Nature Climate Change最新文献_第10页

Current state of affairs 现状

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-09 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02683-0

引用次数: 0

Early signs that the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism is reshaping EU–India steel trade 早期迹象表明，欧盟碳边界调整机制正在重塑欧盟与印度的钢铁贸易

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02607-y

Gian Luca Vriz, Theodor Cojoianu, Carolyn Fischer, Luca Taschini

{"title":"Early signs that the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism is reshaping EU–India steel trade","authors":"Gian Luca Vriz, Theodor Cojoianu, Carolyn Fischer, Luca Taschini","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02607-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02607-y","url":null,"abstract":"The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) aims to level carbon-related costs between domestic and foreign producers to avoid carbon leakage. Although most existing CBAM studies focus on country-level or sector-level aggregates, the policy is applied to individual goods, where emissions performance and trade strategies vary widely across producers. Item-level compliance therefore depends on facility-level characteristics, making firm-level analysis critical to understanding actual exposure and early behavioural adjustments. Here early signals of the CBAM on India’s iron and steel exporters are investigated by integrating firm-level export data with independent estimates of manufacturers’ emissions and production. The analysis reveals that high-emission firms significantly reduced both export quantities and revenues to the EU during the CBAM reporting phase, whereas low-emission firms maintained their export levels. Such supply chain adjustments are in line with EU policy intentions, creating opportunities for low-emission producers while reducing reliance on high-emission suppliers to the EU. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) was introduced to curb carbon leakage, but its impact is debated. Using export and emissions data from Indian steel plants, researchers show early evidence that the CBAM could penalize high-emission producers, rather than act as a blanket trade barrier.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 6","pages":"737-741"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02607-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

A global early warning system for predicting exposure of biodiversity to extreme heat 一个预测生物多样性暴露于极端高温的全球预警系统

IF 26.9 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-08 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02642-9

Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Lauren C. Andrews, Andreas Schwarz Meyer, Ben S. Carlson, Brian Maitner, Gonzalo E. Pinilla-Buitrago, Alex L. Pigot, Christopher H. Trisos, Adam M. Wilson, Mark C. Urban, Cory Merow

{"title":"A global early warning system for predicting exposure of biodiversity to extreme heat","authors":"Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Lauren C. Andrews, Andreas Schwarz Meyer, Ben S. Carlson, Brian Maitner, Gonzalo E. Pinilla-Buitrago, Alex L. Pigot, Christopher H. Trisos, Adam M. Wilson, Mark C. Urban, Cory Merow","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02642-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02642-9","url":null,"abstract":"Effective biodiversity conservation during periods of rapid environmental change requires identifying the species and regions at greatest risk. However, most predictions focus on biodiversity shifts several decades ahead, offering limited guidance for immediate conservation action. Here we develop an early warning system for biodiversity based on 9-month seasonal weather forecasts combined with species-specific historical temperature limits. In May 2024, we predicted that >3,500 vertebrate species (out of 30,585 species), including >1,250 species of conservation concern, would be substantially exposed to extreme temperatures 1–2 months in advance on average. Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Himalayas were predicted to face the highest threats during this forecast period. Early evidence suggests that exposure in these regions likely negatively impacted some species populations. Such advance notice can enable rapid actions to monitor and mitigate these extreme events for sensitive species and regions. The authors develop an early warning system to predict the risks of extreme temperatures for 30,585 vertebrates 1–9 months in advance. They identify species and regions at risk and highlight the potential for early warning systems to maximize management activities that mitigate negative outcomes.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 7","pages":"828-835"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148288912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Methane eaters cannot speed up enough 甲烷吞噬者的速度再快也不够

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02656-3

Antti J. Rissanen

引用次数: 0

Respecting tenure and the bundle of rights in blue carbon guidance 尊重蓝碳指导中的权属和权利束

IF 26.9 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02651-8

Sarah Lawless, Philippa J. Cohen, Rayhan Dudayev, Elizabeth Evans-Illidge, Catherine E. Lovelock, Bob Muir, Emily Ogier, Sisir Pradhan, Tiffany H. Morrison

