Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献

{"title":"Non-Monotonic Convective Response to Vertical Wind Shear: A Closer Look From Cloud Resolving Model Simulations","authors":"Yang Tian,&nbsp;Rich Neale,&nbsp;Hugh Morrison","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004859","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004859","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Using a three-dimensional cloud-resolving model, a systematic exploration is undertaken of the response of a radiative-convective equilibrium state to imposed vertical wind shear of varying magnitude. Domain-averaged surface precipitation exhibits a non-monotonic sensitivity to increasing shear magnitude, characterized by a decrease with increasing shear for weakly sheared conditions (&lt;1.5 × 10⁻³ s⁻¹) and an increase under stronger shear (&gt;1.5 × 10⁻³ s⁻¹), with a similar trend in surface heat fluxes. During the first 30–40 min after wind shear is imposed, convective activity and rainfall are suppressed, which is attributed to increased surface drag and reduced boundary layer eddy kinetic energy. As the shear persists over time, it eventually fosters the development of deep convection. An analysis of the condensed water budget shows that the overall response of the domain-mean surface precipitation rate to increasing shear magnitude is mainly explained by changes in condensation rate, which in turn is primarily controlled by the cloudy updraft mass flux. In the lower to middle troposphere where most condensation occurs, cloudy updraft fraction steadily increases with increasing shear magnitude, whereas mean updraft vertical velocity exhibits a general decreasing trend as the shear magnitude increases. The compensating responses of updraft fraction and mean vertical velocity explain the non-monotonic surface precipitation response to vertical wind shear. Vertical shear does not significantly impact the evaporation or precipitation efficiencies.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004859","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Addressing Out-of-Sample Issues in Multi-Layer Convolutional Neural-Network Parameterization of Mesoscale Eddies Applied Near Coastlines","authors":"Cheng Zhang,&nbsp;Pavel Perezhogin,&nbsp;Alistair Adcroft,&nbsp;Laure Zanna","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004819","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study addresses the boundary artifacts in machine-learned (ML) parameterizations for ocean subgrid mesoscale momentum forcing, as identified in the online ML implementation from a previous study (Zhang et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ms003697). We focus on the boundary condition (BC) treatment within the existing convolutional neural network (CNN) models and aim to mitigate the “out-of-sample” errors observed near complex coastal regions without developing new, complex network architectures. Our approach leverages two established strategies for placing BCs in CNN models, namely zero and replicate padding. Offline evaluations revealed that these padding strategies significantly reduce root mean squared error (RMSE) in coastal regions by limiting the dependence on random initialization of weights and restricting the range of out-of-sample predictions. Further online evaluations suggest that replicate padding consistently reduces boundary artifacts across various retrained CNN models. In contrast, zero padding sometimes intensifies artifacts in certain retrained models despite both strategies performing similarly in offline evaluations. This study underscores the need for BC treatments in CNN models trained on open water data when predicting near-coastal subgrid forces in ML parameterizations. The application of replicate padding, in particular, offers a robust strategy to minimize the propagation of extreme values that can contaminate computational models or cause simulations to fail. Our findings provide insights for enhancing the accuracy and stability of ML parameterizations in the online implementation of ocean circulation models with coastlines.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004819","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144117868","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Data-Driven Dynamic Modal Bias Analysis and Correction for Earth System Models","authors":"S. P. McGowan,&nbsp;N. L. Jones,&nbsp;W. S. P. Robertson,&nbsp;S. Balasuriya","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004779","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004779","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Predicting Earth systems weeks or months into the future is an important yet challenging problem due to the high dimensionality, chaotic behavior, and coupled dynamics of the ocean, atmosphere, and other subsystems of the Earth. Numerical models invariably contain model error due to incomplete domain knowledge, limited capabilities of representation, and unresolved processes due to finite spatial resolution. Hybrid modeling, the pairing of a physics-driven model with a data-driven component, has shown promise in outperforming both purely physics-driven and data-driven approaches in predicting complex systems. Here we demonstrate two new hybrid methods that combine uninitialized temporal or spatiotemporal models with a data-driven component that may be modally decomposed to give insight into model bias, or used to correct the bias of model projections. These techniques are demonstrated on a simulated chaotic system and two empirical ocean variables: coastal sea surface elevation and sea surface temperature, which highlight that the inclusion of the data-driven components increases the state accuracy of their short-term evolution. Our work demonstrates that these hybrid approaches may prove valuable for: improving models during model development, creating novel methods for data assimilation, and enhancing the predictive accuracy of forecasts when available models have significant structural error.