Nature Climate Change最新文献

{"title":"Reconciling widely varying estimates of the global economic impacts from climate change","authors":"Jennifer Morris, Steven K. Rose, John Reilly, Angelo Gurgel, Sergey Paltsev, C. Adam Schlosser","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02232-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02232-7","url":null,"abstract":"Assessments of the aggregate impacts of climate change on the global economy are widely varying and diverge depending on the method employed. It is essential to understand the mechanisms behind the differing estimates and identify a robust range. Only then could these estimates meaningfully inform and guide climate actions.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"124-127"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Policy interactions make achieving carbon neutrality in China more challenging","authors":"Yu Liu, Mingxi Du, Lingyu Yang, Qi Cui, Yawen Liu, Xinbei Li, Nenggao Zhu, Ying Li, Chen Jiang, Peng Zhou, Qiuyu Liu, Canfei He","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02240-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02240-7","url":null,"abstract":"The interactions between mitigation policies could hinder China’s progress toward carbon neutrality by limiting the space for effective policy implementation. Policymakers should emphasize optimizing the combination of these policies to ensure efficient decarbonization.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"134-135"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02240-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Mitigation policies interactions delay the achievement of carbon neutrality in China","authors":"Yu Liu, Mingxi Du, Lingyu Yang, Qi Cui, Yawen Liu, Xinbei Li, Nenggao Zhu, Ying Li, Chen Jiang, Peng Zhou, Qiuyu Liu, Canfei He","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02237-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02237-2","url":null,"abstract":"The achievement of China’s carbon neutrality is crucial for the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement and must involve the implementation of various mitigation policies. However, these efforts are hindered by poor knowledge of the interactions between policies. Here we use a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China (CEEGE model) and create a policy portfolio area of 1,295 scenarios covering four major mitigation strategies (carbon pricing, energy efficiency, renewable energy and electrification of end uses). When the interactions between mitigation policies are considered, the percentage of scenarios in which the carbon neutrality target is reached by 2060 decreases by 84%, with the years in which these scenarios are achieved being delayed by 5–6 years. Only the combinations with renewable energy and electrification of end uses generate synergetic effects on both economic and mitigation impacts. Our work can inform the formulation of more efficient mitigation policy portfolios by emphasizing policy interactions. Various policy instruments are proposed to meet mitigation targets, yet the synergistic and trade-off effects of interactions are less understood. With rich scenarios of policy mixes, the authors demonstrate that in most cases these interactions will delay the achievement of carbon targets in China.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"147-152"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143071928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate injustice through unequal news","authors":"Valerie Hase","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02241-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02241-6","url":null,"abstract":"High-quality coverage of climate change requires trained reporters, editorial support and financial assistance, but news media in the global south often lack access to such resources. Now, a study points to further disparities across language and regional communities.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"129-130"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143050198","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Limited accountability and awareness of corporate emissions target outcomes","authors":"Xiaoyan Jiang, Shawn Kim, Shirley Lu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02236-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02236-3","url":null,"abstract":"Firms are increasingly announcing targets to reduce their carbon emissions, but it is unclear whether firms are held accountable for these targets. Here we examine emissions targets that ended in 2020 to investigate the final target outcomes, the transparency of target outcomes and potential consequences for missed emissions targets. A total of 1,041 firms had emissions targets ending in 2020, of which 88 (9%) failed and 320 (31%) disappeared. We find limited accountability and low awareness of the target outcomes. Only three of the failed firms are covered by the media. After a firm fails its 2020 emissions target, we do not observe significant market reaction, changes in media sentiment, environmental scores and environment-related shareholder proposals. In contrast, initial announcements of these 2020 emissions targets are rewarded with significant improvements in media sentiment and environmental scores. Our findings raise concerns for the accountability of emissions targets ending in 2030 and 2050. Companies have set emissions reduction targets globally, yet whether they are held accountable for the outcomes remains uncertain. By examining the emissions targets that ended in 2020, researchers find low awareness of the failed targets and limited negative reactions from different stakeholders.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 3","pages":"279-286"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02236-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142991013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Empty promises for emissions targets","authors":"Dragon Tang, Jiahang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02239-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02239-0","url":null,"abstract":"Accountability serves as an adhesive that binds commitment to results. Now, a study on corporate carbon emissions targets reveals that firms hold limited accountability to their targets, with little public backlash against missed targets.