Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献

{"title":"The Efficient Integration of Dust and Numerical Weather Prediction for Renewable Energy Applications","authors":"Xi Chen,&nbsp;Mei Chong,&nbsp;Shian-Jiann Lin,&nbsp;Zhi Liang,&nbsp;Paul Ginoux,&nbsp;Yuan Liang,&nbsp;Bihui Zhang,&nbsp;Qian Song,&nbsp;Shengkai Wang,&nbsp;Jiawei Li,&nbsp;Yimin Liu","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004525","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004525","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The growing demand for renewable energy underscores the importance of accurate dust forecasting in regions with abundant wind and solar resources. However, leading real-time global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often lack dust modules due to computational constraints. Current “Near-Real-Time” dust forecasting services can only run after the completion of NWP, failing to meet the timeliness requirements for reporting power generation plans to the grids. This work proposes a global dust-weather integrated (iDust) model development paradigm, efficiently incorporating dust modules into the dynamical core. Using about one-eighth additional computing power, iDust extends global 12.5 km resolution NWP with dust prediction capabilities. iDust's forecasting abilities are evaluated against ECMWF CAMS forecast and NASA MERRA2 reanalysis, including verifications over China from March to May 2023 and three extreme dust events. Results show that iDust outperforms its counterparts in dust storm forecasting intensity and timing. Using iDust, global 12.5-km 10-day hourly dust storm forecast simulations initiated at 00UTC can produce results by 06UTC, enabling timely forecasting of severe dust storms with concentrations exceeding 1,000 μg/m³. This novel capability of iDust can meet the urgent forecasting needs of the renewable energy industry for extreme dust conditions, supporting the green energy transition.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004525","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Spectral Flux Decomposition in a Wind-Driven Channel Flow With Near-Inertial Waves","authors":"Michal Shaham,&nbsp;Roy Barkan","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004036","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004036","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In recent years it has become evident that the spatiotemporal distribution of oceanic kinetic energy (KE) is strongly influenced by the interactions between oceanic mesoscale eddies, submesoscale currents, and near-inertial waves (NIWs). However, the proposed interaction mechanisms remain difficult to evaluate and quantify in complex oceanic numerical simulations. To address these difficulties we introduce an analysis framework that combines spectral KE flux computations across horizontal wavenumbers with temporal filtering and a Helmholtz decomposition, and apply it to idealized, high-resolution, baroclinic channel solutions consisting of eddies, fronts, and filaments in the <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mi>O</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>(</mo>\u0000 <mn>1</mn>\u0000 <mo>)</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $O(1)$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> Rossby parameter regime. By comparing solutions with and without NIW forcing we are able to demonstrate that externally forced NIWs lead to a reduction in the inverse KE cascade of the low-passed eddying flow, and to an enhancement in its forward cascade. These stimulated cascades are associated with the interactions between rotational and divergent eddy motions, characteristic of mesoscale eddies and submesoscale currents, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate that at larger spatial scales the forward KE cascade of NIWs is accomplished through wave scattering and direct extraction by rotational eddy motions, whereas at smaller spatial scales it is also dominated by wave-wave interactions. The caveats of our framework, its suitability to investigate eddy-NIW interactions in realistic oceanic simulations and the disparities between the spectral KE flux and the coarse-graining methods are also discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004036","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Derivation and Implementation of a Non-Local Term to Improve the Oceanic Convection Representation Within the k–ɛ Parameterization","authors":"Alexandre Legay,&nbsp;Bruno Deremble,&nbsp;Hans Burchard","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004243","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004243","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;The representation of turbulent fluxes during oceanic convective events is important to capture the evolution of the oceanic mixed layer. To improve the accuracy of turbulent fluxes, we examine the possibility of adding a non-local component in their expression in addition to the usual downgradient part. To do so, we extend the &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $k$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;–&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;ε&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $varepsilon $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; algebraic second-moment closure by relaxing the assumption on the equilibrium of the temperature variance &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;′&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;‾&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $overline{{theta }^{prime 2}}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;. With this additional evolution equation for the temperature variance, we obtain a &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $k$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;–&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;ε&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $varepsilon $&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;–&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;θ&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;′&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;2&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;/msup&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;‾&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mover&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $overline{{theta }^{prime 2}}$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; model (the “&lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;k&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;ε&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;t&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $kvarepsilon t$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;” model) which includes a non-local term for the temperature flux. We validate this new model against Large Eddy Simulations (LES) in three test cases: free convection (FC), wind-driven mixing, and ","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004243","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143115232","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reduction of Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias by Convection Parameterization in NCAR CESM2.2","authors":"Xiaoliang Song,&nbsp;Guang J. Zhang","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004309","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The impact of convective closure on the double-ITCZ bias in the NCAR CESM2.2 is investigated in this study. The standard CESM2.2 simulates a remarkable double-ITCZ bias in the central and eastern Pacific, especially in boreal winter and spring. Modifications to the closure in convection parameterization scheme greatly reduce the double-ITCZ bias in all seasons, demonstrating that convection parameterization can substantially influence the double-ITCZ bias in CESM2.2. Further analyses suggest that convection parameterization can modulate the tropical atmosphere-ocean feedback processes, through which it influences the SST in the southern ITCZ region and hence the double-ITCZ bias. The changes in the upper ocean temperature advection induced by modified convective closure plays important roles in reducing the warm SST bias and double-ITCZ precipitation bias in the southern ITCZ region. The modified convective closure improves the low-level cloud and shortwave cloud radiative forcing in the southeastern Pacific. However, surface heat flux plays only a limited role in reducing warm SST bias and double ITCZ bias because the impacts of shortwave radiation changes are largely canceled by changes in longwave radiation and latent heat flux.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004309","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143113671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Reliable Generative Adversarial Network Approach for Climate Downscaling and Weather Generation","authors":"Neelesh Rampal,&nbsp;Peter B. Gibson,&nbsp;Steven Sherwood,&nbsp;Gab Abramowitz,&nbsp;Sanaa Hobeichi","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004668","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004668","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anticipating climate impacts and risks in present or future climates requires predicting the statistics of high-impact weather events at fine-scales. Direct numerical simulations of fine-scale weather are computationally too expensive for many applications. While deterministic-based (deep-learning or statistical) downscaling of low-resolution climate simulations are several orders of magnitude faster than direct numerical simulations, it suffers from several limitations. These limitations include the tendency to regress to the mean, which produces excessively smooth predictions and underestimates the magnitude of extreme events. They also fail to preserve statistical measures that are key for climate research. We use a conditional GAN (cGAN) architecture to downscale daily precipitation as a Regional Climate Model (RCM) emulator. The cGAN generates plausible residuals on top of the predictable expectation state produced by a deterministic deep learning algorithm. The skill of cGANs is highly sensitive to a hyperparameter known as the weight of the adversarial loss (<span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>λ</mi>\u0000 <mtext>adv</mtext>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${lambda }_{text{adv}}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>), where the value of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>λ</mi>\u0000 <mtext>adv</mtext>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${lambda }_{text{adv}}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> required for accurate results varies with season and performance metric, casting doubt on the reliability of cGANs as usually implemented. However, by applying a simple intensity constraint to the loss function, it is possible to obtain reliable performance results across <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mi>λ</mi>\u0000 <mtext>adv</mtext>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${lambda }_{text{adv}}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> spanning two orders of magnitude. CGANs are considerably more skillful in capturing climatological statistics, including the distribution and spatial characteristics of extreme events. With this modification, we expect cGANs to be readily transferable to other applications and time periods, making them a useful weather generator for representing extreme event statistics in present and future climates.