Meng Zhang, Yanhong Gao, Mingfang Ting, Yan Yu, Guoyin Wang
{"title":"Land-use induced changes in extreme temperature predominantly influenced by downward longwave radiation","authors":"Meng Zhang, Yanhong Gao, Mingfang Ting, Yan Yu, Guoyin Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01936-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01936-0","url":null,"abstract":"Land use is key in regulating surface temperature, yet these relationships are often obscured by long-term mean responses. Here we employed numerical multi-model results to investigate the response of the surface temperature to land use change, especially its lower tails corresponding to boreal winter. The surface temperature decrease in the lower tails can exhibit up to ten times greater than the mean response to land use change over both the historical and future periods. Downward longwave radiation has emerged as the most remarkable contributing factor in controlling surface temperature change in mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Land use change can modify surface energy balance through land-atmosphere firstly, thereby regulate spatial patterns of water vapor and cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere through teleconnection. The unity of local and remote effects influences the levels of downward longwave radiation and altering surface temperature at mid-high latitudes in extreme cold seasons. Downward longwave radiation significantly influences the cooling response in northern mid-high latitudes to land use change, influenced by changes in water vapor and cloud cover, according to multi-model ensemble results.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01936-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally","authors":"Guolong Chen, Bo Fu, Yongye Jiang, Xinhao Suo, Yuqin Lai, Zhiwei Chen, Jingyi Li, Longsheng Li, Mengmeng Lu, Yunwei Tang, Huadong Guo, Ruixia Yang, Bengang Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3","url":null,"abstract":"Natural world heritage sites face increasing risk under rapid climate change, especially considering the impacts of climate extremes. However, there is not yet enough understanding of the future extreme climate challenges at global natural world heritage sites. Here we identify the exposure of 250 natural heritage sites to extreme climate events under 4 different future scenarios. We found that by 2100 under the highest emission scenario, 248 out of 250 sites were exposed to extreme climate events. Forest natural world heritage sites may face increasing pressure to complex extreme phenomena under emission rise. In tropical regions, where high temperatures may magnify the vulnerability of biodiversity, we identify 14 natural world heritage sites to be prioritised that are poor in biodiversity and expected to face high temperatures. Hence, there is an urgent need for enhanced climate change adaptation at heritage sites to minimise loss of irreplaceable values. Under high emission scenarios, 248 global natural heritage sites are projected to be exposed to extreme climate events by 2100, and the forest sites are mainly at risk, according to an analysis that combines world heritage site data and climate scenarios.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01933-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Thomas M. DeCarlo, Jordyn Cotton, Allyndaire Whelehan, Madison Gramse, Michael L. Berumen, Hugo B. Harrison, Malcolm M. McCulloch, Hannah V. Whitaker, Tori Falk, Ellen Groenvall, Kathleen Matthews
{"title":"Calcification trends in long-lived corals across the Indo-Pacific during the industrial era","authors":"Thomas M. DeCarlo, Jordyn Cotton, Allyndaire Whelehan, Madison Gramse, Michael L. Berumen, Hugo B. Harrison, Malcolm M. McCulloch, Hannah V. Whitaker, Tori Falk, Ellen Groenvall, Kathleen Matthews","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8","url":null,"abstract":"Skeletal cores from massive, long-lived coral colonies provide a unique approach to investigating the chronic effects of climate change on coral calcification across decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we show an overall decline in calcification rates during the industrial era, broadly consistent with other studies, based on 148 skeletal cores from ten reef locations throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, these declines are region-specific, modulated by the opposing influences of density and linear extension (the product of which equals calcification), and superimposed on multi-decadal oscillations. The main drivers of declines in calcification were recent marine heatwaves that induced reductions in linear extension, rather than decreasing skeletal density. Our findings contrast with some regional studies that show growth declines beginning only in recent decades, which in some cases may be the most recent troughs of multi-decadal oscillations in calcification. Calcification rates of reef-building corals have decreased across the Indo-Pacific since 1900 due to recent marine heatwaves, according to analyses of coral core samples.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01904-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"No paleoclimatic anomalies are associated with the late Eocene extraterrestrial impact events","authors":"Bridget S. Wade, Natalie K. Y. Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01874-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01874-x","url":null,"abstract":"Two distinct extraterrestrial impacts events struck the Earth less than 25,000 years apart in the late Eocene, approximately 35.65 million years ago. These resulted in the Popigai (northern Siberia) and Chesapeake Bay (eastern North America) impacts structures, the largest of the Cenozoic era. To examine the paleoclimatic consequences attributed to the late Eocene Chesapeake and Popigai extraterrestrial impact events, we present multispecies planktonic and benthic foraminiferal oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records. Here we generate data from the Gulf of Mexico, Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 94 covering 35.85 to 35.49 million years ago. No isotopic anomalies or excursions were recorded across the impact horizons. However, ~100,000 years before the impacts, a negative 0.75‰ δ18O shift occurs in planktonic foraminifera, coincident with a 0.25‰ positive change in benthic foraminifera. We interpret this as a warming of ~2 °C in the surface ocean, accompanied by 1 °C deep water cooling, but these modifications are before and not coeval with the impact horizons. Despite the close succession of two or more large extraterrestrial impact events within a short space of time (less than 25,000 years), our study from the Gulf of Mexico indicates no detectable paleoclimatic response. Paleoclimatic response was negligible in the Gulf of Mexico despite two or more extraterrestrial impact events occurring approximately 35.65 million years ago, according to stable oxygen and carbon isotope records from planktonic and benthic foraminifer.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01874-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, P. De Martino, F. Giudicepietro, G. Macedonio, P. Ricciolino
{"title":"Accelerating upper crustal deformation and seismicity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), during the 2000–2023 unrest","authors":"A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, P. De Martino, F. Giudicepietro, G. Macedonio, P. Ricciolino","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01865-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01865-y","url":null,"abstract":"Campi Flegrei is the largest active caldera in Europe and it is home to more than 350,000 people. Since 2005, the caldera has shown accelerating ground inflation and an intensification of seismic activity. Here we quantify the decadal accelerating trend alongside oscillations of various frequencies and explore the relationships between deformation and seismic activity over the period 2000 to November 2023. Results highlight the major changes that have occurred in the last four years analyzed and reveal a parabolic increase in vertical uplift and a super-exponential (squared-exponential) rise in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release. Inspection of data indicate a close temporal correlation between deformation rate and seismicity, and an exponential relationship, with an exponent increasing over time, between ground deformation and cumulative number of earthquakes. These relationships are consistent with a quasi-elastic behavior and a stress memory (Kaiser) effect of the upper crust of the caldera under an increasing stress suggesting a progressive mechanical weakening. Most importantly, they provide evidence of an accelerating sensitivity of seismic activity to caldera inflation and warn of the possibility of significant seismic events in case of continuation, with the same trends and relations, of the bradyseismic crisis in the next years. During the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest from 2000 to 2023, the upper crust had a quasi-elastic behavior and there was a parabolic increase of ground uplift and a superexponential increase in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01865-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francesco Smedile, Violetta La Cono, Stefano Urbini, Giovanni Benedetti, Gina La Spada, Francesca Crisafi, Maurizio Azzaro, Nunziatina Porcino, Stefano Fazi, Stefano Amalfitano, Franco Tassi, Orlando Vaselli, Stefania Venturi, Michael T. Madigan, John E. Hallsworth, Michail M. Yakimov
{"title":"The perennially ice-covered Lake Enigma, Antarctica supports unique microbial communities","authors":"Francesco Smedile, Violetta La Cono, Stefano Urbini, Giovanni Benedetti, Gina La Spada, Francesca Crisafi, Maurizio Azzaro, Nunziatina Porcino, Stefano Fazi, Stefano Amalfitano, Franco Tassi, Orlando Vaselli, Stefania Venturi, Michael T. Madigan, John E. Hallsworth, Michail M. Yakimov","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01842-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01842-5","url":null,"abstract":"Northern Foothills of Victoria Land, Antarctica contains numerous hydrological formations, ranging from small surface streams and ponds fed by glacial or snow meltwater to permafrost lakes containing briny pockets. Here we describe the discovery of a massive body of unfrozen stratified oligotrophic water in Lake Enigma, a permanently ice-covered lake previously thought to be frozen from top to bottom. A remarkable feature of the Lake Enigma microbial ecosystem is the presence, and sometimes even dominance, of ultrasmall bacteria belonging to the superphylum Patescibacteria, a group apparently absent from Antarctic lakes in the well-studied McMurdo Dry Valleys. Cyanobacteria are virtually absent from Lake Enigma ice and water column although they are well represented in its extensive and diverse benthic microbial mats. Collectively, these features reveal a new complexity in Antarctic lake food webs and demonstrate that in addition to phototrophic and simple chemotrophic metabolisms, both symbiotic and predatory lifestyles may exist. Unfrozen water in the perennially ice-covered Lake Enigma, Antarctica supports microbial communities distinct from those in other Antarctic lakes according to analyses of the lake’s physical structure, geochemistry, hydrological history, and microbiota.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-17"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01842-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Qianzhi Wang, Kai Liu, Wei Xie, Tariq Ali, Jinshan Wu, Ming Wang
