Nature Climate Change最新文献

{"title":"Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping","authors":"Freya C. Womersley, Lara L. Sousa, Nicolas E. Humphries, Kátya Abrantes, Gonzalo Araujo, Steffen S. Bach, Adam Barnett, Michael L. Berumen, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Camrin D. Braun, Elizabeth Clingham, Jesse E. M. Cochran, Rafael de la Parra, Stella Diamant, Alistair D. M. Dove, Carlos M. Duarte, Christine L. Dudgeon, Mark V. Erdmann, Eduardo Espinoza, Luciana C. Ferreira, Richard Fitzpatrick, Jaime González Cano, Jonathan R. Green, Hector M. Guzman, Royale Hardenstine, Abdi Hasan, Fábio H. V. Hazin, Alex R. Hearn, Robert E. Hueter, Mohammed Y. Jaidah, Jessica Labaja, Felipe Ladino, Bruno C. L. Macena, Mark G. Meekan, John J. Morris Jr., Bradley M. Norman, Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma, Simon J. Pierce, Lina Maria Quintero, Dení Ramírez-Macías, Samantha D. Reynolds, David P. Robinson, Christoph A. Rohner, David R. L. Rowat, Ana M. M. Sequeira, Marcus Sheaves, Mahmood S. Shivji, Abraham B. Sianipar, Gregory B. Skomal, German Soler, Ismail Syakurachman, Simon R. Thorrold, Michele Thums, John P. Tyminski, D. Harry Webb, Bradley M. Wetherbee, Nuno Queiroz, David W. Sims","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna. The authors use long-term satellite tracking to project climate-induced shifts in whale shark distributions and understand their potential future risk of ship-strike. Under high-emission scenarios, the movement of sharks to current range-edge habitat is linked to 15,000-fold increased co-occurrence with ships.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1282-1291"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02129-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142383821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change","authors":"Johannes Emmerling, Pietro Andreoni, Ioannis Charalampidis, Shouro Dasgupta, Francis Dennig, Simon Feindt, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Shinichiro Fujimori, Martino Gilli, Carolina Grottera, Celine Guivarch, Ulrike Kornek, Elmar Kriegler, Daniele Malerba, Giacomo Marangoni, Aurélie Méjean, Femke Nijsse, Franziska Piontek, Yeliz Simsek, Bjoern Soergel, Nicolas Taconet, Toon Vandyck, Marie Young-Brun, Shiya Zhao, Yu Zheng, Massimo Tavoni","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7","url":null,"abstract":"Climate change and inequality are critical and interrelated issues. Despite growing empirical evidence on the distributional implications of climate policies and climate risks, mainstream model-based assessments are often silent on the interplay between climate change and economic inequality. Here we fill this gap through an ensemble of eight large-scale integrated assessment models that belong to different economic paradigms and feature income heterogeneity. We quantify the distributional implications of climate impacts and of the varying compensation schemes of climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement. By 2100, climate impacts will increase inequality by 1.4 points of the Gini index on average. Maintaining global mean temperature below 1.5 °C reduces long-term inequality increase by two-thirds but increases it slightly in the short term. However, equal per-capita redistribution can offset the short-term effect, lowering the Gini index by almost two points. We quantify model uncertainty and find robust evidence that well-designed policies can help stabilize climate and promote economic inclusion. Climate change and economic inequality are critical issues, and we still lack understanding of the interaction between them. Multi-model analysis shows how climate policies compatible with the goals of the Paris Agreement, including revenue-redistribution schemes, can reduce inequality—particularly in the short and medium terms.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 12","pages":"1254-1260"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02151-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142370101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Scientists have emotional responses to climate change too","authors":"E. L. F. Schipper, S. S. Maharaj, G. T. Pecl","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02139-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02139-3","url":null,"abstract":"The dominant paradigm holding that science is always objective needs to be challenged. When scientists’ opinions about climate change and their own fears are seen as irrelevant, it suggests that science is separate from society; however, this perspective ultimately weakens climate science.