Nature Climate Change最新文献_第8页

Strategies to improve the impact of the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Cities 提高政府间气候变化专门委员会《气候变化与城市特别报告》影响力的战略

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02060-9

William Solecki, Debra Roberts, Karen C. Seto

引用次数: 0

Sea-level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitats drown 海平面上升导致海岸鸟类数量在栖息地淹没之前崩溃

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02051-w

Martijn van de Pol, Liam D. Bailey, Magali Frauendorf, Andrew M. Allen, Martijn van der Sluijs, Nadia Hijner, Lyanne Brouwer, Hans de Kroon, Eelke Jongejans, Bruno J. Ens

{"title":"Sea-level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitats drown","authors":"Martijn van de Pol, Liam D. Bailey, Magali Frauendorf, Andrew M. Allen, Martijn van der Sluijs, Nadia Hijner, Lyanne Brouwer, Hans de Kroon, Eelke Jongejans, Bruno J. Ens","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02051-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02051-w","url":null,"abstract":"Sea-level rise will lead to widespread habitat loss if warming exceeds 2 °C, threatening coastal wildlife globally. Reductions in coastal habitat quality are also expected but their impact and timing are unclear. Here we combine four decades of field data with models of sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, adaptive behaviour and population dynamics to show that habitat quality is already declining for shorebirds due to increased nest flooding. Consequently, shorebird population collapses are projected well before their habitat drowns in this UNESCO World Heritage Area. The existing focus on habitat loss thus severely underestimates biodiversity impacts of sea-level rise. Shorebirds will also suffer much sooner than previously thought, despite adapting by moving to higher grounds and even if global warming is kept below 2 °C. Such unavoidable and imminent biodiversity impacts imply that mitigation is now urgently needed to boost the resilience of marshes or provide flood-safe habitat elsewhere. The authors combine field data with models of coastal geomorphology and bird behaviour and dynamics to understand the impact of sea-level rise on shorebird populations. They show that habitat quality is already declining and that the current focus on habitat quantity loss can underestimate threats.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141495937","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century 预计在二十一世纪以后持续变暖的情况下，上升流的崩溃将削弱厄尔尼诺/南方涛动

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8

Qihua Peng, Shang-Ping Xie, Clara Deser

{"title":"Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century","authors":"Qihua Peng, Shang-Ping Xie, Clara Deser","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02061-8","url":null,"abstract":"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate has been studied extensively, but the response beyond 2100 has received little attention. Here, using long-term model simulations, we find that while ENSO variability exhibits diverse changes in the short term, there is a robust reduction in ENSO variability by 2300. Continued warming beyond 2100 pushes sea surface temperature above the convective threshold over the eastern Pacific, causing collapsed mean equatorial upwelling with intensified deep convection. We show that the weakened thermocline feedback due to the collapsed upwelling and increased thermal expansion coefficient, along with enhanced thermodynamic damping, are crucial to reducing ENSO amplitude under sustained warming. Our results suggest a threshold behaviour in the tropical Pacific, where a convective atmosphere over the eastern equatorial Pacific causes dramatic shifts in ENSO variability. This threshold is not crossed under low-emission scenarios. How the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will change under sustained warming beyond the year 2100 is not well known. Here the authors show that while ENSO variability will exhibit diverse changes in the short term, continued warming will lead to a consistent decrease in variability in the long term.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141475305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes 气候导致北方湖泊脱氧

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3

Joachim Jansen, Gavin L. Simpson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Laura H. Härkönen, Andrew M. Paterson, Paul A. del Giorgio, Yves T. Prairie

{"title":"Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes","authors":"Joachim Jansen, Gavin L. Simpson, Gesa A. Weyhenmeyer, Laura H. Härkönen, Andrew M. Paterson, Paul A. del Giorgio, Yves T. Prairie","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02058-3","url":null,"abstract":"Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45° N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6 million water quality observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation strongly linked to climate-driven prolongation of summer stratification. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10 ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained oxygen under minimal stratification changes and improved aeration at spring overturns. Seasonal oxygen consumption rates declined, despite widespread browning. Proliferating anoxia enhanced seasonal internal loading of C, P and N but depleted P long-term, indicating that deoxygenation can exhaust redox-sensitive fractions of sediment nutrient reservoirs. The changing climate threatens water quality in lakes, particularly oxygen levels. Here the authors present evidence for northern lakes of rapidly reducing oxygen levels, mainly driven by longer stratification in the warm season, with implications for lake ecosystems.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02058-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141475321","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Ocean dynamics contribute to the amplifying Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast 海洋动力学有助于放大大西洋-太平洋盐度对比

