{"title":"Macroeconomic Determinants of Private Sector Credit in Tanzania: 1991–2018","authors":"A. Kilindo","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i2.66","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i2.66","url":null,"abstract":"Tanzania has undertaken significant changes that have altered the role of macroeconomic variables in the financial sector during the past three decades. These include deregulation of interest rates, combating inflation and improving macroeconomic performance, and increasing access to credit by the private sector. In this context, our study aims to analyse the impact of macroeconomic variables on bank credit to the private sector using annual data spanning from 1991 to 2018; the period after financial sector reforms. After performing unit root test and co-integration tests, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied to establish the dynamic long– run relationship between macroeconomic variables, namely, GDP, the lending rate, inflation and private sector credit. From the results, it can be seen that all these three macroeconomic variables have contributed positively towards bank credit growth in the Tanzanian economy. The co-integration and the error correction model estimation results also suggest that the macroeconomic variables had a long-run relationship with bank credit. The study findings call for policy makers to observe the behaviour of lending rates, inflation and economic growth to enhance credit demand and stimulate investment and growth.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"21 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87697319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of the Adequacy of the Pension System in Mainland Tanzania","authors":"Irene C. Isaka, M. Ndanshau","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i2.63","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i2.63","url":null,"abstract":"This study assesses the adequacy of the pension system in Tanzania by using membership data of pension schemes. The analysis, which is based on the life cycle hypothesis, includes an assessment of pension system adequacy by using replacement rate, coverage rate, catchment rate, and demographic rates. The results of the study reveal several things. First, replacement rate is 29 percent, far below the international minimum standards of 40 percent due to generous commutation factors, and commutation being inversely related to monthly pension. Second, the lack of indexation diminishes adequacy of benefits. Third, actual contribution rate is 15 percent, lower than the statutory contribution rate of 20 percent of salary, which could lead to low density of contribution and cause depletion of assets by 2022 if no action is taken. Fourth, inadequacy of benefits was found to be caused by low catchment rate, which was found to be positively correlated with benefits payment. Fifth, the analysis establishes that the demographic structure would support increase in coverage of membership should the government institute appropriate policies.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84968597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Determinants of Demand for Health Insurance in Uganda: An Analysis of Utilisation and Willingness to Pay","authors":"Dablin Mpuuga, Bruno L. Yawe, J. Muwanga","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.53","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.53","url":null,"abstract":"Health insurance is increasingly being recognized in Uganda as an effective way of protecting people against catastrophic health expenditures. However, only 5 percent of Ugandans hold health insurance, and only 42 percent would consider joining any healthinsurance scheme. It is in this regard that this study sought to examine the determinants of demand for health insurance in Uganda. After applying a logistic model on Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) data of 2016/17, the results reveal that awareness is a very crucial factor in determining demand for health insurance, and that most Ugandans are not aware of health insurance as a mode of paying for medical care. The results further reveal that although most of the people suffering from non-communicable diseases are willing to pay for health insurance, very few have health insurance in this regard. Generally, willingness to pay does not translate into actual utilisation of health insurance. Thus, the study recommends the promotion of awareness about health insurance, increasing the literacy levels of Ugandans through education, promoting poverty reduction and income enhancing programs, as well as urgently implementing a National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS). \u0000JEL Codes: A10, I11, I19","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90993980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in East Africa: A Comparative Study of Tanzania, Kenya And Uganda","authors":"Hamza A. Mkai, Jehovaness Aikaeli","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.54","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.54","url":null,"abstract":"This study makes a comparative analysis of the channels and effectiveness of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in three East African countries. The study applies time series data that is analysed using a Recursive Vector Autoregressive technique. The results suggest that exchange rate is the dominant monetary policy transmission channel in Tanzania and Uganda; and the bank credit channel is found to be the most dominant mechanism in Kenya. Further, the results suggest the existence of good potential for targeting inflation or interest rate rather than monetary aggregates, especially for Tanzania and Kenya, since Uganda has already embarked on inflation targeting lite, and is currently faring well. \u0000JEL Classification: E31, E37","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"38 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80694225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Environmental Implication of Sesame Production in Tanzania: A Case Study of Kilwa District, Lindi Region","authors":"R. Lokina, J. Tibanywana, M. Ndanshau","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.56","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.56","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses the possibilities for sustainable land use management at farm level to preserve the tropical rainforest in the Lindi region, Tanzania. It investigates the implication of agricultural production, in particular a high valued sesame production on household deforestation in Kilwa district, in Lindi region. The choice of the study area is because Lindi region is one of the leading sesame producers in the country. The analysis is based on data collected in Kilwa district, from a sample of 310 households in six village. The key question in the questionnaire administered to heads of households was, among others, factors that influenced their decision to clear new land for sesame farming in the previous crop season. Thus, the study set out to understand drivers of deforestation in Lindi region at the household level. Using bivariate Probit model it investigated whether sesame production influenced clearance of new area. The main findings of this study indicate that even though sesame production influence household welfare positively, it is also likely to affect the environment negatively. It recommends the need to put in place appropriate policies and infrastructure such that farmers can increase productivity without the need to expand farm land. \u0000JEL Classification: Q1, Q17","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"3 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72603715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Promotion Strategies and Performance of Commercial Banks: Evidence from CRDB Bank Plc in Tanzania","authors":"O. K. Mbura, M. Sekela","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.61","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.61","url":null,"abstract":"This article is informed by the planned