Solar Physics最新文献

{"title":"The Sunrise Chromospheric Infrared Spectro-Polarimeter SCIP: An Instrument for SUNRISE III","authors":"Y. Katsukawa,&nbsp;J. C. del Toro Iniesta,&nbsp;S. K. Solanki,&nbsp;M. Kubo,&nbsp;H. Hara,&nbsp;T. Shimizu,&nbsp;T. Oba,&nbsp;Y. Kawabata,&nbsp;T. Tsuzuki,&nbsp;F. Uraguchi,&nbsp;K. Shinoda,&nbsp;T. Tamura,&nbsp;Y. Suematsu,&nbsp;T. Matsumoto,&nbsp;R. T. Ishikawa,&nbsp;Y. Naito,&nbsp;K. Ichimoto,&nbsp;S. Nagata,&nbsp;T. Anan,&nbsp;D. Orozco Suárez,&nbsp;E. Sanchis Kilders,&nbsp;M. Balaguer Jiménez,&nbsp;A. C. López Jiménez,&nbsp;C. Quintero Noda,&nbsp;D. Álvarez García,&nbsp;J. L. Ramos Más,&nbsp;J. P. Cobos Carrascosa,&nbsp;P. Labrousse,&nbsp;B. Aparicio del Moral,&nbsp;A. Sánchez Gómez,&nbsp;D. Hernández Expósito,&nbsp;E. Bailón Martínez,&nbsp;J. M. Morales Fernández,&nbsp;A. Moreno Mantas,&nbsp;A. Tobaruela,&nbsp;I. Bustamante,&nbsp;F. J. Bailén,&nbsp;J. Blanco Rodríguez,&nbsp;J. L. Gasent Blesa,&nbsp;P. Rodríguez Martínez,&nbsp;A. Ferreres,&nbsp;D. Gilabert Palmer,&nbsp;J. Piqueras Carreño,&nbsp;I. Pérez Grande,&nbsp;I. Torralbo,&nbsp;A. Álvarez-Herrero,&nbsp;A. Korpi-Lagg,&nbsp;A. Gandorfer,&nbsp;T. Berkefeld,&nbsp;P. Bernasconi,&nbsp;A. Feller,&nbsp;T. L. Riethmüller,&nbsp;H. N. Smitha,&nbsp;V. Martínez Pillet,&nbsp;B. Grauf,&nbsp;A. Bell,&nbsp;M. Carpenter","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02696-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02696-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The <span>Sunrise</span> balloon-borne solar observatory is equipped with a one-meter aperture optical telescope, offering a unique platform for uninterrupted seeing-free observations across ultraviolet, visible, and infrared wavelengths from altitudes higher than 33 km. For the third flight of the upgraded <span>Sunrise</span> observatory conducted in 2024, now called <span>Sunrise iii</span>, a new spectro-polarimeter called the Sunrise Chromospheric Infrared spectroPolarimeter (SCIP) was developed for observing near-infrared wavelength ranges around 770 nm and 850 nm. These wavelength ranges contain many spectral lines, including two of the Ca <span>ii</span> infrared triplet, K <span>i</span> D1 and D2 lines, and multiple Fe <span>i</span> lines, that are sensitive to solar magnetic fields and velocities in the photosphere and chromosphere. SCIP consists of a grating spectrograph in which polarimetric measurements are conducted using a rotating waveplate as a modulator and polarizing beam splitters placed in front of the cameras. The spatial and spectral resolutions are <span>(0.21'')</span> and <span>(1times10^{5})</span>, respectively, and a polarimetric sensitivity of 0.03% (1<span>(sigma)</span>) of the continuum intensity is achieved with a 10 s integration time per a resolution element. To achieve high-precision detection of small polarization signals, we carefully designed the optical and mechanical systems, polarization components, control electronics, and onboard data processing. Together with the other post-focus instrumentation developed for <span>Sunrise iii</span>, the <span>Sunrise</span> Ultraviolet Spectropolarimeter and Imager (SUSI) and the Tunable Magnetograph (TuMag) visible imaging spectro-polarimeter, SCIP provides novel observations that help elucidate energy transfer and time-dependent phenomena across the solar photosphere and chromosphere.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-026-02696-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148366061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Polarity Reversal of the Polar Magnetic Fields in Solar Cycle 25","authors":"Yin Li,&nbsp;Shuhong Yang,&nbsp;Yuzong Zhang,&nbsp;Qiao Song,&nbsp;Guiping Zhou,&nbsp;Yuanyong Deng,&nbsp;Jingxiu Wang","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02699-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02699-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The polar magnetic field polarity reversal is a key signature of solar cycle evolution, and precise determination of its timing is crucial for dynamo theory validation and solar cycle prediction. We investigate the polar polarity reversal of solar cycle 25 using the vector magnetic field data from the spectropolarimeter on board the Hinode satellite. We constructed polar top-down composite maps from Hinode-view magnetograms. These maps show the year-to-year polar polarity variations, with the northern polar region gradually changing from positive to negative and the southern polar region exhibiting the reverse behavior. The polarity reversals of the northern and southern polar caps (above <span>(70^{circ })</span> latitude) likely occurred in November 2024 and October 2024, respectively. The northern polarity reversal lagged the northern hemispheric sunspot number maximum by approximately 19 months, while the southern reversal possibly coincided with the southern maximum. Moreover, polarity reversal times calculated at <span>(5^{circ })</span> latitude intervals above <span>(70^{circ })</span> reveal a trend of earlier reversal in lower latitudes consistent with that of solar cycle 24. These results offer observational references for modeling polar polarity reversal in solar cycles.