Nature Climate Change最新文献_第8页

Climate variability shifts the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the Sargasso Sea 气候变异改变了马尾藻海浮游植物的垂直结构

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6

Johannes J. Viljoen, Xuerong Sun, Robert J. W. Brewin

{"title":"Climate variability shifts the vertical structure of phytoplankton in the Sargasso Sea","authors":"Johannes J. Viljoen, Xuerong Sun, Robert J. W. Brewin","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02136-6","url":null,"abstract":"Marine phytoplankton are essential to ocean biogeochemical cycles. However, our understanding of changes in phytoplankton rely largely on satellite data, which can only assess changes in surface phytoplankton. How climate variability is impacting their vertical structure remains unclear. Here we use 33 years’ worth of data from the Sargasso Sea to show distinct seasonal and long-term phytoplankton climate responses in the surface mixed layer compared with the subsurface. Seasonally, the surface community alters their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio without changing their carbon biomass, whereas the chlorophyll a and carbon of the subsurface community covaries with no change in their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio. Over the last decade, the subsurface phytoplankton biomass has increased in response to warming, whereas the surface phytoplankton have altered their carbon-to-chlorophyll ratio with minimal change in their carbon biomass. Given that satellites can only view the surface ocean, sustained subsurface monitoring is required to provide a full understanding of how phytoplankton are responding to climate change. The authors reveal distinct trends in surface and subsurface phytoplankton dynamics, highlighting the need for subsurface monitoring. Whereas subsurface phytoplankton respond to recent warming with biomass increases, surface phytoplankton show altered carbon-to-chlorophyll ratios but minimal biomass change.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1292-1298"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02136-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317038","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets 碳捕集与封存的可行部署与气候目标的要求

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0

Tsimafei Kazlou, Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell

{"title":"Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets","authors":"Tsimafei Kazlou, Aleh Cherp, Jessica Jewell","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change mitigation requires the large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Recent plans indicate an eight-fold increase in CCS capacity by 2030, yet the feasibility of CCS expansion is debated. Using historical growth of CCS and other policy-driven technologies, we show that if plans double between 2023 and 2025 and their failure rates decrease by half, CCS could reach 0.37 GtCO2 yr−1 by 2030—lower than most 1.5 °C pathways but higher than most 2 °C pathways. Staying on-track to 2 °C would require that in 2030–2040 CCS accelerates at least as fast as wind power did in the 2000s, and that after 2040, it grows faster than nuclear power did in the 1970s to 1980s. Only 10% of mitigation pathways meet these feasibility constraints, and virtually all of them depict <600 GtCO2 captured and stored by 2100. Relaxing the constraints by assuming no failures of CCS plans and growth as fast as flue-gas desulfurization would approximately double this amount. Carbon capture and storage is a key component of mitigation scenarios, yet its feasibility is debated. An analysis based on historical trends in policy-driven technologies, current plans and their failure rates shows that a number of 2 °C pathways are feasible, but most 1.5 °C pathways are not.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1047-1055"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02104-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317026","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation 利用成本效益分析确定需求方缓解措施的关键机会

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4

Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo, Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, Jun Li, Xiaoxi Wang

{"title":"Using cost–benefit analyses to identify key opportunities in demand-side mitigation","authors":"Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo, Ping Qin, Yifei Quan, Jun Li, Xiaoxi Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02146-4","url":null,"abstract":"Demand-side mitigation relies on individuals’ and households’ willingness to alter their consumption habits and daily routines to reduce their carbon footprint. Despite optimistic forecasts for well-being improvements, broad adoption of these behavioural changes remains elusive. Our study analyses 12 behaviours in Beijing, China, using a cost–benefit approach that includes both tangible (pecuniary) and intangible (non-pecuniary) benefits. Our findings indicate that eight behaviours result in individual-level welfare loss. Even after accounting for mitigation benefits, seven behaviours still incur social-welfare loss. Monte Carlo simulations unveil substantial variability in welfare impacts, highlighting opportunities for targeted policy interventions. Depending on the perspective (individual versus societal) and the goal (welfare versus mitigation), we recommend four demand-side practices for Beijing policymakers. In addition, we propose actionable steps on the basis of sensitivity analyses. This study underscores the need for an objective and universally applicable framework to evaluate demand-side behaviours and optimize emissions reduction potential. Demand-side mitigation solutions are seen as an essential part for climate actions, yet their adoption is still lower than expected. Cost–benefit analysis shows that the main barriers lie in the non-pecuniary costs of behaviour switching, and highlights opportunities for targeted policy intervention.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1158-1164"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317023","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Satellite observations reveal the complex annual dynamics of tropical aboveground carbon 卫星观测揭示热带地上碳的复杂年度动态

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02119-7

引用次数: 0

Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet 海洋变暖引发南极冰盖不可逆转的退缩

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8

Emily A. Hill, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David M. Chandler

