Communications Earth & Environment最新文献

{"title":"The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink","authors":"Michael O’Sullivan, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ingrid T. Luijkx, Wouter Peters, Thais M. Rosan, Almut Arneth, Vivek K. Arora, Naveen Chandra, Frédéric Chevallier, Philippe Ciais, Stefanie Falk, Liang Feng, Thomas Gasser, Richard A. Houghton, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Daniel Kennedy, Jürgen Knauer, Matthew J. McGrath, Yosuke Niwa, Paul I. Palmer, Prabir K. Patra, Julia Pongratz, Benjamin Poulter, Christian Rödenbeck, Clemens Schwingshackl, Qing Sun, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Dongxu Yang, Wenping Yuan, Xu Yue, Sönke Zaehle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01827-4","url":null,"abstract":"Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr−1). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results. A satellite-based estimate of forest regrowth carbon flux across the Northern Hemisphere suggests forest disturbance and regrowth are transient but important aspects of the carbon sink that may explain underestimates from dynamic global vegetation models","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-10"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01827-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Reduced aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event","authors":"Yuling Hu, Haipeng Yu, Shichang Kang, Mian Xu, Siyu Chen, Junhua Yang, Xintong Chen, Jixiang Li","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01889-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01889-4","url":null,"abstract":"Aerosols from South Asia directly enhance glacier melt over the Tibetan Plateau. While the transboundary transport of aerosols from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau has been extensively investigated from a tropospheric perspective, less focus has been given to the stratospheric dimension. Here we examined the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021 on aerosol transport from South Asia towards the Tibetan Plateau via numerical simulation. The results revealed that the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau reduced by 30%–40% following the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming event. The eastward-propagating wave train stimulated by the stratospheric sudden warming induced an anticyclonic anomaly from the Persian Gulf to northern China, south of which easterly anomalies hindered the aerosol transport from South Asia to the Plateau. This study provides valuable insights for predicting air quality over the Tibetan Plateau. Following a sudden stratospheric warming event in 2021, transport of aerosols from South Asia to the Tibetan Plateau was suppressed as a result of changes in the tropospheric circulation, according to analyses with a weather forecasting model with a chemistry component.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01889-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645819","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Unveiling the devastating effect of the spring 2022 mega-heatwave on the South Asian snowpack","authors":"Waqar ul Hassan, Munir Ahmad Nayak, Md Saquib Saharwardi, Junaid Ahmad Dar, Hari Prasad Dasari, Ibrahim Hoteit, Yasser Abualnaja","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01857-y","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming has led to a notable increase in heatwaves globally and regionally. In spring 2022, South Asia witnessed an unprecedented heatwave with temperatures breaking historical records and exceeding 5° C from climatological mean at several locations in the northern Indian subcontinent. Here, using 3D tracking, this heatwave ranked the most severe in the past 64 years, characterized by its protracted duration and wide spatial extent. The excess atmospheric heat, represented by temperature anomalies, during the mega-heatwave triggered rapid snowmelt across the snow-covered areas in the region, leading to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack. This rapid melting resulted in the complete disappearance of low-level snowpack in the western Himalayas, Pir Panjal, and Afghanistan highlands, leading to the lowest snowpack observed in the last six decades. Moreover, during the heatwave, the amount of snowfall received was only 29% of the long-term average. This combination of excessive melting and reduced snowfall culminated in a severe regional snow drought in spring 2022. The heatwave genesis lay a persistent high-pressure system over Northwest South Asia, reinforced by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave packet over Europe during the initial spell. Continuous heat from high-pressure ridges associated with circumglobal Rossby waves combined with the physical barrier of the Himalayas, lent staying power to this system during the second phase. An unprecedented heatwave in South Asia driven by a persistent high-pressure system coupled with a Rossby wave packet during spring 2022 led to an average loss of 42% in snow cover and 57% in snow depth of the regional snowpack, according to analysis of satellite observations and ERA5 reanalysis data.