Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第2页

Increasing timber and declining live plant diversity and volumes in global trade from 2000 to 2020

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2

Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards

{"title":"Increasing timber and declining live plant diversity and volumes in global trade from 2000 to 2020","authors":"Alireza Naqinezhad, Oscar Morton, David P. Edwards","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01950-2","url":null,"abstract":"Plants are a vast, lucrative portion of global wildlife trade and the most speciose clade listed under the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora-CITES. Here we used the CITES Trade Database and >420,000 records between 2000 and 2020 and assessed the diversity and volume of wild-sourced CITES-listed plants across space and time. Between 2000–2020, over 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million individual live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products were traded under CITES, comprising 53, 765, and 74 species, respectively. Most species are traded between key exporter and importer nations, especially China, USA, and Europe. Total diversity of timber species and volumes increased over time, whereas live diversity declined, and product diversity and mass fluctuated uncertainly. Most species were not evaluated by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List when first traded, with high volumes of timber and products concentrated among threatened taxa. The high prevalence of poorly understood species necessitates enhanced rigour in ensuring sustainable CITES trade. More than 8.4 million cubic metres of timber, 197 million live plants, and 4.6 million kilograms of plant products listed by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species were traded globally from 2000 to 2020, according to an analysis that uses trade data and a statistical approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-9"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01950-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4

Humphrey Adun, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Olusola Bamisile, Yihua Hu, Iain Staffell, Haris R. Gilani

{"title":"Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal","authors":"Humphrey Adun, Jeffrey Dankwa Ampah, Olusola Bamisile, Yihua Hu, Iain Staffell, Haris R. Gilani","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4","url":null,"abstract":"Deep decarbonization is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and carbon dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero targets. However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear. We quantify how different carbon removal methods and their deployment timing affect achieving net zero emissions by 2050 in the United States. Our findings show that postponing novel technologies until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy-intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions by at least 12% compared with near-term deployment of carbon dioxide removal. This delay increases transition costs, requiring carbon prices 59–79% higher than with near-term deployment. It also heightens the risk of premature fossil fuel retirement in the electricity sector, leading to 128–220 billion USD losses compared to gradual scale up starting now. A balanced, near-term co-deployment of novel removal methods mitigates risks associated with relying on a single approach  and addresses sustainability and scalability concerns. In the US, the delay in novel carbon dioxide removal until mid-century and focus on other mitigation actions reduces 2050 residual emissions to 17 percent of 2020 levels but at a high economic cost, according to an analysis that uses a market equilibrium model with a scenario approach.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01916-4.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845195","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario 碳清除情景下的强厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜降水-海洋表面温度敏感性

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8

Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Zixiang Yan, Soong-Ki Kim, Seungmok Paik

{"title":"Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario","authors":"Chao Liu, Soon-Il An, Zixiang Yan, Soong-Ki Kim, Seungmok Paik","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8","url":null,"abstract":"El Niño-Southern Oscillation-induced tropical Pacific precipitation anomalies have global impacts and will intensify under greenhouse warming, but the potential for mitigating these changes is less understood. Here, we identify distinct hysteresis features in the precipitation-sea surface temperature sensitivity between strong El Niño and La Niña phases using a large ensemble carbon removal numerical simulation. The strong El Niño precipitation sensitivity exhibits a century-scale hysteretic enhancement and eastward shift, mainly due to modulated deep convection anomalies by the Intertropical Convergence Zone via cloud-longwave feedback. Instead, the strong La Niña counterpart is concentrated toward the equator, mostly in the central-western Pacific, with a shorter hysteresis period of a few decades. This primarily involves changes in shallow convection and surface thermal structures during La Niña, shaped by global warming-induced upper-ocean circulation changes. The distinct climate change regimes of strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation sensitivity hold important implications for assessing mitigation consequences. The hysteresis in precipitation-sea surface temperature sensitivity differs between strong El Niño and La Niña phases, with El Niño intensifying and shifting eastward due to deep convection, while La Niña is more equator-centered with a shorter hysteresis period, according to a large ensemble simulation of symmetric CO2 ramp-up and ramp-down pathways.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01958-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Decarbonization pathways promote improvements in cement quality and reduce the environmental impact of China’s cement industry

