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Design and application of mixed-integer nonlinear model predictive control in residential buildings 住宅混合整数非线性模型预测控制的设计与应用
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117081
Artyom Burda , Mirco Rode , Axel Schild , Martin Grotjahn , Christian Kirches
{"title":"Design and application of mixed-integer nonlinear model predictive control in residential buildings","authors":"Artyom Burda ,&nbsp;Mirco Rode ,&nbsp;Axel Schild ,&nbsp;Martin Grotjahn ,&nbsp;Christian Kirches","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117081","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117081","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this work, we present a building energy management system based on a specifically designed mixed-integer nonlinear model predictive control (MINMPC) strategy. Applied to a multifamily residential building, we first assess the potential of the developed solution in a detailed simulation study and later address its real-world deployment on a programmable logic controller (PLC). We show that our strategy successfully follows the complex system constraints, such as the minimum admissible operating time of the system components, without compromising the residents’ comfort. The performance of the approach is evaluated in direct comparison with an enhanced rule-based conventional control strategy. We accomplish an overall 24.5% reduction in total energy costs and stable real-time operation of the hardware controller.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117081"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089316","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Energy management for multiple buildings with a shared EV parking lot: A dynamic zonal connectivity approach 带有共享电动汽车停车场的多栋建筑的能源管理:动态分区连接方法
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117080
Sang-Hwan Lee , Sung-Won Park , Sung-Yong Son
{"title":"Energy management for multiple buildings with a shared EV parking lot: A dynamic zonal connectivity approach","authors":"Sang-Hwan Lee ,&nbsp;Sung-Won Park ,&nbsp;Sung-Yong Son","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117080","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117080","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most existing studies on integrating electric vehicle (EV) charging into power systems for buildings assume fixed connections between specific sites, which limits the flexibility of these methods in utilizing available resources. In this study, we propose a novel dynamic zonal connectivity framework. The proposed approach allows electrical connections between multiple buildings and shared EV parking lots to be flexibly reconfigured as needed. The parking lot is divided into zones that serve as controllable units to improve peak demand management and reduce overall electricity bills. Based on this framework, we provide an operational model based on mixed-integer linear programming to jointly optimize switching configurations and EV charging schedules. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed model effectively reduced the total electricity bill by 1.84% and the peak demand by 8.56%, with savings increasing up to 2.64% with higher demand charges. These results show that our approach allows buildings to share EV resources across buildings to enhance operational flexibility in multi-building energy systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117080"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146089315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Atrium residential buildings versus compact shape houses − comparative analysis of energy demand in Spain and Poland 中庭住宅与紧凑型住宅——西班牙和波兰能源需求的比较分析
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117122
Wojciech Matys , Beata Sadowska , Ana Tejero González , Marta Baum , Dorota Anna Krawczyk
{"title":"Atrium residential buildings versus compact shape houses − comparative analysis of energy demand in Spain and Poland","authors":"Wojciech Matys ,&nbsp;Beata Sadowska ,&nbsp;Ana Tejero González ,&nbsp;Marta Baum ,&nbsp;Dorota Anna Krawczyk","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117122","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117122","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Residential building forms need to be evaluated to meet user expectations, urban planning requirements, and national energy regulations from architectural, technological, energy, and environmental perspectives. In this study, two contrasting typologies—atrium houses and compact-shape houses—each with identical floor area and functional layout, were compared under two climatic conditions: the humid continental climate of north-eastern Poland (Bialystok) and the continental-Mediterranean climate of central Spain (Valladolid). Dynamic simulations were carried out to evaluate the impact of both the form and the Window-to-Wall Ratio (WWR) on heating and cooling demand, as well as final energy consumption. Basic thermal comfort parameters and the daylight factor were also analyzed. The results demonstrate that building form strongly influences energy performance and interacts with climate. In humid-continental climate, atrium houses exhibited 40–50% higher heating demand than compact houses. In milder continental-Mediterranean climate, atrium houses achieved lower heating demand due to passive solar gains, but incurred significantly higher cooling loads, highlighting the risk of summer overheating. In both climates, compact houses proved more energetically robust, with lower sensitivity to WWR variations, while atrium buildings required advanced glazing, shading, or passive cooling measures to achieve competitive performance. Overall, the study confirms that climate-sensitive design is crucial when selecting between atrium and compact residential forms. The findings provide valuable guidance for architects, engineers, and policymakers aiming to align building design with sustainability targets, user comfort, and national energy regulations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117122"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146138293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Optimizing urban morphology for thermal comfort: real-time wind-solar synchronization via Ansys Discovery and Grasshopper 优化城市形态的热舒适:实时风能-太阳能同步通过ansys discovery和grasshopper