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01857-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645816","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Climate change scenarios forecast increased drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States","authors":"M. van den Bosch, J. K. Costanza, R. A. Peek, J. M. Mola, Z. L. Steel","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01880-z","url":null,"abstract":"Anthropogenic climate change is altering patterns of extreme weather events across the planet, with far-ranging consequences for biodiversity. Increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of droughts are anticipated to substantially impact natural ecosystems. Here, we predicted the extent to which 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the contiguous United States will be increasingly exposed to annual (12-month) and prolonged (36-month) drought, under three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways. On average, a 377% increase in annual drought exposure and a 579% increase in prolonged drought exposure are anticipated for the study area by 2050–2080, compared to 1950–2005. Species in the southwestern USA could see the largest increases in drought exposure, while this area also has the highest vertebrate diversity and an abundance of drought-threatened species. Our results aid in identifying vertebrates and ecoregions anticipated to see large increases in drought exposure, which can inform conservation strategies aimed at mitigating vertebrate extinction risks. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly increase drought exposure for 1221 terrestrial vertebrates in the United States, with an average increase of 377% for annual drought and 579% for prolonged drought by 2050–2080, according to analysis of different climate scenarios to assess drought exposure across species and ecoregions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01880-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142645812","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Health benefits of reduced deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon","authors":"Yannic Damm, Jan Börner, Nicolas Gerber, Britaldo Soares-Filho","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01840-7","url":null,"abstract":"The conversion of tropical forests in the Amazon region for agriculture and other land uses is associated with health risks linked, for example, to air and water pollution from forest fires and agrochemical use. Several conservation policies introduced in the 2000s aimed at reducing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Here we exploit variations in the regional targeting of these policies to measure human health externalities of conservation policy enforcement using a double-difference approach at close distance to the Amazon biome border. We find that the change in deforestation pressure reduces forest fire incidence. As a consequence, fine particulate matter concentrations in the air—a main vector for adverse health effects of fire smoke—also decrease. This leads to a reduction in the hospitalization and death prevalence rate due to respiratory health problems and other health benefits for the local population. Forest conservation policies driving reduced deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon improves local air quality and decreases hospitalization and mortality rates due to respiratory diseases of the population, as quantified with impact evaluation methods","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01840-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636999","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Glacier surge as a trigger for the fastest delta growth in the Arctic","authors":"J. Kavan, M. C. Strzelecki, D. I. Benn, A. Luckman, M. Roman, P. Zagórski","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01877-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01877-8","url":null,"abstract":"The widespread retreat of Svalbard glaciers has been frequently interrupted by short-lived surge advances. In the case of marine-terminating glaciers this is often expressed in the remodelling of coastal zones. Here, we analyzed the coastal zone changes in front of the recently surging Recherchebreen. The glacier advanced ca 1200 m since 2018 and suddenly stopped in June 2020 followed by the rapid formation of a delta system in front of its subglacial meltwater outlet. The delta advanced by ca 450 m with probably the fastest progradation rate ever detected in the Arctic region (ca 7 m/day). The synchroneity of the final slow-down of the glacier with the delta building indicates that this event records the release of stored water and sediments from beneath the glacier and thus provides direct evidence of drainage reorganisation at the termination of a surge. Such behaviour is likely common among Svalbard surging glaciers, but it only rarely leaves any direct geomorphic evidence. The Recherchebreen glacier in Svalbard, which had been advancing at 1200 m since 2018, abruptly stopped in June 2020, forming a rapid delta system with a daily progradation rate of 7 meters, suggesting drainage reorganization at the end of the surge, according to analysis of the changes in the coastal zone of the Recherchebreen glacier.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01877-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Tectonic control on great earthquake periodicity in south-central Chile","authors":"Diego Aedo, Daniel Melnick, Marco Cisternas, Dominik Brill","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01834-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01834-5","url":null,"abstract":"Multi-millennial records of great megathrust earthquakes have highlighted differences in periodicity and recurrence behavior. Understanding tectonic processes responsible for these differences is relevant for fault mechanics and hazard models. Here, we present a paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges in the 2010 Maule earthquake (Mw 8.8) segment in south-central Chile that includes 24 interseismic intervals over 4.5 kyr suggesting a weakly-periodic recurrence behavior. In turn, great earthquakes in the adjacent 1960 Valdivia earthquake (Mw 9.5) segment occurred with periodic recurrence over the same time span. Both segments have similar trench sediments thicknesses as well as rheological and geometrical boundary conditions, but Maule has a wider frontal accretionary wedge and several splay faults rooted in the seismogenic zone whereas Valdivia lacks splay faults and