Yao Fu, M. Susan Lozier, Tiago Carrilho Biló, Amy S. Bower, Stuart A. Cunningham, Frédéric Cyr, M. Femke de Jong, Brad deYoung, Lewis Drysdale, Neil Fraser, Nora Fried, Heather H. Furey, Guoqi Han, Patricia Handmann, N. Penny Holliday, James Holte, Mark E. Inall, William E. Johns, Sam Jones, Johannes Karstensen, Feili Li, Astrid Pacini, Robert S. Pickart, Darren Rayner, Fiammetta Straneo, Igor Yashayaev
{"title":"Seasonality of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic","authors":"Yao Fu, M. Susan Lozier, Tiago Carrilho Biló, Amy S. Bower, Stuart A. Cunningham, Frédéric Cyr, M. Femke de Jong, Brad deYoung, Lewis Drysdale, Neil Fraser, Nora Fried, Heather H. Furey, Guoqi Han, Patricia Handmann, N. Penny Holliday, James Holte, Mark E. Inall, William E. Johns, Sam Jones, Johannes Karstensen, Feili Li, Astrid Pacini, Robert S. Pickart, Darren Rayner, Fiammetta Straneo, Igor Yashayaev","doi":"10.1038/s43247-023-00848-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-023-00848-9","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date. Subpolar overturning in the North Atlantic Ocean shows substantial seasonality, with a maximum in late spring, a minimum in early winter, and a total range of about 9 Sv, according to observations from the OSNAP array between 2014 and 2020.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2023-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10211299/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9545677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jiaqi Li, Thomas P. Ferrand, Tong Zhou, Jeroen Ritsema, Lars Stixrude, Min Chen
{"title":"Ultra-low-velocity anomaly inside the Pacific Slab near the 410-km discontinuity","authors":"Jiaqi Li, Thomas P. Ferrand, Tong Zhou, Jeroen Ritsema, Lars Stixrude, Min Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-023-00756-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-023-00756-y","url":null,"abstract":"The upper boundary of the mantle transition zone, known as the “410-km discontinuity”, is attributed to the phase transformation of the mineral olivine (α) to wadsleyite (β olivine). Here we present observations of triplicated P-waves from dense seismic arrays that constrain the structure of the subducting Pacific slab near the 410-km discontinuity beneath the northern Sea of Japan. Our analysis of P-wave travel times and waveforms at periods as short as 2 s indicates the presence of an ultra-low-velocity layer within the cold slab, with a P-wave velocity that is at least ≈20% lower than in the ambient mantle and an apparent thickness of ≈20 km along the wave path. This ultra-low-velocity layer could contain unstable material (e.g., poirierite) with reduced grain size where diffusionless transformations are favored. An ultra-low seismic velocity region that may contain unstable mineral phases exists within the cold Pacific slab near the 410-km discontinuity at the Kuril subduction zone, according to analyzes of P-wave travel times and waveforms from dense seismic arrays.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2023-05-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10155659/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9479087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"War and pandemic do not jeopardize Germans’ willingness to support climate measures","authors":"Adrian Rinscheid, Sebastian Koos","doi":"10.1038/s43247-023-00755-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-023-00755-z","url":null,"abstract":"How do the impacts of acute crises influence citizens’ willingness to support different types of climate measures? An acute crisis can be understood either as an impediment or as an opportunity for climate change mitigation. In the first perspective, crisis impacts would create negative spill-overs and dampen citizens’ willingness to support climate action, while in the second perspective, the opposite would occur. Based on a survey experiment fielded in Germany in 2022 (n = 5438), we find that the economic implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War do not decrease behavioral willingness, while restrictions of civil liberties to combat the COVID-19 pandemic lead to higher climate support, underpinning the crisis-as-opportunity perspective. Willingness to support climate measures is strongest among (1) those most concerned about climate change, and (2) those who trust the government. We conclude that individuals do not wish climate change mitigation to be deprioritized on the back of other crises. The economic implications of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the impact of lockdown restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic do not negatively affect public support for climate measures and suggest a crisis-as-opportunity perspective, according to a 2022 survey experiment with 5438 German residents.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068711/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9279495","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Most industrialised countries have peaked carbon dioxide emissions during economic crises through strengthened structural change","authors":"Germán Bersalli, Tim Tröndle, Johan Lilliestam","doi":"10.1038/s43247-023-00687-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-023-00687-8","url":null,"abstract":"As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965–2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms. In most developed economies where decarbonisation processes are already in place, economic crises have coincided with a peak and subsequently declining emissions as a result of lower carbon and energy intensities, according to a statistical analysis of 45 countries between 1965 and 2019.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9942058/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10799411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Christopher M. Clark, R. Quinn Thomas, Kevin J. Horn