{"title":"Respecting tenure and the bundle of rights in blue carbon guidance","authors":"Sarah Lawless, Philippa J. Cohen, Rayhan Dudayev, Elizabeth Evans-Illidge, Catherine E. Lovelock, Bob Muir, Emily Ogier, Sisir Pradhan, Tiffany H. Morrison","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02651-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02651-8","url":null,"abstract":"Blue carbon (BC) projects are proposed in the territories of coastal communities, small-scale fishers and Indigenous peoples, yet how the tenure security of rightsholders is conveyed or protected remains uncertain. Here, by analysing 122 BC guidance documents (scientific, policy and technical), we examine the claims, obligations and interpretations of tenure. The documents reveal overlapping and/or competing claims about interactions between BC and tenure rights, ranging from rights-eroding to rights-securing. Despite increased openness to different forms of tenure, only a subset of tenure rights consistently receive emphasis. Six core international obligations to tenure (including the Indigenous and Tribal Peoples Convention) are overlooked. Ambiguity surrounding tenure implications, coupled with disregard for global obligations and narrow rights interpretation, exposes rightsholders to potential land and resource dispossession, and exclusion from benefits. To rectify this, BC guidance must adopt a more comprehensive view of tenure, engage with international standards and rights experts, and ensure accountability to rightsholders. Blue carbon projects are expanding, yet their implications for tenure security remain uncertain. Analysis of 122 guidance documents reveals that rights are narrowly interpreted and key international obligations are overlooked, leaving rightsholders vulnerable to dispossession and exclusion.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 7","pages":"843-853"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02651-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148288821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Blue carbon projects must uphold the land and sea rights of coastal peoples 蓝碳项目必须维护沿海人民的土地和海洋权利

IF 26.9 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02643-8

Sarah Lawless, Philippa J. Cohen, Rayhan Dudayev, Elizabeth Evans-Illidge, Catherine E. Lovelock, Bob Muir, Emily Ogier, Sisir Pradhan, Tiffany H. Morrison

引用次数: 0

A fixed methane filter maximizes freshwater emissions under warming 固定的甲烷过滤器在变暖的情况下使淡水排放最大化

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-05 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02649-2

Sarah F. Harpenslager, Kate Randall, Yizhu Zhu, Michelle C. Jackson, Ian Sanders, Bruno Gallo, Danielle Harris, Hannah Prentice, Yulia V. Bespalaya, Olga V. Aksenova, Alexander Milner, Tom C. Cameron, Boyd A. McKew, Eoin J. O’Gorman, Gabriel Yvon-Durocher, Nikolai Friberg, Kevin J. Purdy, Guy Woodward, Alex J. Dumbrell, Mark Trimmer

{"title":"A fixed methane filter maximizes freshwater emissions under warming","authors":"Sarah F. Harpenslager, Kate Randall, Yizhu Zhu, Michelle C. Jackson, Ian Sanders, Bruno Gallo, Danielle Harris, Hannah Prentice, Yulia V. Bespalaya, Olga V. Aksenova, Alexander Milner, Tom C. Cameron, Boyd A. McKew, Eoin J. O’Gorman, Gabriel Yvon-Durocher, Nikolai Friberg, Kevin J. Purdy, Guy Woodward, Alex J. Dumbrell, Mark Trimmer","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02649-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02649-2","url":null,"abstract":"Approximately half of all methane (CH4) emissions come from freshwaters, where they are regulated by the microbial ‘CH4 filter’ whose efficiency describes the fraction of CH4 produced that is subsequently oxidized back to CO2 (methanotrophy) before emission. How the CH4 filter efficiency responds to natural warming over centuries or millennia remains unknown. Here we address this question using a natural experiment comprising high-latitude, geothermally warmed streams in five regions spanning the Northern Hemisphere. CH4 production becomes more efficient with warming, linked to increased abundance of methanogens and underpinned by community shifts. In contrast, while CH4 oxidation activity increases, its process-level efficiency does not, and methanotrophs shift towards less efficient taxa. Consequently, the system-level CH4 filter efficiency remains fixed, and CH4 emissions increase. If this fixed CH4 filter efficiency under warming is common to freshwaters worldwide (wetlands, lakes and rivers), then an upward trajectory for CH4 emissions through future climate change appears inevitable. How the balance of microbial methane production and oxidation in freshwater systems will change with warming is unclear. This study uses natural warming experiments to demonstrate that methane emissions increase because oxidation keeps pace with, but cannot exceed, warming-accelerated production.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 6","pages":"704-711"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02649-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk 全球变暖条件下的移动冰雹灾害及其对农作物冰雹风险的影响

