Trade risks to energy security in net-zero emissions energy scenarios

Abstract

Secure access to energy services is a prerequisite to economic productivity and a chief strategic concern of national governments, yet it is unclear how the trade in fuels and critical materials in scenarios with net-zero emissions relates to energy security risks. Here we find that overall trade risks decrease in most countries (70%) in net-zero scenarios due to reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, but trade risks to either electricity or transportation systems increase in the majority (82%) of countries that become more dependent on imported materials. Countries with abundant mineral reserves (for example, Australia and China) become much less dependent on imports, but the opposite is true of countries with large fossil fuel reserves (for example, Russia and the Middle East). We further evaluate the sensitivity of countries’ trade risks to differences in trading networks, energy systems, the material intensities of technologies and recycling rates, highlighting opportunities for technological innovation and policy changes.