Resilience testing in thermal retrofit Optimisation: Maximising the benefits of passive strategies across Behavioural, Climatic, and extreme weather scenarios

Optimal thermal retrofit selection in residential dwellings is paramount to maximise performance outcomes. Best-practice retrofit optimisation is undertaken using data-driven building performance models supplemented by expert knowledge on inputs such as occupant behaviour, boundary conditions and local weather. Retrofits must also be resilient to changes in these input parameters to prevent future underperformance, or potentially adverse thermal conditions, should conditions change from original assumptions. While current research in this space principally focuses on building resilience to climate-based scenarios such as climate change and extreme weather events (heat waves in particular), it is not common practice to include resilience testing in retrofit optimisation. This paper uses a previously developed minimum input model to test the resilience of a range of common passive retrofits applied to three case study dwellings against a range of scenarios including changes to behaviour, occupancy, long-term climate change and under extreme weather events. The findings underscore the importance of tailored retrofit strategies as performance varied significantly between case studies and scenarios. This research demonstrates the value of resilience testing in retrofit optimisation, enabling more informed decision-making to ensure long-term adaptability and robustness to diverse and changing conditions.