Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献_第10页

Bringing Statistics to Storylines: Rare Event Sampling for Sudden, Transient Extreme Events 为故事情节提供统计数据：针对突发、瞬时极端事件的罕见事件采样

IF 4.4 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1029/2024MS004264

Justin Finkel, Paul A. O’Gorman

{"title":"Bringing Statistics to Storylines: Rare Event Sampling for Sudden, Transient Extreme Events","authors":"Justin Finkel, Paul A. O’Gorman","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004264","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004264","url":null,"abstract":"A leading goal for climate science and weather risk management is to accurately model both the physics and statistics of extreme events. These two goals are fundamentally at odds: the higher a computational model's resolution, the more expensive are the ensembles needed to capture accurate statistics in the tail of the distribution. Here, we focus on events that are localized in space and time, such as heavy precipitation events, which can start suddenly and decay rapidly. We advance a method for sampling such events more efficiently than straightforward climate model simulation. Our method combines elements of two existing approaches: adaptive multilevel splitting (AMS), a rare event algorithm that generates rigorous statistics but fails to enhance the sampling of sudden, transient extremes; and “ensemble boosting,” which generates physically plausible storylines of these events but not their statistics. We modify AMS by splitting trajectories well in advance of the event's onset, following the approach of ensemble boosting. Early splitting requires a rejection step that reduces efficiency, but it is critical for amplifying and diversifying simulated events in tests with the Lorenz-96 model, for which we demonstrate improved sampling of extreme local energy fluctuations by approximately a factor of 10 relative to direct sampling. Our method is related to previous algorithms, including subset simulation and anticipated AMS, but is distinctly tailored to handle bursting events caused by chaotic traveling waves. Our work makes progress toward the goal of efficiently sampling such transient local extremes in atmospheric models.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2024-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004264","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141435645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Assessment of Gravity Waves From Tropopause to Thermosphere and Ionosphere in High-Resolution WACCM-X Simulations 评估高分辨率 WACCM-X 模拟中从对流层顶到热层和电离层的重力波

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004024

H.-L. Liu, P. H. Lauritzen, F. Vitt, S. Goldhaber

{"title":"Assessment of Gravity Waves From Tropopause to Thermosphere and Ionosphere in High-Resolution WACCM-X Simulations","authors":"H.-L. Liu, P. H. Lauritzen, F. Vitt, S. Goldhaber","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004024","url":null,"abstract":"A new version of NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere/ionosphere extension (WACCM-X) has been developed. The main feature of this version is the species-dependent spectral element (SE) dynamical core solved on a cubed sphere grid, eliminating the polar singularity and enabling simulations at high-resolutions. Molecular viscosity and diffusion in the horizontal direction are also included. The Conservative Semi-Lagrangian Multi-Tracer Transport Scheme (CSLAM) is employed for the species transport. An efficient regridding scheme based on the Earth System Modeling Framework is used to map fields between the physics mesh and geomagnetic grid. Simulations have been performed at coarse (∼200 km and 0.25 scale height) and high (∼25 km and 0.1 scale height) resolutions. Spatial distribution of the resolved gravity waves from the high-resolution simulations compares well with available observations in the middle and upper atmosphere. Analysis of the scale dependence of the gravity wave energy density and momentum flux shows that, while larger scale waves are dominant energetically at most latitudes, smaller scale waves contribute significantly to the total momentum flux, especially at mid-high latitudes. The waves in the thermosphere are shown to be strongly modulated by the large-scale wind through Doppler shift and molecular damping, and they cause large neutral atmosphere and plasma perturbations.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004024","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141430238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Critical Role of Vertical Radiative Cooling Contrast in Triggering Episodic Deluges in Small-Domain Hothouse Climates 垂直辐射冷却对比在触发小域暖房气候中的偶发性骤降中的关键作用