{"title":"Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet","authors":"Emily A. Hill, G. Hilmar Gudmundsson, David M. Chandler","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02134-8","url":null,"abstract":"Warmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves—the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean shift takes place, ice loss from the Filchner–Ronne and Ross catchments is greatly accelerated, and conditions begin to resemble those of the present-day Amundsen Sea sector—responsible for most current observed Antarctic ice loss—where this thermal shift has already occurred. The Filchner–Ronne and Ross ice shelves are two of the largest in Antarctica. Here the authors show their vulnerability to warming ocean conditions, where a transition to warmer waters in the ice shelf cavities could lead to accelerated ice loss and grounding line retreat.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1165-1171"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02134-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142275889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Crises impact youth mental health 危机对青少年心理健康的影响

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02144-6

Emma L. Lawrance

引用次数: 0

Author Correction: Energy from buildings is key to a warming climate 作者更正：建筑能源是气候变暖的关键

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02163-3

Jorge E. González-Cruz

引用次数: 0

An uplifting outlook for Antarctica 南极洲令人振奋的前景

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-20 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02142-8

Nicholas R. Golledge

引用次数: 0

Limited net poleward movement of reef species over a decade of climate extremes 十年极端气候期间珊瑚礁物种向极地的净移动有限

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02116-w

Yann Herrera Fuchs, Graham J. Edgar, Amanda E. Bates, Conor Waldock, Rick D. Stuart-Smith

{"title":"Limited net poleward movement of reef species over a decade of climate extremes","authors":"Yann Herrera Fuchs, Graham J. Edgar, Amanda E. Bates, Conor Waldock, Rick D. Stuart-Smith","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02116-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02116-w","url":null,"abstract":"Warming seas are expected to drive marine life poleward. However, few systematic observations confirm movement among entire communities at both warm and cool range edges. We analysed two continent-scale reef monitoring datasets to quantify changes in latitudinal range edges of 662 Australian shallow-water reef fishes and invertebrates over a decade punctuated by climate extremes. Temperate and tropical species both showed little net movement overall, with retreat often balancing expansion across the continent. Within regions, however, range edges shifted ~100 km per decade, on average, in the poleward or equatorward directions expected from warming or cooling. Although some species responded rapidly to temperature change, we found little evidence for mass poleward migration over the decade. Previous studies based on extreme species observations, rather than tracking all species through time, may have overestimated the prevalence, magnitude and longevity of range shifts amongst marine taxa. The authors use 12 years of broadscale survey data across 838 temperate and tropical coastal sites to investigate shifts in marine taxa range edges at the community level. They show that while some species respond rapidly to change, evidence for mass poleward migration is limited.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1087-1092"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142245702","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Carbon dioxide emissions from global overseas coal-fired power plants 全球海外燃煤发电厂的二氧化碳排放量

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02114-y

Peng Guo, Huizhong Shen, Yilin Chen, Hancheng Dai, Zelin Mai, Ruibin Xu, Ruixin Zhang, Zhanxiang Wang, Jinling He, Lianming Zheng, Haitong Zhe Sun, Kainan Ke, Jing Meng, Maodian Liu, Jin Li, Wulahati Adalibieke, Chen Wang, Jianhuai Ye, Lei Zhu, Guofeng Shen, Tzung-May Fu, Albert Tsang, Xin Yang, Armistead G. Russell, Charles T. Driscoll, Shu Tao

{"title":"Carbon dioxide emissions from global overseas coal-fired power plants","authors":"Peng Guo, Huizhong Shen, Yilin Chen, Hancheng Dai, Zelin Mai, Ruibin Xu, Ruixin Zhang, Zhanxiang Wang, Jinling He, Lianming Zheng, Haitong Zhe Sun, Kainan Ke, Jing Meng, Maodian Liu, Jin Li, Wulahati Adalibieke, Chen Wang, Jianhuai Ye, Lei Zhu, Guofeng Shen, Tzung-May Fu, Albert Tsang, Xin Yang, Armistead G. Russell, Charles T. Driscoll, Shu Tao","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02114-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02114-y","url":null,"abstract":"Foreign investments in overseas coal-fired power plants (OCPs) largely impede decarbonization efforts, yet their global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have not been sufficiently quantified. Here we analyse investment data from 908 OCPs worldwide, and then reveal current annual emissions of 0.53 GtCO2 yr−1 and a historical cumulative total of 26 GtCO2. Developed nations account for 78% of these cumulative emissions on the basis of investments, while emissions from developing nations have surged from 8% in 1960 to 39% in 2022. Assuming unchanged policies and technologies, OCPs are projected to contribute an additional 15–30 GtCO2 in cumulative emissions by 2060 directly. Furthermore, they could stimulate local coal power growth in emerging economies, potentially adding 6.3–45.0 GtCO2 emissions indirectly. Our study underscores the critical importance of low-carbon policy interventions in emerging countries to curb the power-sector carbon emissions increasingly influenced by international capital. Foreign investments in recent years drive the expansion of fossil fuel electricity generation in emerging economies, yet necessary quantification still lacks. This Article shows how overseas coal-fired power plants could drive future trajectories of CO2 emissions in host countries.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1151-1157"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142245724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0