Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-09-20DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02350-7
A. Posner, I. G. Richardson, R. D.-T. Strauss
{"title":"The “SEP Clock”: A Discussion of First Proton Arrival Times in Wide-Spread Solar Energetic Particle Events","authors":"A. Posner, I. G. Richardson, R. D.-T. Strauss","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02350-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02350-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This work analyzes the appearance of wide-spread deka-MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events, in particular the arrival of the first protons within ≈ 4.5 – 45 MeV measured at Earth–Sun L1, and their relationship with their relative solar source longitude. The definition of “wide-spread SEP event” for this study refers to events that are observed as a 25 MeV proton intensity increase at near 1 AU locations that are separated by at least 130<sup>∘</sup> in solar longitude. Many of these events are seen at all three of the spacecraft, STEREO (Solar-Terrestrial Relations Observatory) A, STEREO B, and SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory), and may therefore extend far beyond 130<sup>∘</sup> in longitude around the Sun. A large subset of these events have already been part of a study by Richardson et al. (<i>Solar Phys</i>., <b>289</b>, 3059, 2014). The event source region identifications draw from this study; more recent events have also been added. Our focus is on answering two specific questions: (1) What is the maximum longitude over which SEP protons show energy dispersion, i.e., a clear sign of arrival of higher-energy protons before those of lower energy? (2) What implications can be drawn from the ensemble of events observed regarding either direct magnetic connectivity to shocks and/or cross-field transport from the site of the eruption in the onset phase of the event?</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02350-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142412773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-09-19DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02351-6
Tsvetan Tsvetkov, Yoana Nakeva, Nikola Petrov
{"title":"Online Catalog of Activity Events of Solar Cycle 24 Related to Active Regions","authors":"Tsvetan Tsvetkov, Yoana Nakeva, Nikola Petrov","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02351-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02351-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We present a statistical study on the relationship of solar dynamic events (solar flares and coronal mass ejections) with active regions during Solar Cycle 24 (December 2008–December 2019). Combining data from NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and observations of Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) spacecraft, we found that more than a half of the coronal mass ejections were generated inside active regions. Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare listing data completed our study showing that almost 83% of Solar Cycle 24 flares are connected with active regions. Finally, we summarize the details for the related phenomena into an online catalog based on a list of all 1533 active regions that produced at least one flare and/or coronal mass ejection during Solar Cycle 24 and explore their properties like flare class, coronal mass ejection speed, and angular width paying special attention to the most powerful and threatful to Earth solar events.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142412601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-09-09DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02365-0
V. N. Obridko, M. M. Katsova, D. D. Sokoloff, N. V. Emelianov
{"title":"Is There a Synchronizing Influence of Planets on Solar and Stellar Cyclic Activity?","authors":"V. N. Obridko, M. M. Katsova, D. D. Sokoloff, N. V. Emelianov","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02365-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02365-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This work continues our research of the connection between the long-term activity of stars and their planets. We analyze new data on the previously considered two dozen solar-type stars with identified cycles, adding the results of studying the long-term variability of two more solar-type G stars and 15 cooler M dwarfs with planets. If the cyclic activity is determined by a strong tidal influence of the planet, then the cycle duration of the star should be synchronized with the period of orbital revolution of the planet. We calculate the gravitational effect of planets on their parent stars. The results obtained confirm the earlier conclusion that exoplanets do not influence the formation of the stellar cycle. We examine the change in the position of the barycenter of the solar system relative to the center of the Sun over 420 years. A comparison of these data with the most reliable 120-year SSN (sunspot number) series as the index of solar activity has shown that they are not synchronized.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219147","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-09-05DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02358-z