trench sediments are mostly subducted and underplated. These differences may have an impact on upper-plate compliance and megathrust friction, affecting earthquake size and recurrence periodicity. A paleoseismic record inferred from raised beach ridges along the Maule earthquake segment of the south-central Chilean margin displays weakly-periodic recurrence behaviour in comparison to strong periodicity over the nearby Valdivia segment","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01834-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Impact of tropical cyclones and socioeconomic exposure on flood risk distribution in the Mekong Basin","authors":"Aifang Chen, Yadu Pokhrel, Deliang Chen, Hao Huang, Zhijun Dai, Bin He, Jie Wang, Jiaye Li, Hong Wang, Junguo Liu","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01868-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01868-9","url":null,"abstract":"Tropical cyclones have a big impact on flood risk, and understanding how their activity interacts with population exposure under climate change is critical. Here we investigate spatiotemporal changes in flood risk using numerical models together with historical observations and future projections of tropical cyclone tracks. We find that tropical cyclone-related flood risk shifts from the Mekong Delta to the eastern lower Mekong Basin, driven by the interaction between tropical cyclones and population exposure. Historically, extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones increased flood risk in about 14% and decreased in 7% of the basin. Future tropical cyclones may increase flood risk in about 7% and reduce in nearly 18% of the basin. Moreover, population exposure growth has historically increased flood risk in 3% of the basin and is projected to result in a 1% increase. These findings highlight the complex interactions of tropical cyclone hazards and socioeconomic factors influencing flood risk. The geographical distribution of flood risk in the Mekong Basin has changed as a result of shifts in extreme precipitation from tropical cyclones as well as population exposure and is projected to continue to evolve, according to simulations with a hydrological-hydrodynamic model and observations.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01868-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142636990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Root exudates simultaneously form and disrupt soil organo-mineral associations","authors":"Itamar A. Shabtai, Benjamin D. Hafner, Steffen A. Schweizer, Carmen Höschen, Angela Possinger, Johannes Lehmann, Taryn Bauerle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01879-6","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01879-6","url":null,"abstract":"Organic compounds exuded by plant roots can form organo-mineral associations through physico-chemical interactions with soil minerals but can disrupt existing organo-mineral associations by increasing their microbial decomposition and dissolution. The controls on these opposing processes are poorly understood, as are the chemical and spatial characteristics of these associations which may explain gain or loss of organic matter at the root-soil interface termed the rhizosphere. By pulse-labeling with 13C-carbon dioxide, we found that maize root exudates increased organic matter in the rhizosphere clay size fraction and decreased organic matter in the silt size fraction, and that organic matter loss was mitigated by dry conditions. Organic matter associated with rhizosphere clay particles was linked to microbial metabolism of exudates and was more spatially and chemically heterogeneous than non-rhizosphere clay particles. Our findings show that root exudates can simultaneously form and disrupt organo-mineral associations, mediated by mineral size and composition, and soil moisture. Compounds released by plant roots can stimulate carbon storage in clay fraction of soils and carbon loss in the silt fraction of soils at the same time, according to experiments on maize plants labelled with carbon-13.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01879-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637007","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Proximity to active volcanoes enhances glacier velocity","authors":"Joseph Mallalieu, Iestyn D. Barr, Matteo Spagnolo, Donal J. Mullan, Elias Symeonakis, Benjamin R. Edwards, Michael D. Martin","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01826-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01826-5","url":null,"abstract":"Volcanic heating is predicted by theory to affect the velocity of nearby glaciers. However, conclusive studies on a large scale are lacking. Here, we conduct a global comparison of the velocities of glaciers near active volcanoes (i.e. within 5 km) and those located elsewhere ( > 5 km from an active volcano). Our findings show that, when considered over an annual scale (e.g. 2017-2018) and controlling for other factors, glaciers near volcanoes flow 46% faster than those located elsewhere (based on median values). This finding strongly suggests that volcanic heating impacts glacier velocity at a global scale, and supports the idea that glacier velocity monitoring could be a valuable indirect tool to help volcano monitoring and eruption prediction, particularly where volcanic heating (and therefore subglacial melt) intensifies months or years prior to eruptions. Glaciers near active volcanoes flow 46% faster than those in other locations, according to a global analysis of glacier velocity over 1 year which suggests anomalous accelerations of glaciers might indicate increased activity of the nearby volcano","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-7"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01826-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142637009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}