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7

Timothy H. Raupach, Raphael Portmann, Christian Siderius, Steven C. Sherwood

{"title":"Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk","authors":"Timothy H. Raupach, Raphael Portmann, Christian Siderius, Steven C. Sherwood","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7","url":null,"abstract":"Hailstorms cause damage across the globe and endanger crops, but their changes in a warming climate are not well quantified. Here we apply three hail proxies to an ensemble of global model projections to show divergent changes in hail-prone condition frequency worldwide. Changes depend on whether the proxy allows instability increases to be offset by temperature or moisture increases. Uncertainty on hail projections remains high, especially in the tropics. In projections with 2 °C and 3 °C of mean global warming, ensemble-mean hail-prone conditions shifted polewards, with decreases in hail hazard in the mid-latitudes and increases in colder regions. Across 26 crop types with fixed exposure and vulnerability, hail risk was generally projected to increase for winter crops such as wheat and decrease for summer crops such as maize. Poleward shifts in hail hazard may attenuate yield increases from similar shifts in crop regions under climate change. How hailstorms change with warming is not well understood. Here the authors use global projections with different hail proxies to show that hail-prone conditions shift polewards under warming, also shifting crop risk related to hail hazards.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 6","pages":"696-703"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02660-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203146","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Grassland restoration increases crop yields through local climate regulation 草原恢复通过当地气候调节提高作物产量

IF 26.9 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02663-4

Min Liu (, ), Kaixing Huang (, ), Jizhe Wang (, ), Pengfei Liu (, ), David Wuepper

{"title":"Grassland restoration increases crop yields through local climate regulation","authors":"Min Liu \u0000 (, ), Kaixing Huang \u0000 (, ), Jizhe Wang \u0000 (, ), Pengfei Liu \u0000 (, ), David Wuepper","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02663-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02663-4","url":null,"abstract":"Ecosystem protection and food security are often viewed as competing goals, creating a critical policy dilemma for agricultural regions. Here we show that grassland restoration under China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy significantly enhances maize yields through local climate regulation. Using a difference-in-differences design with county-level panel data, we find that restored grasslands reduce growing-season temperatures by 0.1 °C and increase precipitation by 11.48 mm, thereby mitigating heat and drought stress during critical reproductive stages. These changes extend the reproductive growing period by 0.93 days, increase yields by 7.76% (0.437 t ha−1) and reduce crop shortfall risk by 25.9%. Yield gains alone offset more than 80% of programme costs within 5 years and the additional production could alleviate 10% of the maize import deficit in the Northern Spring Maize Region. Our findings highlight ecosystem restoration as a scalable strategy for achieving climate-resilient food security in regions similar to our study area. The authors assess the impacts of China’s Grassland Ecological Compensation Policy on climate and maize yields. They demonstrate reduced temperature and increased precipitation, which are linked to increased crop yields that partially offset restoration costs.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 7","pages":"812-819"},"PeriodicalIF":26.9,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148290609","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

High-latitude Southern Ocean warming hotspot induced by ocean mesoscale eddies 海洋中尺度涡旋诱发的高纬度南大洋变暖热点

IF 27.1 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-06-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02652-7

Dapeng Li, Zhao Jing, Wenju Cai, Jiuxin Shi, Zhi Li, Junde Li, Lixin Wu

{"title":"High-latitude Southern Ocean warming hotspot induced by ocean mesoscale eddies","authors":"Dapeng Li, Zhao Jing, Wenju Cai, Jiuxin Shi, Zhi Li, Junde Li, Lixin Wu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-026-02652-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-026-02652-7","url":null,"abstract":"The high-latitude (poleward of ~50° S) Southern Ocean is recognized as a region of delayed surface warming during periods of transient CO2 increase; however, the uniformity of this pattern remains unclear. Here, based on observational and reanalysis datasets, we identify locally (50° S–61° S, 80° E–130° E) accelerated surface warming of 1.5 °C per century for 1982–2023 in the high-latitude Indian Ocean sector. This warming rate is three times the average over the high-latitude Southern Ocean (0.5 °C per century) and close to the global mean of 1.6 °C per century. Analysis of a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate simulation suggests that the hotspot warming is primarily attributed to increased upward heat transport by mesoscale eddies in response to an enhanced Antarctic Circumpolar Current under anthropogenic climate change. Our findings underscore the important role of mesoscale eddies in regulating Southern Ocean warming and the need for their faithful representation in models to ensure reliable projections of future climate change. The Southern Ocean is important for anthropogenic heat uptake, and this regional analysis shows an area with enhanced warming in the high-latitude Indian sector. Model analyses indicate that mesoscale eddies drive upward heat transport, linked to a strengthening of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"16 6","pages":"690-695"},"PeriodicalIF":27.1,"publicationDate":"2026-06-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.comhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02652-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148203145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0