Strong polar vortex favoured intense Northern European storminess in February 2022.

IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-27 DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02175-7
Ryan S Williams, Amanda C Maycock, Vincent Charnay, Jeff Knight, Inna Polichtchouk
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

February 2022 was an unusually stormy month over Northern Europe, including three extratropical cyclones impacting the United Kingdom and Ireland within a single week. The month also experienced an exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex; however, the role of this in preconditioning the risk of extratropical cyclone hazards has not been explored. Here we use constrained subseasonal forecasts to isolate the effect of the strong stratospheric polar vortex on the North Atlantic storm track in February 2022. We estimate the strong polar vortex led to a 1.5-3-fold increase in the likelihood of a cyclone with comparable intensity to the most intense storm that impacted the United Kingdom. We also show an increased likelihood of 3 or more storms reaching the United Kingdom in a single week by ~80% compared to if the polar vortex had been of average intensity. Using a storm severity index, we estimate a 3-4-fold increase in wind gust hazards over Scandinavia and Scotland and increases in monthly precipitation over Scotland, northern England and Ireland, and Scandinavia. The results show that the strengthened stratospheric polar vortex enhanced the risk of extreme North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, serial cyclone clustering, and their associated impacts over northern Europe in February 2022.

2022年2月,强大的极地涡旋有利于强烈的北欧风暴。
2022年2月是北欧异常多雨的一个月,其中三个温带气旋在一周内影响了英国和爱尔兰。当月还经历了异常强烈的平流层极地涡旋;然而,这在预调节温带气旋灾害风险中的作用尚未得到探讨。在这里,我们使用受限的亚季节预报来分离出2022年2月北大西洋风暴路径中平流层强极地涡旋的影响。我们估计,强极地涡旋导致气旋发生的可能性增加了1.5-3倍,其强度与影响英国的最强烈风暴相当。我们还显示,与极地涡旋的平均强度相比,在一周内到达英国的3次或更多风暴的可能性增加了约80%。使用风暴严重性指数,我们估计斯堪的纳维亚半岛和苏格兰的阵风危险增加了3-4倍,苏格兰、英格兰北部和爱尔兰以及斯堪的纳维亚半岛的月降水量增加。结果表明:2022年2月,平流层极涡的增强增加了北大西洋极端温带气旋、系列气旋聚集及其对北欧地区的影响风险;
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
Communications Earth & Environment
Communications Earth & Environment Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
2.50%
发文量
269
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊介绍: Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science. Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.
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