Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献

{"title":"Deep Ocean Ventilation: A Comparison Between a General Circulation Model and Data-Constrained Inverse Models","authors":"Bruno Millet,&nbsp;Casimir de Lavergne,&nbsp;William R. Gray,&nbsp;Christian Éthé,&nbsp;Gurvan Madec,&nbsp;Mark Holzer,&nbsp;Tim DeVries,&nbsp;Geoffrey Gebbie,&nbsp;Didier M. Roche","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004914","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004914","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ocean ventilation, or the transfer of tracers from the surface boundary layer into the ocean interior, is a critical process in biogeochemical cycles and the climate system. Here, we assess steady-state ventilation patterns and timescales in three models of ocean transport: a 1<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> global configuration of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO), a recent 2<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> solution of the Ocean Circulation Inverse Model (OCIM), and a 2<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>°</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${}^{circ}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> solution of the Total Matrix Intercomparison (TMI). We release artificial dyes in six surface regions of each model and compare equilibrium dye distributions as well as ideal age distributions. We find good qualitative agreement in large-scale dye distributions across the three models. However, the distributions indicate that TMI and OCIM are more diffusive than NEMO. A shallow bias of North Atlantic ventilation in NEMO contributes to a stronger presence of the North Atlantic dye in the mid-depth Southern Ocean and Pacific. This isopycnal communication between the North Atlantic surface and the mid-depth Pacific is very slow, however, and NEMO simulates a maximum age in the North Pacific (NP) about 900 years higher than the data-constrained models. Overly slow NP ventilation persists across NEMO sensitivity experiments encompassing our current best knowledge of diapycnal and isopycnal mixing, pointing to biases in subarctic Pacific dynamics. This study provides a synoptic picture of deep ocean ventilation and a framework for assessing its representation in general circulation models.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004914","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivity of Antarctic Bottom Water Formation and Export to Horizontal Model Resolution","authors":"Christina Schmidt,&nbsp;Adele K. Morrison,&nbsp;Matthew H. England,&nbsp;Wilton Aguiar,&nbsp;Angus H. Gibson","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004621","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004621","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is a key process in the global ocean circulation, but modeling the formation and downslope flow of AABW represents an ongoing challenge for ocean and climate models due to the high horizontal resolution required. Here, we assess the formation and export of AABW to the abyss and its sensitivity to horizontal model resolution in a circumpolar ocean-sea ice model available at horizontal resolutions of 1/10°, 1/20°, and 1/40°. The formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW), the precursor of AABW, reduces with increasing model resolution in most formation regions due to shelf freshening. Increased eddy activity with higher model resolution flattens the isopycnals in the open Southern Ocean and enables access of lighter, fresher waters onto the continental shelf. Despite the decrease in DSW formation, the total offshore AABW transport increases with increasing model resolution, especially across the 2,500 m isobath, due to less diapycnal mixing during the downslope flow. This resolution dependency is strongest in the Ross and Weddell Seas, the two most important regions of AABW formation. We conclude that a horizontal resolution of 1/10° is sufficient to simulate AABW export from East Antarctica, in agreement with theory of the downslope flow of dense plumes, but finer resolutions of up to 1/40° increase the offshore transport and may be required to resolve the AABW export in the Weddell and Ross Seas.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004621","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606686","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Full-Depth Reconstruction of Long-Term Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability From Satellite-Measurable Quantities via Machine Learning","authors":"Huaiyu Wei,&nbsp;Kaushik Srinivasan,&nbsp;Andrew L. Stewart,&nbsp;Aviv Solodoch,&nbsp;Georgy E. Manucharyan,&nbsp;Andrew McC. Hogg","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004915","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004915","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a crucial role in the global distribution of heat, carbon, and other climate-relevant tracers. Monitoring the evolution of MOC is essential for understanding climate variability, yet direct MOC observations are sparse and geographically limited. Although satellite measurements have shown potential for short-term monitoring of the MOC, it remains unclear whether MOC variability on decadal and longer timescales can be detected remotely. In this study, we leverage machine learning to reconstruct long-term MOC variability from satellite-measurable quantities, using climate simulations under pre-industrial conditions. We demonstrate that our proposed non-local dual-branch neural network (DBNN) effectively reconstructs