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Observation and Modeling of the 2011 May 28 Geo-Effective Event","authors":"Nishu Karna,&nbsp;Tatiana Niembro","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02680-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02680-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a combined observational and modeling study of a geo-effective event on 2011 May 28, which produced a symmetric horizontal component index (SYM-H) index of −80 nT. The event occurred when active regions were bordered by a large coronal hole, potentially influencing the behavior of eruptive structures. We analyze magnetogram and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) images and find that this event involved two filament eruptions 8 hours apart from two different active regions closed to each other. Then, we track their coronal mass ejection (CME) counterparts using coronagraph images. We analyze plasma, magnetic field, particle energies and the SYM-H to find their relationship to the CMEs and the high-speed streams (HSS). The HSS interval is marked by enhanced particle energies and thermal speeds, with reduced ionic charge states and elemental abundance ratios, whereas the CME intervals exhibit the opposite behavior, emphasizing their distinct plasma characteristics. We reconstruct 3D magnetic field configurations for the active regions and assessed flux rope stability. We find that the presence of a nearby coronal hole makes flux ropes unstable at lower axial flux values, approximately three times smaller than in comparable cases without a coronal hole. Using a hydrodynamic (HD) model, constrained by remote sensing, and in situ data, we track the CME/ICME propagation up to 1 au. The model reproduces the overall timing and structure of the transients. Our results suggest that the coronal hole likely influenced CME propagation and may have reduced interactions between the CMEs, with the transients subsequently propagating along the solar wind streams emerging from the coronal hole. This study demonstrates how nearby magnetic structures can affect CME dynamics, which is critical for forecasting Earth-directed solar transients.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-026-02680-8.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Iron Fluorescence in X-Class Solar Flares: Aditya-L1/SoLEXS Observations","authors":"Abhilash R. Sarwade,&nbsp;K. Sankarasubramanian,&nbsp;Monoj Bug,&nbsp;Vaishali Sharan,&nbsp;Kiran Lakshmipathaiah,&nbsp;Ankur Kushwaha,&nbsp;M. C. Ramadevi,&nbsp;Smrati Verma","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02685-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02685-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Iron fluorescence is produced by the irradiation of the solar photosphere by coronal X-rays during flares. This study presents the first comprehensive analysis of iron K<span>(alpha )</span> fluorescence characteristics in 47 X-class flares observed during the inaugural year of the Solar Low Energy X-ray Spectrometer (SoLEXS) on board India’s Aditya-L1 mission. Leveraging the capability of modern silicon drift detectors (SDDs) for simultaneous broadband continuum and line measurements, the Fe K<span>(alpha )</span> flux and the exciting flux (<span>(F_{&gt;7.11 text{ keV}})</span>) are quantified for each event, establishing a well-determined relationship between them across the sample. The derived fluorescence efficiencies exhibit a center-to-limb dependence consistent with theoretical models, offering a potential diagnostic to probe coronal source heights and viewing geometries. While statistical uncertainties currently limit the ability to track rapid height variations on short timescales, the mean fluorescence efficiency during the flare peak provides a potential constraint on the effective coronal source height. However, this derivation remains subject to a fundamental degeneracy, as the estimated source height cannot be uniquely determined without assuming a specific value for the photospheric iron abundance. These findings demonstrate that SDDs, despite having lower spectral resolution than traditional crystal spectrometers, provide a new diagnostic for the solar iron fluorescence observations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323927","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Sharper than Ever: Do Modern Observations Pin down the Solar Radius to Converge on New Standards?","authors":"Jean-Pierre Rozelot,&nbsp;Alexander Kosovichev","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02678-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02678-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Solar radius measurements and their variations – if any – are a difficult problem that has vexed researchers for decades. In this paper, we have attempted to clarify the various ways of expressing the definition “solar diameter”, from a physical point of view. The concept of diameter is taken here in its broadest sense, leaving aside the issue concerning the oblateness caused by surface and internal angular velocity variations, as deviations from sphericity are negligible in our context. Astrometric time-series observations are still needed, and we advocate strengthening long-term metrological measures to achieve greater consensus on the subject. To date, modern observations of the solar diameter provide a frame of reference, and we give a new glossary. By comparing the best values obtained to date, it is shown that the “seismic radius” obtained from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provides the best determination, a finding supported by observations made at the Calern (F) and Pic du Midi (F) observatories. The latest results on the leptocline show that it is more important than ever to consider at which layers of the Sun radius measurements are carried out. On this basis, we hope to converge on new standards.