Ekaterina Dineva, Carsten Denker, Meetu Verma, Klaus Strassmeier, Ilya Ilyin, Ivan Milic
{"title":"High-Resolution Sun-as-a-Star Spectroscopy of the Partial Solar Eclipse of 2017 August 21","authors":"Ekaterina Dineva, Carsten Denker, Meetu Verma, Klaus Strassmeier, Ilya Ilyin, Ivan Milic","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02358-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02358-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The solar eclipse of 2017 August 21 was observed with the Potsdam Echelle Polarimetric and Spectroscopic Instrument (PEPSI) on the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT), which is located at Mt. Graham International Observatory (MGIO), Arizona, USA. At this location, a partial eclipse was observed with maximum obscuration of about 61.6%. The 11-millimeter-aperture, binocular Solar Disk-Integrated (SDI) telescope, located on the kitchen balcony of the LBT building, feeds sunlight to PEPSI, which has recorded a total of 116 Sun-as-a-star spectra in the wavelength range of 5300 – 6300 Å, with a spectral resolution <span>({mathcal{R}} approx 250{,}000)</span> and signal-to-noise ratio of about 733:1. The temporal evolution of the Fraunhofer Na <span>i</span> D doublet at <span>(lambda )</span>5890/5896 Å is analyzed using contrast profiles that illustrate subtle changes in the spectral line, not obvious in the intensity profiles. Line bisectors are used to study the height-dependent signature of convective motions. Sun-as-a-star spectra illustrate the radial atmospheric stratification and are affected by limb darkening, solar differential rotation, convective motions, and magnetic activity. During a partial solar eclipse, the contribution of these features is modified by the passage of the Moon, resulting in a transit spectral signature. These observations are compared with synthetic Na <span>i</span> D spectra generated by the Spectropolarimetic NLTE Analytically Powered Inversion (SNAPI) code, based on state-of-the-art Bifrost atmospheric parameters, applied to a geometrically accurate model of the solar eclipse. The model is in qualitative agreement with the observations. However, the discrepancies indicate that models need to be improved, where high-resolution eclipse spectroscopy can serve as a benchmark.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-09-02DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02366-z
Jirui Yu, Yinghong He, Jinyou Tao, Yang Su, Zhe Zhang, Jianfeng Yang, Nange Wang, Song Guo, Baogang Lv, Xiaobo Chen, Bin Xue, Yiming Hu, Dengyi Chen, Fu Yu, Mingde Ding, Ping Ruan
{"title":"The Solar Aspect System of the Hard X-ray Imager Onboard ASO-S","authors":"Jirui Yu, Yinghong He, Jinyou Tao, Yang Su, Zhe Zhang, Jianfeng Yang, Nange Wang, Song Guo, Baogang Lv, Xiaobo Chen, Bin Xue, Yiming Hu, Dengyi Chen, Fu Yu, Mingde Ding, Ping Ruan","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02366-z","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02366-z","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The ASO-S/HXI is a bi-grids modulating instrument for solar hard X-ray imaging, whose collimator contains 91 pairs of tungsten grids. Since the solar disk is invisible in hard X-rays, a Solar Aspect System (SAS) is required to provide the pointing of hard X-ray imager (HXI) for locating X-ray sources on the solar disk. In addition, the knowledge of the alignment and relative twist of the corresponding front–rear grid pairs is important for image reconstruction as well as locating flares. Therefore, the SAS system was designed to monitor the alignment status of HXI grids and to provide the pointing direction of the HXI collimator with two subsystems DM and SA during the whole life cycle of HXI. DM measures the centroids of the front frosted glasses and the solar disk. SA images the Sun and provides precise relative locations of the solar disk center. Both work in the visible light of 565–585 nm. With all the data together, we can solve with an inversion algorithm the alignment status of the front and rear grids, the relative twist, and the pointing direction. We tested and validated the SAS design with both the simulation model and ground coordinate measuring machine. Here we present the detailed system design, the testing results, the inversion algorithm, and the in-orbit status of the SAS. Currently, the SAS has realized the rotational measurement accuracy of about 4 arcsec, and a translational measurement accuracy of about 15 μm, and the SAS pointing data has been used in both imaging calibration for flare locations and imaging corrections for the platform drifting effect. The high-cadence precise measurement (better than 0.3 arcsec) of the pointing will allow the study of source locations at different energies and therefore help us to understand electron acceleration and transportation in flares.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02366-z.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02362-3
