Energy Economics最新文献

{"title":"On spot revenues, capital structure and trade off theory: Analysing investment risk for contracted renewables","authors":"Nicholas Gohdes","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108703","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108703","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In decarbonising power systems, shifting dynamics require that investors lend careful consideration when structuring plant revenues – or risk violating the constraints of private capital markets. In Australia's National Electricity Market, new variable renewable energy (VRE) plant was traditionally ∼100 % revenue contracted via power purchase agreement (PPA) to facilitate bankability and provide stable returns. However, sharply falling VRE costs have enabled the emergence of a new asset class, viz. VRE with ‘semi-merchant’ cashflows, comprising both PPA contracted and spot market (i.e. merchant) exposed revenue streams. This blended revenue mix, which has dominated new entry in Australia, raises questions vis-à-vis capital structure optimisation as both investors and financiers grapple with the re-introduction of spot revenue variability. In this paper, stochastic modelling techniques are applied to stress-test new entrant wind plant cashflows under a full spectrum of PPA cover levels and within capital market (i.e. project finance) constraints. Under ordinary market conditions, a run-of-plant PPA with at least ∼50 % revenue cover is found sufficient to mitigate technical default risk and secure commercial debt levels. However, the relationship between PPA cover and default (i.e. distress cost) risk is also found to be decidedly non-linear, with some semi-merchant structures capable of supporting debt levels equivalent to 100 % PPA plant without introducing material default risk – an unexpected finding. Presented results identify the limits of a PPA to extract equity capital risk from a stand-alone VRE asset and, by implication, the limits of cost of capital optimisation in line with Modigliani and Miller's seminal writings on capital structure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108703"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144595897","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Interconnectedness between electricity and artificial intelligence-based markets during the crisis periods: Evidence from the TVP-VAR approach” [Energy Economics Volume 139, November 2024, 107885]","authors":"Imran Yousaf ,&nbsp;Obaika M. Ohikhuare ,&nbsp;Yong Li ,&nbsp;Yanshuang Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108701","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108701","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108701"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144523032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Collaborative regional pollution control and industrial land acquired by polluting firms in border areas–evidence from the air pollution joint prevention and control policy in China","authors":"Kaixia Zhang ,&nbsp;Weibing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108709","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108709","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Unclear environmental jurisdictions and weak enforcement in administrative border areas encourage polluting firms to cluster there by acquiring land to centralize production. Local governments, motivated by fiscal revenue, also sell land to these firms. Reducing such clustering is crucial for lowering border pollution and promoting high-quality development. Using China's air pollution joint prevention and control (AJPC) pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment and a multi-period DID approach, this study finds this collaborative regional pollution control policy significantly curbs industrial land acquisition by air-polluting firms in border areas, with spillover effects on other polluters. Mechanism tests reveal that the policy operates through both supply and demand channels: it alters local governments' land supply incentives by reducing allocations to air-polluting firms, while also increasing production costs, tightening financing constraints, and raising green awareness, thereby lowering polluting firms' land demand in border areas. Further analyses show that the AJPC policy's effectiveness varies with local officials' traits and environmental awareness of governments and firms. The policy mitigates regional pollution by restricting industrial land acquisition by polluting firms in border areas. Our findings enhance understanding of how regional pollution collaboration drives land reallocation in border areas, providing evidence to improve environmental policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108709"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Towards carbon neutrality: Will artificial intelligence and green bond become catalysts?","authors":"Xiaoqing Wang ,&nbsp;Adnan Safi ,&nbsp;Fengning Ge","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108711","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108711","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The burgeoning domains of artificial intelligence technology and green bonds market are emerging as pivotal forces for the attainment of carbon neutrality objectives. Therefore, this study adopts a dynamic lens to detect the long- and short-term interdependencies among artificial intelligence (AII), green bonds (GBI) and carbon neutrality (CNI). Employing the quantile autoregressive distributed lag model, empirical results denote that artificial intelligence contributes to an uptick in carbon emissions on account of the necessary digital infrastructure, while playing a pivotal role in aiding the realization of carbon neutrality over long term. In contrast, green bonds are instrumental in curbing emissions over the short term, and the long-term impact is characterized by a mixed correlation with emissions levels. Green bonds emerge as a particularly timely policy instrument for emission reduction, while artificial intelligence is perceived as a more durable and consistent facilitator for progress towards carbon neutrality. Besides, both AII and GBI have locational asymmetric impacts on the CNI. The long-term effects of both artificial intelligence and green bonds on carbon dioxide emissions are more substantial than the short-term effects. Finally, targeted policies are provided to promote achieving carbon neutrality goals through reasonable utilization of artificial intelligence and green bonds.