Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第10页

Cooling efficacy of trees across cities is determined by background climate, urban morphology, and tree trait 城市树木的降温效果由背景气候、城市形态和树木特性决定

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-10 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01908-4

Haiwei Li, Yongling Zhao, Chenghao Wang, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Jan Carmeliet, Ronita Bardhan

{"title":"Cooling efficacy of trees across cities is determined by background climate, urban morphology, and tree trait","authors":"Haiwei Li, Yongling Zhao, Chenghao Wang, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, Jan Carmeliet, Ronita Bardhan","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01908-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01908-4","url":null,"abstract":"Urban planners and other stakeholders often view trees as the ultimate panacea for mitigating urban heat stress; however, their cooling efficacy varies globally and is influenced by three primary factors: tree traits, urban morphology, and climate conditions. This study analyzes 182 studies on the cooling effects of urban trees across 17 climates in 110 global cities or regions. Tree implementation reduces peak monthly temperatures to below 26 °C in 83% of the cities. Trees can lower pedestrian-level temperatures by up to 12 °C through large radiation blockage and transpiration. In tropical, temperate, and continental climates, a mixed-use of deciduous and evergreen trees in open urban morphology provides approximately 0.5 °C more cooling than a single species approach. In arid climates, evergreen species predominate and demonstrate more effective cooling within compact urban morphology. Our study offers context-specific greening guidelines for urban planners to harness tree cooling in the face of global warming. Urban trees can lower pedestrian-level air temperature by up to 12 degrees centigrade, and the cooling efficacy depends on background climate, urban morphology, and tree trait, according to a global meta-analysis of 182 studies.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01908-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142798551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate 在不断变化的气候下，热带气旋对美国海上风能的威胁加剧

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6

Serena Lipari, Karthik Balaguru, Julian Rice, Sha Feng, Wenwei Xu, Larry K. Berg, David Judi

{"title":"Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate","authors":"Serena Lipari, Karthik Balaguru, Julian Rice, Sha Feng, Wenwei Xu, Larry K. Berg, David Judi","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01887-6","url":null,"abstract":"The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for offshore wind energy development. Assessing the impact of projected climate change on tropical cyclones, and consequently on offshore wind resources, is thus critical for effective risk management. Herein, we investigate the evolving risk to offshore wind turbines posed by Atlantic tropical cyclones in a non-stationary climate using a synthetic tropical cyclone model. Integrated with climate model simulations, projections show widespread increases in tropical cyclone exposure, with historical 20-year storms occurring every  ~12.7 years on average, increasing in intensity by about 9.3 ms−1. Subsequent fragility analysis reveals that the probabilities of turbine yielding and buckling from a 20-year tropical cyclone could increase by about 37% and 13%, respectively, with regional increases reaching up to 51%. These findings carry substantial implications for the operation and future expansion of offshore wind farms. Climate change increases US offshore wind energy vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with turbine yielding and buckling probabilities rising by 37% and 13% resulting from a 20-year storm, according to a synthetic tropical cyclone model analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01887-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142798579","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Three profiles of Australian climate change activism have both unique and overlapping motivators and barriers 澳大利亚气候变化行动主义的三个侧面既有独特的又有重叠的动机和障碍

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01871-0

Kathleen C. Whitson, Peta Callaghan, David Thorpe, Anastasia Ejova

{"title":"Three profiles of Australian climate change activism have both unique and overlapping motivators and barriers","authors":"Kathleen C. Whitson, Peta Callaghan, David Thorpe, Anastasia Ejova","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01871-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01871-0","url":null,"abstract":"Since non-violent activism is known to be effective in achieving policy change, organisations seeking to encourage climate activism would benefit from an evidence base describing activism behaviours, motivators, and barriers among people higher, lower, and in between in terms of climate activism involvement. We surveyed 519 Australians alarmed by climate change regarding participation in 18 activism behaviours. A latent class analysis identified three activism levels: Least (23%), Moderate (55%), and Most (22%). The Most Active participants were at least 75% likely to engage in 13 behaviours. The only demographic difference between classes is that participants in the Least Active class were younger. Across classes, the most common reported motivators related to issue importance and action efficacy. Reported barriers were more behaviour-specific, with frequent references to lack of experience and knowledge for financial activism and engagement with climate organisations. Six practical applications for promoting climate activism are discussed. Australians alarmed by climate change report the same motivators for their chosen behaviors, but barriers differ across behaviors and do not depend on the individual’s breadth of activity, according to an analysis that combines a survey of 519 individuals and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01871-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142798591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can generate sustainable hydropower while minimizing downstream water deficit during prolonged droughts 大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝可以产生可持续的水力发电，同时在长期干旱期间最大限度地减少下游的缺水

