Oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts.

Abstract

UK droughts are projected to become more frequent under climate change, reinforcing the need to understand their underlying causes. Our study examines oceanic drivers of UK summer droughts and the associated teleconnection pathways. Specifically, we evaluate statistical links between standardized precipitation and streamflow indices for the UK and two North Atlantic Sea surface temperature (SST) patterns which have previously been linked to the influx of freshwater into the subpolar region. Our findings reveal that the North Atlantic SST influences UK hydrology up to 1.5 years in advance by altering the position of the North Atlantic Current, which is coupled to the location of the North Atlantic summer jet stream. The long lead time of this teleconnection pathway can inform UK drought forecasting across seasonal to interannual timescales and ultimately contribute to the advancement of sustainable water resource management in the face of increasing drought risks in the UK.