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Do Flares Impact Neighboring Quiescent Coronal Rain? 耀斑会影响邻近的静止日冕雨吗?
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02565-2
Seray Şahin, Patrick Antolin
{"title":"Do Flares Impact Neighboring Quiescent Coronal Rain?","authors":"Seray Şahin,&nbsp;Patrick Antolin","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02565-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02565-2","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Solar flares are energetic phenomena that influence coronal plasma dynamics through the magnetic reconnection-driven large-scale reconfiguration, heating and particle acceleration. Even though the energy release is usually strongly localised, it is well known that the flaring can impact a large part of the solar atmosphere through e.g. fast MHD shocks and particle acceleration. Coronal rain is a well known product of strongly stratified heating, seen in quiescent (non-flaring) and flaring conditions. This study investigates quiescent rain showers neighboring a flare site, focusing on their temporal evolution across the pre-flare, impulsive, and gradual phases. Using high-resolution imaging from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) and the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), we perform a quantitative comparison of rain quantity, intensity, and velocity before and after a C7.5 flare. Our results reveal an increase of approximately 27% in the average number of rain events from pre-flare to impulsive phases, suggesting a possible causal link with the flare perturbations. Besides, a significant increase in both average intensity and downflow velocity by 17% and 18%, respectively, from pre-flare to the gradual phases, suggesting a possible flare-induced density enhancement in the neighbouring coronal rain. These findings highlight the potential of using rain as a sensitive indicator of magnetic or thermodynamic changes, primarily governed by internal loop dynamics, but potentially influenced by external, flare-related perturbations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-025-02565-2.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145510512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Modelling the Solar Cycle Nonlinearities into the Algebraic Approach 用代数方法模拟太阳周期非线性
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02574-1
Mohammed H. Talafha
{"title":"Modelling the Solar Cycle Nonlinearities into the Algebraic Approach","authors":"Mohammed H. Talafha","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02574-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02574-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding and predicting solar-cycle variability requires accounting for nonlinear feedbacks that regulate the buildup of the Sun’s polar magnetic field. We present a simplified but physically grounded algebraic approach that models the dipole contribution of active regions (ARs) while incorporating two key nonlinearities: tilt quenching (TQ) and latitude quenching (LQ). Using ensembles of synthetic cycles across the dynamo effectivity range <span>(lambda _{R})</span>, we quantify how these mechanisms suppress the axial dipole and impose self-limiting feedback.</p><p>Our results show that (i) both TQ and LQ reduce the polar field, and together they generate a clear saturation (“ceiling”) of dipole growth with increasing cycle amplitude; (ii) the balance between LQ and TQ, expressed as <span>(R(lambda _{R}) = mathrm{dev(LQ)}/mathrm{dev(TQ)})</span>, transitions near <span>(lambda _{R} approx 12^{circ })</span>, with LQ dominating at low <span>(lambda _{R})</span> and TQ at high <span>(lambda _{R})</span>; (iii) over <span>(8^{circ }leq lambda _{R} leq 20^{circ })</span>, the ratio follows a shallow offset power law with exponent <span>(n approx 0.36 pm 0.04)</span>, significantly flatter than the <span>(n=2)</span> scaling assumed in many surface flux–transport (SFT) models; and (iv) symmetric, tilt-asymmetric, and morphology-asymmetric AR prescriptions yield nearly identical <span>(R(lambda _{R}))</span> curves, indicating weak sensitivity to AR geometry for fixed transport.</p><p>These findings demonstrate that nonlinear saturation of the solar cycle can be captured efficiently with algebraic formulations, providing a transparent complement to full SFT simulations. The method highlights that the LQ–TQ balance is primarily controlled by transport (<span>(lambda _{R})</span>), not by active-region configuration, and statistically disfavors the SFT-based <span>(1/lambda _{R}^{2})</span> dependence.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145510305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Alfvén Waves in Partially Ionised Solar Steady-State Plasmas 部分电离太阳稳态等离子体中的alfvsamn波
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02567-0
Nada F. Alshehri, Istvan Ballai, Gary Verth, Viktor Fedun
{"title":"Alfvén Waves in Partially Ionised Solar Steady-State Plasmas","authors":"Nada F. Alshehri,&nbsp;Istvan Ballai,&nbsp;Gary Verth,&nbsp;Viktor Fedun","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02567-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02567-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Our study investigates the properties of Alfvén waves in partially ionised solar plasmas in the presence of steady, field-aligned, flows of charged and neutral particles. Our work aims to understand how such flows modify wave propagation and damping in environments where ion-neutral collisions are significant. We employ a two-fluid model that treats ions and neutrals as separate colliding fluids and incorporates background steady flows for both species. Using a combination of analytical dispersion analysis and numerical solutions, we examine the impact of these flows on the behaviour of Alfvén waves. Our results show that steady flows lead to substantial modifications of wave properties, including Doppler shifts, propagation direction reversal, flow-dependent changes in damping rates, and the appearance of a new mode associated with neutral flow and collisional coupling. We also identify conditions under which flow-driven mode conversion can arise. Our results offer new insights into the interplay between plasma flows and particle collisions in the regions of the solar atmosphere where partial ionisation is relevant.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-025-02567-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145510304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023 爆炸波模型预测2013年1月至2023年7月行星际冲击到达时间的性能
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02564-3
Xinhua Zhao, Jiaqi Chai, Shiwei Feng, Nanbin Xiang, Linhua Deng, Yidan Liang, Xueshang Feng, Tingting Xu, Miao Wan
