Michael J. McPhaden, Sreelekha Jarugula, Léo C. Aroucha, Joke F. Lübbecke
{"title":"Indian Ocean Dipole intensifies Benguela Niño through Congo River discharge","authors":"Michael J. McPhaden, Sreelekha Jarugula, Léo C. Aroucha, Joke F. Lübbecke","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01955-x","url":null,"abstract":"Benguela Niños are episodes of unusual El Niño-like warming in the upwelling zone off the coast of southwest Africa, with consequential impacts on marine ecosystems, coastal fisheries and regional weather. The strongest Benguela Niño in the past 40 years occurred in February–April 1995 with local sea surface temperature anomalies up to 4 °C off the coast of Angola and Namibia. Here, we show that a strong Indian Ocean Dipole in September–November 1994 helped boost the amplitude of the 1995 Benguela Niño through a land bridge involving Congo River discharge. We use atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological data to demonstrate the sequential linkage between Indian Ocean Dipole development, unusually high rainfall in the Congo River basin, high Congo River discharge, low salinity near the Congo River mouth, and southward advection of this low salinity water into the Benguela upwelling region. The low salinity water isolated the surface mixed layer from the thermocline, which limited vertical mixing with colder subsurface waters and led to enhanced sea surface temperature warming. We also discuss how other Indian Ocean Dipole events may have similarly affected subsequent Benguela Niños and the possibility that Indian Ocean Dipole impacts on Benguela Niños may become more prominent in the future. The 1995 Benguela Niño, the strongest in the past 40 years, was intensified by high freshwater discharge from the Congo River due to a major Indian Ocean Dipole in late 1994, according to analysis of oceanic, atmospheric and hydrological data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01955-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862429","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Axel Timmermann, Keith B. Rodgers
{"title":"Projected phenological shifts in stratification and overturning of ice-covered Northern Hemisphere lakes","authors":"Lei Huang, R. Iestyn Woolway, Axel Timmermann, Keith B. Rodgers","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z","url":null,"abstract":"The seasonal cycle of vertical mixing is crucial for lake ecosystems, yet its future under climate change remains uncertain. While lake stratification shifts have been widely studied, the annual overturning duration changes are less clear. Using sub-daily simulations from a fully coupled numerical Earth system model, we assess phenological changes in stratification and overturning in Northern Hemisphere ice-covered lakes. We find the total stratification duration (comprising both summer and winter phases) is projected to decrease by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days in 2029, 2067, and 2096, respectively, under global temperature increases of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C. Conversely, the duration of overturning is expected to increase by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually. Notably, these changes are asymmetrical, with most of the overturning extension occurring in the fall, following the peak growing season. This extended overturning could affect lake ecosystems, particularly through enhanced ventilation of bottom layers and altered nutrient cycling. Rising global temperatures of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C will shorten stratification by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days, and lengthen overturning by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually by 2096 in the Northern Hemisphere, affecting lake ecosystems through altered ventilation and nutrient cycling, according to sub-daily simulations of ice-covered lakes.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01953-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Heng Peng, Lin Ding, Chiyang Liu, Massimiliano Zattin, Jianqiang Wang, Licheng Wang
{"title":"Middle Triassic transcontinental connection between the North China Craton and the Paleo-Tethys Ocean","authors":"Heng Peng, Lin Ding, Chiyang Liu, Massimiliano Zattin, Jianqiang Wang, Licheng Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01945-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01945-z","url":null,"abstract":"Middle Triassic paleogeography is essential for the paleoclimate change and ecosystem recovery after the end-Permian mass extinction, but is highly debated in the Paleo-Tethys Ocean and North China Craton, eastern Pangaea. Here we report a detailed provenance fingerprinting dataset from Middle Triassic sediments across the North China Craton, Qinling and Songpan-Ganzi and identify the paleo-uplift in the northern North China Craton as a primary sediment source. We propose that a Middle Triassic transcontinental drainage system flowed from the northern North China Craton through the central Qinling into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean along the gradually descending landform, challenging the suggestion that the North China Craton was a great endorheic basin. The finding of this study will provide a better understanding of Middle Triassic physiography and paleogeography of the North China Craton. Such heterogeneous paleotopography and transcontinental drainage played a critical role in the marine-terrestrial ecosystems of the eastern Pangaea. A transcontinental drainage system transported sediments from the North China Craton into the eastern Paleo-Tethys Ocean in the Middle Triassic, as shown by a multi-proxy provenance and paleogeographic study from MiddleTriassic sediments from the North China Craton, Qinling, and Songpan-Ganzi regions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01945-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards