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117118
Amel Bounnah , Pr. Fatiha Bourbia
{"title":"Optimizing urban morphology for thermal comfort: real-time wind-solar synchronization via Ansys Discovery and Grasshopper","authors":"Amel Bounnah ,&nbsp;Pr. Fatiha Bourbia","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117118","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117118","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid urbanization in semi-arid regions significantly exacerbates outdoor heat stress, yet traditional urban planning often relies on static, prescriptive codes that fail to address complex microclimatic interactions. Moreover, existing optimization attempts are often limited by fragmented toolchains that compromise accuracy and lack real-time feedback. To address this, this study proposes a framework coupling Grasshopper with Ansys Discovery Live via a custom plug-in to optimize urban morphology through real-time, synchronized wind and solar simulation in the semi-arid climate of Batna (North-East Algeria), a region facing severe summer outdoor thermal discomfort. Using the Opossum solver to optimize individual building heights and rotations within a 1,650-unit AADL (Agence nationale de l’Amélioration et du Développement du Logement) housing project, the study targeted the minimization of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The optimization achieved a significant reduction of 2.43 °C in mean UTCI (from 34.41 °C to 31.98 °C), improving pedestrian comfort. Results reveal the emergence of optimized morphological patterns, where buildings adopt specialized roles: 50% for wind channeling, 20% for radiative protection, and 30% for microclimatic regulation. Notably, individual building rotation proved to be the decisive optimization lever under strict regulatory constraints. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of real-time generative environmental design workflows and highlight how local morphological parameters can affect thermal performance in semi-arid urban developments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117118"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146138305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Non-intrusive occupant detection in a real environment: a pilot study in an educational test bed facility 真实环境中的非侵入式乘员检测:教育试验台设施的试点研究
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117107
Thomas Olsson , Myriam Aries
{"title":"Non-intrusive occupant detection in a real environment: a pilot study in an educational test bed facility","authors":"Thomas Olsson ,&nbsp;Myriam Aries","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117107","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117107","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building automation systems increasingly rely on advanced sensor technologies to improve energy efficiency and occupant comfort in indoor environments. This study investigates the real-world performance of a commercially available optical occupancy sensor with edge computing capabilities in a classroom setting. The sensor was tested under controlled conditions to evaluate its accuracy in detecting occupants based on spatial and human-related factors, including distance, posture, orientation, and clothing. Results showed that detection accuracy significantly declined with increased distance and when participants faced away from the sensor. The average detection accuracy was 61%, which is below the threshold typically required for reliable building automation. Exploratory regression analysis confirmed that proximity and orientation were the most influential factors affecting the probability of detection. The findings highlight the importance of strategic sensor placement and suggest that multi-sensor configurations may be necessary for effective coverage. Limitations include a small sample size, static testing conditions, and the lack of comparison with alternative technologies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117107"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146110235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Data-Driven assessment of demand response potential of residential loads based on LSTM-WGCNA and Customer directrix load 基于LSTM-WGCNA和Customer directrix负荷的住宅负荷需求响应潜力数据驱动评估
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117101
Bo Peng, Baolin Cui, Xin Ma, Che Liu