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003912

Xinyi Song, Dorian S. Abbot, Jun Yang

{"title":"Critical Role of Vertical Radiative Cooling Contrast in Triggering Episodic Deluges in Small-Domain Hothouse Climates","authors":"Xinyi Song, Dorian S. Abbot, Jun Yang","doi":"10.1029/2023MS003912","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003912","url":null,"abstract":"Seeley and Wordsworth (2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03919-z) showed that in small-domain cloud-resolving simulations the temporal pattern of precipitation transforms in extremely hot climates (≥320 K) from quasi-steady to organized episodic deluges, with outbursts of heavy rain alternating with several dry days. They proposed a mechanism for this transition involving increased water vapor greenhouse effect and solar radiation absorption leading to net lower-tropospheric radiative heating. This heating inhibits lower-tropospheric convection and decouples the boundary layer from the upper troposphere during the dry phase, allowing lower-tropospheric moist static energy to build until it discharges, resulting in a deluge. We perform cloud-resolving simulations in polar night and show that the same transition occurs, implying that some revision of their mechanism is necessary. We perform further tests to show that episodic deluges can occur even if the lower-tropospheric radiative heating rate is negative, as long as the magnitude of the upper-tropospheric radiative cooling is about twice as large. We find that in the episodic deluge regime the period can be predicted from the time for radiation and reevaporation to cool the lower atmosphere.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS003912","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141430237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

WeatherBench 2: A Benchmark for the Next Generation of Data-Driven Global Weather Models WeatherBench 2：下一代数据驱动型全球天气模式的基准

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004019

Stephan Rasp, Stephan Hoyer, Alexander Merose, Ian Langmore, Peter Battaglia, Tyler Russell, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Vivian Yang, Rob Carver, Shreya Agrawal, Matthew Chantry, Zied Ben Bouallegue, Peter Dueben, Carla Bromberg, Jared Sisk, Luke Barrington, Aaron Bell, Fei Sha

{"title":"WeatherBench 2: A Benchmark for the Next Generation of Data-Driven Global Weather Models","authors":"Stephan Rasp, Stephan Hoyer, Alexander Merose, Ian Langmore, Peter Battaglia, Tyler Russell, Alvaro Sanchez-Gonzalez, Vivian Yang, Rob Carver, Shreya Agrawal, Matthew Chantry, Zied Ben Bouallegue, Peter Dueben, Carla Bromberg, Jared Sisk, Luke Barrington, Aaron Bell, Fei Sha","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004019","url":null,"abstract":"WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1–14 days) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by (Rasp et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002203), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004019","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141424841","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Zeitlin Truncation of a Shallow Water Quasi-Geostrophic Model for Planetary Flow 齐特林截断行星流浅水准地转模型

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003901

A. D. Franken, M. Caliaro, P. Cifani, B. J. Geurts

{"title":"Zeitlin Truncation of a Shallow Water Quasi-Geostrophic Model for Planetary Flow","authors":"A. D. Franken, M. Caliaro, P. Cifani, B. J. Geurts","doi":"10.1029/2023MS003901","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003901","url":null,"abstract":"In this work, we consider a Shallow-Water Quasi Geostrophic equation on the sphere, as a model for global large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This equation, previously studied by Verkley (2009, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jas2837.1) and Schubert et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.3894/james.2009.1.2), possesses a rich geometric structure, called Lie-Poisson, and admits an infinite number of conserved quantities, called Casimirs. In this paper, we develop a Casimir preserving numerical method for long-time simulations of this equation. The method develops in two steps: first, we construct an N-dimensional Lie-Poisson system that converges to the continuous one in the limit N → ∞; second, we integrate in time the finite-dimensional system using an isospectral time integrator, developed by Modin and Viviani (2020, https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2019.944). We demonstrate the efficacy of this computational method by simulating a flow on the entire sphere for different values of the Lamb parameter. We particularly focus on rotation-induced effects, such as the formation of jets. In agreement with shallow water models of the atmosphere, we observe the formation of robust latitudinal jets and a decrease in the zonal wind amplitude with latitude. Furthermore, spectra of the kinetic energy are computed as a point of reference for future studies.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS003901","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141329410","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Inversion of Sea Surface Currents From Satellite-Derived SST-SSH Synergies With 4DVarNets 利用卫星获取的 SST-SSH 与 4DVarNets 的协同作用反演海面洋流