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global Distribution of Solar-Wind Density Fluctuations Derived from Interplanetary Scintillation Observations During 2008 – 2022","authors":"Munetoshi Tokumaru","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02695-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02695-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The turnover phenomenon observed for the radial variation of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) represents transition between weak and strong scattering of radio waves, and its location from the Sun (the turnover distance) serves as a reliable measure of solar-wind density fluctuations. In this study, we determined the turnover distances for 36 sources from IPS observations during 2008 – 2022 (Cycle 23/24 minimum through Cycle 25 rising phase) using the 327 MHz radio telescope at Toyokawa Observatory of the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University. Such turnover-distance measurements over a long period using multiple sources provide unique information on the global distribution of solar-wind density fluctuations evolving with time, leading to improved understanding of the heliospheric response to the solar cycle. At Cycle 24 maximum, large values of the turnover distance were observed for all latitudes, whereas smaller values were observed at Cycle 23/24 and 24/25 minima particularly over the poles. These results suggest that the solar-wind density fluctuations at around 0.2 AU from the Sun increase (decrease) at solar maximum (minimum), and that their distribution in latitude were nearly uniform at solar maximum and non-uniform at minimum. The decrease in the turnover distance over the poles at solar minimum is ascribed to the effect of the polar coronal hole. Although the results obtained here were generally consistent with IPS observations made in Cycles 21 and 22, the turnover distances of the equator observed at Cycles 23/24 and 24/25 minima were smaller than those at the Cycle 20/21 and 21/22 minima, suggesting a marked reduction in density fluctuations of the equator at Cycles 23/24 and 24/25 minima, which is regarded as a manifestation of the weak solar cycle. A significant negative correlation was found between the turnover distance and the sharpness of the turnover. This means that the density gradient becomes flat (steep) when the solar-wind density fluctuations decrease (increase), providing with important implications on formation of large-scale density structure in the heliopshere.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-026-02695-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148323001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The Behaviour of the EUV Corona Before Flares in Regions with High Free Magnetic Energy","authors":"Louise Harra,&nbsp;Kanya Kusano,&nbsp;Yingjie Zhu,&nbsp;Krzysztof Barczynski,&nbsp;Adriana De-Sassi,&nbsp;Muriel Z. Stiefel,&nbsp;Ioannis Kontogiannis,&nbsp;Matthew J. West,&nbsp;David H. Brooks","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02691-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02691-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding and predicting the trigger of solar flares has been an area of focus for many years. In this work, we analyze EUV coronal data from SDO/AIA and Solar Orbiter EUI EUV High Resolution Imager (HRI_EUV) to determine whether regions with high free magnetic energy in the photosphere show related dynamics in the corona. We studied two large solar flares from the same active region on 19 and 20 March 2024. We found that the two identified magnetic regions with high free energy also had frequent small spatial scale EUV intensity changes as highlighted through the standard deviation of the imaging data. The standard deviation enhancement in these regions peaked at least two minutes before the GOES X-ray emission and was close in time to the peak of the non-thermal emission, providing an additional method to identify the early flare trigger location and start.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-026-02691-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148281401","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"A Consistency Check for the Calibration of 5303Å Solar Coronal Emission Line Observations with Aditya-L1/VELC","authors":"V. Muthu Priyal,&nbsp;R. Ramesh,&nbsp;Jagdev Singh,&nbsp;K. Sasikumar Raja,&nbsp;P. Savarimuthu","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02693-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02693-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We carried out radiometric calibration of the Visible Emission Line Coronagraph (VELC) onboard Aditya-L1 at 5303Å using observations of the Sun itself, a novel approach compared to the calibration using bright stars in the other currently operational space solar coronagraphs. The measured VELC detector count corresponding to the center of Sun’s disk is <span>(approx (1.70pm 0.12)times 10^{8}, mathrm{sec}^{-1}{text{AA} }^{-1})</span>, which relates to Sun’s flux at 1 AU in 5303Å, <span>(approx 3.0456times 10^{6}, mathrm{erg,sec^{-1} cm^{-2}} {text{AA} }^{-1})</span>. We verified the above calibration using observations of the bright star Sirius-A whose estimated flux at 1 AU in 5303Å is <span>(approx 1.44times 10^{-8}, mathrm{erg,sec^{-1} cm^{-2} text{AA} ^{-1}})</span>. The expected detector count with VELC in this case is <span>(approx 19pm 1.4, mathrm{sec^{-1}text{{AA }}^{-1}})</span>, and the measured count is <span>(approx 23pm 0.4, mathrm{sec^{-1}text{{AA }}^{-1}})</span>. The reasonable agreement between the expected and observed values for Sirius-A in this initial consistency check after two years of observations with VELC, indicates that measurements of coronal brightness at 5303Å with the VELC and its conversion into absolute physical units using observations of the Sun disk light are in order. Using the Sirius-A observations we measured the point spread function (PSF) of the VELC in its 5303Å channel also. Its full width at half maximum (FWHM) is <span>(approx 3.8^{prime prime })</span>.