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01929-z

Zhaoling Li, Lu Sun, Runsen Zhang, Tatsuya Hanaoka

{"title":"Decarbonization pathways promote improvements in cement quality and reduce the environmental impact of China’s cement industry","authors":"Zhaoling Li, Lu Sun, Runsen Zhang, Tatsuya Hanaoka","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01929-z","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01929-z","url":null,"abstract":"The cement industry plays a key role in emission reduction efforts, but cement quality is rarely considered in low-carbon development analyses. Here we design three cement quality transformation routes in response to China’s cement quality improvement program and analyse the corresponding low-carbon development pathways via a bottom-up integrated assessment model. Results show that cement quality improvements trigger a 14.6% increase in energy consumption and emissions in business-as-usual scenarios in 2060. Compared with the base year, raising the environmental taxes to 46.8 Chinese Yuan per equivalent unit saves up to 75.1% of carbon dioxide emissions and 25.0% of fuel consumption from the high-quality-cement scenario by 2060. Carbon capture and storage contributes up to 77% of the emission reduction. The reduction in cement demand conserves 17.3% more energy than the high-cement-demand scenario does in 2060. Collaborative waste treatment is expected to replace 22.4% of fuel consumption in the cement industry in 2060. In China, under the high cement quality scenario, the increase of environmental taxes is projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption in the cement industry by 2060, according to an analysis that uses an integrated assessment model with the flow of energy and materials.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01929-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845200","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1

Jordi Sardans, Albert Miralles, Akash Tariq, Fanjiang Zeng, Rong Wang, Josep Peñuelas

{"title":"Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface","authors":"Jordi Sardans, Albert Miralles, Akash Tariq, Fanjiang Zeng, Rong Wang, Josep Peñuelas","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1","url":null,"abstract":"Global warming has impacted water cycle, but not exist a global study of the changes at global scale of the impacts on water available for plants. Here, cloud-optimized monthly aggregated climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts dataset indicates that from 1960 to 2023, 27.9% of the global land surface became significantly more arid, while 20.5% became significantly less arid. This indicates a shift towards drier climates, with humid, semi-humid, and semi-arid areas decreasing by 8.51, 1.45, and 0.53 million-km², respectively, and arid and hyper-arid areas increasing by 6.34 and 4.18 million-km², respectively. This total increase of 9.99 million km² in arid areas represents 5.9% of the global land surface, excluding Greenland and Antarctica. Accelerated aridification has occurred in already dry regions, such as South-west North-America, North-Brazil, the European-Basin, North-Africa, the Middle-East, the Sahel, and central-Asia, with central-Africa as a new hotspot. The main driver is the disproportionate increase in potential evapotranspiration relative to rainfall, attributed to rising atmospheric temperatures, which also reduces the land’s carbon sink capacity, potentially exacerbating climate warming. From 1960 to 2023, 27.9% of the global land surface became more arid, while 20.5% became less arid, resulting in a 5.9% increase in arid regions, linked to reduction of land’s carbon sink capacity and climate warming, according to analysis of the ERA5-land monthly aggregated climate reanalysis dataset.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-8"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01935-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862465","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Regional cooling potential from expansion of perennial grasses in Europe

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01923-5

Xia Zhang, Bo Huang, Nariê Rinke Dias de Souza, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini

{"title":"Regional cooling potential from expansion of perennial grasses in Europe","authors":"Xia Zhang, Bo Huang, Nariê Rinke Dias de Souza, Xiangping Hu, Francesco Cherubini","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01923-5","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01923-5","url":null,"abstract":"Perennial grasses are an option to mitigate global warming, increase energy security, and alleviate environmental pressures within agricultural landscapes. Their cultivation alters near-surface temperature in ways that are still largely unclear. Here, a regional climate model with an enhanced representation of perennial grasses shows that converting today’s cropland areas in Europe induces annual mean temperature reductions in summer and autumn (up to –1 °C), which are primarily driven by a later harvest of perennial grasses relative to annual crops. Cultivation of perennial grasses where they deliver stronger biogeophysical cooling can achieve a similar annual mean temperature reduction on half of the land. This cooling can counteract up to 50% of the projected future warming and it is three times larger than what is achieved via carbon emission reductions. A sustainable deployment of perennial grasses has the potential to link global mitigation objectives with co-benefits for the local climate and environment. In Europe, converting today’s cropland areas into perennial grasses, such as switchgrass, reduces annual mean temperatures in summer and autumn, according to an analysis that uses a regional climate model and life cycle assessment.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-16"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01923-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public perceptions of mineral criticality and preferences for energy transition strategies in the United States