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 3","pages":"244-245"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142991012","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake","authors":"Anna-Maria Virkkala, Brendan M. Rogers, Jennifer D. Watts, Kyle A. Arndt, Stefano Potter, Isabel Wargowsky, Edward A. G. Schuur, Craig R. See, Marguerite Mauritz, Julia Boike, M. Syndonia Bret-Harte, Eleanor J. Burke, Arden Burrell, Namyi Chae, Abhishek Chatterjee, Frederic Chevallier, Torben R. Christensen, Roisin Commane, Han Dolman, Colin W. Edgar, Bo Elberling, Craig A. Emmerton, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Liang Feng, Mathias Göckede, Achim Grelle, Manuel Helbig, David Holl, Järvi Järveoja, Sergey V. Karsanaev, Hideki Kobayashi, Lars Kutzbach, Junjie Liu, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Efrén López-Blanco, Kyle Lunneberg, Ivan Mammarella, Maija E. Marushchak, Mikhail Mastepanov, Yojiro Matsuura, Trofim C. Maximov, Lutz Merbold, Gesa Meyer, Mats B. Nilsson, Yosuke Niwa, Walter Oechel, Paul I. Palmer, Sang-Jong Park, Frans-Jan W. Parmentier, Matthias Peichl, Wouter Peters, Roman Petrov, William Quinton, Christian Rödenbeck, Torsten Sachs, Christopher Schulze, Oliver Sonnentag, Vincent L. St. Louis, Eeva-Stiina Tuittila, Masahito Ueyama, Andrej Varlagin, Donatella Zona, Susan M. Natali","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region. How the carbon stocks of the Arctic–Boreal Zone change with warming is not well understood. Here the authors show that wildfires and large regional differences in net carbon fluxes offset the overall increasing CO2 uptake.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"188-195"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02234-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142991014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Carbon burial in sediments below seaweed farms matches that of Blue Carbon habitats","authors":"Carlos M. Duarte, Antonio Delgado-Huertas, Elisa Marti, Beat Gasser, Isidro San Martin, Alexandra Cousteau, Fritz Neumeyer, Megan Reilly-Cayten, Joshua Boyce, Tomohiro Kuwae, Masakazu Hori, Toshihiro Miyajima, Nichole N. Price, Suzanne Arnold, Aurora M. Ricart, Simon Davis, Noumie Surugau, Al-Jeria Abdul, Jiaping Wu, Xi Xiao, Ik Kyo Chung, Chang Geun Choi, Calvyn F. A. Sondak, Hatim Albasri, Dorte Krause-Jensen, Annette Bruhn, Teis Boderskov, Kasper Hancke, Jon Funderud, Ana R. Borrero-Santiago, Fred Pascal, Paul Joanne, Lanto Ranivoarivelo, William T. Collins, Jennifer Clark, Juan Fermin Gutierrez, Ricardo Riquelme, Marcela Avila, Peter I. Macreadie, Pere Masque","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02238-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02238-1","url":null,"abstract":"Seaweed farming has emerged as a potential Blue Carbon strategy, yet empirical estimates of carbon burial from such farms remain lacking in the literature. Here, we quantify carbon burial in 20 seaweed farms distributed globally, ranging from 2 to 300 years in operation and from 1 to 15,000 ha in size. The thickness of sediment layers and stocks of organic carbon accumulated below the farms increased with farm age, reaching 140 tC ha−1 for the oldest farm. Organic carbon burial rates averaged 1.87 ± 0.73 tCO2e ha−1 yr−1 in farm sediments, twice that in reference sediments. The excess CO2e burial attributable to the seaweed farms averaged 1.06 ± 0.74 CO2e ha−1 yr−1, confirming that seaweed farming in depositional environments buries carbon in the underlying sediments at rates towards the low range of that of Blue Carbon habitats, but increasing with farm age. To understand the potential for seaweed as a Blue Carbon strategy, the authors quantify carbon burial under 20 globally distributed seaweed farms. They attribute an average of 1.06 ± 0.74 tCO2e ha−1 yr−1 to seaweed farms, and show increased accumulation of carbon with farm age.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"180-187"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142987620","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Trailing edge contractions common in interior western US trees under varying disturbances","authors":"Katherine M. Nigro, Kristen Pelz, Monique E. Rocca, Miranda D. Redmond","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02235-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02235-4","url":null,"abstract":"As climate warms, trees are expected to track their ideal climate, referred to as ‘range shifts’; however, lags in tree range shifts are currently common. Disturbance events that kill trees may help catalyse tree migrations by removing biotic competition, but can also limit regeneration by eliminating seed sources, and it is unknown whether disturbance will facilitate or inhibit tree migrations in the face of climate change. Here we use national forest inventory data to show that seedlings of 15 dominant tree species in the interior western United States occupy historically cooler areas than mature trees, as expected with climate warming. However, the climatic differences between adults and seedlings are the result of widespread regeneration failures in the hottest portions of species’ ranges. Disturbances did not uniformly catalyse climatic range shifts; differences were species- and disturbance-specific. Assisted migration programmes may thus be needed to help trees adapt their ranges to climate change. Climate change and disturbances are changing forest tree composition, but it is not clear if disturbances assist trees in tracking their climate ranges. This study shows that the impact of disturbance on range shifts is dependent on the tree species and type of disturbance.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"196-200"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142934806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump","authors":"Laurent Oziel, Özgür Gürses, Sinhué Torres-Valdés, Clara J. M. Hoppe, Björn Rost, Onur Karakuş, Christopher Danek, Boris P. Koch, Cara Nissen, Nikolay Koldunov, Qiang Wang, Christoph Völker, Morten Iversen, Bennet Juhls, Judith Hauck","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02233-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02233-6","url":null,"abstract":"The Arctic experiences climate changes that are among the fastest in the world and affect all Earth system components. Despite expected increase in terrigenous inputs to the Arctic Ocean, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles are currently largely neglected in IPCC-like models. Here we used a state-of-the-art high-resolution ocean biogeochemistry model that includes carbon and nutrient inputs from rivers and coastal erosion to produce twenty-first-century pan-Arctic projections. Surprisingly, even with an anticipated rise in primary production across a wide range of emission scenarios, our findings indicate that climate change will lead to a counterintuitive 40% reduction in the efficiency of the Arctic’s biological carbon pump by 2100, to which terrigenous inputs contribute 10%. Terrigenous inputs will also drive intense coastal CO2 outgassing, reducing the Arctic Ocean’s carbon sink by at least 10% (33 TgC yr−1). These unexpected reinforced feedback, mostly due to accelerated remineralization rates, lower the Arctic Ocean’s capacity for sequestering carbon. Changes in the Arctic could impact the oceanic carbon sequestration of the region. Here the authors consider regional biogeochemistry, including coastal erosion and river inputs, to show a 40% reduction in the biological carbon pump to 2100 under climate change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"15 2","pages":"171-179"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2025-01-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02233-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142929428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}