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148281440","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"SSTrack: An Automatic Sunspot Identification and Tracking Algorithm to Support the Measurement of Sunspot Rotation","authors":"Charlotte Proverbs,&nbsp;Daniel Brown","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02689-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02689-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Motions of sunspots cause the coronal magnetic field to become deformed with the effect that energy can be stored in the coronal magnetic field. This energy can be released through events such as solar flares. Sunspots are known to rotate about their umbral centres, and this rotation contributes to the build-up of energy within an active region that can be released during an eruptive solar event. To understand the relationship between rotational forms of sunspot dynamics and solar activity, a large, unbiased statistical survey of sunspots is desirable.</p><p>To generate such a statistical sample, a fully automatic sunspot identification and tracking method, SSTrack, is developed. This method is tested on a previously analysed four-month sample of active regions generated using a semi-automatic sunspot rotation tool. The new method is designed to be applied to long periods of observations so that large samples can be efficiently obtained, while working at a high-cadence to effectively capture fine-scale-behaviour, such as sunspot splitting and mergers. SSTrack is able to identify fifty-four of the fifty-six sunspots in the four-month sample as well as an additional forty-three sunspots not found by the semi-automatic method. It is able to identify many of the fifty-four commonly found sunspots earlier and track them for longer than the semi-automatic method. The rotation about umbral centres is calculated for each sunspot using the tracking data from both methods, and when considering only overlapping observations per sunspot the methods show good agreement. The semi-automatic method is found to detect greater rotation when a sunspot undergoes fragmentation due to the changing structure overly influencing the determination of the centre of the sunspot.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-026-02689-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148237080","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Deep Learning with Magnetic Parameter Constraints for Short-Term Prediction of Solar Active Region Vector Magnetic Fields","authors":"Yuqing Zhou,&nbsp;Hui Liu,&nbsp;Zhenyu Jin,&nbsp;Yuyang Li,&nbsp;Sizhong Zou,&nbsp;Jiaben Lin,&nbsp;Mingfu Shao,&nbsp;Zhuoheng Huang","doi":"10.1007/s11207-026-02687-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-026-02687-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Forecasting the dynamic evolution of solar magnetic fields is a critical technique for enabling space-weather warnings. Addressing the limitations of existing methods in predicting all vector magnetic field components and in maintaining consistency with solar surface magnetic-field-related quantities, this study proposes a deep learning prediction method that integrates dynamic masks of active regions with multiple magnetic parameter constraints. By constructing a three-channel representation of vector magnetic fields, applying dynamic masks to enhance attention to strong-field regions, and incorporating multi-parameter magnetic parameter constraints, we developed an end-to-end short-term (12-hour) predictive model of solar vector magnetic field evolution. Using SDO/SHARP vector magnetogram data, the model predicts and analyses field evolution across all components. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that our approach achieves horizon-averaged structural similarity index measure (SSIM) of 0.912 (per-hour range: 0.909 – 0.916) and correlation coefficient (CC) of 0.998 for the radial component <span>(B_{r})</span> (root-mean-square error (RMSE) 13.0 – 21.0 G); the horizontal components achieve <span>(B_{phi })</span> SSIM 0.760 – 0.800 (CC 0.910 – 0.945, RMSE 38.5 – 50.0 G) and <span>(B_{theta })</span> SSIM 0.728 – 0.750 (CC 0.895 – 0.920, RMSE 38.5 – 49.0 G). The model maintains unsigned magnetic-flux prediction errors at 7.82% (95% confidence interval (CI): ±0.11%). These results demonstrate strong image-domain performance together with consistency under the magnetic-parameter diagnostics used here, suggesting initial potential for supporting future space weather forecasting efforts.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"301 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2026-06-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"148236891","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}