Long Gong, Yunfei Yang, Song Feng, Wei Dai, Bo Liang, Jianping Xiong
{"title":"Solar Active Regions Detection and Tracking Based on Deep Learning","authors":"Long Gong, Yunfei Yang, Song Feng, Wei Dai, Bo Liang, Jianping Xiong","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02362-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02362-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Solar active regions serve as the primary energy sources of various solar activities, directly impacting the terrestrial environment. Therefore precise detection and tracking of active regions are crucial for space weather monitoring and forecasting. In this study, a total of 4577 HMI and MDI longitudinal magnetograms are selected for building the dataset, including the training set, validating set, and ten testing sets. They represent different observation instruments, different numbers of activity regions, and different time intervals. A new deep learning method, ReDetGraphTracker, is proposed for detecting and tracking the active regions in full-disk magnetograms. The cooperative modules, especially the redetection module, NSA Kalman filter, and the splitter module, better solve the problems of missing detection, discontinuous trajectory, drifting tracking bounding box, and ID change. The evaluation metrics <i>IDF1</i>, <i>MOTA</i>, <i>MOTP</i>, <i>IDs,</i> and <i>FPS</i> for the testing sets with 24-h interval on average are 74.0%, 74.7%, 0.130, 13.6, and 13.6, respectively. With the decreasing intervals, the metrics become better and better. The experimental results show that ReDetGraphTracker has a good performance in detecting and tracking active regions, especially capturing an active region as early as possible and terminating tracking in near-real time. It can well deal with the active regions whatever evolve drastically or with weak magnetic field strengths, in a near-real-time mode.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-08-30DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02367-y
Vicki L. Herde, Phillip C. Chamberlin, Don Schmit, Adrian Daw, Ryan O. Milligan, Vanessa Polito, Souvik Bose, Spencer Boyajian, Paris Buedel, Will Edgar, Alex Gebben, Qian Gong, Ross Jacobsen, Nicholas Nell, Bennet Schwab, Alan Sims, David Summers, Zachary Turner, Trace Valade, Joseph Wallace
{"title":"The Solar EruptioN Integral Field Spectrograph","authors":"Vicki L. Herde, Phillip C. Chamberlin, Don Schmit, Adrian Daw, Ryan O. Milligan, Vanessa Polito, Souvik Bose, Spencer Boyajian, Paris Buedel, Will Edgar, Alex Gebben, Qian Gong, Ross Jacobsen, Nicholas Nell, Bennet Schwab, Alan Sims, David Summers, Zachary Turner, Trace Valade, Joseph Wallace","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02367-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02367-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Solar eruptioN Integral Field Spectrograph (SNIFS) is a solar-gazing spectrograph scheduled to fly in the summer of 2025 on a NASA sounding rocket. Its goal is to view the solar chromosphere and transition region at a high cadence (1 s) both spatially (<span>(0.5'')</span>) and spectrally (33 mÅ) viewing wavelengths around Lyman alpha (1216 Å), Si <span>iii</span> (1206 Å), and O <span>v</span> (1218 Å) to observe spicules, nanoflares, and possibly a solar flare. This time cadence will provide yet-unobserved detail about fast-changing features of the Sun. The instrument is comprised of a Gregorian-style reflecting telescope combined with a spectrograph via a specialized mirrorlet array that focuses the light from each spatial location in the image so that it may be spectrally dispersed without overlap from neighboring locations. This paper discusses the driving science, detailed instrument and subsystem design, and preintegration testing of the SNIFS instrument.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11364598/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142103269","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-08-29DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02354-3
Bo Chen, Li Feng, Guang Zhang, Hui Li, Lingping He, Kefei Song, Quanfeng Guo, Ying Li, Yu Huang, Jingwei Li, Jie Zhao, Jianchao Xue, Gen Li, Guanglu Shi, Dechao Song, Lei Lu, Beili Ying, Haifeng Wang, Shuang Dai, Xiaodong Wang, Shilei Mao, Peng Wang, Kun Wu, Shuai Ren, Liang Sun, Xianwei Yang, Mingyi Xia, Xiaoxue Zhang, Peng Zhou, Chen Tao, Yang Liu, Sibo Yu, Xinkai Li, Shuting Li, Ping Zhang, Qiao Li, Zhengyuan Tian, Yue Zhou, Jun Tian, Jiahui Shan, Xiaofeng Liu, Zhichen Jing, Weiqun Gan