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01821-w

Essam Heggy, Abotalib Z. Abotalib, Jongeun You, Emmanuel Hanert, Mohamed Ramah

{"title":"Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam can generate sustainable hydropower while minimizing downstream water deficit during prolonged droughts","authors":"Essam Heggy, Abotalib Z. Abotalib, Jongeun You, Emmanuel Hanert, Mohamed Ramah","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01821-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01821-w","url":null,"abstract":"Optimizing hydropower generation from the Nile upstream mega-dams during prolonged droughts while minimizing the downstream water deficit is the cornerstone in resolving the ongoing major water conflict in the Eastern Nile River Basin. A decade of negotiation and mediation has been unsuccessful, mainly due to the hydraulic uncertainties associated with operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam during prolonged droughts. Based on the negotiation outcomes, we provide comprehensive assessments of the efficiency of multiple drought-mitigation policies for the impact of dam operation. Our results suggest it can generate almost optimal hydropower without a noticeable downstream deficit during wet, average, and temporary drought flow conditions. For prolonged drought, we identify an ideal operation policy allowing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to generate a sustainable energy of 87% of its optimal hydropower without generating additional downstream water deficit. Furthermore, we provide four intermediate policies demonstrating enhanced upstream hydropower generation while minimizing dam-induced downstream water deficits. Our findings attempt to bridge the negotiation disparities in the Nile hydropower mega-dams operations during prolonged drought and foster an actionable and collaborative framework. Nile’s river mega-dams can operate collaboratively to generate upstream sustainable hydropower and minimize downstream water deficit during drought events, according to an analysis that combines the water resources systems model and policy scenarios.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-15"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01821-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142798599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Discrepancies in lacustrine bacterial lipid temperature reconstructions explained by microbial ecology 微生物生态学解释了湖泊细菌脂质温度重建的差异

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01925-3

Jie Liang, Manuel Chevalier, Keshao Liu, Amedea Perfumo, Mingda Wang, Haichao Xie, Juzhi Hou, Ulrike Herzschuh, Fahu Chen

{"title":"Discrepancies in lacustrine bacterial lipid temperature reconstructions explained by microbial ecology","authors":"Jie Liang, Manuel Chevalier, Keshao Liu, Amedea Perfumo, Mingda Wang, Haichao Xie, Juzhi Hou, Ulrike Herzschuh, Fahu Chen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01925-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01925-3","url":null,"abstract":"Bacterial lipid branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are a valuable tool for reconstructing past temperatures. However, a gap remains regarding the influence of bacterial communities on brGDGT profiles. Here, we identified two distinct patterns of brGDGTs from the surface sediments of 38 Tibetan Plateau lakes using an unsupervised clustering technique. Further investigation revealed that salinity and pH significantly change bacterial community composition, affecting brGDGT profiles and causing brGDGT-based temperatures to be overestimated by up to 2.7 ± 0.7 °C in haloalkaline environments. We subsequently used the trained clustering model to examine the patterns of bacterial assemblages in the global lacustrine brGDGT dataset, confirming the global applicability of our approach. We finally applied our approach to Holocene brGDGT records from the Tibetan Plateau, showing that shifts in bacterial clusters amplified temperature variations over timescales. Our findings demonstrate that microbial ecology can robustly diagnose and constrain site-specific discrepancies in temperature reconstruction. Salinity and pH-driven variations in microbial communities significantly affect bacterial lipid compositions, leading to temperature overestimations in reconstructions, based on machine learning clustering of lake sediment data and bacterial analysis.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01925-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Land-use induced changes in extreme temperature predominantly influenced by downward longwave radiation 土地利用引起的极端温度变化主要受向下长波辐射的影响

