Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献

{"title":"The Rapid Transition From Shallow to Precipitating Convection as a Predator–Prey Process","authors":"Cristian V. Vraciu,&nbsp;Julien Savre,&nbsp;Maxime Colin","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004630","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004630","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Properly predicting the rapid transition from shallow to precipitating atmospheric convection within a diurnal cycle over land is of great importance for both weather prediction and climate projections. In this work, we consider that a cumulus cloud is formed due to the transport of water mass by multiple updrafts during its lifetime. Cumulus clouds then locally create favorable conditions for the subsequent convective updrafts to reach higher altitudes, leading to deeper precipitating convection. This mechanism is amplified by the cold pools formed by the evaporation of precipitation in the sub-cloud layer. Based on this conceptual view of cloud–cloud interactions which goes beyond the one cloud equals one–plume picture, it is argued that precipitating clouds may act as predators that prey on the total cloud population, such that the rapid shallow–to–deep transition can be modeled as a simple predator–prey system. This conceptual model is validated by comparing solutions of the Lotka-Volterra system of equations to results obtained using a high-resolution large-eddy simulation model. Moreover, we argue that the complete diurnal cycle of deep convection can be seen as a predator–prey system with varying food supply for the prey. Finally, we suggest that based on the present conceptual model, new unified cloud-convection parameterizations can be designed which may lead to improved representations of the transition from shallow to precipitating continental convection.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004630","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143397057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Influence of Parameterized Shallow Convection on Trade-Wind Clouds and Circulations in the HARMONIE-AROME Mesoscale Model","authors":"A. C. M. Savazzi,&nbsp;L. Nuijens,&nbsp;W. de Rooy,&nbsp;A. P. Siebesma","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004538","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004538","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models currently operate at kilometer-scale and even sub-kilometer-scale resolutions. Although shallow cumulus convection is partly resolved at these resolutions, it is still common to use a shallow cumulus parameterization (SCP). Within the context of the EUREC4A model intercomparison project, we evaluate how the modeled mesoscale cloud field in the trades responds to parameterized or explicit shallow convection in the mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME. We simulate a region of 3,200 × 2,025 <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mtext>km</mtext>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${text{km}}^{2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> east of Barbados using a grid spacing of 2.5 km for a 2 months period (1 January to 29 February 2020). We compare three configurations of HARMONIE-AROME: (a) one with an active SCP (control), (b) one without parameterized momentum transport by shallow convection, and (c) one with an inactive SCP. The experiments produce different responses in the cloud field that are not incremental. With the SCP inactive, the model produces a warmer lower troposphere with many smaller but deeper clouds that precipitate more. Along with stronger resolved eddy kinetic energy, wider and stronger shallow meridional overturning circulations develop. In the configuration without parameterized momentum transport by shallow convection, the eddy-diffusivity scheme effectively takes over the missing transport in the sub-cloud layer up to <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${sim} $</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> 800 m. Above that level, horizontal wind variance increases as the total momentum flux decreases, enhancing eddy kinetic energy at scales of 2.5 km and larger. In contrast to the configuration with an inactive SCP, cloud top heights hardly deepen, but stratiform cloudiness below the inversion and mean cloud size increase.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004538","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sink Assessment Model Considering Forest Age Dynamics (CEVSA-AgeD)","authors":"Mengyu Zhang,&nbsp;Honglin He,&nbsp;Li Zhang,&nbsp;Guirui Yu,&nbsp;Xiaoli Ren,&nbsp;Yuanyuan Huang,&nbsp;Wenping Yuan,&nbsp;Zhong'en Niu","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004575","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The large variation in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) with forest age was dominated by the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP)–which in turn was determined by the different response slopes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and autotrophic respiration (Ra) with forest age. However, only few models can comprehensively represent the impacts of forest age and global changes including land-use change, climate change, nitrogen deposition, and atmospheric CO₂ from the perspective of ecological processes. Based on a process-based model (CEVSA-ES) that included these global changes, we developed an ecosystem carbon sink assessment model considering forest age dynamics (CEVSA-AgeD) using satellite-based relationships between GPP (or Ra) and forest age to constrain photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration processes. Subsequently, we used a model data-fusion framework combined with carbon flux observations to calibrate the model. The calibrated CEVSA-AgeD model performed well in simulating seasonal (R² values for GPP, ecosystem respiration, and NEP were 0.86, 0.79, and 0.66, respectively) and annual carbon flux changes (R² of GPP, ecosystem respiration, and NEP were 0.83, 0.77, and 0.67, respectively). The magnitude of average NEP in China estimated using this model was 0.35 ± 0.005 TgC/yr from 2001 to 2021, which was close to previous estimates, and the dynamics of forests age increased NEP by 87–92 TgC/yr. These results indicate that the CEVSA-AgeD model performed well in simulating carbon fluxes at the site and regional scales and that it was necessary to incorporate the effect of forest age dynamics on carbon cycling processes into process-based models.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004575","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Predicting the Evolution of Shallow Cumulus Clouds With a Lotka-Volterra Like Model","authors":"Jingyi Chen,&nbsp;Samson Hagos,&nbsp;Jerome Fast,&nbsp;Zhe Feng","doi":"10.1029/2023MS003739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003739","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In numerical weather prediction and climate models, boundary-layer clouds are controlled by a wide range of subgrid-scale processes. However, understanding the nature of these processes and their role in the evolution of the cloud size distribution as a whole has been elusive. To address this issue, we adopt a novel empirical framework from the field of population dynamics to model the evolution of cloud size statistics by using the shallow cumulus properties obtained from a large-eddy simulation (LES). Our approach involves representing the cloud size distribution and the total cloud area using a revised Lotka-Volterra model and ridge linear model, respectively. The physical interpretation of the total cloud area and coefficients obtained from the optimization of the models reveals three stages probably interpreted by dominant processes: the formation of new clouds, the growth of single clouds, and a steady state with organized transitions involving the growth and decay of multiple clouds. Furthermore, we showcase the potential of this framework to serve as a component of scale-aware parameterizations of shallow-convective clouds in atmospheric models.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS003739","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143389008","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Ensemble-Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States","authors":"Hongxiang Yan,&nbsp;Ning Sun,&nbsp;Hisham Eldardiry,&nbsp;Travis Thurber,&nbsp;Patrick Reed,&nbsp;Daniel Kennedy,&nbsp;Sean Swenson,&nbsp;Jennie Rice","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004227","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004227","url":null,"abstract":"<p>One of the major challenges in large-domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large-scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long-term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large-sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004227","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143362517","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sensitivities of Large Eddy Simulations of Aerosol Plume Transport and Cloud Response","authors":"Chandru Dhandapani,&nbsp;Colleen M. Kaul,&nbsp;Kyle G. Pressel,&nbsp;Peter N. Blossey,&nbsp;Robert Wood,&nbsp;Gourihar Kulkarni","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004546","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Cloud responses to surface-based sources of aerosol perturbation partially depend on how turbulent transport of the aerosol to cloud base affects the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol. Here, scenarios of plume injection below a marine stratocumulus cloud are modeled using large eddy simulations coupled to a prognostic bulk aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme. Both passive plumes, consisting of an inert tracer, and active plumes are investigated, where the latter are representative of saltwater droplet plumes such as have been proposed for marine cloud brightening. Passive plume scenarios show higher in-plume cloud brightness (relative to out-of-plume) due to the predominant transport of the passive plume tracer from the near-surface to the cloud layer within updrafts. These updrafts rise into brighter areas within the cloud deck, even in the absence of an aerosol perturbation associated with an active plume. Comparing albedo at in-plume to out-of-plume locations associates the inert plume with the brightest cloud locations, without any causal effect of the plume on the cloud. Numerical sensitivities are first assessed to establish a suitable model configuration. Then sensitivity to particle injection rate is investigated. Trade-offs are identified between the number of injected particles and the suppressive effect of droplet evaporation on plume loft and spread. Furthermore, as the near-field in-plume brightening effect does not depend significantly on injection rate given a suitable definition of perturbed versus unperturbed regions of the flow, plume area is a key controlling factor on the overall cloud brightening effect of an aerosol perturbation.