Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems最新文献

{"title":"Impacts of DMS Emissions and Chemistry on E3SMv2 Simulated Cloud Droplet Numbers and Aerosol Concentrations Over the Southern Ocean","authors":"Litai Kang,&nbsp;Roger Marchand,&nbsp;Po-Lun Ma,&nbsp;Meng Huang,&nbsp;Robert Wood,&nbsp;Ursula Jongebloed,&nbsp;Becky Alexander","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004683","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004683","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The accurate representation of cloud droplet number concentration (N_d) is crucial for predicting future climate. However, models often underestimate N_d over the Southern Ocean (SO), where natural sources dominate, and aerosols are composed primarily of marine biogenic sulfate and sea spray. This study uses a range of diverse data sets to evaluate and untangle biases in Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) simulated clouds, aerosols, and sulfur species. The default E3SMv2 underestimates N_d over SO by a factor of 2 when compared with observations in 3 km-resolution simulations. Updating the dimethyl sulfide (DMS) emission and chemistry leads to a better agreement between the model and the observations in N_d and boundary layer aerosols, but low biases persist in the free tropospheric aerosol concentrations larger than 70 nm, possibly attributable to insufficient particle growth. Furthermore, updates to DMS emissions and chemistry resulted in reduced vertical DMS concentrations and improved the overall agreement between simulated and observed DMS vertical profiles. Preliminary evaluation also reveals remaining biases in simulated sulfur species, including overestimation in DMS at high latitudes, and in simulated sulfate mass concentration, highlighting the necessity for further efforts to improve the model treatment of relevant processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004683","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impacts of Wind Profile Shear and Curvature on the Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Stress in a Middle Atmosphere Resolving General Circulation Model","authors":"Rongrong Zhang,&nbsp;Yixiong Lu,&nbsp;Xin Xu,&nbsp;Yuan Wang","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004232","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004232","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The cold pole and westerly wind biases associated with an overly strong polar vortex are typical systematic biases in climate models, indicating the insufficient stratospheric wave drag. To investigate the effects of orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) on the stratospheric atmospheric circulation, two sets of experiments are performed by the middle-atmosphere version of Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model, employing different OGWD parameterization schemes with and without the second-order Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) corrections to the surface wave momentum flux (SWMF) caused by wind profile shear and curvature. In the simulation with the WKB-corrected OGWD scheme, the cold pole bias is reduced up to 2°C, and the associated westerly wind bias diminishes up to 4 m s⁻¹, particularly during the austral winter. Changes in the SWMF can further affect the vertical transport of orographic gravity waves. The enhanced SWMF in the modified scheme transports more wave momentum flux upward. Consequently, more wave momentum flux is transported into the upper stratosphere, enhancing the wave breaking there. The OGWD-induced meridional circulation is strengthened over Antarctic, contributing to the alleviation of the cold pole and westerly wind biases. In addition, the upward propagation of planetary Rossby waves in the mid-high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is enhanced, which contributes to the reduction of the westerly wind biases of the polar vortex as well. Overall, the WKB-corrected scheme is effective to alleviating the delayed breakdown of the polar vortex in Antarctica.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004232","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Evolutionary Optimization of the Reduced Gas-Phase Isoprene Oxidation Mechanism","authors":"Arijit Chakraborty,&nbsp;Forwood Cloud Wiser,&nbsp;Siddhartha Sen,&nbsp;Daniel M. Westervelt,&nbsp;Reese Carter,&nbsp;V. Faye McNeill,&nbsp;Venkat Venkatasubramanian","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004511","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Atmospheric chemistry is highly complex, and significant reductions in the size of the chemical mechanism are required to simulate the atmosphere. One of the bottlenecks in creating reduced models is identifying optimal numerical parameters. This process has been difficult to automate, and often relies on manual testing. In this work, we present the application of particle swarm optimization (PSO) toward optimizing the stoichiometric coefficients and rate constants of a reduced isoprene atmospheric oxidation mechanism. Using PSO, we are able to achieve up to 28.8% improvement in our error metric when compared to a manually tuned reduced mechanism, leading to a significantly optimized final mechanism. This work demonstrates PSO as a promising and thus far underutilized tool for atmospheric chemical mechanism development.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004511","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143930372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Link Between Stochastic Grid Perturbation and Location Uncertainty Framework","authors":"S. Clement,&nbsp;E. Blayo,&nbsp;L. Debreu,&nbsp;J.