{"title":"Inflight Performance and Calibrations of the Lyman-Alpha Solar Telescope on Board the Advanced Space-Based Solar Observatory","authors":"Bo Chen, Li Feng, Guang Zhang, Hui Li, Lingping He, Kefei Song, Quanfeng Guo, Ying Li, Yu Huang, Jingwei Li, Jie Zhao, Jianchao Xue, Gen Li, Guanglu Shi, Dechao Song, Lei Lu, Beili Ying, Haifeng Wang, Shuang Dai, Xiaodong Wang, Shilei Mao, Peng Wang, Kun Wu, Shuai Ren, Liang Sun, Xianwei Yang, Mingyi Xia, Xiaoxue Zhang, Peng Zhou, Chen Tao, Yang Liu, Sibo Yu, Xinkai Li, Shuting Li, Ping Zhang, Qiao Li, Zhengyuan Tian, Yue Zhou, Jun Tian, Jiahui Shan, Xiaofeng Liu, Zhichen Jing, Weiqun Gan","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02354-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02354-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The Ly<span>(alpha )</span> Solar Telescope (LST) is the first instrument to achieve imaging of the full solar disk and the coronal region in both white light (WL) and ultraviolet (UV) H <span>i</span> Ly<span>(alpha )</span>, extending up to 2.5 solar radii (Rs), contributing to solar physics research and space weather forecasting. Since its launch on 9 October 2022, LST has captured various significant solar activity phenomena, including flares, filaments, prominences, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). On-orbit observation and test results show that LST covers a continuous spatial range and the wavelengths of 121.6, 360, and 700 nm. The Ly<span>(alpha )</span> Solar Disk Imager (SDI) has a field of view (FOV) of 38.4′ and a spatial resolution of around 9.5″, while the White-Light Solar Telescope (WST) has an FOV of 38.43′ and a spatial resolution of around 3.0″. The FOV of the Ly<span>(alpha )</span> Solar Corona Imager (SCI) reaches 81.1′ and its spatial resolution is 4.3″. The stray-light level in the 700 nm waveband is about 7.8 × 10<sup>−6</sup> MSB at 1.1 Rs and 7.6 × 10<sup>−7</sup> MSB at 2.5 Rs, and in Ly<span>(alpha )</span> waveband it is around 4.3 × 10<sup>−3</sup> MSB at 1.1 Rs and 4.1 × 10<sup>−4</sup> MSB at 2.5 Rs (MSB: mean solar brightness). This article will detail the results from on-orbit tests and calibrations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-08-29DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02364-1
Marek Vandas, Evgeny Romashets
{"title":"Flux Calibration of Coronal Magnetic Field","authors":"Marek Vandas, Evgeny Romashets","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02364-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02364-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Romashets and Vandas (2024) derived a method for the determination of Euler potentials at a spherical surface and applied it to the geomagnetic field. Here, we apply it to find Euler potentials at the source surface. A regular mesh defined by Euler potentials divides the source surface to surface elements with the same magnetic flux. By tracing magnetic-field lines away from the source surface, Euler potentials can be extended into the heliosphere.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02364-1.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219049","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-08-28DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02363-2
José-Víctor Rodríguez, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, Ignacio Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, José Manuel Vaquero
{"title":"Hemispheric Sunspot Number Prediction for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 Using Spectral Analysis and Machine Learning Techniques","authors":"José-Víctor Rodríguez, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, Ignacio Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, José Manuel Vaquero","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02363-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02363-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study uses machine learning and time series spectral analysis to develop a novel technique to forecast the sunspot number (S<sub>N</sub>) in both hemispheres for the remainder of Solar Cycle 25 and Solar Cycle 26. This enables us to offer predictions for hemispheric S<sub>N</sub> until January 2038 (using the 13-month running average). For the Northern hemisphere, we find maximum peak values for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 of 58.5 in April 2023 and 51.5 in November 2033, respectively (root mean square error of 6.1). For the Southern hemisphere, the predicted maximum peak values for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 are 77.0 in September 2024 and 70.1 in November 2034, respectively (root mean square error of 6.8). In this sense, the results presented here predict a Southern hemisphere prevalence over the Northern hemisphere, in terms of S<sub>N</sub>, for Solar Cycles 25 and 26, thus continuing a trend that began around 1980, after the last period of Northern hemisphere prevalence (which, in turn, started around 1900). On the other hand, for both hemispheres, our findings predict lower maxima for Solar Cycles 25 and 26 than the preceding cycles. This fact implies that, when predicting the total S<sub>N</sub> as the sum of the two hemispheric forecasts, Solar Cycles 24 – 26 may be part of a centennial Gleissberg cycle’s minimum, as was the case in the final years of the 19th century and the start of the 20th century (Solar Cycles 12, 13, and 14).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 8","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02363-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142219150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}