{"title":"Data-Driven assessment of demand response potential of residential loads based on LSTM-WGCNA and Customer directrix load","authors":"Bo Peng,&nbsp;Baolin Cui,&nbsp;Xin Ma,&nbsp;Che Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117101","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117101","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Effectively identifying residential flexible resources is critical for carbon–neutral power systems. To address the complexity of user behavior, this paper proposes an integrated framework combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA). By encoding daily load profiles as dynamic gene expressions, the method constructs a topological overlap matrix to identify co-varying load patterns. A two-level assessment model based on Customer Directrix Load (CDL) is then established to quantify theoretical demand response potential. A case study on 200 households identify five typical usage patterns. The proposed method achieves a Davies-Bouldin Index of 2.24, which is superior to K-means at 2.84 and AE + K-means at 2.45. Furthermore, it improves cluster boundary separability by approximately 43%. Evaluation results quantify flexibility disparities, identifying Pattern C2, representing active evening users, as the highest potential group with a score of 0.58, and Pattern C5 as the lowest potential group with a score of 0.40. These findings provide actionable data support for aggregators to formulate differentiated flexibility allocation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117101"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146098300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A system-level auto-commissioning framework for proactive detection of hard and soft faults in VAV AHU systems 一个系统级自动调试框架,用于主动检测VAV AHU系统的硬故障和软故障
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117070
Arya Parsaei , Andre Markus , Burak Gunay , William O’Brien , Ricardo Moromisato , Jayson Bursill
{"title":"A system-level auto-commissioning framework for proactive detection of hard and soft faults in VAV AHU systems","authors":"Arya Parsaei ,&nbsp;Andre Markus ,&nbsp;Burak Gunay ,&nbsp;William O’Brien ,&nbsp;Ricardo Moromisato ,&nbsp;Jayson Bursill","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117070","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117070","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Maintaining reliable and efficient operation of HVAC systems remains a challenge in commercial buildings. Conventional commissioning and recommissioning practices are resource-intensive and infrequent, allowing faults to persist unnoticed for extended periods. This paper presents a system-level auto-commissioning (AC) framework to proactively detect hard and soft faults in variable air volume (VAV) air handling unit (AHU) systems. Hard fault tests target hardware-related problems including mixing box damper faults, and heating/cooling coil malfunctions. Complimentary soft fault tests diagnose control errors related to state of operation, mode of operation, and supply air temperature setpoint (T<sub>SA,SP</sub>) and duct static pressure setpoint (P<sub>duct,SP</sub>) reset logic. Implementation of the framework in an occupied building successfully revealed a leaky outdoor air damper, an inefficient economizer sequence, and deficiencies in T<sub>SA,SP</sub>/P<sub>duct,SP</sub> reset strategies. The results demonstrated the capability of the framework to provide actionable diagnostic insights, reduce reliance on manual inspection, and enhance operational efficiency through early fault detection.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117070"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146071957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Spatial-temporal evolution, drivers and multi-scenario prediction of carbon emissions from China’s construction industry 中国建筑业碳排放时空演变、驱动因素及多情景预测
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117076
Xiaojuan Li , Hongxin Lin , Chengxin Lin
{"title":"Spatial-temporal evolution, drivers and multi-scenario prediction of carbon emissions from China’s construction industry","authors":"Xiaojuan Li ,&nbsp;Hongxin Lin ,&nbsp;Chengxin Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117076","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117076","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The construction industry, as a resource-intensive and energy-demanding sector, is pivotal in carbon emissions and efforts to mitigate global warming. China’s commitment to “ecological civilization” and high-quality development urges the industry to balance economic growth with energy efficiency, emissions reduction, and sustainability. This study uses the IPCC coefficient method to estimate carbon emissions from China’s construction industry (CECCI), categorizing the nation into four economic regions. Through Moran’s I index, it examines regional carbon emission distributions and their evolution over time. An extended STIRPAT model is applied to analyze factors influencing CECCI, while the Tapio decoupling model assesses the decoupling between CECCI and economic growth. Additionally, a system dynamics (SD) model reveals the interaction mechanisms among these factors and forecasts multi-scenario trends for CECCI. Findings indicate that: (1) Inter-provincial carbon emission disparities are gradually narrowing, with emissions becoming more uniformly distributed. (2) Economic growth has enabled certain provinces to decouple emissions effectively. (3) Under low, medium, and high energy consumption scenarios, CECCI is projected to reach 518, 605, and 692 million tons of CO<sub>2</sub> by 2030, respectively. This study supports China’s low-carbon transition in construction, offering a scientific basis for targeted emissions policies and promoting sustainable development in the sector.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117076"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146071924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Innovative glazing systems composed of photovoltaic cells and monolithic aerogel layers: Electrical and thermal experimental characterization and simulation analysis 由光伏电池和单片气凝胶层组成的创新玻璃系统:电学和热实验表征和仿真分析