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108711"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144563562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Using short-term scenarios to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate transition","authors":"Thomas Allen, Mathieu Boullot, Stéphane Dées, Annabelle de Gaye, Noëmie Lisack, Camille Thubin, Oriane Wegner","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108663","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108663","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a set of short-term scenarios that reflect the diversity of climate transition shocks : increase in carbon and energy prices, increase in public or private investment in the low-carbon transition, increase in the cost of capital due to uncertainty, deterioration of confidence, accelerated obsolescence of part of the installed capital, etc. Using a suite-of-model approach, we assess the implications of these scenarios for the dynamics of activity and inflation. By considering multiple scenarios, we therefore account for the uncertainty around future political decisions regarding climate change mitigation. The results show that the magnitude and duration of the macroeconomic effects of the transition to carbon neutrality will depend on the transition strategy chosen. While a number of short-term scenarios are inflationary or even stagflationary, there are also factors that could curb inflation and boost economic growth.","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"36 1","pages":"108663"},"PeriodicalIF":12.8,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144565780","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Understanding the role of socio-economic, demographic, environmental, infrastructural, and institutional attributes in the uptake of biogas technology in Pakistan: Proposing and implementing a novel step-wise framework","authors":"Muhammad Ahmar ,&nbsp;Fahad Ali ,&nbsp;Chengying He ,&nbsp;Yuexiang Jiang","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108699","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108699","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The extant literature considers the uptake of biogas technology as a remedy to mitigate the energy deficiency in rural areas; however, most of these considerations are based on either techno-economic or willingness-to-pay analyses for renewable energy at an arbitrarily chosen site, ignoring several important things that are necessary to consider in the first place. Other issues include linking the success of biogas projects with government subsidies, which is unlikely in most cases as energy-deprived countries are also facing economic problems. Thus, this study first proposes and then implements a framework that indicates the importance of (i) observing demographic, socio-economic, institutional, environmental, and infrastructural factors at household levels and (ii) site selection criteria for the successful enactment of biogas technology in rural communities. In doing so, we collected data from 469 households across three distinct regions of Pakistan—Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas—that met our selection criteria. By employing the probit model, we first pinpoint the determinants for biogas adoption decisions, followed by factors influencing the likelihood of households' willingness (decision) to adopt (discontinue) biogas technology. Socio-economic and infrastructural (demographic and institutional) attributes are the most (least) promising factors influencing biogas technology adoption. Based on the treatment effect and discussions with the participants, we find that households aware of the benefits associated with biogas technology in mitigating energy needs and improving socio-economic conditions are more willing to adopt it. From the policy standpoint, we suggest implementing a biogas promotion program by providing technical assistance to households and integrating it with sugar mills (for bagasse), irrigation and horticulture offices (for crop residuals and water), and municipal committee offices (for waste management); it possibly will help in accelerating the uptake and sustainability of biogas energy sector in Pakistan without relying on subsidies or credit facilities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108699"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144565759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Does innovative city building promote green logistics efficiency? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment with 285 cities” [Energy Economics Volume 114, October 2022, 106320]","authors":"Gang Du ,&nbsp;Wendi Li","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108685","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108685","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108685"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144502827","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Profitability of batteries in day-ahead and intraday electricity markets: Assessment of operation strategies with endogenous prices","authors":"Arjen T. Veenstra,&nbsp;Machiel Mulder","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108608","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108608","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Batteries can support future electricity systems by assisting price arbitrage in electricity markets, enhancing self-consumption, and providing ancillary services. Determining the profitability of price arbitrage , i.e. charge at low prices and discharge at high prices., requires evaluating the strategy that is used to benefit from future price fluctuations, and considering its impact on prices. This study examines battery profitability based on price arbitrage in day-ahead and intraday auction markets, where both temporal price differences within markets and price differences between markets are exploited. This is done with an electricity-market model, calibrated on historical Dutch bid-curve data, which estimates the impact of battery bids on market equilibria. We compare profits under perfect foresight with a strategy where the storage operator has perfect foresight of prices but ignores the own effect on prices, and two simpler historical-data-based strategies. It appears that the latter type of simpler strategies can result in profitable operations in case of small battery capacity, and that most profits can be made in the intraday market. However, when battery capacity increases, profitability declines, especially in the intraday market, due to lower market volumes. Increased battery capacity also calls for more advanced operation strategies, as historical price patterns may no longer predict future prices accurately. Even in a year with high price volatility as in 2023, with perfect foresight of prices and 60% lower battery costs, no more than 15% of Dutch households with solar panels can profitably invest in home batteries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108608"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513210","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The insurance value of renewable energies","authors":"Thibault Deletombe ,&nbsp;Hyun Jin Julie Yu ,&nbsp;Patrice Geoffron","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solar and wind power are energy sources which, by their very nature, give rise to a degree of uncertainty, considering their variability depending on weather conditions. However, unlike many phenomena in the energy field (geopolitical shocks, institutional changes, wars, etc.), the uncertainty generated by the deployment of renewable energies can be scientifically controlled and objectively predicted. Consequently, the penetration of renewable energies also provides forms of guarantee that need to be weighed against other types of energy supply strategies, such as long-term partnerships or diversification of hydrocarbon imports. The aim of this work is to assess and discuss how renewable capacity can serve as physical insurance for the electricity system, in particular against gas supply shocks, which we believe is appropriate in the aftermath of the 2022 crisis (and its extensions in the coming years). To this end, we define a framework for assessing the economic value of a capacity in a context of uncertainty, considering financial market incompleteness and imperfect information. When aggregating consumers’ and producers’ preferences, we find conditions under which the value of a capacity can be expressed as the sum of two components: one aligned with the spot market outcome and the other stemming from the willingness to pay for additional risk protection. Finally, we test this framework in a forward-looking model of the French electricity system in 2030, where a gas supply shock is taken into account. The numerical results show that solar and wind power are effective tools for managing gas-related risks, despite their variable output. In addition to the environmental benefits, this work suggests that there may be a new incentive for public intervention to support the development of renewable energies, based on this insurance value.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108671"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144513206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Environmental policy in vertical chains with endogenous technology portfolio","authors":"Debasmita Basak,&nbsp;Ioana Chioveanu","doi":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108607","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108607","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We analyze the impact of environmental policy in a supply chain where an upstream monopolist uses a mixed portfolio, consisting of a polluting and a green technology. We examine and compare a no-intervention benchmark, a green subsidy, an abatement tax, a mandatory green standard, and a combined policy (mandatory standard and tax), where policy instruments maximize welfare. Compared to the benchmark, prices are higher (lower), total output is smaller (larger), green capacity is larger, polluting capacity, profits, and consumer surplus are smaller (larger), and social welfare is greater with a binding tax (with a subsidy). A subsidy leads to larger green capacity than a tax and, unless the damage is high enough, to lower polluting capacity and greater welfare. A mandatory standard is outcome equivalent to a subsidy, except for the upstream manufacturer, who strictly prefers the latter. For small enough damage, a combined policy benefits not only society, but also consumers and retailers relative to the benchmark.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11665,"journal":{"name":"Energy Economics","volume":"148 ","pages":"Article 108607"},"PeriodicalIF":13.6,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144515237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}