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003609

R. Fablet, B. Chapron, J. Le Sommer, F. Sévellec

{"title":"Inversion of Sea Surface Currents From Satellite-Derived SST-SSH Synergies With 4DVarNets","authors":"R. Fablet, B. Chapron, J. Le Sommer, F. Sévellec","doi":"10.1029/2023MS003609","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003609","url":null,"abstract":"Satellite altimetry offers a unique approach for direct sea surface current observation, but it is limited to measuring the surface-constrained geostrophic component. Ageostrophic dynamics, prevalent at horizontal scales below 100 km and time scales below 10 days, are often underestimated by ocean reanalyzes employing data assimilation schemes. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel deep learning scheme, rooted in a variational data assimilation formulation with trainable observations and a priori terms, that harnesses the synergies between satellite-derived sea surface observations, namely sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST), to enhance sea surface current reconstruction. Numerical experiments, conducted using realistic simulations, in a case study area of the Gulf Stream, demonstrate the potential of the proposed scheme to capture ageostrophic dynamics at time scales of 2.5–3.0 days and horizontal scales of 0.5°–0.7°. The analysis of diverse observation configurations, encompassing nadir along-track altimetry, wide-swath SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) altimetry, and SST data, highlights the pivotal role of SST features in retrieving a significant portion of the ageostrophic dynamics (approximately 47%). These findings underscore the potential of deep learning and 4DVarNet schemes in improving ocean reanalyzes and enhancing our understanding of ocean dynamics.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS003609","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141329412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Moisture Dependence of an African Easterly Wave Within the West African Monsoon System 西非季风系统中非洲东风浪潮的水汽依赖性

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004070

K. M. Núñez Ocasio, C. A. Davis, Z. L. Moon, Q. A. Lawton

{"title":"Moisture Dependence of an African Easterly Wave Within the West African Monsoon System","authors":"K. M. Núñez Ocasio, C. A. Davis, Z. L. Moon, Q. A. Lawton","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004070","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004070","url":null,"abstract":"The growth and propagation of African easterly waves (AEWs) remains an active area of research, especially for those that become tropical cyclones (TCs). This is partly due to the complex role of moisture, realized through AEW-convection interactions. The goal of this study is to understand how environmental moisture plays a role in influencing the growth and propagation of a case of an AEW-convection system, that became a TC and how that role relates to the West African Monsoon System. Moisture sensitivity experiments were performed in a regional and convection-permitting novel configuration. It is found that in a moister environment, diabatic heating associated with convection coupled to the wave is shallower, ultimately, weakening the wave amplitude. Energetics are reduced in a moister environment as the African easterly jet strengthens, yet narrows, and shifts northward limiting interaction with the monsoon and the wave-convection system. The more intense monsoonal flow in a moister environment can instigate the decoupling between convection and AEW as deep convection is more likely in the ridge rather than in the trough region. Over western Africa, more continuous rainfall over the Guinea Highlands can inhibit phase locking with the AEW. In a moister environment, the mean zonal flow is weaker and as a result, the westward translation speed of the wave due to mean flow advection is slower than in the other experiments. While the mean flow advection dominates the translation, further differences in phase speed arise from differences in convection within the wave.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004070","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141329411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global Optimization of Soil Texture Maps From Satellite-Observed Soil Moisture Drydowns and Its Implementation in Noah-MP Land Surface Model 根据卫星观测到的土壤水分干缩量绘制土壤纹理图的全球优化及其在 Noah-MP 陆面模型中的应用

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004142

Qing He, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Taikan Oki, Jianhong Zhou, Long Zhao, Panpan Yao, Jie He, Aihui Wang, Yawei Xu

{"title":"Global Optimization of Soil Texture Maps From Satellite-Observed Soil Moisture Drydowns and Its Implementation in Noah-MP Land Surface Model","authors":"Qing He, Hui Lu, Kun Yang, Taikan Oki, Jianhong Zhou, Long Zhao, Panpan Yao, Jie He, Aihui Wang, Yawei Xu","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004142","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004142","url":null,"abstract":"Soil moisture (SM) plays an important role in regulating regional weather and climate. However, the simulations of SM in current land surface models (LSMs) contain large biases and model spreads. One primary reason contributing to such model biases could be the misrepresentation of soil texture in LSMs, since current available large-scale soil texture data are often generated from extrapolation algorithm based on a scarce number of in-situ geological measurements. Fortunately, recent advancements in satellite technology provide a unique opportunity to constrain the soil texture data sets by introducing observed information at large spatial scales. Here, two major soil texture baseline data sets (Global Soil Data sets for Earth system science, GSDE and Harmonized World Soil Data from Food and Agriculture Organization, HWSD) are optimized with satellite-estimated soil hydraulic parameters. The optimized soil maps show increased (decreased) sand (clay) content over arid regions. The soil organic carbon (SOC) content increases globally especially over regions with dense vegetation cover. The optimized soil texture data sets are then used to run simulations in one example LSM, that is, Noah LSM with Multiple Parameters. Results show that the simulated SM with satellite-optimized soil texture maps is improved at both grid and in-situ scales. Intercase comparison analyses show the SM improvement differs between simulations using different soil maps and soil hydraulic schemes. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating observation-oriented calibration on soil texture in current LSMs. This study also joins the call for a better soil profile representation in the next generation of Earth System Models (ESMs).","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004142","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141326673","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Adaptive Covariance Hybridization for the Assimilation of SST Observations Within a Coupled Earth System Reanalysis 在耦合地球系统再分析中采用自适应协方差混合法同化 SST 观测数据