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02036-9

引用次数: 0

North Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast enhanced by wind and ocean warming 北大西洋-太平洋盐度对比因风和海洋变暖而增强

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02033-y

Ying Lu, Yuanlong Li, Pengfei Lin, Lijing Cheng, Kai Ge, Hailong Liu, Jing Duan, Fan Wang

{"title":"North Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast enhanced by wind and ocean warming","authors":"Ying Lu, Yuanlong Li, Pengfei Lin, Lijing Cheng, Kai Ge, Hailong Liu, Jing Duan, Fan Wang","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02033-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02033-y","url":null,"abstract":"High salinities in the Atlantic and low salinities in the Pacific are critical ocean features, impacting ocean circulations and climate. Here, using observational data, we reveal that the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast has amplified during the past half-century. Notably, in the 0–800 m, 20°–40° N band, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increased by 5.9% ± 0.6% since 1965. A decomposition of heaving and spicing modes suggests vital contributions of wind and ocean warming, in addition to known surface freshwater fluxes. Specifically, ocean surface warming leads to poleward migration of thermocline outcrop zones, while surface wind changes cause upper-layer convergence in mid-latitudes. These processes lead to substantial upper-layer salinity increases in the North Atlantic but have much weaker signatures in the North Pacific, determined by the inter-basin difference in climatological salinities. This work highlights the complexity of ocean salinity response to climate change, underscoring the unexpected importance of wind- and heat-driven processes in the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast. Ocean salinity changes are thought to be dominated by freshwater fluxes. Here the authors show that amplification of the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast also involves wind- and ocean warming-driven processes, with larger salinity increases in the North Atlantic, relative to the North Pacific.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141462646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming 热带辐合带迁移的快慢对比与南大洋变暖延迟有关

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02034-x

Wei Liu, Shouwei Li, Chao Li, Maria Rugenstein, Antony P. Thomas

{"title":"Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming","authors":"Wei Liu, Shouwei Li, Chao Li, Maria Rugenstein, Antony P. Thomas","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02034-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02034-x","url":null,"abstract":"Migrations of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) have significant impacts on tropical climate and society. Here we examine the ITCZ migration caused by CO2 increase using climate model simulations. During the first one to two decades, we find a northward ITCZ displacement primarily related to an anomalous southward atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport. Over the next hundreds or thousands of years, the ITCZ moves south. This long-term migration is linked to delayed surface warming and reduced ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean, which alters the interhemispheric asymmetry of ocean heat uptake and creates a northward atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport anomaly. The southward ITCZ shift, however, is reduced by changes in the net energy input to the atmosphere at the equator by about two-fifths. Our findings highlight the importance of Southern Ocean heat uptake to long-term ITCZ evolution by showing that the (quasi-)equilibrium ITCZ response is opposite to the transient ITCZ response. How the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) changes has strong effects on tropical regions. Here the authors show that while the ITCZ moves northwards over the first one to two decades of CO2 emissions, the long-term migration is southward, linked to delayed surface warming in the Southern Ocean.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141462628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Limits on modelling the thermal sensitivity of Wolbachia 建立沃尔巴克氏体热敏性模型的限制

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-28 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02062-7

Perran A. Ross, Ary A. Hoffmann

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Author Correction: Historical impacts of grazing on carbon stocks and climate mitigation opportunities 作者更正：放牧对碳储量和气候减缓机会的历史影响

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02071-6

Shuai Ren, César Terrer, Juan Li, Yingfang Cao, Shanshan Yang, Dan Liu

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Engaging diverse knowledge holders in adaptation research 让不同知识持有者参与适应研究

IF 29.6 1区地球科学

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2024-06-26 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02056-5

G. Cundill, B. Harvey, D. Ley, C. Singh, B. Huson, P. Aldunce, R. Biesbroek, J. Lawrence, D. Morchain, J. Nalau, N. P. Simpson, E. Totin

引用次数: 0