Communications Earth & Environment最新文献_第2页

A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw. 一项跨学科的比较分析揭示了北极永久冻土融化的主要风险。

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-16 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w

Susanna Gartler, Johanna Scheer, Alexandra Meyer, Khaled Abass, Annett Bartsch, Natalia Doloisio, Jade Falardeau, Gustaf Hugelius, Anna Irrgang, Jón Haukur Ingimundarson, Leneisja Jungsberg, Hugues Lantuit, Joan Nymand Larsen, Rachele Lodi, Victoria Sophie Martin, Louise Mercer, David Nielsen, Paul Overduin, Olga Povoroznyuk, Arja Rautio, Peter Schweitzer, Niek Jesse Speetjens, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Ulla Timlin, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Jorien Vonk, Levi Westerveld, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen

{"title":"A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw.","authors":"Susanna Gartler, Johanna Scheer, Alexandra Meyer, Khaled Abass, Annett Bartsch, Natalia Doloisio, Jade Falardeau, Gustaf Hugelius, Anna Irrgang, Jón Haukur Ingimundarson, Leneisja Jungsberg, Hugues Lantuit, Joan Nymand Larsen, Rachele Lodi, Victoria Sophie Martin, Louise Mercer, David Nielsen, Paul Overduin, Olga Povoroznyuk, Arja Rautio, Peter Schweitzer, Niek Jesse Speetjens, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Ulla Timlin, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Jorien Vonk, Levi Westerveld, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w","url":null,"abstract":"Permafrost thaw poses diverse risks to Arctic environments and livelihoods. Understanding the effects of permafrost thaw is vital for informed policymaking and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the consolidated findings of a risk analysis spanning four study regions: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the Avannaata municipality (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region and the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada) and the Bulunskiy District of the Sakha Republic (Russia). Local stakeholders' and scientists' perceptions shaped our understanding of the risks as dynamic, socionatural phenomena involving physical processes, key hazards, and societal consequences. Through an inter- and transdisciplinary risk analysis based on multidirectional knowledge exchanges and thematic network analysis, we identified five key hazards of permafrost thaw. These include infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. The study's novelty resides in the comparative approach spanning different disciplines, environmental and societal contexts, and the transdisciplinary synthesis considering various risk perceptions.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"21"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11738985/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143001476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Seasonal regimes of warm Circumpolar Deep Water intrusion toward Antarctic ice shelves.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-01 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02091-w

Joshua Lanham, Matthew Mazloff, Alberto C Naveira Garabato, Martin Siegert, Ali Mashayek

引用次数: 0

Poor air quality raises mortality in honey bees, a concern for all pollinators.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02082-x

Nico Coallier, Liliana Perez, Maxime Fraser Franco, Yenny Cuellar, Julien Vadnais

{"title":"Poor air quality raises mortality in honey bees, a concern for all pollinators.","authors":"Nico Coallier, Liliana Perez, Maxime Fraser Franco, Yenny Cuellar, Julien Vadnais","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02082-x","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02082-x","url":null,"abstract":"Human well-being relies on the presence and role of pollinators, as they contribute to the vitality of ecosystems, support the reproduction of wild plants, increase crop yields, and strengthen overall food security. While wild bee populations are dwindling due to climate and environmental change, there has been a notable 45% rise globally in the number of managed honey bee (Apis mellifera) colonies over the past five decades. Given their economic significance and their relative ease of tracking, honey bees have the potential to serve as bioindicators of global pollinator health. Consequently, honey bees have emerged as a keystone species requiring protection and conservation efforts. Here, we investigate the intricate relationship between air quality, environmental factors, and honey bee mortality across Canada and the United States. Using statistical and machine learning modeling, our findings underscore the honey bee's role as a bioindicator. We found that air quality is an important predictor of honey bee mortality. The risk of honey bee mortality increased with poor air quality (ozone and Air Quality Health Index) but was substantially reduced in regions with greater vegetation availability (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index). Therefore, our study offers a beacon of hope: improving management practices by increasing greenery can significantly mitigate the impact of deteriorating air quality on honey bees, providing a vital solution to safeguard our essential pollinators.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"126"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11845317/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143482411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An interpretable machine learning model for seasonal precipitation forecasting.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-21 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2

Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B M J Ouarda

{"title":"An interpretable machine learning model for seasonal precipitation forecasting.","authors":"Enzo Pinheiro, Taha B M J Ouarda","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02207-2","url":null,"abstract":"Seasonal climate forecasting is important for societal welfare, as it supports decision-makers in taking proactive steps to mitigate risks from adverse climate conditions or to take advantage of favorable ones. Here, we introduce TelNet, a sequence-to-sequence machine learning model for short-to-medium lead seasonal precipitation forecasting. The model takes past seasonal precipitation values and climate indices to predict an empirical precipitation distribution for every grid point of the target region for the next six overlapping seasons. TelNet has a simple encoder-decoder-head architecture, allowing the model to be trained with a limited amount of data, as is often the case in climate forecasting. Its deterministic and probabilistic performance is thoroughly evaluated and compared with state-of-the-art dynamical and deep learning models in a prominent region for seasonal forecasting studies due to its high climate predictability. The training, validation, and test sets are resampled multiple times to estimate the uncertainty associated with a small dataset. The results show that TelNet ranks among the most accurate and calibrated models across multiple initialization months and lead times, especially during the rainy season when the predictable signal is strongest. Moreover, the model allows instance- and lead-wise forecast interpretation through its variable selection weights.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"222"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11928313/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691156","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO₂ uptake in Earth system models.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1

Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K Arora, Chris D Jones, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Spencer K Liddicoat, Alexander J Winkler, Sönke Zaehle

{"title":"Rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake in Earth system models.","authors":"Sian Kou-Giesbrecht, Vivek K Arora, Chris D Jones, Victor Brovkin, Tomohiro Hajima, Michio Kawamiya, Spencer K Liddicoat, Alexander J Winkler, Sönke Zaehle","doi":"10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-024-01943-1","url":null,"abstract":"Current frameworks for evaluating biogeochemical climate change feedbacks in Earth System Models lack an explicit consideration of nitrogen cycling in the land and ocean spheres despite its vital role in limiting primary productivity. As coupled carbon-nitrogen cycling becomes the norm, a better understanding of the role of nitrogen cycling is needed. Here we develop a new framework for quantifying carbon-nitrogen feedbacks in Earth System Models and show that rising nitrogen deposition acts as a negative feedback over both land and ocean, enhancing carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilisation in a model ensemble. However, increased CO2 uptake due to rising nitrogen deposition is small relative to the large reduction in CO2 uptake when coupled carbon-nitrogen cycling is implemented in Earth System Models. Altogether, rising nitrogen deposition leads to only a minor increase in CO2 uptake but also enhances nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions over land and ocean, contributing only marginally to mitigating climate change.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"216"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11922751/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143691176","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Strong polar vortex favoured intense Northern European storminess in February 2022.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02175-7

Ryan S Williams, Amanda C Maycock, Vincent Charnay, Jeff Knight, Inna Polichtchouk

{"title":"Strong polar vortex favoured intense Northern European storminess in February 2022.","authors":"Ryan S Williams, Amanda C Maycock, Vincent Charnay, Jeff Knight, Inna Polichtchouk","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02175-7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02175-7","url":null,"abstract":"February 2022 was an unusually stormy month over Northern Europe, including three extratropical cyclones impacting the United Kingdom and Ireland within a single week. The month also experienced an exceptionally strong stratospheric polar vortex; however, the role of this in preconditioning the risk of extratropical cyclone hazards has not been explored. Here we use constrained subseasonal forecasts to isolate the effect of the strong stratospheric polar vortex on the North Atlantic storm track in February 2022. We estimate the strong polar vortex led to a 1.5-3-fold increase in the likelihood of a cyclone with comparable intensity to the most intense storm that impacted the United Kingdom. We also show an increased likelihood of 3 or more storms reaching the United Kingdom in a single week by ~80% compared to if the polar vortex had been of average intensity. Using a storm severity index, we estimate a 3-4-fold increase in wind gust hazards over Scandinavia and Scotland and increases in monthly precipitation over Scotland, northern England and Ireland, and Scandinavia. The results show that the strengthened stratospheric polar vortex enhanced the risk of extreme North Atlantic extratropical cyclones, serial cyclone clustering, and their associated impacts over northern Europe in February 2022.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"226"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11949832/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143751285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Global decline in net primary production underestimated by climate models.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02051-4