{"title":"Increasing timber and declining live plant diversity and volumes in global trade from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","url":null,"abstract":"Plants are a vast, lucrative portion of global wildlife trade and the most speciose clade listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora-CITES. Here we used the CITES Trade Database and >420,000 records between 2000 and 2020 and assessed the diversity and volume of wild-sourced CITES-listed plants across space and time. Between 2000–2020, over 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million individual live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products were traded under CITES, comprising 53, 765, and 74 species, respectively. Most species are traded between key exporter and importer nations, especially China, USA, and Europe. Total diversity of timber species and volumes increased over time, whereas live diversity declined, and product diversity and mass fluctuated uncertainly. Most species were not evaluated by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List when first traded, with high volumes of timber and products concentrated among threatened taxa. The high prevalence of poorly understood species necessitates enhanced rigour in ensuring sustainable CITES trade. More than 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products listed by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species were traded globally from 2000 to 2020, according to an analysis that uses trade data and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01950-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Hector S. Torres, Ernesto Rodriguez, Alexander Wineteer, Patrice Klein, Andrew F. Thompson, Jörn Callies, Eric D’Asaro, Dragana Perkovic-Martin, J. Thomas Farrar, Federica Polverari, Ruzbeh Akbar
{"title":"Airborne observations of fast-evolving ocean submesoscale turbulence","authors":"Hector S. Torres, Ernesto Rodriguez, Alexander Wineteer, Patrice Klein, Andrew F. Thompson, Jörn Callies, Eric D’Asaro, Dragana Perkovic-Martin, J. Thomas Farrar, Federica Polverari, Ruzbeh Akbar","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01917-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01917-3","url":null,"abstract":"Ocean images collected by astronauts onboard the Apollo spacecraft more than 50 years ago revealed a large number of ocean eddies, with a size between 1 and 20 km. Since then, satellite infrared, ocean color, sun glitter and synthetic aperture radar images, with high spatial resolution, have confirmed the ubiquitous presence of these small eddies in all oceans. However, observing the dynamical characteristics and evolution of these eddies has remained challenging. An experiment was recently carried out in the California Current system using the new airborne Doppler Scatterometer (National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Jet Propulsion Laboratory DopplerScatt) instrument that observes surface velocities. Here, with DopplerScatt, we mapped a 30 × 100 km domain over multiple days to unveil numerous 1–20 km ocean eddies, called submesoscale eddies, that evolve over a period of a few hours. The strong interactions between eddies generate horizontal velocity divergence, implying vertical velocities reaching 250 m day−1 at 40 m depth. The velocity field also produces horizontal dispersion of particles over a distance of 50 km within 12 h, which rapidly fills the turbulent eddy field. These observations suggest that submesoscale ocean turbulence may profoundly affect the vertical transport of heat, carbon, and important climatic gases between the atmosphere and the ocean interior, as well as the horizontal dispersion of tracers and particles. As such, submesoscale ocean eddies are a critical element of Earth’s climate system. Submesoscale eddies in the upper ocean play a critical role in the vertical transport and dispersion of ocean properties, including heat, nutrients, and carbon, making them essential for regulating the Earth’s climate system, according to results from the new airborne Doppler Scatterometer.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01917-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Zixiang Yan, Soong-Ki Kim, Seungmok Paik
{"title":"Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario","authors":"Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Zixiang Yan, Soong-Ki Kim, Seungmok Paik","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8","url":null,"abstract":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation-induced tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies have global impacts and will intensify under greenhouse warming, but the potential for mitigating these changes is less understood. Here, we identify distinct hysteresis features in the precipitation-sea surface temperature sensitivity between strong El Niño and La Niña phases using a large ensemble carbon removal numerical simulation. The strong El Niño precipitation sensitivity exhibits a century-scale hysteretic enhancement and eastward shift, mainly due to modulated deep convection anomalies by the Intertropical Convergence Zone via cloud-longwave feedback. Instead, the strong La Niña counterpart is concentrated toward the equator, mostly in the central-western Pacific, with a shorter hysteresis period of a few decades. This primarily involves changes in shallow convection and surface thermal structures during La Niña, shaped by global warming-induced upper-ocean circulation changes. The distinct climate change regimes of strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation sensitivity hold important implications for assessing mitigation consequences. The hysteresis in precipitation-sea surface temperature sensitivity differs between strong El Niño and La Niña phases, with El Niño intensifying and shifting eastward due to deep convection, while La Niña is more equator-centered with a shorter hysteresis period, according to a large ensemble simulation of symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down pathways.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01958-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Humphrey Adun, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Olusola Bamisile, Yihua Hu, Iain Staffell, Haris R. Gilani