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004546","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143186346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Experimental Soil Warming Impacts Soil Moisture and Plant Water Stress and Thereby Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics","authors":"W. J. Riley,&nbsp;J. Tao,&nbsp;Z. A. Mekonnen,&nbsp;R. F. Grant,&nbsp;E. L. Brodie,&nbsp;E. Pegoraro,&nbsp;M. S. Torn","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004714","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004714","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Experimental soil heating experiments have found a consistent increase in soil-surface CO₂ emissions (<i>F</i>_<i>s</i>), but inconsistent soil organic carbon (SOC) responses. Interpretation of heating effects is complicated by spatial heterogeneity and soil moisture, nitrogen availability, and microbial and plant responses. Here we applied a mechanistic ecosystem model to interpret heating impacts on a California forest subjected to 1 m deep, 4°C heating. The model accurately simulated control-plot CO₂ fluxes, SOC stocks, fine root biomass, soil moisture, and soil temperature, and the observed increases in <i>F</i>_<i>s</i> and decreases in fine root biomass. We show that a complex suite of interactions can lead to a consistent increase in <i>F</i>_<i>s</i> (∼17%) over the 5-year study period, with very small changes in SOC stocks (&lt;1%). Modeled increases in leaf water stress from soil drying reduced GPP and NPP. The resulting reduction in leaf and fine root allocation increased fine root litter inputs to the soil and reduced root exudation. Soil heating led to about a 50% larger increase in root autotrophic respiration than in heterotrophic respiration, with the heating effect on both these fluxes decreasing over the simulation period. Increased heterotrophic respiration led to increased soil N availability and plant N uptake. These heating responses are mechanistically linked, of magnitudes that can affect ecosystem dynamics, and long-term observations of them are rarely made. Therefore, we conclude that a coupled observational and mechanistic modeling framework is needed to interpret manipulation experiments, and to improve projections of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004714","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143186347","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"ELM-Wet: Inclusion of a Wet-Landunit With Sub-Grid Representation of Eco-Hydrological Patches and Hydrological Forcing Improves Methane Emission Estimations in the E3SM Land Model (ELM)","authors":"Theresia Yazbeck,&nbsp;Gil Bohrer,&nbsp;Madeline E. Scyphers,&nbsp;Justine E. C. Missik,&nbsp;Oleksandr Shchehlov,&nbsp;Eric J. Ward,&nbsp;Sergio L. Merino,&nbsp;Robert Bordelon,&nbsp;Diana Taj,&nbsp;Jorge A. Villa,&nbsp;Kelly Wrighton,&nbsp;Qing Zhu,&nbsp;William J. Riley","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004396","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004396","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wetlands are the largest emitters of biogenic methane (CH₄) and represent the highest source of uncertainty in global CH₄ budgets. Here, we aim to improve the realism of wetland representation in the U.S. Department of Energy's Exascale Earth System Model land surface model, ELM, thereby reducing uncertainty of CH₄ flux predictions. We develop an updated version, ELM-Wet, where we activate a separate landunit for wetlands that handles multiple wetland-specific eco-hydrological patch functional types. We introduce more realistic hydrological forcing through prescribing site-level constraints on surface water elevation, which allows resolving different sustained inundation depth for different patches, and if data exists, prescribing inundation depth. We modified the calculation of aerenchyma transport diffusivity based on observed conductance per leaf area for different vegetation types. We use Bayesian Optimization to parameterize CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes in the developed wet-landunit. Site-level simulations of a coastal non-tidal freshwater wetland in Louisiana were performed with the updated model. Eddy covariance observations of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes from 2012 to 2013 were used to train the model and data from 2021 were used for validation. Patch-specific chamber flux observations and observations of CH₄ concentration profiles in the soil porewater from 2021 were used for evaluation of the model performance. Our results show that ELM-Wet reduces the model's CH₄ emission root mean squared error by up to 33% and is able to represent inter-daily CO₂ and CH₄ flux variability across the wetland's eco-hydrological patches, including during periods of extreme dry or wet conditions.