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01936-0

Meng Zhang, Yanhong Gao, Mingfang Ting, Yan Yu, Guoyin Wang

{"title":"Land-use induced changes in extreme temperature predominantly influenced by downward longwave radiation","authors":"Meng Zhang, Yanhong Gao, Mingfang Ting, Yan Yu, Guoyin Wang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01936-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01936-0","url":null,"abstract":"Land use is key in regulating surface temperature, yet these relationships are often obscured by long-term mean responses. Here we employed numerical multi-model results to investigate the response of the surface temperature to land use change, especially its lower tails corresponding to boreal winter. The surface temperature decrease in the lower tails can exhibit up to ten times greater than the mean response to land use change over both the historical and future periods. Downward longwave radiation has emerged as the most remarkable contributing factor in controlling surface temperature change in mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Land use change can modify surface energy balance through land-atmosphere firstly, thereby regulate spatial patterns of water vapor and cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere through teleconnection. The unity of local and remote effects influences the levels of downward longwave radiation and altering surface temperature at mid-high latitudes in extreme cold seasons. Downward longwave radiation significantly influences the cooling response in northern mid-high latitudes to land use change, influenced by changes in water vapor and cloud cover, according to multi-model ensemble results.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01936-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally 世界自然遗产正面临全球气候变化的威胁

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-05 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3

Guolong Chen, Bo Fu, Yongye Jiang, Xinhao Suo, Yuqin Lai, Zhiwei Chen, Jingyi Li, Longsheng Li, Mengmeng Lu, Yunwei Tang, Huadong Guo, Ruixia Yang, Bengang Li

{"title":"Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally","authors":"Guolong Chen, Bo Fu, Yongye Jiang, Xinhao Suo, Yuqin Lai, Zhiwei Chen, Jingyi Li, Longsheng Li, Mengmeng Lu, Yunwei Tang, Huadong Guo, Ruixia Yang, Bengang Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3","url":null,"abstract":"Natural world heritage sites face increasing risk under rapid climate change, especially considering the impacts of climate extremes. However, there is not yet enough understanding of the future extreme climate challenges at global natural world heritage sites. Here we identify the exposure of 250 natural heritage sites to extreme climate events under 4 different future scenarios. We found that by 2100 under the highest emission scenario, 248 out of 250 sites were exposed to extreme climate events. Forest natural world heritage sites may face increasing pressure to complex extreme phenomena under emission rise. In tropical regions, where high temperatures may magnify the vulnerability of biodiversity, we identify 14 natural world heritage sites to be prioritised that are poor in biodiversity and expected to face high temperatures. Hence, there is an urgent need for enhanced climate change adaptation at heritage sites to minimise loss of irreplaceable values. Under high emission scenarios, 248 global natural heritage sites are projected to be exposed to extreme climate events by 2100, and the forest sites are mainly at risk, according to an analysis that combines world heritage site data and climate scenarios.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01933-3.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142778654","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Calcification trends in long-lived corals across the Indo-Pacific during the industrial era 工业时代印度太平洋地区长寿命珊瑚的钙化趋势

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8

Thomas M. DeCarlo, Jordyn Cotton, Allyndaire Whelehan, Madison Gramse, Michael L. Berumen, Hugo B. Harrison, Malcolm M. McCulloch, Hannah V. Whitaker, Tori Falk, Ellen Groenvall, Kathleen Matthews

{"title":"Calcification trends in long-lived corals across the Indo-Pacific during the industrial era","authors":"Thomas M. DeCarlo, Jordyn Cotton, Allyndaire Whelehan, Madison Gramse, Michael L. Berumen, Hugo B. Harrison, Malcolm M. McCulloch, Hannah V. Whitaker, Tori Falk, Ellen Groenvall, Kathleen Matthews","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01904-8","url":null,"abstract":"Skeletal cores from massive, long-lived coral colonies provide a unique approach to investigating the chronic effects of climate change on coral calcification across decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we show an overall decline in calcification rates during the industrial era, broadly consistent with other studies, based on 148 skeletal cores from ten reef locations throughout the Indo-Pacific. However, these declines are region-specific, modulated by the opposing influences of density and linear extension (the product of which equals calcification), and superimposed on multi-decadal oscillations. The main drivers of declines in calcification were recent marine heatwaves that induced reductions in linear extension, rather than decreasing skeletal density. Our findings contrast with some regional studies that show growth declines beginning only in recent decades, which in some cases may be the most recent troughs of multi-decadal oscillations in calcification. Calcification rates of reef-building corals have decreased across the Indo-Pacific since 1900 due to recent marine heatwaves, according to analyses of coral core samples.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01904-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

