Hyperbolicity and Southern Hemisphere Persistent Synoptic Events

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Andrew R. Axelsen, Terence J. O’Kane, Courtney R. Quinn, Andrew P. Bassom
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Predicting the occurrence of coherent blocking structures in synoptic weather systems remains a challenging problem that has taxed the numerical weather prediction community for decades. The underlying factor behind this difficulty is the so-called “loss of hyperbolicity” known to be linked with the alignment of dynamical vectors characterizing the growth and decay of flow instabilities. We introduce measures that utilize the close link between hyperbolicity, the alignment of Lyapunov vectors, and their associated growth and decay rates to characterize the dynamics of persistent synoptic events in the mid-troposphere of the Southern Hemisphere. These measures reveal a general loss of hyperbolicity that typically occurs during onset and decay of a given event, and a gain of hyperbolicity during the persistent mature phase. Facilitating this analysis in a high-dimensional system first requires the extraction of the relevant observed coherent structures, and the generation of a reduced-order model for constructing the tangent space necessary for dynamical analysis. We achieve this through the combination of principal component analysis and a non-parametric, temporally regularized, vector auto-regressive clustering method. Analysis of the primary blocking sectors reveals hyperbolic dynamics that are consistent between metastable states and whose dynamics span the tangent subspace defined by the leading physical modes. We show that these diverse synoptic features are manifest via common spatially dependent attractors as determined by tangent space dynamics. Our results are not only important for dynamical approaches applicable to high-dimensional multi-scale systems, but are also relevant for the development of modern operational ensemble numerical weather prediction systems.

Abstract Image

双曲线与南半球持续天气事件
预测天气系统中相干阻塞结构的发生仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题,几十年来一直困扰着数值天气预报界。这种困难背后的潜在因素是所谓的“双曲性损失”,已知与表征流动不稳定性增长和衰减的动态向量的对齐有关。我们介绍了利用双曲度、李亚普诺夫向量对齐及其相关增长和衰减率之间的密切联系来表征南半球对流层中部持续天气事件的动力学的措施。这些测量揭示了通常发生在给定事件的开始和衰减期间的双曲度的一般损失,以及在持续成熟阶段的双曲度的增加。为了在高维系统中进行这种分析,首先需要提取相关的观察到的相干结构,并生成用于构建动力学分析所需的切空间的降阶模型。我们通过结合主成分分析和非参数、时间正则化、向量自回归聚类方法来实现这一点。对主要阻塞扇区的分析揭示了在亚稳态之间一致的双曲动力学,其动力学跨越了由主要物理模式定义的切线子空间。我们表明,这些不同的天气特征是通过由切空间动力学决定的共同的空间相关吸引子表现出来的。我们的研究结果不仅对高维多尺度系统的动力学方法具有重要意义,而且对现代业务集合数值天气预报系统的发展也具有重要意义。
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来源期刊
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
11.80%
发文量
241
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES) is committed to advancing the science of Earth systems modeling by offering high-quality scientific research through online availability and open access licensing. JAMES invites authors and readers from the international Earth systems modeling community. Open access. Articles are available free of charge for everyone with Internet access to view and download. Formal peer review. Supplemental material, such as code samples, images, and visualizations, is published at no additional charge. No additional charge for color figures. Modest page charges to cover production costs. Articles published in high-quality full text PDF, HTML, and XML. Internal and external reference linking, DOI registration, and forward linking via CrossRef.
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