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004396","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"LEMDA: A Lagrangian-Eulerian Multiscale Data Assimilation Framework","authors":"Quanling Deng,&nbsp;Nan Chen,&nbsp;Samuel N. Stechmann,&nbsp;Jiuhua Hu","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004259","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004259","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Lagrangian trajectories are widely used as observations for recovering the underlying flow field via Lagrangian data assimilation (DA). However, the strong nonlinearity in the observational process and the high dimensionality of the problems often cause challenges in applying standard Lagrangian DA. In this paper, a Lagrangian-Eulerian multiscale DA (LEMDA) framework is developed. It starts with exploiting the Boltzmann kinetic description of the particle dynamics to derive a set of continuum equations, which characterize the statistical quantities of particle motions at fixed grids and serve as Eulerian observations. Despite the nonlinearity in the continuum equations and the processes of Lagrangian observations, the time evolution of the posterior distribution from LEMDA can be written down using closed analytic formulas after applying the stochastic surrogate model to describe the flow field. This offers an exact and efficient way of carrying out DA, which avoids using ensemble approximations and the associated tunings. The analytically solvable properties also facilitate the derivation of an effective reduced-order Lagrangian DA scheme that further enhances computational efficiency. The Lagrangian DA part within the framework has advantages when a moderate number of particles is used, while the Eulerian DA part can effectively save computational costs when the number of particle observations becomes large. The Eulerian DA part is also valuable when particles collide, such as using sea ice floe trajectories as observations. LEMDA naturally applies to multiscale turbulent flow fields, where the Eulerian DA part recovers the large-scale structures, and the Lagrangian DA part efficiently resolves the small-scale features in each grid cell via parallel computing. Numerical experiments demonstrate the skillful results of LEMDA and its two components.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004259","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143110751","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Development of a Data-Driven Lightning Scheme for Implementation in Global Climate Models","authors":"Vincent Verjans,&nbsp;Christian L. E. Franzke","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004464","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004464","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;This study proposes a new lightning scheme applicable at the global scale, predicting lightning rates from climatic variables. Using satellite lightning records spanning a period of 29 years, we apply machine learning methods to derive a functional relationship between lightning and climate reanalysis data. In particular, we design a tree-based regression scheme, representing different lightning regimes with separate single hidden layer neural networks of low dimensionality. We apply multiple complexity constraints in the development stages, which makes our lightning scheme straightforward to implement within global climate models (GCMs). We demonstrate that, for years not used for training, our lightning scheme captures &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;71.8&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;%&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $71.8%$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; of the daily global spatio-temporal lightning variability, which corresponds to a &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;&gt;&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;43&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;%&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; ${ &gt;} 43%$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt; relative improvement compared to well-established lightning schemes. Similarly, the scheme correlates well with lightning observations for the monthly climatology &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;&gt;&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.92&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(r &gt; 0.92)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, inter-annual variability &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;&gt;&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.76&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(r &gt; 0.76)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;, and latitudinal and longitudinal distributions &lt;span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;math&gt;\u0000 &lt;semantics&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;(&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mi&gt;r&lt;/mi&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;&gt;&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;mn&gt;0.87&lt;/mn&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;mo&gt;)&lt;/mo&gt;\u0000 &lt;/mrow&gt;\u0000 &lt;annotation&gt; $(r &gt; 0.87)$&lt;/annotation&gt;\u0000 &lt;/semantics&gt;&lt;/math&gt;. Most notably, the lightning scheme brings a critical improvement in representing lightning magnitude and variability in the thre","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004464","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143121207","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}