{"title":"Above-ground tree carbon storage in response to nitrogen deposition in the U.S. is heterogeneous and may have weakened","authors":"Christopher M. Clark, R. Quinn Thomas, Kevin J. Horn","doi":"10.1038/s43247-023-00677-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-023-00677-w","url":null,"abstract":"Changes in nitrogen (N) availability affect the ability for forest ecosystems to store carbon (C). Here we extend an analysis of the growth and survival of 94 tree species and 1.2 million trees, to estimate the incremental effects of N deposition on changes in aboveground C (dC/dN) across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). We find that although the average effect of N deposition on aboveground C is positive for the CONUS (dC/dN = +9 kg C per kg N), there is wide variation among species and regions. Furthermore, in the Northeastern U.S. where we may compare responses from 2000-2016 with those from the 1980s–90s, we find the recent estimate of dC/dN is weaker than from the 1980s–90s due to species-level changes in responses to N deposition. This suggests that the U.S. forest C-sink varies widely across forests and may be weakening overall, possibly necessitating more aggressive climate policies than originally thought. Long-term nitrogen deposition may not provide sustained stimulation of tree carbon storage, suggest analyses of a tree inventory and growth for the contiguous US between 2000 and 2016, compared to data for the 1980s and 1990s.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2023-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10262689/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9722500","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol pollution in South and East Asia induces increased summer precipitation over arid Central Asia","authors":"Xiaoning Xie, Gunnar Myhre, Drew Shindell, Gregory Faluvegi, Toshihiko Takemura, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Zhengguo Shi, Xinzhou Li, Xiaoxun Xie, Heng Liu, Xiaodong Liu, Yangang Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-022-00660-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-022-00660-x","url":null,"abstract":"Precipitation has increased across the arid Central Asia region over recent decades. However, the underlying mechanisms of this trend are poorly understood. Here, we analyze multi-model simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to investigate potential drivers of the observed precipitation trend. We find that anthropogenic sulfate aerosols over remote polluted regions in South and East Asia lead to increased summer precipitation, especially convective and extreme precipitation, in arid Central Asia. Elevated concentrations of sulfate aerosols over remote polluted Asia cause an equatorward shift of the Asian Westerly Jet Stream through a fast response to cooling of the local atmosphere at mid-latitudes. This shift favours moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, which is confirmed by a moisture budget analysis. High levels of absorbing black carbon lead to opposing changes in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream and reduced local precipitation, which can mask the impact of sulfate aerosols. This teleconnection between arid Central Asia precipitation and anthropogenic aerosols in remote Asian polluted regions highlights long-range impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on atmospheric circulations and the hydrological cycle. An equatorward shift in the Asian Westerly Jet Stream attributable to high levels of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol in South and East Asia favours the moisture supply from low-latitudes and moisture flux convergence over arid Central Asia, according to multi-model data analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2022-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9792934/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"10471101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tatsuro Tanioka, Catherine A. Garcia, Alyse A. Larkin, Nathan S. Garcia, Adam J. Fagan, Adam C. Martiny
{"title":"Global patterns and predictors of C:N:P in marine ecosystems","authors":"Tatsuro Tanioka, Catherine A. Garcia, Alyse A. Larkin, Nathan S. Garcia, Adam J. Fagan, Adam C. Martiny","doi":"10.1038/s43247-022-00603-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-022-00603-6","url":null,"abstract":"Oceanic nutrient cycles are coupled, yet carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus (C:N:P) stoichiometry in marine ecosystems is variable through space and time, with no clear consensus on the controls on variability. Here, we analyze hydrographic, plankton genomic diversity, and particulate organic matter data from 1970 stations sampled during a global ocean observation program (Bio-GO-SHIP) to investigate the biogeography of surface ocean particulate organic matter stoichiometry. We find latitudinal variability in C:N:P stoichiometry, with surface temperature and macronutrient availability as strong predictors of stoichiometry at high latitudes. Genomic observations indicated community nutrient stress and suggested that nutrient supply rate and nitrogen-versus-phosphorus stress are predictive of hemispheric and regional variations in stoichiometry. Our data-derived statistical model suggests that C:P and N:P ratios will increase at high latitudes in the future, however, changes at low latitudes are uncertain. Our findings suggest systematic regulation of elemental stoichiometry among ocean ecosystems, but that future changes remain highly uncertain. Variations in the biogeography of particulate organic matter carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus stoichiometry in the surface ocean can be robustly predicted by different factors depending on latitude, region and hemisphere, according to a global ocean observational analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2022-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9640808/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40504703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hilary Byerly Flint, Patricia A. Champ, James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith
{"title":"Wildfire imagery reduces risk information-seeking among homeowners as property wildfire risk increases","authors":"Hilary Byerly Flint, Patricia A. Champ, James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith","doi":"10.1038/s43247-022-00505-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-022-00505-7","url":null,"abstract":"Negative imagery of destruction may induce or inhibit action to reduce risks from climate-exacerbated hazards, such as wildfires. This has generated conflicting assumptions among experts who communicate with homeowners: half of surveyed wildfire practitioners perceive a lack of expert agreement about the effect of negative imagery (a burning house) on homeowner behavior, yet most believe negative imagery is more engaging. We tested whether this expectation matched homeowner response in the United States. In an online experiment, homeowners who viewed negative imagery reported more negative emotions but the same behavioral intentions compared to those who viewed status-quo landscape photos. In a pre-registered field experiment, homeowners who received a postcard showing negative imagery were equally likely, overall, to visit a wildfire risk webpage as those whose postcard showed a status quo photo. However, the negative imagery decreased webpage visits as homeowners’ wildfire risk increased. These results illustrate the importance of testing assumptions to encourage behavioral adaptation to climate change. Imagery of wildfire destruction elicits more negative emotions and – among those most at risk from wildfire – reduces risk information seeking behavior, according to online and field experiments with homeowners in the western USA.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2022-10-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9531637/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33496243","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Álvaro del Rey, Christian Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Mikael Calner, Rongchang Wu, Dan Asael, Tais W. Dahl
{"title":"Stable ocean redox during the main phase of the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event","authors":"Álvaro del Rey, Christian Mac Ørum Rasmussen, Mikael Calner, Rongchang Wu, Dan Asael, Tais W. Dahl","doi":"10.1038/s43247-022-00548-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-022-00548-w","url":null,"abstract":"The Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event (GOBE) represents the greatest increase in marine animal biodiversity ever recorded. What caused this transformation is heavily debated. One hypothesis states that rising atmospheric oxygen levels drove the biodiversification based on the premise that animals require oxygen for their metabolism. Here, we present uranium isotope data from a Middle Ordovician marine carbonate succession that shows the steepest rise in generic richness occurred with global marine redox stability. Ocean oxygenation ensued later and could not have driven the biodiversification. Stable marine anoxic zones prevailed during the maximum increase in biodiversity (Dapingian–early Darriwilian) when the life expectancy of evolving genera greatly increased. Subsequently, unstable ocean redox conditions occurred together with a marine carbon cycle disturbance and a decrease in relative diversification rates. Therefore, we propose that oceanic redox stability was a factor in facilitating the establishment of more resilient ecosystems allowing marine animal life to radiate. The period leading up to the Great Ordovician Biodiversification Event was characterised by stable marine anoxic zones with a substantial increase in atmospheric oxygen occurring only after this, according to uranium isotope analyses of marine carbonates from southern Sweden","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9510202/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"40390499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Manuel B. Morales, Mario Díaz, David Giralt, Francesc Sardà-Palomera, Juan Traba, François Mougeot, David Serrano, Santi Mañosa, Sabrina Gaba, Francisco Moreira, Tomas Pärt, Elena D. Concepción, Rocío Tarjuelo, Beatriz Arroyo, Gerard Bota
{"title":"Protect European green agricultural policies for future food security","authors":"Manuel B. Morales, Mario Díaz, David Giralt, Francesc Sardà-Palomera, Juan Traba, François Mougeot, David Serrano, Santi Mañosa, Sabrina Gaba, Francisco Moreira, Tomas Pärt, Elena D. Concepción, Rocío Tarjuelo, Beatriz Arroyo, Gerard Bota","doi":"10.1038/s43247-022-00550-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-022-00550-2","url":null,"abstract":"European green agricultural policies have been relaxed to allow cultivation of fallow land to produce animal feed and meet shortfalls in exports from Ukraine and Russia. However, conversion of semi-natural habitats will disproportionately impact long term biodiversity and food security. In their Comment in @CommsEarth, Manuel Morales and colleagues argue that we must act now to protect green agricultural policies in the EU to ensure food security in the future.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-3"},"PeriodicalIF":7.9,"publicationDate":"2022-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9487854/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"33485208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}