Thomas J Ryan-Keogh, Alessandro Tagliabue, Sandy J Thomalla

引用次数: 0

Sustainable palm oil certification inadvertently affects production efficiency in Malaysia.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02150-2

Nina Zachlod, Michael Hudecheck, Charlotta Sirén, Gerard George

引用次数: 0

Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-15 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9

I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual

{"title":"Integrated fire management as an adaptation and mitigation strategy to altered fire regimes.","authors":"I Oliveras Menor, N Prat-Guitart, G L Spadoni, A Hsu, P M Fernandes, R Puig-Gironès, D Ascoli, B A Bilbao, V Bacciu, L Brotons, R Carmenta, S de-Miguel, L G Gonçalves, G Humphrey, V Ibarnegaray, M W Jones, M S Machado, A Millán, R de Morais Falleiro, F Mouillot, C Pinto, P Pons, A Regos, M Senra de Oliveira, S P Harrison, D Armenteras Pascual","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02165-9","url":null,"abstract":"Altered fire regimes are a global challenge, increasingly exacerbated by climate change, which modifies fire weather and prolongs fire seasons. These changing conditions heighten the vulnerability of ecosystems and human populations to the impacts of wildfires on the environment, society, and the economy. The rapid pace of these changes exposes significant gaps in knowledge, tools, technology, and governance structures needed to adopt informed, holistic approaches to fire management that address both current and future challenges. Integrated Fire Management is an approach that combines fire prevention, response, and recovery while integrating ecological, socio-economic, and cultural factors into management strategies. However, Integrated Fire Management remains highly context-dependent, encompassing a wide array of fire management practices with varying degrees of ecological and societal integration. This review explores Integrated Fire Management as both an adaptation and mitigation strategy for altered fire regimes. It provides an overview of the progress and challenges associated with implementing Integrated Fire Management across different regions worldwide. The review also proposes five core objectives and outlines a roadmap of incremental steps for advancing Integrated Fire Management as a strategy to adapt to ongoing and future changes in fire regimes, thereby maximizing its potential to benefit both people and nature.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"202"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11910340/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143647580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The active layer soils of Greenlandic permafrost areas can function as important sinks for volatile organic compounds.

IF 8.1 1区地球科学

Communications Earth & Environment Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2025-01-17 DOI: 10.1038/s43247-025-02007-8

Yi Jiao, Magnus Kramshøj, Cleo L Davie-Martin, Bo Elberling, Riikka Rinnan

{"title":"The active layer soils of Greenlandic permafrost areas can function as important sinks for volatile organic compounds.","authors":"Yi Jiao, Magnus Kramshøj, Cleo L Davie-Martin, Bo Elberling, Riikka Rinnan","doi":"10.1038/s43247-025-02007-8","DOIUrl":"10.1038/s43247-025-02007-8","url":null,"abstract":"Permafrost is a considerable carbon reservoir harboring up to 1700 petagrams of carbon accumulated over millennia, which can be mobilized as permafrost thaws under global warming. Recent studies have highlighted that a fraction of this carbon can be transformed to atmospheric volatile organic compounds, which can affect the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. In this study, active layer soils from the seasonally unfrozen layer above the permafrost were collected from two distinct locations of the Greenlandic permafrost and incubated to explore their roles in the soil-atmosphere exchange of volatile organic compounds. Results show that these soils can actively function as sinks of these compounds, despite their different physiochemical properties. Upper active layer possessed relatively higher uptake capacities; factors including soil moisture, organic matter, and microbial biomass carbon were identified as the main factors correlating with the uptake rates. Additionally, uptake coefficients for several compounds were calculated for their potential use in future model development. Correlation analysis and the varying coefficients indicate that the sink was likely biotic. The development of a deeper active layer under climate change may enhance the sink capacity and reduce the net emissions of volatile organic compounds from permafrost thaw.","PeriodicalId":10530,"journal":{"name":"Communications Earth & Environment","volume":"6 1","pages":"32"},"PeriodicalIF":8.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11748482/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143022521","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0