-M. Brankart,&nbsp;P. Brasseur,&nbsp;L. Li,&nbsp;E. Mémin","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004528","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004528","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the relationship between a Stochastic Grid Perturbation (SGP) and Location Uncertainty (LU) in the context of ocean modeling. The LU formulation, which introduces random velocity fluctuations, has shown efficacy in organizing large-scale flow and replicating long-term statistical characteristics. SGP was created as a simpler approach which perturbs the computational grid for ensemble members, aiming to simulate small uncertainties in high-resolution predictability studies. We aim to clarify the link between SGP and LU. After introducing the LU formalism, we derive the SGP method and discuss its connection to LU. Correlated noise in time is introduced in the SGP method to preserve the structure of the original grid. A compensating advection term is shown to preserve LU properties despite the latter correlated noise. Numerical experiments on a 3-layer Quasi-Geostrophic model compare various SGP implementations with an explicit LU implementation, highlighting the importance of the compensating advection term to achieve strict equivalence.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004528","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2","authors":"W. Yu,&nbsp;W. M. Hannah,&nbsp;J. J. Benedict,&nbsp;C.-C. Chen,&nbsp;J. H. Richter","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004473","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004473","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly-westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi-scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004473","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143919566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation at Subseasonal Scales With Gaussian Process Models","authors":"Haoyuan Chen,&nbsp;Emil Constantinescu,&nbsp;Vishwas Rao,&nbsp;Cristiana Stan","doi":"10.1029/2023MS004188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004188","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an influential climate phenomenon that plays a vital role in modulating global weather patterns. In spite of the improvement in MJO predictions made by machine learning algorithms, such as neural networks, most of them cannot provide the uncertainty levels in the MJO forecasts directly. To address this problem, we develop a nonparametric strategy based on Gaussian process (GP) models. We calibrate GPs using empirical correlations and we propose a posteriori covariance correction. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our model has better prediction skills than the artificial neural network models for the first five lead days. Additionally, our posteriori covariance correction extends the probabilistic coverage by more than 3 weeks.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2023MS004188","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143914380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Parameterizing Snow Sublimation in Conditions of Drifting and Blowing Snow","authors":"A. Sigmund,&nbsp;D. B. Melo,&nbsp;J. Dujardin,&nbsp;K. Nishimura,&nbsp;M. Lehning","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004332","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004332","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Snow transport favors strong sublimation and may therefore have an important effect on the surface mass balance of polar and high-mountain regions. Recently, small-scale models such as large-eddy simulation (LES) with Lagrangian snow particles have improved the understanding of snow transport processes and revealed shortcomings in large-scale models. This study leverages LES simulations to assess and improve current parameterizations of sublimation and snow transport. Measurements from the S17 site, East Antarctica, are used to define realistic model parameters and boundary conditions and verify the plausibility of the simulations. Various parameterization options are tested in a simple one-dimensional model inspired by the large-scale model CRYOWRF. When parameterizing the vapor and heat fluxes for given mass and number mixing ratios of particles, four improvements lead to a good agreement with the LES simulations: (a) a reduced friction velocity at the surface, (b) at least one grid level in the saltation layer, (c) prognostic humidity and temperature values at all heights, and (d) a correction term in the sublimation formula of Thorpe and Mason. The correction term accounts empirically for transient particle temperatures in the lowest 0.3 m of the atmosphere but requires further validation in a wider range of conditions. When modeling the particle mixing ratios in the one-dimensional model, an improved vertical discretization is critical. Overall, the proposed improvements change the latent heat flux by up to 91 W <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <msup>\u0000 <mi>m</mi>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>−</mo>\u0000 <mn>2</mn>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 </msup>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation> ${mathrm{m}}^{-2}$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math> (or 61%). To reduce the remaining errors, the saltation-suspension interface and near-surface particle speed should be better parameterized.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004332","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143902852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Impacts of Rotational Mixing on the Precipitation Simulated by a Convection Permitting Model","authors":"Samson Hagos,&nbsp;Zhe Feng,&nbsp;Adam C. Varble,&nbsp;Sheng-Lun Tai,&nbsp;Jingyi Chen","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004524","url":null,"abstract":"<p>With increased availability of computational resources, regional and global scale convection-permitting model (CPM, Δx ∼ 1–10 km) simulations are becoming more common. CPMs have improved accuracy in their representation of deep convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) compared to coarser resolution models. However, CPMs still exhibit convective cloud and precipitation biases relative to observations, notably a lesser frequency of light precipitation rates and greater frequency of heavy precipitation rates. In this work we hypothesize that these CPM biases are related to