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS003888

Sébastien Barthélémy, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang

{"title":"Adaptive Covariance Hybridization for the Assimilation of SST Observations Within a Coupled Earth System Reanalysis","authors":"Sébastien Barthélémy, François Counillon, Yiguo Wang","doi":"10.1029/2023MS003888","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003888","url":null,"abstract":"Ensemble data assimilation methods, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), are well suited for climate reanalysis because they feature flow-dependent covariance. However, because Earth System Models are heavy computationally, the method uses a few tens of members. Sampling error in the covariance matrix can introduce biases in the deep ocean, which may cause a drift in the reanalysis and in the predictions. Here, we assess the potential of the hybrid covariance approach (EnKF-OI) to counteract sampling error. The EnKF-OI combines the flow-dependent covariance computed from a dynamical ensemble with another covariance matrix that is static but less prone to sampling error. We test the method within the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model, which combines the Norwegian Earth System Model and the EnKF. We test the performance of the reanalyzes in an idealized twin experiment, where we assimilate synthetic sea surface temperature observations monthly over 1980–2010. The dynamical and static ensembles consist respectively of 30 members and 315 seasonal members sampled from a pre-industrial run. We compare the performance of the EnKF to an EnKF-OI with a global hybrid coefficient, referred to as standard hybrid, and an EnKF-OI with adaptive hybrid coefficients estimated in space and time. Both hybrid covariance methods cure the bias introduced by the EnKF at intermediate and deep water. The adaptive EnKF-OI performs best overall by addressing sampling noise and rank deficiencies issues and can sustain low analysis errors by doing smaller updates than the standard hybrid version.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS003888","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141326699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Understanding Disturbance Regimes From Patterns in Modeled Forest Biomass 从模拟森林生物量的模式了解干扰机制

IF 6.8 2区地球科学

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Pub Date : 2024-06-14 DOI: 10.1029/2023MS004099

Siyuan Wang, Hui Yang, Sujan Koirala, Matthias Forkel, Markus Reichstein, Nuno Carvalhais

{"title":"Understanding Disturbance Regimes From Patterns in Modeled Forest Biomass","authors":"Siyuan Wang, Hui Yang, Sujan Koirala, Matthias Forkel, Markus Reichstein, Nuno Carvalhais","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004099","url":null,"abstract":"Natural and anthropogenic disturbances are important drivers of tree mortality, shaping the structure, composition, and biomass distribution of forest ecosystems. Differences in disturbance regimes, characterized by the frequency, extent, and intensity of disturbance events, result in structurally different landscapes. In this study, we design a model-based experiment to investigate the links between disturbance regimes and spatial biomass patterns. First, the effects of disturbance events on biomass patterns are simulated using a simple dynamic carbon cycle model based on different disturbance regime attributes, which are characterized via three parameters: μ (probability scale), α (clustering degree), and β (intensity slope). 856,800 dynamically stable biomass patterns were then simulated using combined disturbance regime, primary productivity, and background mortality. As independent variables, we use biomass synthesis statistics from simulated biomass patterns to retrieve three disturbance regime parameters. Results show confident inversion of all three “true” disturbance parameters, with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 94.8% for μ, 94.9% for α, and 97.1% for β. Biomass histogram statistics primarily dominate the prediction of μ and β, while texture features have a more substantial influence on α. Overall, these results demonstrate the association between biomass patterns and disturbance regimes. Given the increasing availability of Earth observation of biomass, our findings open a new avenue to understand better and parameterize disturbance regimes and their links with vegetation dynamics under climate change. Ultimately, at a large scale, this approach would improve our current understanding of controls and feedback at the biosphere-atmosphere interface in the present Earth system models.","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.8,"publicationDate":"2024-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004099","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141326675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0