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1010-1012"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Arctic soil carbon trajectories shaped by plant–microbe interactions","authors":"Megan B. Machmuller, Laurel M. Lynch, Samantha L. Mosier, Gaius R. Shaver, Francisco Calderon, Laura Gough, Michelle L. Haddix, Jennie R. McLaren, Eldor A. Paul, Michael N. Weintraub, M. Francesca Cotrufo, Matthew D. Wallenstein","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02147-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02147-3","url":null,"abstract":"Rapid warming in the Arctic threatens to amplify climate change by releasing the region’s vast stocks of soil carbon to the atmosphere. Increased nutrient availability may exacerbate soil carbon losses by stimulating microbial decomposition or offset them by increasing primary productivity. The outcome of these competing feedbacks remains unclear. Here we present results from a long-term nutrient addition experiment in northern Alaska, United States, coupled with a mechanistic isotope-tracing experiment. We found that soil carbon losses observed during the first 20 years of fertilization were caused by microbial priming and were completely reversed in the subsequent 15 years by shrub expansion which promoted an increasingly efficient carbon–nitrogen economy. Incorporating long-term stoichiometric responses in Earth system models will improve predictions of the magnitude, direction and timing of the Arctic carbon–climate feedback. Arctic warming is thought to lead to large losses in soil carbon stocks. Here a 35-year-long fertilization experiment in Alaska shows that increased shrub productivity and changes in plant–microbial feedbacks may eventually reverse trends of carbon loss and restore the soil carbon sink.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1178-1185"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368989","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Dynamic nutrient effects on soil carbon","authors":"Birgit Wild","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02120-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02120-0","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in nutrient availability can alter carbon storage and carbon dioxide emissions from tundra soils. Now, work shows that these responses can shift dramatically over long timescales of nutrient addition, by restructuring the interplay between plants and soil microorganisms.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1119-1120"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368961","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Plant–microbe interactions explain the surprising recovery of Arctic soil carbon stocks","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02153-5","url":null,"abstract":"By expanding on one of the longest-running ecosystem manipulation experiments in the world, we found that the substantial Arctic soil carbon losses observed in the first 20 years of experimentation were temporary. We present evidence suggesting that the Arctic soil carbon balance depends on complex plant–microbial interactions that can take decades to manifest.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1121-1122"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142368962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Publisher Correction: Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature","authors":"Paul Waidelich, Fulden Batibeniz, James Rising, Jarmo S. Kikstra, Sonia I. Seneviratne","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02174-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02174-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1210-1210"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-024-02174-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142363131","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Diversity in IPCC author’s composition does not equate to inclusion","authors":"Martina Angela Caretta, Shobha Maharaj","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02150-8","url":null,"abstract":"The IPCC holds the gold standard for climate change scientific knowledge and authority at the science–policy interface. Here we reflect on our experience of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and discuss how diversity in authorship and inclusion of different disciplinary backgrounds can be improved.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1013-1014"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142330390","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Major step up in carbon capture and storage needed to keep warming below 2 °C","authors":"","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02112-0","url":null,"abstract":"A feasibility analysis reveals that carbon capture and storage capacity might be able to expand fast enough to meet the requirements of 2 °C climate pathways but will unlikely meet those for 1.5 °C. Moreover, carbon capture and storage is unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt of CO2 over the twenty-first century, which has implications for the global carbon budget.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 10","pages":"1022-1023"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321197","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How demand-side mitigation can help shape effective climate policies","authors":"Lei Zhu, Pengfei Liu","doi":"10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s41558-024-02148-2","url":null,"abstract":"More understanding of demand-side mitigation is needed for overall emissions reductions. Now, a study evaluates mitigation potential based on a cost–benefit approach, but gaps remain to fully leverage demand-side mitigation to achieve effective climate policies.","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"14 11","pages":"1117-1118"},"PeriodicalIF":29.6,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142317028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}