{"title":"Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal","authors":"Humphrey Adun, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Olusola Bamisile, Yihua Hu, Iain Staffell, Haris R. Gilani","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4","url":null,"abstract":"Deep decarbonization is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and carbon dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero targets. However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear. We quantify how different carbon removal methods and their deployment timing affect achieving net zero emissions by 2050 in the United States. Our findings show that postponing novel technologies until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy-intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions by at least 12% compared with near-term deployment of carbon dioxide removal. This delay increases transition costs, requiring carbon prices 59–79% higher than with near-term deployment. It also heightens the risk of premature fossil fuel retirement in the electricity sector, leading to 128–220 billion USD losses compared to gradual scale up starting now. A balanced, near-term co-deployment of novel removal methods mitigates risks associated with relying on a single approach and addresses sustainability and scalability concerns. In the US, the delay in novel carbon dioxide removal until mid-century and focus on other mitigation actions reduces 2050 residual emissions to 17 percent of 2020 levels but at a high economic cost, according to an analysis that uses a market equilibrium model with a scenario approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01916-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhaoling Li, Lu Sun, Runsen Zhang, Tatsuya Hanaoka
{"title":"Decarbonization pathways promote improvements in cement quality and reduce the environmental impact of China’s cement industry","authors":"Zhaoling Li, Lu Sun, Runsen Zhang, Tatsuya Hanaoka","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01929-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01929-z","url":null,"abstract":"The cement industry plays a key role in emission reduction efforts, but cement quality is rarely considered in low-carbon development analyses. Here we design three cement quality transformation routes in response to China’s cement quality improvement program and analyse the corresponding low-carbon development pathways via a bottom-up integrated assessment model. Results show that cement quality improvements trigger a 14.6% increase in energy consumption and emissions in business-as-usual scenarios in 2060. Compared with the base year, raising the environmental taxes to 46.8 Chinese Yuan per equivalent unit saves up to 75.1% of carbon dioxide emissions and 25.0% of fuel consumption from the high-quality-cement scenario by 2060. Carbon capture and storage contributes up to 77% of the emission reduction. The reduction in cement demand conserves 17.3% more energy than the high-cement-demand scenario does in 2060. Collaborative waste treatment is expected to replace 22.4% of fuel consumption in the cement industry in 2060. In China, under the high cement quality scenario, the increase of environmental taxes is projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption in the cement industry by 2060, according to an analysis that uses an integrated assessment model with the flow of energy and materials.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01929-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jordi Sardans, Albert Miralles, Akash Tariq, Fanjiang Zeng, Rong Wang, Josep Peñuelas
{"title":"Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface","authors":"Jordi Sardans, Albert Miralles, Akash Tariq, Fanjiang Zeng, Rong Wang, Josep Peñuelas","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming has impacted water cycle, but not exist a global study of the changes at global scale of the impacts on water available for plants. Here, cloud-optimized monthly aggregated climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts dataset indicates that from 1960 to 2023, 27.9% of the global land surface became significantly more arid, while 20.5% became significantly less arid. This indicates a shift towards drier climates, with humid, semi-humid, and semi-arid areas decreasing by 8.51, 1.45, and 0.53 million-km², respectively, and arid and hyper-arid areas increasing by 6.34 and 4.18 million-km², respectively. This total increase of 9.99 million km² in arid areas represents 5.9% of the global land surface, excluding Greenland and Antarctica. Accelerated aridification has occurred in already dry regions, such as South-west North-America, North-Brazil, the European-Basin, North-Africa, the Middle-East, the Sahel, and central-Asia, with central-Africa as a new hotspot. The main driver is the disproportionate increase in potential evapotranspiration relative to rainfall, attributed to rising atmospheric temperatures, which also reduces the land’s carbon sink capacity, potentially exacerbating climate warming. From 1960 to 2023, 27.9% of the global land surface became more arid, while 20.5% became less arid, resulting in a 5.9% increase in arid regions, linked to reduction of land’s carbon sink capacity and climate warming, according to analysis of the ERA5-land monthly aggregated climate reanalysis dataset.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01935-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Xia Zhang, Bo Huang, Nariê Rinke Dias de Souza, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini
{"title":"Regional cooling potential from expansion of perennial grasses in Europe","authors":"Xia Zhang, Bo Huang, Nariê Rinke Dias de Souza, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01923-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01923-5","url":null,"abstract":"Perennial grasses are an option to mitigate global warming, increase energy security, and alleviate environmental pressures within agricultural landscapes. Their cultivation alters near-surface temperature in ways that are still largely unclear. Here, a regional climate model with an enhanced representation of perennial grasses shows that converting today’s cropland areas in Europe induces annual mean temperature reductions in summer and autumn (up to –1 °C), which are primarily driven by a later harvest of perennial grasses relative to annual crops. Cultivation of perennial grasses where they deliver stronger biogeophysical cooling can achieve a similar annual mean temperature reduction on half of the land. This cooling can counteract up to 50% of the projected future warming and it is three times larger than what is achieved via carbon emission reductions. A sustainable deployment of perennial grasses has the potential to link global mitigation objectives with co-benefits for the local climate and environment. In Europe, converting today’s cropland areas into perennial grasses, such as switchgrass, reduces annual mean temperatures in summer and autumn, according to an analysis that uses a regional climate model and life cycle assessment.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01923-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}