Revisiting the Last Ice Area projections from a high-resolution Global Earth System Model.

IF 8.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-23 DOI:10.1038/s43247-025-02034-5
Madeleine Fol, Bruno Tremblay, Stephanie Pfirman, Robert Newton, Stephen Howell, Jean-François Lemieux
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The Last Ice Area-located to the north of Greenland and the northern Canadian Arctic Archipelago-is expected to persist as the central Arctic Ocean becomes seasonally ice-free within a few decades. Projections of the Last Ice Area, however, have come from relatively low resolution Global Climate Models that do not resolve sea ice export through the waterways of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Nares Strait. Here we revisit Last Ice Area projections using high-resolution numerical simulations from the Community Earth System Model, which resolves these narrow waterways. Under a high-end forcing scenario, the sea ice of the Last Ice Area thins and becomes more mobile, resulting in a large export southward. Under this potentially worst-case scenario, sea ice of the Last Ice Area could disappear a little more than one decade after the central Arctic Ocean has reached seasonally ice-free conditions. This loss would have profound impacts on ice-obligate species.

从高分辨率全球地球系统模型重新审视末冰区预测。
位于格陵兰岛北部和加拿大北极群岛北部的最后冰区预计将持续存在,因为北冰洋中部将在几十年内变得季节性无冰。然而,最后冰区的预估来自分辨率相对较低的全球气候模式,这些模式没有解决通过加拿大北极群岛和纳尔斯海峡航道的海冰输出问题。在这里,我们使用来自社区地球系统模型的高分辨率数值模拟来重新审视最后冰区预测,该模型解决了这些狭窄的水道。在高端强迫情景下,末冰区的海冰变薄,流动性增强,导致大量向南输出。在这种潜在的最坏情况下,在北冰洋中部达到季节性无冰状态十多年后,最后冰区的海冰可能会消失。这种损失将对冰栖物种产生深远的影响。
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来源期刊
Communications Earth & Environment
Communications Earth & Environment Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
8.60
自引率
2.50%
发文量
269
审稿时长
26 weeks
期刊介绍: Communications Earth & Environment is an open access journal from Nature Portfolio publishing high-quality research, reviews and commentary in all areas of the Earth, environmental and planetary sciences. Research papers published by the journal represent significant advances that bring new insight to a specialized area in Earth science, planetary science or environmental science. Communications Earth & Environment has a 2-year impact factor of 7.9 (2022 Journal Citation Reports®). Articles published in the journal in 2022 were downloaded 1,412,858 times. Median time from submission to the first editorial decision is 8 days.
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