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01944-0

Mahelet G. Fikru, Sreeja Koppera

{"title":"Public perceptions of mineral criticality and preferences for energy transition strategies in the United States","authors":"Mahelet G. Fikru, Sreeja Koppera","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01944-0","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01944-0","url":null,"abstract":"Critical minerals are essential for advancing the energy transition. However, the public’s perception of these minerals and their application is still not well understood. Here, we investigate public awareness and perceptions of critical minerals in the United States, based on a nationally representative survey of 1200 online respondents. While only 38% of respondents stated familiarity with critical minerals, over 80% recognized the importance of minerals in the energy transition. Participants were most supportive of strategies focused on mineral research and improving the environmental impacts of mining, while domestic mining received less support. Regression analysis shows that individuals who perceive mineral criticality based on their importance to clean energy support multiple mineral policies, whereas those concerned about import dependency or shortages prefer domestic mining. Individuals who believe environmental impacts should govern criticality designation oppose domestic mining and support mineral recycling and improving mining’s environmental impacts. These findings highlight the role of differing perceptions of mineral criticality in shaping policy preferences, emphasizing the need for public awareness to foster sustainable mineral strategies for the energy transition. In the United States, the different perceptions about critical minerals influence preferences for mineral use in energy transition strategies, according to a survey-based assessment of the public awareness of critical minerals with 1,200 respondents.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-11"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01944-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845258","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Publisher Correction: A global overview of marine heatwaves in a changing climate

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01952-0

Antonietta Capotondi, Regina R. Rodrigues, Alex Sen Gupta, Jessica A. Benthuysen, Clara Deser, Thomas L. Frölicher, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Dillon J. Amaya, Natacha Le Grix, Tongtong Xu, Juliet Hermes, Neil J. Holbrook, Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, Simona Masina, Mathew Koll Roxy, Amandine Schaeffer, Robert W. Schlegel, Kathryn E. Smith, Chunzai Wang

引用次数: 0

Forest vegetation increased across China’s carbon offset projects and positively impacted neighboring areas

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01962-y

Runxin Yu, Shiping Ma, Da Zhang, Xiliang Zhang

{"title":"Forest vegetation increased across China’s carbon offset projects and positively impacted neighboring areas","authors":"Runxin Yu, Shiping Ma, Da Zhang, Xiliang Zhang","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01962-y","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01962-y","url":null,"abstract":"As forest-based carbon offset programs gain increasing attention, quantifying their impacts beyond project boundaries remains an open issue, particularly in subtropical and temperate regions. Here we focus on the local spillover effects of 36 forest offset projects in China’s voluntary carbon market. Using matching and difference-in-difference analysis, we compare the forest status of the project areas and buffer zones to their reference areas. Results show overall positive forest gains of 2.25% to 4.25% in project sites, with neighboring areas seeing spillover gains of 0.91% to 1.60%, exhibiting heterogeneity in individual projects. Further analysis finds limited evidence of leakage, possibly due to China’s land policies and project features; instead, positive spillovers are facilitated by knowledge diffusion and information flow, supported by reduced wildfire activities and project application patterns. This study demonstrates that well-designed forest offset programs can yield benefits beyond their boundaries, providing insights for offset policy design and project implementation. Across 36 forest offset projects in China, the vegetation increased from 2000 to 2022, and the forest gain is also evident in buffer zones, according to an analysis that uses biophysical and land-use variables and a difference-in-difference model.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01962-y.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142845224","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global upper ocean dissolved oxygen budget for constraining the biological carbon pump

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2024-12-16 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01886-7

Ryohei Yamaguchi, Shinya Kouketsu, Naohiro Kosugi, Masao Ishii

{"title":"Global upper ocean dissolved oxygen budget for constraining the biological carbon pump","authors":"Ryohei Yamaguchi, Shinya Kouketsu, Naohiro Kosugi, Masao Ishii","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01886-7","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01886-7","url":null,"abstract":"One mechanism by which the ocean uptakes carbon dioxide is through the biological carbon fixation and its subsequent transport to the deep ocean, a process known as the biological carbon pump. Although the importance of the biological pump in the global carbon cycle has long been recognized, its actual contribution remains uncertain. Here, we quantify the carbon export from the upper ocean via the biological carbon pump by revealing the upper ocean dissolved oxygen balance. Calculations of dissolved oxygen budget quantified net oxygen removals from the upper ocean by physical processes (air–sea exchange, advection, and diffusion) and indicated net biological oxygen production that compensated for those removals. The derived oxygen production is converted to carbon units using the photosynthetic ratio, and inferred an estimated global annual carbon export through the biological pump of 7.36 ± 2.12 Pg C year−1 with providing insights into the overall ocean carbon cycle. The biological carbon pump exports about 7.36 Pg of carbon globally per year from the upper ocean, according to an estimation of the dissolved oxygen budget that accounts for air–sea exchange, advection, and diffusion.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":" ","pages":"1-12"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01886-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142826484","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0