen Tolhurst, Anna Zehrung","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02748-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02748-0","url":null,"abstract":"LGBTQIA+ climate scientists have long encountered oppression and discrimination across society and in the workplace. We suggest specific actions, which need to be supported by more data, to make climate science more inclusive.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1111-1113"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149021711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Genetically engineered crops increase climate resilience of US fields","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02750-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02750-6","url":null,"abstract":"Analyses of four decades of data show that genetically engineered varieties of corn, soybean and cotton raised average yields, reduced year-on-year yield variability and blunted the climate-driven northward drift of crop production. These findings indicate that biotechnology is an under-recognized instrument of climate adaptation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1131-1132"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149100860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"New labour and agricultural damages improve climate cost estimates","authors":"Frances C. Moore, Iman Haqiqi, Qinqin Kong, Lisa Rennels, Uris Baldos, Hamsa Ganapathi, Matthew Huber, Thomas Hertel","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02749-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02749-z","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change increases human exposure to heat stress, reducing labour productivity, as workers take more breaks or work at a lower intensity. The global economy-wide costs of these productivity losses, though, are largely absent from policy-relevant metrics such as the social cost of carbon (SC−CO2). Here we estimate heat-related labour productivity damages at US$41 per ton CO2 in 2025 (90% confidence interval US$1–108) using bias-corrected CMIP6 heat stress projections, two labour response functions, general equilibrium modelling to capture economic adaptations and a modern integrated assessment framework. Losses are geographically heterogeneous and concentrated in South, East, and Southeast Asia and in Africa. We also update the agriculture damage function using evidence from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, reducing estimated agricultural damages from US$95 to US$29 per ton CO2. Together, these revisions slightly lower the expected 2025 SC−CO2 from US$204 to US$179 per ton while substantially reducing uncertainty. Heat stress reduces labour productivity, but economy-wide assessments are mostly missing. Using high-resolution projections and global economic modelling, the authors provide new cost estimates, and updated agricultural damages improve confidence in the social cost of carbon.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1170-1177"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149010550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Marine carbon removal at a crossroads","authors":"Peter I. Macreadie, Finn Brown, Finn Ross","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02740-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02740-8","url":null,"abstract":"Marine carbon dioxide removal must advance through rigorous, transparent science, but caution cannot become paralysis. With billions of tonnes of carbon removal likely to be needed each year, we need to test promising approaches responsibly while uncertainty remains.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1121-1122"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"149021595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Divergence between physical and emotional heat resilience in Chinese cities","authors":"Shiqi Zhou \u0000 (, ), Weiyi Jia \u0000 (, ), Yixuan Zou \u0000 (, ), Xiaodong Xu \u0000 (, ), Haowen Xu \u0000 (, ), Hui Chen \u0000 (, ), Mo Wang \u0000 (, ), Cong Guo \u0000 (, ), Bao-Jie He \u0000 (, ), Pan Feng \u0000 (, ), Zhangli Hu \u0000 (, ), Yongqi Lou \u0000 (, ), Fangzheng Li \u0000 (, ), Jiaping Liu \u0000 (, ), Zhiqiang Wu \u0000 (, )","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02732-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02732-8","url":null,"abstract":"Under increasingly frequent urban heatwaves, public emotional responses do not always align with levels of physical heat exposure, but the relationship between the two remains unclear. Here, using social media and meteorological data, we quantify the mismatch between physical heat exposure and public emotional responses from 2010 to 2024 in China, identify its drivers and project this relationship under different shared socioeconomic pathways. The results show that 84.9% of cities suffered high-intensity emotional shocks, substantially exceeding the 52.1% facing severe physical exposure, with underdeveloped regions showing especially prolonged emotional recovery. Physical resilience is mainly driven by socioeconomic and land-cover factors, while emotional resilience is more sensitive to the intensity and characteristics of heat events. The projections indicate that emotional responses declined about 26% faster than physical heat exposure over 2025–2050. The identified mismatch offers a scientific basis for differentiated heat-action planning to address physical and emotional vulnerabilities. Heatwaves threaten both physical and mental health, yet physical heat exposure and emotional responses often diverge. The study shows that 84.9% of Chinese cities experienced severe emotional shocks, compared with 52.1% facing severe heat exposure, driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1141-1151"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02732-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148933043","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration","authors":"Kristina Petrova, Karim Zantout, Sandra Zimmermann, Venla Niva, Matti Kummu, Katja Frieler, Jacob Schewe","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02752-4","url":null,"abstract":"Climate extremes are increasingly disrupting livelihoods and shaping patterns of human mobility. Their longer-term and compounding relationships with migration remain understudied, particularly at the subnational scale. In this study, by analysing global subnational net migration data, we show that associations between climate extremes and migration vary by hazard type, timing, consecutive events, income level and pre-existing migration context. Floods are associated with decreased net migration across contexts, with effects lasting several years and appearing stronger in lower-income areas. Droughts, by contrast, show associations with net migration primarily in higher-income settings, with effects generally short-term. Tropical cyclones correspond to decreased net migration primarily in lower-income areas, with effects lasting over several years. For compound exposure, droughts show the clearest patterns, with prolonged exposure linked to reduced migration inflows in population-attracting areas. These results highlight how climate extremes interact with local socioeconomic contexts to shape mobility. Climate extremes influence migration, but their long-term and compounding impacts are understudied. The authors show that associations between climate extremes and migration vary by hazard type, timing, the occurrence of consecutive events and local socioeconomic conditions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1162-1169"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02752-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148933046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Greening masks stability loss in drylands","authors":"Wen Zhang, David J. P. Moore, Yang Li, Natasha MacBean, Andrew F. Feldman, Christopher R. Schwalm, Yanghui Kang, Julia K. Green, Benjamin Poulter, Mostafa Javadian, Russell L. Scott, Zexi Shen, Youngryel Ryu, Sungchan Jeong, Sasha C. Reed, William K. Smith","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02733-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02733-7","url":null,"abstract":"Drylands are already undergoing large-scale change due to climate change, yet understanding of this response remains limited by observational gaps, conflicting satellite records and substantial model uncertainty. Here, considering trends and interannual variability based on leaf area index (LAI), we show persistent (1982–2020) greening across global drylands and increasing interannual variability. Greening rates are higher than current dynamic global vegetation models and contradict reports of a recent greening slowdown. The interannual variability increase is spatially coherent, covering about 82% of global drylands, and is characterized by increasing LAI maxima and declining minima. Increasing rainfall sensitivity is the dominant driver of increasing variability with both inter- and intraannual rainfall variability acting as secondary drivers. The dynamic global vegetation models analysed cannot reproduce increasing variability and divergent LAI trajectories. Rising variability may indicate eminent state transitions that could intensify carbon cycle uncertainty and disrupt key dryland ecosystem services. The authors consider greening trends and interannual variability, linked to ecosystem stability, in dryland ecosystems across 40 years (1982–2020). They show persistent greening yet increased interannual variability, with the latter driven by increasing rainfall sensitivity.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 10","pages":"1207-1213"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148933045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}