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117071
E. Belloni , Ann M. Anderson , Mary K. Carroll , B. Frizzi , T. Pierini , C. Buratti
{"title":"Innovative glazing systems composed of photovoltaic cells and monolithic aerogel layers: Electrical and thermal experimental characterization and simulation analysis","authors":"E. Belloni ,&nbsp;Ann M. Anderson ,&nbsp;Mary K. Carroll ,&nbsp;B. Frizzi ,&nbsp;T. Pierini ,&nbsp;C. Buratti","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117071","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117071","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Building-Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) solutions enable full utilization of a building envelope for clean electricity generation. This study investigates an innovative photovoltaic (PV) glazing system capable of producing energy that addresses the thermal weaknesses of windows through the use of an integrated silica aerogel layer (translucent material with low thermal conductivity). The performance was evaluated for three types of PV cells. For each of these cells, I-V and P-V curves were constructed from experimental data taken from the cells with and without the aerogel layer. Numerical simulations were used to assess the electrical productivity and the surface temperatures under different climate conditions. Results show that the aerogel layer slightly decreases the cell peak power (by 7.0% for a bifacial monocrystalline cell) for perpendicular irradiation, with a more significant decrease (up to 30%) when solar radiation is not perpendicular to the panel. For this reason, cold climates with short daylight hours could most benefit from this solution. Bifacial cells showed the best performance, with only a 7–8% decrease in energy production, compared to polycrystalline cells, with a decrease of 18–22%. Although the peak power of the cells is slightly reduced, the presence of aerogel contributes to a 4–7°C reduction in the average surface temperature. In Mediterranean and continental climatic conditions, the total annual number of hours with temperatures higher than 40°C is reduced by 60–74%. The effect of the aerogel is also more pronounced in the northern regions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117071"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146071950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Estimation of building energy demand characteristics using bayesian statistics and energy signature models 基于贝叶斯统计和能源签名模型的建筑能源需求特征估计
IF 7.1 2区 工程技术
Energy and Buildings Pub Date : 2026-04-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117075
Justinas Smertinas , Nicolaj Hans Nielsen , Matthias Y.C. Van Hove , Peder Bacher , Henrik Madsen
{"title":"Estimation of building energy demand characteristics using bayesian statistics and energy signature models","authors":"Justinas Smertinas ,&nbsp;Nicolaj Hans Nielsen ,&nbsp;Matthias Y.C. Van Hove ,&nbsp;Peder Bacher ,&nbsp;Henrik Madsen","doi":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117075","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.enbuild.2026.117075","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Energy Signature (ES) models are widely used in building energy performance assessment due to their simplicity, scalability, and physical interpretability. Nevertheless, conventional ES formulations are deterministic and provide limited insight into parameter uncertainty, constraining their value for robust performance evaluation and decision-making under real-world data variability.</div><div>This work addresses this gap by investigating how scalable Bayesian statistical inference can be systematically integrated into the ES framework to enable probabilistic, scalable assessments of building thermal performance at both individual building and building stock level. The research examines whether Bayesian ES models improve predictive performance while providing transparent uncertainty quantification for key thermal parameters, such as the effective heat transfer coefficient, solar gain, and wind infiltration.</div><div>A scalable Bayesian modelling framework is developed and applied to smart-meter data from 2788 Danish single-family houses. Three model variants are formulated and compared: a baseline ES model, an auto-regressive ES model (ARX-ES) capturing thermal inertia, and an auto-regressive moving average ES model (ARMAX-ES) approximating stochastic grey-box dynamics. The models estimate the effective heat transfer coefficients, solar gains, and wind infiltration, yielding full posterior distributions to reflect parameter uncertainty.</div><div>Results show that increased model complexity enhances one-step-ahead predictive performance, with the ARMAX-ES model achieving a median Bayesian R² of 0.94 across the building stock. At the single-building level, the yearly energy demand is estimated with credibility intervals within  ± 1%, showcasing more robust diagnostics than deterministic methods.</div><div>Overall, the proposed Bayesian ES framework enhances robustness and interpretability in building energy performance assessment, offering a scalable tool to complement energy certification, investment prioritisation, demand forecasting and data-driven energy planning.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":11641,"journal":{"name":"Energy and Buildings","volume":"356 ","pages":"Article 117075"},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146095870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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