No paleoclimatic anomalies are associated with the late Eocene extraterrestrial impact events 古气候异常与始新世晚期地外撞击事件无关

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-04 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01874-x

Bridget S. Wade, Natalie K. Y. Cheng

{"title":"No paleoclimatic anomalies are associated with the late Eocene extraterrestrial impact events","authors":"Bridget S. Wade, Natalie K. Y. Cheng","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01874-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01874-x","url":null,"abstract":"Two distinct extraterrestrial impacts events struck the Earth less than 25,000 years apart in the late Eocene, approximately 35.65 million years ago. These resulted in the Popigai (northern Siberia) and Chesapeake Bay (eastern North America) impacts structures, the largest of the Cenozoic era. To examine the paleoclimatic consequences attributed to the late Eocene Chesapeake and Popigai extraterrestrial impact events, we present multispecies planktonic and benthic foraminiferal oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) isotope records. Here we generate data from the Gulf of Mexico, Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 94 covering 35.85 to 35.49 million years ago. No isotopic anomalies or excursions were recorded across the impact horizons. However, ~100,000 years before the impacts, a negative 0.75‰ δ18O shift occurs in planktonic foraminifera, coincident with a 0.25‰ positive change in benthic foraminifera. We interpret this as a warming of ~2 °C in the surface ocean, accompanied by 1 °C deep water cooling, but these modifications are before and not coeval with the impact horizons. Despite the close succession of two or more large extraterrestrial impact events within a short space of time (less than 25,000 years), our study from the Gulf of Mexico indicates no detectable paleoclimatic response. Paleoclimatic response was negligible in the Gulf of Mexico despite two or more extraterrestrial impact events occurring approximately 35.65 million years ago, according to stable oxygen and carbon isotope records from planktonic and benthic foraminifer.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01874-x.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Accelerating upper crustal deformation and seismicity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), during the 2000–2023 unrest 2000-2023年意大利Campi Flegrei火山口的地壳加速变形和地震活动性

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-03 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01865-y

A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, P. De Martino, F. Giudicepietro, G. Macedonio, P. Ricciolino

{"title":"Accelerating upper crustal deformation and seismicity of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), during the 2000–2023 unrest","authors":"A. Bevilacqua, A. Neri, P. De Martino, F. Giudicepietro, G. Macedonio, P. Ricciolino","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01865-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01865-y","url":null,"abstract":"Campi Flegrei is the largest active caldera in Europe and it is home to more than 350,000 people. Since 2005, the caldera has shown accelerating ground inflation and an intensification of seismic activity. Here we quantify the decadal accelerating trend alongside oscillations of various frequencies and explore the relationships between deformation and seismic activity over the period 2000 to November 2023. Results highlight the major changes that have occurred in the last four years analyzed and reveal a parabolic increase in vertical uplift and a super-exponential (squared-exponential) rise in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release. Inspection of data indicate a close temporal correlation between deformation rate and seismicity, and an exponential relationship, with an exponent increasing over time, between ground deformation and cumulative number of earthquakes. These relationships are consistent with a quasi-elastic behavior and a stress memory (Kaiser) effect of the upper crust of the caldera under an increasing stress suggesting a progressive mechanical weakening. Most importantly, they provide evidence of an accelerating sensitivity of seismic activity to caldera inflation and warn of the possibility of significant seismic events in case of continuation, with the same trends and relations, of the bradyseismic crisis in the next years. During the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest from 2000 to 2023, the upper crust had a quasi-elastic behavior and there was a parabolic increase of ground uplift and a superexponential increase in the number of earthquakes and seismic energy release.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-14"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01865-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142762900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0