Pengyang Song, Patrick Scholz, Gregor Knorr, Dmitry Sidorenko, Ralph Timmermann, Gerrit Lohmann
{"title":"Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection","authors":"Pengyang Song, Patrick Scholz, Gregor Knorr, Dmitry Sidorenko, Ralph Timmermann, Gerrit Lohmann","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Antarctic basal melt is crucial for the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation. However, few Earth system models explicitly simulate ice-shelf cavities. Here, using an Earth system model with interactive Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, we show that regional hydrography and topography determine a cavity tipping point. The Filchner–Ronne ice-shelf cavity will encounter such a tipping point with abrupt warm-water intrusion, rapid basal melt increase and massive freshwater release in response to increasing CO<sub>2</sub> levels within this century. Conversely, the Ross Ice Shelf shows a more gradual response. Our results also suggest that previous ice-sheet modelling overestimated future ice-shelf melt, highlighting the need for comprehensive Earth system models with interactive ice-sheet dynamics and cavities for better climate projections.</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"108 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Antarctic basal melt is crucial for the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and ocean circulation. However, few Earth system models explicitly simulate ice-shelf cavities. Here, using an Earth system model with interactive Antarctic ice-shelf cavities, we show that regional hydrography and topography determine a cavity tipping point. The Filchner–Ronne ice-shelf cavity will encounter such a tipping point with abrupt warm-water intrusion, rapid basal melt increase and massive freshwater release in response to increasing CO2 levels within this century. Conversely, the Ross Ice Shelf shows a more gradual response. Our results also suggest that previous ice-sheet modelling overestimated future ice-shelf melt, highlighting the need for comprehensive Earth system models with interactive ice-sheet dynamics and cavities for better climate projections.
期刊介绍：
Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large.
The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests.
Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles.
Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
