Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第3页

Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO₂ uptake in Earth system models. 在地球系统模型中，氮沉降的增加只会导致二氧化碳吸收量的轻微增加。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1

Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K Arora, Chris D Jones, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Spencer K Liddicoat, Alexander J Winkler, Sönke Zaehle

{"title":"Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake in Earth system models.","authors":"Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K Arora, Chris D Jones, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Spencer K Liddicoat, Alexander J Winkler, Sönke Zaehle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1","url":null,"abstract":"Current frameworks for evaluating biogeochemical climate change feedbacks in Earth System Models lack an explicit consideration of nitrogen cycling in the land and ocean spheres despite its vital role in limiting primary productivity. As coupled carbon-nitrogen cycling becomes the norm, a better understanding of the role of nitrogen cycling is needed. Here we develop a new framework for quantifying carbon-nitrogen feedbacks in Earth System Models and show that rising nitrogen deposition acts as a negative feedback over both land and ocean, enhancing carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation in a model ensemble. However, increased CO2 uptake due to rising nitrogen deposition is small relative to the large reduction in CO2 uptake when coupled carbon-nitrogen cycling is implemented in Earth System Models. Altogether, rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake but also enhances nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions over land and ocean, contributing only marginally to mitigating climate change.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"216"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11922751/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An interpretable machine learning model for seasonal precipitation forecasting. 季节降水预报的可解释机器学习模型。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2

Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B M J Ouarda

{"title":"An interpretable machine learning model for seasonal precipitation forecasting.","authors":"Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B M J Ouarda","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2","url":null,"abstract":"Seasonal climate forecasting is important for societal welfare, as it supports decision-makers in taking proactive steps to mitigate risks from adverse climate conditions or to take advantage of favorable ones. Here, we introduce TelNet, a sequence-to-sequence machine learning model for short-to-medium lead seasonal precipitation forecasting. The model takes past seasonal precipitation values and climate indices to predict an empirical precipitation distribution for every grid point of the target region for the next six overlapping seasons. TelNet has a simple encoder-decoder-head architecture, allowing the model to be trained with a limited amount of data, as is often the case in climate forecasting. Its deterministic and probabilistic performance is thoroughly evaluated and compared with state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models in a prominent region for seasonal forecasting studies due to its high climate predictability. The training, validation, and test sets are resampled multiple times to estimate the uncertainty associated with a small dataset. The results show that TelNet ranks among the most accurate and calibrated models across multiple initialization months and lead times, especially during the rainy season when the predictable signal is strongest. Moreover, the model allows instance- and lead-wise forecast interpretation through its variable selection weights.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"222"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11928313/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system. 不断上升的大气湿度加剧了未来大气河流对南极气候系统的影响。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-14 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x

Michelle L Maclennan, Andrew C Winters, Christine A Shields, Rudradutt Thaker, Léonard Barthelemy, Francis Codron, Jonathan D Wille

{"title":"Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system.","authors":"Michelle L Maclennan, Andrew C Winters, Christine A Shields, Rudradutt Thaker, Léonard Barthelemy, Francis Codron, Jonathan D Wille","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x","url":null,"abstract":"Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066-2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"369"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12078180/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144093014","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Silicon isotopic signatures of granitoids support increased weathering of subaerial land 3.7 billion years ago. 花岗岩类的硅同位素特征支持37亿年前陆地风化加剧。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-16 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02337-7

Nicolas D Greber, Madeleine E Murphy, Julian-Christopher Storck, Jesse R Reimink, Nicolas Dauphas, Paul S Savage

{"title":"Silicon isotopic signatures of granitoids support increased weathering of subaerial land 3.7 billion years ago.","authors":"Nicolas D Greber, Madeleine E Murphy, Julian-Christopher Storck, Jesse R Reimink, Nicolas Dauphas, Paul S Savage","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02337-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02337-7","url":null,"abstract":"The weathering and erosion of emerged land profoundly influences the Earth system, including the composition of the atmosphere and the type of nutrients delivered to the oceans. The emergence of land allowed for the formation of lakes and continental shelves, important habitats for the origin and evolution of life. Recent studies indicate a difference in silicon isotopes between Archean granitoids and their modern counterparts, which is explained by the incorporation of seawater-derived silica in the melting sources of the former. We show that this signature changed rapidly around 3.6 billion years ago, and that this shift is likely linked to an increase in the dissolved silicon flux from terrestrial weathering. Modeling suggests that the amount of oceanic silicon derived from terrigenous sources increased from near zero to around 32 ± 15% between 3.8 and 3.6 billion years ago. This indicates that, from this point onward, continental weathering feedbacks were established, and mass flux from land became an important source in the chemical budget of seawater, changes that likely exerted positive effects on the evolution of life.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"382"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12084155/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144093030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models. 气候模型低估了全球净初级生产的下降。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02051-4