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004779","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144118167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Quantifying the Resolution Sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch Scheme Across the Gray Zone by Isolating Interactions: A TWP-ICE Case Study","authors":"Ling Zuo,&nbsp;Lijuan Li,&nbsp;William I. Gustafson Jr.,&nbsp;Liping Luo,&nbsp;Yimin Liu,&nbsp;Bin Wang,&nbsp;Yan Nie,&nbsp;Feng Xie,&nbsp;He Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004604","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004604","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The resolution sensitivity of the Kain–Fritsch (KF) convection scheme and the role of interactions between the physics and dynamics within the gray zone (&lt;10 km) were investigated using the Separate Physics and Dynamics Experiment (SPADE) framework. Two groups of experiments were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model via traditional (Tradition) runs and SPADE runs with resolutions of 1, 2, 4, and 8 km during the wet period of the Tropical Warm Pool–International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE). Results show that the KF scheme simulates the weakened convective processes well as the resolution increases in both groups, and the changes in the convective variables with resolution in SPADE are smaller than in the Tradition group. This indicates the important effects of interactions between model components on convection parameterizations as the resolution changes. Additionally, the microphysics variables remain nearly unchanged with resolution in SPADE and weaken slightly in Tradition as the resolution decreases, suggesting the relatively weaker influences of model interactions for the resolved-cloud parameterization. Therefore, the scale-aware behavior of KF scheme is further strengthened in Tradition runs, primarily through inhibiting the strength of stratiform processes through physics–dynamics interactions and physical components.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004604","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144108802","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Notes on Parameterized Energy Pathways in the Ocean: Insights From Stochastic and Deterministic Kinetic Energy Injection","authors":"Ekaterina Bagaeva,&nbsp;Christian L. E. Franzke,&nbsp;Sergey Danilov,&nbsp;Kirthana Vijay,&nbsp;Stephan Juricke","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004513","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004513","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Accurately representing ocean dynamics across interacting scales remains a challenge in numerical modeling. This study examines mesoscale eddy parameterization in eddy-permitting ocean models by incorporating novel stochastic perturbations and comparing them with a well-tested dynamic kinetic energy backscatter scheme. Momentum dissipation through eddy viscosity, a key aspect at such model resolutions, causes excessive dissipation not only at the grid scale but across all scales, including energy-containing ones. This necessitates methods like dynamic backscatter to counteract energy loss and restore variability. Stochastic perturbations provide an alternative by reinjecting energy and capturing small-scale variability. Using a double-gyre FESOM2 configuration, we assess two stochastic forcing schemes, applied with and without dynamic backscatter. The stochastic perturbations are generated using linear inverse modeling based on a high-resolution reference simulation. Both stochastic methods improve simulated dynamics, particularly heat distribution and kinetic energy, though they are less effective at large scales than dynamic backscatter. Contrary to expectations, combining stochastic forcing with dynamic backscatter does not yield substantial improvements. Moreover, none of the schemes significantly enhances mean kinetic energy in the jet region, suggesting unresolved dynamics at this resolution despite increased eddy-kinetic energy (EKE). A comprehensive scale analysis, including kinetic energy production, transfer, dissipation, and spectra, highlights distinct energy pathways. Energy injection by dynamic backscatter directly increases kinetic energy, while stochastic perturbations enhance potential energy conversion and subsequent transfer to EKE. These findings emphasize the need for carefully designed energy injection patterns aligned with flow dynamics to improve parameterizations at eddy-permitting resolutions.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004513","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091951","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Land-Ocean Contrast in Deep Convective Intensity in a Global Storm-Resolving Model","authors":"Tristan H. Abbott,&nbsp;Nadir Jeevanjee,&nbsp;Kai-Yuan Cheng,&nbsp;Linjiong Zhou,&nbsp;Lucas Harris","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004467","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004467","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Observations reveal a clear difference in the intensity of deep convection over tropical land and ocean. This observed land-ocean contrast provides a natural benchmark for evaluating the fidelity of global storm-resolving models (GSRMs; global models with horizontal resolution on the order of kilometers), and GSRMs provide a potentially valuable tool for probing unresolved scientific questions about the origin of the observed land-ocean contrast. However, land-ocean differences in convective intensity have received relatively little attention in GSRM research. Here, we show that the strength of the land-ocean contrast simulated by GSRMs is strongly sensitive to details of GSRM implementations, and not clearly governed by any of several hypothesized drivers of the observed land-ocean contrast. We first examine DYAMOND Summer GSRM simulations, and show that only a subset produce a clear land-ocean contrast in the frequency of strong updrafts. We then show that the use of a sub-grid shallow convection scheme can determine whether or not the GSRM X-SHiELD produces a clear land-ocean contrast. Finally, we show that three putative drivers of the observed land-ocean contrast (convective available potential energy, boundary layer depth, and microphysics) fail to explain why a land-ocean contrast is present in X-SHiELD simulations with sub-grid shallow convection disabled. These results provide encouraging evidence that GSRMs can mimic the observed land-ocean convective intensity contrast. However, they also show that their ability to do so can be sensitive to uncertain sub-grid parameterizations, and suggest that existing theory may not fully capture drivers of the land-ocean contrast simulated by some GSRMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004467","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144085336","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Moist Energy Constraints on Surface Temperature Variance Under Climate Warming","authors":"Bowen Ge,&nbsp;Gang Chen,&nbsp;Jian Lu,&nbsp;Wenyu