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004668","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Advancing Enhanced Weathering Modeling in Soils: Critical Comparison With Experimental Data","authors":"Matteo B. Bertagni,&nbsp;Salvatore Calabrese,&nbsp;Giuseppe Cipolla,&nbsp;Leonardo V. Noto,&nbsp;Amilcare Porporato","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004224","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Enhanced weathering (EW) is a promising strategy to remove atmospheric <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msub>\u0000 <mtext>CO</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msub>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{CO}}_{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> by amending agricultural and forestry soils with ground silicate rocks. However, current model-based EW assessments face large uncertainties stemming from the intricate interplay among soil processes, compounded by the absence of a detailed comparison with available observational data. Here, we address this critical gap by first advancing a dynamic, ecohydrological, and biogeochemical Soil Model for Enhanced Weathering (SMEW). We then conduct a hierarchical model-experiment comparison with four experimental data sets of increasing complexity, from simple closed incubation systems to open mesocosm experiments. The comparison demonstrates SMEW's ability to capture the dynamics of primary variables, including soil moisture, alkalinity, and inorganic carbon. The comparison also reveals that weathering rates are consistently lower than traditionally assumed by up to two orders of magnitude. We finally discuss the implications for carbon removal scenarios and avenues for further theoretical and experimental explorations.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004224","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143120818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Investigating Mechanisms Driving Differences in the Characteristics of Precipitation in the E3SM Multiscale Modeling Framework With 2D Versus 3D Cloud Resolving Model Configurations","authors":"Wei-Ching Hsu,&nbsp;Gabriel J. Kooperman,&nbsp;Walter M. Hannah","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004274","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004274","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this study, we compare the Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM) multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with the cloud resolving model (CRM) configured in two (2dMMF) and three (3dMMF) dimensions. We explore how CRM dimensionality impacts the representation of mean and extreme precipitation characteristics. Our results show that tropical mean precipitation patterns are better represented in 3dMMF compared to observations (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrivals for GPM and Global Precipitation Climatology Project One Degree Daily products), while 2dMMF better captures extreme precipitation intensity, with systematic land-ocean differences in precipitation and cloud-associated variables. These differences are attributed to the co-occurrence of CRM throttling (i.e., suppressed convection in due to smaller numbers of CRM columns and domain size) and dilution (i.e., 3-D cloud circulations with increased entrainment and lower precipitation efficiency) effects. Overall, throttling results in more low-level humidity in 2dMMF and dilution contributes to more high clouds with less precipitation efficiency in 3dMMF. Since throttling occurs more strongly over the ocean than land, the 3dMMF tends to have less cloud liquid and precipitation over the ocean and more cloud ice and precipitation over land. These results may serve as a guide for choosing the CRM structure to reduce precipitation and cloud-related biases.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004274","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119995","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"External Drivers and Mesoscale Self-Organization of Shallow Cold Pools in the Trade-Wind Regime","authors":"Pouriya Alinaghi,&nbsp;A. Pier Siebesma,&nbsp;Fredrik Jansson,&nbsp;Martin Janssens,&nbsp;Franziska Glassmeier","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004540","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004540","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recent observations of the trade-wind regions highlight the covariability between cold-pool properties and mesoscale cloud organization. Given the covariability of organization with cloud cover and albedo, this suggests a potential impact of cold pools on the cloud radiative effect (CRE). To explore this, we use an ensemble of 103 large-domain, high-resolution, large-eddy simulations and investigate how the variability in cold pools is determined by large-scale external cloud-controlling factors and shaped by processes within the mesoscale. It is demonstrated that the size and frequency of occurrence of cold pools are strongly influenced by the near-surface horizontal wind speed and large-scale subsidence. The temporal evolution of cold pools is strongly correlated with the diurnality in radiation. Even without external variability, we find a strong intermittent behavior in the evolution of cold pools, governed by a complex interplay between cold pools and clouds which expresses itself in the form of shallow squall lines. These squall lines result from precipitating downdrafts, cold pool outflows and the resulting gust fronts, reinforcing parent clouds. Cold pools influence the CRE of trade cumuli, but only when they exist during the day. This emphasizes the importance of the synchronization between cold-pool events and the diurnal cycle of insolation for the dependence of the CRE on cold pools.