under-resolved mixing between convective updrafts and their surrounding environment. To test this hypothesis, we introduce a parameterization to the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) that adds a small angular rotation of the grid-scale flow about the axis perpendicular to the plane of convective drafts. This rotated flow is then allowed to alter advection of moisture and hydrometeors. The effects of such mixing on precipitation characteristics are evaluated in month-long 4-km grid spacing simulations over the Amazon. The enhanced mixing transports moisture and condensate from convective cores to other areas including downdrafts. This increases the frequency of low-precipitable water and light precipitation. It also decreases the frequency of intense precipitation from isolated deep convection and MCSs, increases cloud top temperatures, reduces radar echo-top heights, and increases overall precipitation by altering the relationship of precipitation with precipitable water, in better agreement with observations. The results suggest when optimized using multiple observations, such an approach may provide a path toward more accurate representation of convection and precipitation statistics in convection-permitting simulations.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004524","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Simple Emulator That Enables Interpretation of Parameter-Output Relationships, Applied to Two Climate Model PPEs","authors":"Qingyuan Yang,&nbsp;Gregory S. Elsaesser,&nbsp;Marcus van Lier-Walqui,&nbsp;Trude Eidhammer","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004766","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004766","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We present a new additive method, referred to as <i>sage</i> for Simplified Additive Gaussian processes Emulator, for emulating climate model Perturbed Parameter Ensembles (PPEs). <i>sage</i> estimates the value of a climate model output as the sum of additive terms. Each additive term is the mean of a Gaussian Process, and corresponds to the impact of a parameter or parameter group on the variable of interest. This design caters to the sparsity of PPEs, which are characterized by limited ensemble members and high dimensionality of the parameter space and raise the issue of parameter sensitivity in the emulator design. <i>sage</i> quantifies the variability explained by different parameters and parameter groups, providing additional insights on the parameter-climate model output relationship. We apply <i>sage</i> to two climate model PPEs and compare it to a fully connected Neural Network. The two methods have comparable performance with both PPEs, but <i>sage</i> provides insights on parameter and parameter group importance as well as diagnostics useful for optimizing PPE design. Insights gained from applying the method and comparing its performance with Neural Network are pointed out which have not been previously addressed. Our work highlights that analyzing the PPE used to train an emulator is different from analyzing data generated from an emulator trained on the PPE, as the former provides more insights on the data structure in the PPE which could help inform the emulator design. Our work also proposes new questions on the optimal way of working with climate model PPEs.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004766","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143901034","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Improving the Performance of a Reduced-Order Mass-Consistent Model for Urban Environments and Complex Terrain With a Higher-Order Geometrical Representation","authors":"Behnam Bozorgmehr,&nbsp;Pete Willemsen,&nbsp;Jeremy A. Gibbs,&nbsp;Rob Stoll,&nbsp;Jae-Jin Kim,&nbsp;Zachary Patterson,&nbsp;Eric R. Pardyjak","doi":"10.1029/2024MS004494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004494","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Solid structures (buildings and topography) act as obstacles and significantly influence the wind flow. Because of their importance, faithfully representing the geometry of structures in numerical predictions is critical to modeling accurate wind fields. A higher-order geometry representation (the cut-cell method) is incorporated in the mass-consistent wind model, Quick Environmental System (QES)-Winds. To represent the differences between a stair-step and the cut-cell method, an urban case study (the Oklahoma City JU2003 experiments) and a complex terrain case (from the MATERHORN campaign) are modeled in QES-Winds. Comparison between the simulation results with the stair-step and cut-cell methods and the measured data for sensors close to walls and buildings showed that the sensitivity of the cut-cell method to changes in resolution is less than the stair-step method. Another way to improve the effects of solid geometries on the flow is to correct the velocity gradient near the surface. QES-Winds solves a conservation of mass equation and not a conservation of momentum equation. This means that QES-Winds overestimates velocity gradients near the surface which leads to higher rates of scalar transport. The near-surface parameterization is designed to correct the tangential near-surface velocity component using the logarithmic assumption. Results, including the near-wall parameterization, are evaluated with data from the Granite Mountain case (the MATERHORN campaign), which indicates that the parameterization slightly improves the performance of the model for cells near the surface. The new geometry representation and near-wall parameterization added to a mass-consistent platform, enhances the model's ability to simulate the effects of solid geometries on wind fields.</p>","PeriodicalId":14881,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems","volume":"17 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.4,"publicationDate":"2025-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2024MS004494","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143897193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}