Jianxiang Shen, Shihui Zhang, Mengzhen Zhao, Chi Zhang, Wenjia Cai, Can Wang
{"title":"Improving cost–benefit analyses for health-considered climate mitigation policymaking","authors":"Jianxiang Shen, Shihui Zhang, Mengzhen Zhao, Chi Zhang, Wenjia Cai, Can Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02351-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02351-9","url":null,"abstract":"There is growing discussion about enhancing climate policy efficiency by prioritizing health, with expectations for including health co-benefits in the next round of nationally determined contribution updates. Critical to this effort is the need to compare the benefits to the costs of mitigation. Here we synthesize the current cost-effectiveness of climate policies based on health-included cost–benefit analyses and identify key research challenges and opportunities for scaling up health-considered or even health-centred climate policies. Furthermore, we show factors essential to accelerating the development and implementation of mitigation policies, including providing tangible and policy-relevant health co-benefits, promoting interdisciplinary contributions and cross-sector policy engagement, conducting regional studies and improving inter-study comparability, and exploring health-considered optimized strategies. Mitigation actions can have large-scale health co-benefits, which, however, are not effectively incorporated into policy design and implementation. This Perspective overviews the health co-benefits and cost-effectiveness of climate policies and discusses ways to improve their policy relevance.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 7","pages":"709-718"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144219010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Meeting climate target with realistic demand-side policies in the residential sector","authors":"Lucas Vivier, Alessio Mastrucci, Bas van Ruijven","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02348-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02348-4","url":null,"abstract":"The European Union (EU) has established an ambitious policy framework for demand-side mitigation in buildings towards net-zero targets. Here, we conduct a comprehensive quantitative assessment of 384 demand-side policy combinations for residential space heating that complement supply-side decarbonization efforts. We show that implementing the EU Emissions Trading System 2, even when combined with energy supply decarbonization, falls short of climate targets. Beyond the EU Emissions Trading System 2, we emphasize the need for ambitious heat-pump subsidies as a critical component of a successful strategy. Conversely, a large-scale generic ‘Renovation Wave’ contributes modestly to decarbonization, is not a cost-effective strategy at the EU level and requires significant public spending increases. We advocate for the implementation of a carbon tax, paired with substantial heat-pump subsidies and targeted incentives for home insulation by country and building. This approach supports the decarbonization of the residential sector, limits the strain on the electricity grid and alleviates energy poverty. Decarbonizing the residential sector is essential for net-zero targets, and the EU has established ambitious policy packages with various instruments. This research shows that beyond carbon trading programmes, massive heat-pump subsidies and targeted energy renovation incentives are needed.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 7","pages":"744-751"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"European Union needs large heat pump and targeted renovation subsidies to meet heating targets","authors":"Lucas Vivier, Alessio Mastrucci, Bas van Ruijven","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02342-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02342-w","url":null,"abstract":"Current European Union policies are insufficient to achieve residential heating decarbonization targets. Substantial subsidies for heat pumps and carefully targeted incentives for home renovation are critical to efficiently and affordably meet climate goals. We emphasize the importance of adapting strategies to national contexts.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 7","pages":"696-697"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02342-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144218734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Flood-induced selective migration patterns examined","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02346-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02346-6","url":null,"abstract":"Selective migration patterns emerge in flood-prone regions in the USA. The sociodemographic profiles of individuals who were more inclined to move in or out of flood-prone areas were strikingly different. Media sentiment aggravates population replacement in these regions, leading to short-term structure changes in the housing market and long-term socioeconomic decline.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 6","pages":"593-594"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144201722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith, Nicholas J. Murray, Chloe F. Sato, Anikó B. Tóth, Arn Tolsma, Susanna Venn, Marianne V. Asmüssen, Patricio Pliscoff, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Rebecca E. Lester, Tracey J. Regan