Zhou","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004612","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004612","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Understanding the factors controlling surface temperature variance is crucial for predicting temperature extremes. Previous investigations have examined individual impacts of temperature advection and surface turbulent fluxes on temperature fluctuations. Here, we explore the constraints on temperature variance from the moist static energy (MSE) balance and introduce a new scaling relation that connects the generation of temperature variance through moist energy transport with its dissipation due to the net energetic forcing of the atmosphere. This theory is evaluated in an idealized aquaplanet model. We find that surface temperature variance is influenced by eddy (sensible) heat flux, MSE gradient, and the Clausius-Clapeyron relation for evaporative cooling. Under global warming, the reduced temperature variance in the aquaplanet model is dominated by the weakening in eddy heat flux, but it is also affected by changes in evaporative cooling and MSE gradient, which may be more important in realistic, moisture-limited regions over land.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004612","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Stochastic GM + E Closure: A Framework for Coupling Stochastic Backscatter With the Gent and McWilliams Parameterization","authors":"I. Grooms,&nbsp;N. Agarwal,&nbsp;G. Marques,&nbsp;P. J. Pegion,&nbsp;H. Yassin","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004560","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) are often used at horizontal resolutions that preclude the appearance of mesoscale eddies. The ocean mesoscale constitutes a significant component of ocean variability, and OGCMs whose resolutions are too coarse to represent the mesoscale are necessarily lacking this variability. In addition to being variable, the ocean mesoscale also induces variability on larger scales that could be resolved on a coarse grid, but coarse OGCMs often lack this variability too. This paper develops a stochastic parameterization that adds small increments to an OGCM's lateral velocity field, which excites natural modes of variability in the model. The rate at which these velocity increments add energy to the flow is tied to the rate at which the Gent-McWilliams parameterization—a popular parameterization of the effect of mesoscale eddies on tracer transport—removes potential energy from the resolved scales. The stochastic parameterization is implemented in a non-eddying OGCM, where it is shown to increase the variability significantly.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004560","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144091805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Transient IDEMIX Model as a Nonorographic Gravity Wave Parameterization in an Atmospheric Circulation Model","authors":"B. Quinn,&nbsp;C. Eden,&nbsp;D. Olbers,&nbsp;G. S. Voelker,&nbsp;U. Achatz","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004121","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Internal wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model presents a novel way of parameterizing internal gravity waves in the atmosphere. Using a continuous full wave spectrum in the energy balance equation and integrating over all vertical wavenumbers and frequencies results in prognostic equations for the energy density of gravity waves in multiple azimuthal compartments. It includes their non-dissipative interaction with the mean flow, allowing for an evolving and local description of momentum flux and gravity wave drag (GWD). A saturation mechanism maintains the wavefield within convective stability limits, and an energetically consistent closure for critical-layer effects controls how much wave flux propagates from the troposphere into the middle atmosphere. IDEMIX can simulate zonal GWD around the mesopause, similar to a traditional gravity wave parameterization and to a state-of-the-art wave ray tracing model in an atmospheric circulation model. In addition, IDEMIX shows a reversal of the GWD around the mesopause region due to interaction with the mean flow there. When compared to empirical model data, IDEMIX captures well the summer hemisphere flow reversal, the cold summer mesospheric pole and the alternate positive and negative structures in the meridional mean flow.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004121","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143950293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evaluation of Flow Routing on the Unstructured Voronoi Meshes in Earth System Modeling","authors":"Chang Liao,&nbsp;Donghui Xu,&nbsp;Matthew G. Cooper,&nbsp;Tian Zhou,&nbsp;Darren Engwirda,&nbsp;Zeli Tan,&nbsp;Gautam Bisht,&nbsp;Hong-Yi Li,&nbsp;Lingcheng Li,&nbsp;Dongyu Feng,&nbsp;L. Ruby Leung","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004737","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Flow routing is a fundamental process of Earth System Models' (ESMs) river component. Traditional flow routing models rely on Cartesian rectangular meshes, which exhibit limitations, particularly when coupled with unstructured mesh-based ocean components. They also lack the support for regionally refined models. While previous studies have highlighted the potential benefits of unstructured meshes for flow routing, their widespread application and comprehensive evaluation within ESMs remain limited. This study extends the river component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model to unstructured Voronoi meshes. We evaluated the model's performance in simulating river discharge and water depth across three watersheds spanning the Arctic, temperate, and tropical regions. The results show that while providing several benefits, unstructured mesh-based flow routing can achieve comparable performance to structured mesh-based routing, and their difference is often less than <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mn>10</mn>\u0000 <mi>%</mi>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> $10%$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>. Although the unstructured mesh-based method could address several existing limitations, this research also shows that additional improvements in the numerical method are needed to fully exploit the advantages of unstructured mesh for hydrologic and ESMs.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004737","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143944648","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}