Thomas J Ryan-Keogh, Alessandro Tagliabue, Sandy J Thomalla

引用次数: 0

Sustainable palm oil certification inadvertently affects production efficiency in Malaysia. 可持续棕榈油认证无意中影响了马来西亚的生产效率。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02150-2

Nina Zachlod, Michael Hudecheck, Charlotta Sirén, Gerard George

引用次数: 0

Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes. 滑坡、岩爆、冰川和火山的统一破坏模型。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02369-z

Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette

{"title":"Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes.","authors":"Qinghua Lei, Didier Sornette","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02369-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02369-z","url":null,"abstract":"Forecasting catastrophic failures that threaten life and property remains a formidable challenge. A major hurdle lies in the intermittent rupture dynamics of heterogeneous materials. This erratic pattern challenges conventional time-to-failure predictive models, which typically assume a smooth, monotonic power law acceleration. Here, we propose a unified failure model based on a log-periodic power law that encapsulates the intermittent acceleration-deceleration sequences within a single framework. We validate this unified model using a global dataset of 109 historical geohazard events including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, spanning a century and across seven continents. We show that our model significantly outperforms the conventional approach, offering a robust and versatile framework for describing the complex rupture behavior of diverse geomaterials such as rock, soil, and ice at the site scale. This unified perspective not only broadens the model's applicability across diverse geohazards but also highlights its potential to enhance early warning systems.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"390"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12092298/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144126719","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets. 升温1.5°C对极地冰盖来说太高了。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-05-20 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w

Chris R Stokes, Jonathan L Bamber, Andrea Dutton, Robert M DeConto

{"title":"Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.","authors":"Chris R Stokes, Jonathan L Bamber, Andrea Dutton, Robert M DeConto","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02299-w","url":null,"abstract":"Mass loss from ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica has quadrupled since the 1990s and now represents the dominant source of global mean sea-level rise from the cryosphere. This has raised concerns about their future stability and focussed attention on the global mean temperature thresholds that might trigger more rapid retreat or even collapse, with renewed calls to meet the more ambitious target of the Paris Climate Agreement and limit warming to +1.5 °C above pre-industrial. Here we synthesise multiple lines of evidence to show that +1.5 °C is too high and that even current climate forcing (+1.2 °C), if sustained, is likely to generate several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries, causing extensive loss and damage to coastal populations and challenging the implementation of adaptation measures. To avoid this requires a global mean temperature that is cooler than present and which we hypothesise to be closer to +1 °C above pre-industrial, possibly even lower, but further work is urgently required to more precisely determine a 'safe limit' for ice sheets.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"351"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12092291/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144126743","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes. 综合火灾管理作为一种适应和减轻火灾制度变化的战略。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9

I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual

{"title":"Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes.","authors":"I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","url":null,"abstract":"Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire prevention, response, and recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, and cultural factors into management strategies. However, Integrated Fire Management remains highly context-dependent, encompassing a wide array of fire management practices with varying degrees of ecological and societal integration. This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"202"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11910340/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143647580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Solid-state ³¹P NMR reveals the biological organophosphorus compounds as the dominant phosphorus species in Saharan dust aerosols. 固体31P核磁共振显示，生物有机磷化合物是撒哈拉沙尘气溶胶中主要的磷种。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-22 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w

Kalliopi Violaki, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Claudia Esther Avalos, Pierre Rossi, Ernest Abboud, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes

{"title":"Solid-state 31P NMR reveals the biological organophosphorus compounds as the dominant phosphorus species in Saharan dust aerosols.","authors":"Kalliopi Violaki, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Claudia Esther Avalos, Pierre Rossi, Ernest Abboud, Maria Kanakidou, Athanasios Nenes","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02164-w","url":null,"abstract":"Phosphorus is a critical nutrient affecting primary productivity across all ecosystems. Many regions worldwide are limited or co-limited by phosphorus availability, which can be alleviated through atmospheric deposition. Dust is known to be a key external source of phosphorus in ecosystems, assumed to be in the form of various insoluble inorganic minerals. We show that this view is largely incomplete and here we present conclusive evidence, that organic phosphorus as diesters, primarily associated with biological materials. Phosphate diesters significantly correlated with soil bacteria found in dust, implying a direct link with microbial soil communities, without excluding the eukaryotic cells. Phosphate diesters in dust, along with abundant alkaline phosphatase, may contribute 70% to daily primary productivity in the eastern Mediterranean, highlighting the potential of organic phosphorus substrates present in dust as airborne microorganisms to impact the biogeochemistry of oligotrophic environments via atmospheric deposition.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"225"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11929610/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143699869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0