Managing for climate and production goals on crop-lands

IF 29.6 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2025-05-19 DOI:10.1038/s41558-025-02337-7

Shelby C. McClelland, Deborah Bossio, Doria R. Gordon, Johannes Lehmann, Matthew N. Hayek, Stephen M. Ogle, Jonathan Sanderman, Stephen A. Wood, Yi Yang, Dominic Woolf

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Abstract

The assumption that crop-land natural climate solutions (NCS) have benefits for both climate change mitigation and crop production remains largely untested. Here we model GHG emissions and crop yields from crop-land NCS through the end of the century. We find that favourable (win–win) outcomes were the exception not the norm; grass cover crops with no tillage lead to cumulative global GHG mitigation of 32.6 Pg CO₂ equivalent, 95% confidence interval (29.5, 35.7), by 2050 but reduce cumulative crop yields by 4.8 Pg, 95% confidence interval (4.0, 5.7). Legume cover crops with no tillage result in favourable outcomes through 2050 but increase GHG emissions for some regions by 2100. Crop-lands with low soil nitrogen and high clay are more likely to have favourable outcomes. Avoiding crop losses, we find modest GHG mitigation benefits from crop-land NCS, 4.4 Pg CO₂ equivalent, 95% confidence interval (4.2, 4.6) by 2050, indicating crop-land soil will constitute a fraction of food system decarbonization.

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管理农田的气候和生产目标

关于作物-土地自然气候解决方案（NCS）对减缓气候变化和作物生产都有好处的假设在很大程度上仍未经检验。在这里，我们模拟了本世纪末农田NCS的温室气体排放和作物产量。我们发现，有利（双赢）的结果是例外，而不是常态；到2050年，免耕草地覆盖作物导致全球温室气体累积减少32.6 Pg CO2当量，95%置信区间（29.5,35.7），但累计作物产量减少4.8 Pg， 95%置信区间（4.0,5.7）。到2050年，豆科覆盖作物免耕将带来有利的结果，但到2100年，某些地区的温室气体排放将增加。土壤氮含量低、粘土含量高的农田更有可能获得有利的结果。在避免作物损失的情况下，我们发现，到2050年，农田NCS带来的温室气体减排效益适度，为4.4 Pg CO2当量，95%置信区间（4.2,4.6），表明农田土壤将构成粮食系统脱碳的一小部分。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.