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004540","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143119317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Bridging the Gap Between Global Weather Prediction and Global Storm-Resolving Simulation: Introducing the GFDL 6.5-km SHiELD","authors":"Linjiong Zhou,&nbsp;Lucas Harris,&nbsp;Jan-Huey Chen,&nbsp;Kun Gao,&nbsp;Kai-Yuan Cheng,&nbsp;Mingjing Tong,&nbsp;Alex Kaltenbaugh,&nbsp;Matthew Morin,&nbsp;Joseph Mouallem,&nbsp;Lauren Chilutti,&nbsp;Lily Johnston","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004430","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We introduce a 6.5-km version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD). This global model is designed to bridge the gap between global medium-range weather prediction and global storm-resolving simulation while remaining practical for real-time forecast. The 6.5-km SHiELD represents a significant advancement over GFDL's flagship global forecast system, the 13-km SHiELD. This global model features a holistically-developed scale-aware suite of physical parameterizations, stepping into the formidable convective “gray zone” of resolutions below 10 km. Comparative analyses with the 13-km SHiELD, conducted over a 3-year hindcast period, highlight noteworthy improvements across global-scale, regional-scale, tropical cyclone (TC), and continental convection predictions. In particular, the 6.5-km SHiELD excels in predicting considerably finer-scale convective systems associated with large-scale frontal systems and extratropical cyclones. The predictions of global temperature, wind, cloud, and precipitation are significantly improved in this global model. Regionally, over the contiguous United States and the Maritime Continent, substantial reductions in prediction biases of precipitation, cloud cover, and wind fields are also found. In the mesoscale realm, the model demonstrates prominent improvements in global TC intensity and continental convective precipitation prediction: biases are relieved, and skill is higher. These findings affirm the superiority of the 6.5-km SHiELD compared to the current 13-km SHiELD, which will advance weather prediction by successfully addressing both synoptic weather systems and specific storm-scale phenomena in the same global model.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"16 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004430","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Averaged Hydrostatic Boussinesq Ocean Equations in Generalized Vertical Coordinates","authors":"Malte F. Jansen,&nbsp;Alistair Adcroft,&nbsp;Stephen M. Griffies,&nbsp;Ian Grooms","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004506","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Due to their limited resolution, numerical ocean models need to be interpreted as representing filtered or averaged equations. How to interpret models in terms of formally averaged equations, however, is not always clear, particularly in the case of hybrid or generalized vertical coordinate models, which limits our ability to interpret the model results and to develop parameterizations for the unresolved eddy contributions. We here derive the averaged hydrostatic Boussinesq equations in generalized vertical coordinates for an arbitrary thickness-weighted average. We then consider various special cases and discuss the extent to which the averaged equations are consistent with existing ocean model formulations. As previously discussed, the momentum equations in existing depth-coordinate models are best interpreted as representing Eulerian averages (i.e., averages taken at fixed depth), while the tracer equations can be interpreted as either Eulerian or thickness-weighted isopycnal averages. Instead we find that no averaging is fully consistent with existing formulations of the parameterizations in semi-Lagrangian discretizations of generalized vertical coordinate ocean models such as MOM6. A coordinate-following average would require “coordinate-aware” parameterizations that can account for the changing nature of the eddy terms as the coordinate changes. Alternatively, the model variables can be interpreted as representing either Eulerian or (thickness-weighted) isopycnal averages, independent of the model coordinate that is being used for the numerical discretization. Existing parameterizations in generalized vertical coordinate models, however, are not always consistent with either of these interpretations, which, respectively, would require a three-dimensional divergence-free eddy tracer advection or a form-stress parameterization in the momentum equations.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"16 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004506","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142861435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}