Photovoltaic expansion and ecological trade-offs: Short-term vegetation loss and rapid recovery

Abstract

To address climate change and facilitate the low-carbon energy transition, photovoltaic (PV) capacity has rapidly expanded, raising concerns about the displacement of forests, grasslands, and cropland. We examine the ecological consequences of this expansion by analyzing high-resolution spatial data on PV plants in China (2010–2022) matched with 250 m resolution NDVI observations. Using a staggered difference in differences framework, we find that: (i) PV installation significantly reduces local vegetation cover in the short run, largely due to site clearing; (ii) this effect recedes over time, becoming statistically insignificant three to four years after installation, and in some regions even turning modestly positive owing to decreased evapotranspiration; (iii) heterogeneity analyses show pronounced damage in humid areas, while semi-arid and desert regions exhibit minimal or positive effects; (iv) stricter ecological management and judicious siting mitigate or eliminate these losses, such as in national key ecological function areas; and (v) no evidence emerges of negative spillovers on surrounding vegetation or of worsened local PM₁₀. Furthermore, utilizing global photovoltaic installation distribution data and NDVI data at 500 m resolution, similar negative impacts on vegetation greenness are observed in PV installations across 34 lesser-developed economies, including India, Brazil, Vietnam, and South Africa. In sum, optimal site selection and strengthened ecological safeguards are needed to balance large-scale PV deployment with ecological protection.