both the strength and vertical structure of the Atlantic MOC (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean MOCs across sub-annual to multi-decadal timescales. Using a neural network interpretation technique, we identify ocean bottom pressure near the western boundary and along dense-water export pathways as the dominant input features for MOC reconstruction. This indicates that DBNN's predictions can be interpreted as an approximation of geostrophic balance. The DBNN also effectively reconstructs the AMOC in the equatorial region, where geostrophy breaks down. This success is attributed to the capability of DBNN in utilizing latitudinally non-local ocean bottom pressure information and the meridional coherence of AMOC variability. Additionally, the DBNN accurately reconstructs Southern Ocean MOCs using only sea surface height and zonal wind stress as inputs, thereby avoiding reliance on ocean bottom pressure, which is subject to considerable measurement uncertainty in practice. This work demonstrates the possibility of continuous, long-term MOC monitoring using satellite measurements.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004915","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144606650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Stable Machine-Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection-Permitting Simulations","authors":"Zeyuan Hu,&nbsp;Akshay Subramaniam,&nbsp;Zhiming Kuang,&nbsp;Jerry Lin,&nbsp;Sungduk Yu,&nbsp;Walter M. Hannah,&nbsp;Noah D. Brenowitz,&nbsp;Josh Romero,&nbsp;Michael S. Pritchard","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004618","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004618","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004618","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Coupling Soil Gravel Parameterization Into WRF: A Case Study of the Tibetan Plateau Vortex","authors":"Yue Xu,&nbsp;Yaoming Ma,&nbsp;Shihua Lyu,&nbsp;Hongchao Zuo,&nbsp;Wei Hu","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004923","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Tibetan Plateau has substantial dynamic and thermal effects on regional and global climate, with plateau vortices (TPVs) playing a key role in summer precipitation. However, current land surface models often overlook the influence of gravel on soil hydrology and thermodynamics, which may influence vortex evolution. In this study, we incorporated the influence of gravel on soil properties into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore its effect on TPV dynamics. Two simulations were conducted: one without gravel parameterization (WRF-Ctl) and one with gravel (WRF-Gravel). Results showed that WRF-Gravel produced a more rapidly developing vortex with better alignment to observational data in terms of position and scale. Sensitivity experiments with gravel content set to 0%, 50%, and 100% indicate that increased gravel content enhances soil permeability, reduces soil moisture, and decreases surface latent heat flux. This reduction weakens atmospheric instability, limits convective energy, and leads to reduced precipitation and vortex intensity. While these results provide preliminary insights into the potential role of gravel in modulating TPV thermodynamic and dynamic processes, further multi-case and long-term studies are needed to validate these findings and assess their broader applicability.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004923","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Derivation and Numerical Assessment of a Stochastic Large–Scale Hydrostatic Primitive Equations Model","authors":"Francesco L. Tucciarone,&nbsp;Long Li,&nbsp;Etienne Mémin,&nbsp;Pranav Chandramouli","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004783","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004783","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Planetary flows are shaped by interactions at scales much smaller than the flows themselves, with mesoscale and sub–mesoscale eddies playing key roles in mixing, particle transport and tracer dispersion. To capture these effects, we introduce a stochastic formulation of the primitive equations within the Location Uncertainty (LU) framework. Derived from conservation principles via a stochastic Reynolds transport theorem, this approach decomposes velocity into a smooth–in–time large–scale component and a random–in–time field representing unresolved scales effects. To model the velocity noise term, we develop two data–driven methods based on Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and extend this to hybrid approaches combining model– and data–driven constraints. Simulations show that the LU framework enhances gyre flow predictions, improving mixing, jet structure, and tracer transport while revealing the interplay between small– and large–scale dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004783","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144589927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Earth System Model Tuning Without Hyperparameters","authors":"Nikki Lydeen,&nbsp;Timothy DelSole,&nbsp;Benjamin Cash","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004607","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This article introduces a new algorithm, <i>KalmRidge</i>, and demonstrates its ability to tune an Earth system model using idealized experiments. Unlike similar algorithms, KalmRidge eliminates the need for offline hyperparameter selection, thereby substantially reducing computational expense. This is done by rewriting the update equations for the ensemble Kalman filter as an equivalent ridge regression problem, then applying standard cross-validation techniques to adaptively choose the regularization parameter. We propose that this algorithm, with time-mean spherical harmonic projections as tuning targets, provides a promising, tractable approach for parameter estimation.