{"title":"公共研发投资","authors":"Lingxiao Yan","doi":"10.1038/s41558-025-02339-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ariel Ortiz-Bobea of Cornell University, USA, and colleagues quantified the public R&D growth needed to compensate for the future climate change impacts on US agricultural productivity. First, based on historical data, they used econometric models to quantify the effect of R&D spending and weather fluctuations on national agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Then they estimated that, to offset climate damage by 2050, R&D spending should grow by 5.2% to 7.8% per year under a fixed spending growth scenario or by an additional US$2.2 billion to US$3.8 billion per year under a fixed supplement spending scenario, compared with the US$5 billion per year baseline in 2020. The needed investment scale is large because of the imminent climate-induced slowdown in TFP growth and long research lags.</p><p><b>Original reference:</b> <i>Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA</i> <b>122</b>, e2411010122 (2025)</p>","PeriodicalId":18974,"journal":{"name":"Nature Climate Change","volume":"73 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":29.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Public R&D investment\",\"authors\":\"Lingxiao Yan\",\"doi\":\"10.1038/s41558-025-02339-5\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Ariel Ortiz-Bobea of Cornell University, USA, and colleagues quantified the public R&D growth needed to compensate for the future climate change impacts on US agricultural productivity. First, based on historical data, they used econometric models to quantify the effect of R&D spending and weather fluctuations on national agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Then they estimated that, to offset climate damage by 2050, R&D spending should grow by 5.2% to 7.8% per year under a fixed spending growth scenario or by an additional US$2.2 billion to US$3.8 billion per year under a fixed supplement spending scenario, compared with the US$5 billion per year baseline in 2020. The needed investment scale is large because of the imminent climate-induced slowdown in TFP growth and long research lags.</p><p><b>Original reference:</b> <i>Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA</i> <b>122</b>, e2411010122 (2025)</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":18974,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Nature Climate Change\",\"volume\":\"73 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":29.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-05-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Nature Climate Change\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02339-5\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Nature Climate Change","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02339-5","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea of Cornell University, USA, and colleagues quantified the public R&D growth needed to compensate for the future climate change impacts on US agricultural productivity. First, based on historical data, they used econometric models to quantify the effect of R&D spending and weather fluctuations on national agricultural total factor productivity (TFP). Then they estimated that, to offset climate damage by 2050, R&D spending should grow by 5.2% to 7.8% per year under a fixed spending growth scenario or by an additional US$2.2 billion to US$3.8 billion per year under a fixed supplement spending scenario, compared with the US$5 billion per year baseline in 2020. The needed investment scale is large because of the imminent climate-induced slowdown in TFP growth and long research lags.
Original reference:Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA122, e2411010122 (2025)
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Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large.
The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests.
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Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.
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