{"title":"Photovoltaic installations are extensively deployed in areas at risk of extremely low production","authors":"Qianzhi Wang, Kai Liu, Wei Xie, Tariq Ali, Jinshan Wu, Ming Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01932-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01932-4","url":null,"abstract":"Photovoltaic (PV) installations have rapidly and extensively been deployed worldwide as a promising alternative renewable energy source. However, weather anomalies could expose them to challenges in supply security by causing very low power production. Using reanalysis weather data from 1986 to 2021 and a high-resolution global inventory of PV installations, we assess the impact of extreme low-production (ELP) events across various regions. Our results reveal that regions between 60°N and 60°S experience an average of 27 ELP events annually, with 17% of these events being high-intensity. Regions with dense PV installations—including Southern China, Central and Northern Europe, Central and Eastern America, and Japan—are particularly affected. These areas, which collectively host approximately half of the global PV installations, see 44% of ELP events being high-intensity. Maintaining a daily backup supply equivalent to the average event intensity could recover 39% to 81% of events across different sites. This strategy helps ensure a stable energy supply despite the unpredictability of extreme weather events. Southern China, Central and N Europe, Central and Eastern America, and Japan are areas with dense photovoltaic installations, and they are particularly affected by extremely low production events, according to an analysis that uses weather data and an inventory of photovoltaic installations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01932-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762964","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Mingshuai Zhu, Daniel Pastor–Galán, Matthijs A. Smit, Laicheng Miao, Miao Dong, Fuqin Zhang, Dorjgochoo Sanchir, Ariuntsetseg Ganbat, Chenghao Liu, Ye Luo, Shun Li
{"title":"Ophiolites in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt record Cambrian subduction initiation processes","authors":"Mingshuai Zhu, Daniel Pastor–Galán, Matthijs A. Smit, Laicheng Miao, Miao Dong, Fuqin Zhang, Dorjgochoo Sanchir, Ariuntsetseg Ganbat, Chenghao Liu, Ye Luo, Shun Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01905-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01905-7","url":null,"abstract":"Subduction initiation remains elusive because no present example exists. Ophiolites formed over nascent subduction zones in the past provide the key to constraining the processes of subduction initiation. Here we document three Cambrian ophiolites with supra-subduction zone affinity, which likely reflect the inception of a plate-boundary scale subduction zone within the Paleo-Asian Ocean. Our findings, together with a compilation of Cambrian ophiolites in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt, indicate diachronous subduction initiation(s) along a > 6000 kilometer zone within the Paleo-Asian Ocean between 536 and 528 million years ago. The subduction initiation of the Paleo-Asian Ocean coincides with the closure of the Mirovoi Ocean following the collision of a series of microcontinents with the Siberian craton, likely representing a typical record of collision-induced subduction jump. Our observations and numerical modeling provide a new scenario that subduction initiations would locate at oceanic weak zones rather than passive margins of accreted microcontinents during collision-induced subduction process. The initiation of a subduction zone in the Paleo-Asian Ocean approximately 530 million years ago is recorded in ophiolites formed through subduction initiation processes, according to geochemical data from ophiolites in the Mongol Altai and Trans Altai mountains belonging to the Central Asian Orogenic Belt and numerical modeling.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01905-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762907","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Niclas Rieger, Estrella Olmedo, Martin Thiel, Vanessa Sarah Salvo, Daniela Honorato-Zimmer, Nelson Vásquez, Antonio Turiel, Jaume Piera
{"title":"Seasonal hotspots of beach litter in the North-East Atlantic linked to aquaculture and river runoff","authors":"Niclas Rieger, Estrella Olmedo, Martin Thiel, Vanessa Sarah Salvo, Daniela Honorato-Zimmer, Nelson Vásquez, Antonio Turiel, Jaume Piera","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01913-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01913-7","url":null,"abstract":"Macroplastic pollution is a pervasive global environmental challenge, adversely affecting marine ecosystems, wildlife and human health. Understanding temporal variations is crucial for identifying pollution sources and developing effective mitigation policies. However, in-situ data from beach surveys are often irregular, both spatially and temporally, and highly variable, complicating robust statistical conclusions. Here we employ a Bayesian machine learning framework to investigate seasonal variations, identify regional hotspots and elucidate their anthropogenic drivers. Using data from 3866 surveys across 168 western European beaches, we leverage a spatial log-Gaussian Cox Process to enhance statistical inference by integrating information from nearby beaches. Distinct seasonal patterns emerge, with winter and spring exhibiting the highest pollution levels, while pronounced regional differences highlight seasonal pollution hotspots in the western Iberian Peninsula, French coastline, Irish Sea and Skagerrak region. These peaks are attributed to riverine emissions and aquaculture activities, highlighting the potential impact of these sources on beach pollution. Our findings advocate for enhanced, time-specific monitoring to effectively manage litter hotspots, emphasizing the importance of aquaculture-related plastic emissions. Seasonal variations in beach litter on North East Atlantic coastlines are driven by riverine and aquaculture inputs, and are likely to be exacerbated by adverse weather conditions in the future, according to a machine learning framework informed by beach litter survey data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01913-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142754220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}