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004607","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144582187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reconciling the Discrepancies of Equivalent Potential Temperatures in Atmosphere: A General Pathway Rooted in Entropy Conservation","authors":"Jian-Feng Gu,&nbsp;Zhe-Min Tan","doi":"10.1029/2025MS004985","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2025MS004985","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Equivalent potential temperature is a widely used thermodynamic variable in atmospheric science. However, various formulations have been proposed in the literature over the last one and half-century but their differences and connections are not straightforward to be understood. In this study, a general pathway is proposed to understand the differences and consistency between equivalent potential temperatures in the atmosphere. It is found that previous formulations of equivalent potential temperature can be explained in a mathematically and physically consistent way, and can be easily derived from the general pathway. In addition, new formulations of equivalent potential temperature under certain processes can be defined under the general pathway, without sophisticated mathematical derivation and inconsistent thermodynamic approximations. Our study provides insights to define new thermodynamic variables that can be applied to a wide range of physical conditions and advance our understanding of weather and climate systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025MS004985","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144573228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"TECs (v1): A Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Cycle Simulator Integrated With Spectral Reflection and Emission","authors":"Haoran Liu,&nbsp;Min Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004673","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004673","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately estimating carbon fluxes in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) is of great significance for Earth system science. Using satellite observations to optimize TBMs is an effective approach to achieve this goal. Radiative transfer is the physical linkage between TBMs and satellite observations. Therefore, a sophisticated radiative transfer model in TBMs, which explicitly links satellite-observable surface reflectance to biophysical and biochemical processes within the vegetation canopy, and allows directly using remote sensing data to effectively constrain or optimize TBMs. Here, we developed the terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle simulator (TECs) with a strategic design that incorporates an advanced radiative transfer model (RTM) based on the spectral invariant theory. This model simultaneously simulates carbon fluxes and high-resolution spectral signals across optical to thermal wavelengths under any specified sun-sensor geometry. We calibrated and tested TECs simulations at the Harvard Forest (HARV) National Ecological Observation Network site using a range of ecological and satellite data. After calibrating parameters, TECs accurately simulates net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (hourly: <i>R</i>² = 0.80, mean absolute error (MAE) = 1.85 μmol/m²/s; daily: <i>R</i>² = 0.71, MAE = 1.25 μmol/m²/s), hyperspectral reflectance (<i>R</i>²: 0.85, MAE: 0.04), and land surface temperature (LST) (<i>R</i>²: 0.85, MAE: 3.04°C). These results demonstrate that TECs is a promising tool for enhancing terrestrial carbon flux modeling using next-generation hyperspectral observations. TECs lays a strong foundation for future integration of hyperspectral data and models to improve carbon flux predictions.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004673","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144551011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Review of Green's Function Methods for Tracer Timescales and Pathways in Ocean Models","authors":"Thomas W. N. Haine,&nbsp;Stephen M. Griffies,&nbsp;Geoffrey Gebbie,&nbsp;Wenrui Jiang","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004637","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding advective-diffusive dispersal of trace substances in environmental fluids like the global ocean is a ubiquitous challenge in geophysics. Since the turn of the millennium, substantial progress has been made in the theory, implementation in models, and application of such tracers in oceanography. For the first time, this progress is reviewed here in a synthetic way. We focus on tracer techniques in ocean models, including real and virtual tracers that diagnose timescale information, and we emphasize the connection to the Green's function that solves the advection-diffusion equation. Implementation of these techniques in ocean models is explained in an accessible way. We present example applications of these techniques to questions concerning ocean circulation, transport of biogeochemicals, and paleoceanography, including future opportunities.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004637","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144536797","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}