{"title":"Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate","authors":"Jessica A. Rowland, Emily Nicholson, José R. Ferrer-Paris, David A. Keith, Nicholas J. Murray, Chloe F. Sato, Anikó B. Tóth, Arn Tolsma, Susanna Venn, Marianne V. Asmüssen, Patricio Pliscoff, Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio, Rebecca E. Lester, Tracey J. Regan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change affects ecosystems globally, but their diversity and complexity make it difficult to estimate how severe these impacts are. Here we discuss how to conceptualize the effects of climate change on ecosystems so that they can be reliably captured in ecosystem risk assessments, focusing on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Ecosystems, a headline indicator for the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. We highlight key challenges and propose solutions, which include using diverse teams, conceptual models and data sources (including projections), learning from analogous ecosystems, and evaluating uncertainties. This approach will improve the capacity to produce reliable assessments of risk under climate change to inform timely and effective conservation. In this Perspective, the authors discuss how to robustly consider climate change impacts in ecosystem risk assessments. They highlight challenges in defining impacts, indicators and thresholds, in collating data, and in estimating and reporting risk, and propose solutions to inform conservation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 6","pages":"597-609"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-06-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144193352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Quinn Campbell, Nora Castañeda-Álvarez, Ryan Domingo, Eric Bishop-von Wettberg, Bryan Runck, Hervé Nandkangré, Anna Halpin-McCormick, Nathan Fumia, Jeffrey Neyhart, Benjamin Kilian, Peterson Wambugu, Desterio Nyamongo, Sariel Hübner, Sidney Sitar, Addie Thompson, Loren Rieseberg, Michael A. Gore, Michael B. Kantar
{"title":"Prioritizing parents from global genebanks to breed climate-resilient crops","authors":"Quinn Campbell, Nora Castañeda-Álvarez, Ryan Domingo, Eric Bishop-von Wettberg, Bryan Runck, Hervé Nandkangré, Anna Halpin-McCormick, Nathan Fumia, Jeffrey Neyhart, Benjamin Kilian, Peterson Wambugu, Desterio Nyamongo, Sariel Hübner, Sidney Sitar, Addie Thompson, Loren Rieseberg, Michael A. Gore, Michael B. Kantar","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x","url":null,"abstract":"Crop diversity is an essential resource for global breeding programmes aimed at climate resilience. However, adaptation depends both on whether genetic diversity exists and if it is accessible. Here we consider the biological and social risks of crop adaptation at global and national levels using 1,937 publicly available genotyped and georeferenced accessions of sorghum, a staple crop for subsistence farmers. Accessions were given a future climate resilience score and a genomic adaptive capacity score using genomic estimated adaptive values generated from environmental genomic selection. We identified the best potential parents and the geographies that harbour the most promising genotypes for crop improvements, as well as more at-risk areas. Such methods may be expanded to other crops and used for decision support for future breeding. Adapting agriculture to future climate conditions will necessitate increased accessibility to plant genetic resources and their genetic characterization. The authors consider the future climate resilience and genomic adaptive capacity of the globally important crop sorghum using 1,937 global accessions. They identify the best potential parents and geographies for crop improvements, and underscore the need for better accessibility of plant resources.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 6","pages":"673-681"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165523","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Unlocking genebanks for climate adaptation","authors":"Andrés J. Cortés","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02336-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02336-8","url":null,"abstract":"Genebanks hold the key to crop resilience and adaptation, yet their potential remains underutilized. Now, a study demonstrates how merging genomic and environmental data can unveil the best-suited germplasm for future climates.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 6","pages":"590-592"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144165520","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Karam C. Sheban, Sara E. Kuebbing, Marlyse C. Duguid, Mark S. Ashton, Alex C. McAlvay, John F. Munsell, Joseph Orefice, Mark A. Bradford
{"title":"Keeping forests on the agroforestry agenda","authors":"Karam C. Sheban, Sara E. Kuebbing, Marlyse C. Duguid, Mark S. Ashton, Alex C. McAlvay, John F. Munsell, Joseph Orefice, Mark A. Bradford","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02344-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-025-02344-8","url":null,"abstract":"Emerging agroforestry initiatives focus on planting trees rather than managing existing forestland. The result is a missed opportunity to support forest ecosystems, rural livelihoods and climate mitigation.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 6","pages":"581-584"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2025-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144153400","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}