behaviour and hierarchy of effect theories to examine the influence of five traditional promotion strategies on the performance of commercial banks in Tanzania, taking evidence from one of the leading commercial banks in the country - CRDB Plc. This quantitative based study used a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from randomly selected 208 sampled employees. With the support of the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software, a hypothesised model that included promotion strategies as predictors of commercial banks’ performance was evaluated using a multiple linear regression model. The results supported the hypothesised model, indicating that all the promotion strategies had positive; and only four (excluding publicity) had important influence on the performance of commercial banks. From the findings, the study recommends that commercial banks need to innovatively prioritise adoption of the complementary use of the four significant promotion strategies of sales promotion, advertising, personal selling, and direct marketing to manage the performance of commercial banks. Nevertheless, publicity should not be entirely ignored as it also has some positive effect. ","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88917753","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Pragmatic History of Economic Thought: Explaining Trade Practices and Policies in Kenya","authors":"Majune Kraido Socrates, Mwania Davis Kimuli","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.59","url":null,"abstract":"This study explains trade regimes and practices in Kenya from a history of economic thought (HET) perspective using secondary materials. We find that the trade landscape in Kenya is divided into three periods: pre-colonial (before 1895), colonial (1895-1962), and post-colonial (1963 to date). The first two eras did not have a clear trade policy. The pre-colonial era had a mixture of classical doctrines and mercantilism whereby long-distance and barter trade between communities were practiced. Nonetheless, certain communities restricted trade. Classical economic thought was practiced in the colonial period (1895-1962), whereby agricultural produce was exported and less expensive consumables were imported. The postcolonial period started with a mercantilism approach (import-substitution) but successive regimes have promoted classical doctrines of trade by reducing import and export barriers, and creating trade-promotion institutions. Trade in services, which is topical in international trade, has also been promoted in this regime. \u0000JEL Codes: B10, B17, B20, B27","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87930406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Integrating Informal Economy into Official Economy in Southern Africa: Identifying Barriers and Possible Solutions","authors":"Upenyu Sakarombe","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.58","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.58","url":null,"abstract":"In the Lewisian model, the informal sector was thought to automatically formalise with time. This was known as the Lewis Turning Point. However, with time as industrialisation increased, the so-called informal sector was not diminishing, rather at times it was increasing. This tends to suggest the existence of structural barriers to formalisation, which the authorities should address. This study sought to identify these barriers basing on theoretical arguments by empirically testing the significance of the causes of the informal sector as they become barriers to formalisation. The structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used in a multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) framework. This study presents the findings that barriers to formality are high tax burden, poor institutional quality (poor control of corruption), high government consumption, unemployment rate, and low trade openness. This argument has been built theoretically and has been suggested empirically by the results. This paper suggests the creation of Quasi-Lewis conditions through adopting the following possible solutions: reduce tax burden and resort to sovereign wealth fund (SWF) as a source of income, reduce government size, create more jobs, and provide credit and business development services to informal operators, introduce simplified bureaucratic procedures, and liberalise trade.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76224281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Interrelationship Between Fiscal Deficit, Aggregate Savings and Investment: A Test of Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis in Nigeria","authors":"Ogbuagu Matthew Ikechukwu, Joseph A. Omojolaibi","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.55","url":null,"abstract":"Conflicting results on the relationship between government fiscal deficit, savings and investment behaviour of households remains unresolved. Some authors have argued that households might unconsciously play out adherence to the dictates of the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis (REH) because they practice an infinite consumption horizon. Relying on the vector autoregression (VAR) technique and the impulse response function (IRF), this study examines the validity of the REH and the interactions between fiscal deficit, aggregate savings, and private investment in Nigeria within a 48-year period. The results reveal that government fiscal deficit exerts negative effects on gross domestic savings and investment, which is further affirmed by the impulse response function (IRF). These findings rather uphold the neoclassical literary arguments that economic growth is retarded due to crowding out effects resulting from fiscal deficits; hence opposing the REH. Thus, policy-makers should adhere to the fiscal deficits benchmark of less than 40 percent of GDP as proposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to maintain stable macroeconomic conditions. \u0000JEL Classification: E62, E21-E22, E23","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"2 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91184818","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of Livelihood Strategies and Food Insecurity in Turkana County, Kenya","authors":"John Kamau Gathiaka, Moses Kinyanjui Muriithi","doi":"10.56279/ter.v10i1.60","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.56279/ter.v10i1.60","url":null,"abstract":"The pastoral communities of Turkana in northern Kenya have for ages satisfied their economic, social, and cultural needs through nomadic pastoralism. But due to increasing frequency of drought and market shocks, the ability of age-old strategies to shield these pastoralists from poverty and food insecurity has declined. With only livestock and social capital as the main assets in a communal property regime, it is not clear which of the various livelihood strategies that these pastoralists pursue can shield households from drought and market shocks. This study investigates livelihood strategies as pursued by pastoralists in Turkana County with a view to identify strategies that can effectively shield households from shocks. Data for the study is sourced from the Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) 2005/06. Available literature is used to identify livelihood strategies in Turkana, while the KIHBS data is used to establish the population of people pursuing each strategy. Anova and Bonferroni tests give evidence of the existence of four livelihood strategies using food expenditure ratio as the categorizing variable. Multinomial logit regression is used to analyse the determinants of livelihood strategies. Findings, though not conclusive, suggest correlation between food insecurity and livelihood strategy. Policies that target to influence livelihood strategies may have implications on food security in Turkana, even though further analysis is required to confirm the association.","PeriodicalId":91807,"journal":{"name":"Tanzanian economic review","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91250842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}