{"title":"The Performance of a Blast Wave Model in Predicting Arrival Times of the Interplanetary Shocks from January 2013 to July 2023","authors":"Xinhua Zhao,&nbsp;Jiaqi Chai,&nbsp;Shiwei Feng,&nbsp;Nanbin Xiang,&nbsp;Linhua Deng,&nbsp;Yidan Liang,&nbsp;Xueshang Feng,&nbsp;Tingting Xu,&nbsp;Miao Wan","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02564-3","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02564-3","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recently, a novel blast wave solution based on shock dynamics had been proposed. This study adopts a series of improvements and optimization strategies to develop this solution for the purpose of real forecasting capabilities, which leads to a Blast Wave Model (BWM). Firstly, an empirical formula was used to derive the initial shock velocity from the linear speed of the associated coronal mass ejections (CME) observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). Secondly, a correction relation was introduced to account for the effect of the shock’s main propagation direction on its arrival time. Finally, an appropriate judgment index was established to allow the BWM model to determine whether a shock would reach the Earth. The BWM model was used to predict the arrival times of 337 shock events associated with CMEs from January 2013 to July 2023, and the prediction results demonstrated that the success rate for the shock’s arrival and non-arrival is as high as 64%. For those Earth-reaching events, the model had an averaged absolute forecast error of 9.1 hours for the arrival time, and a relative error of less than 15% for 61% cases. Compared with other models of the same kind (three versions of the Shock Propagation Model, the Shock Time of Arrival model), the BWM model shows a higher level of forecast accuracy and smaller prediction errors of the shock arrival time.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145510306","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Aditya-L1: A Space Based Observatory to Study the Solar Atmosphere, Solar Wind, Heliosphere, and Space Weather Aditya-L1:研究太阳大气、太阳风、日球层和空间天气的天基天文台
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02573-2
K. Sankarasubramanian, Dibyendu Chakrabarty, Cristina H. Mandrini
{"title":"Aditya-L1: A Space Based Observatory to Study the Solar Atmosphere, Solar Wind, Heliosphere, and Space Weather","authors":"K. Sankarasubramanian,&nbsp;Dibyendu Chakrabarty,&nbsp;Cristina H. Mandrini","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02573-2","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02573-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145510303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Evaluating Solar Wind Forecast Using Magnetic Maps That Include Helioseismic Far-Side Information 利用包含日震远侧信息的磁图评估太阳风预报。
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02563-4
Stephan G. Heinemann, Dan Yang, Shaela I. Jones, Jens Pomoell, Eleanna Asvestari, Carl J. Henney, Charles N. Arge, Laurent Gizon
{"title":"Evaluating Solar Wind Forecast Using Magnetic Maps That Include Helioseismic Far-Side Information","authors":"Stephan G. Heinemann,&nbsp;Dan Yang,&nbsp;Shaela I. Jones,&nbsp;Jens Pomoell,&nbsp;Eleanna Asvestari,&nbsp;Carl J. Henney,&nbsp;Charles N. Arge,&nbsp;Laurent Gizon","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02563-4","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02563-4","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To model the structure and dynamics of the heliosphere well enough for high-quality forecasting, it is essential to accurately estimate the global solar magnetic field used as inner boundary condition in solar wind models. However, our understanding of the photospheric magnetic field topology is inherently constrained by the limitation of systematically observing the Sun from only one vantage point, Earth. To address this challenge, we introduce global magnetic field maps that assimilate far-side active regions derived from helioseismology into solar wind modeling. Through a comparative analysis between the combined surface flux transport and helioseismic Far-side Active Region Model (FARM) and the base Surface Flux Transport Model without far-side active regions (SFTM), we assess the feasibility and efficacy of incorporating helioseismic far-side information in space weather forecasting. We are employing the Wang-Sheeley-Arge solar wind (WSA) model for statistical evaluation and leveraging the EUropean Heliospheric FOrecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA), a three-dimensional heliospheric MHD model, to analyze a case study. Using the WSA model, we show that including far-side magnetic data improves solar wind forecasts for 2013 – 2014 by up to <span>(50%)</span> in correlation and <span>(3%)</span> in root mean square error and mean absolute error, especially near the Earth and Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory – Ahead (STEREO-A). Additionally, our 3D modeling shows significant localized differences in heliospheric structure that can be attributed to the presence or absence of active regions in the magnetic maps used as input boundaries. This highlights the importance of including far-side information to more accurately model and predict space weather effects caused by solar wind, solar transients, and geomagnetic disturbances.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12602654/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145501416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Statistical Study of (delta )-Sunspots from Solar Cycle 23 to 25 第23 ~ 25太阳周期(delta ) -黑子的统计研究
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02560-7
Rohan Eugene Louis
{"title":"A Statistical Study of (delta )-Sunspots from Solar Cycle 23 to 25","authors":"Rohan Eugene Louis","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02560-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02560-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Sunspots or active regions with a <span>(delta )</span>-magnetic configuration are known to be associated with strong eruptions such as flares and mass ejections. This article, investigates the relationship between <span>(delta )</span> active regions (ARs) and flares over the course of three solar cycles, from 1996 to 2024, with respect to the <span>(delta )</span> AR areas, lifetimes, latitudinal distributions, and the phase of their magnetic complexity. Solar Cycle 25, while still in progress, has produced the least number of <span>(delta )</span>-active regions in comparison to the previous two solar cycles, yet the number of M- and X-class flares exceed that of Cycle 24 by 25%. Flare occurrence is higher in C-, M-, and X-class events during the presence of the <span>(delta )</span> configuration in an active region, which is seen in all three solar cycles. The total number of flares produced by <span>(delta )</span> and non-<span>(delta )</span> active regions were 15,875 and 17,033, respectively, along all three solar cycles. The latter are dominated by B- and C-class flares, while the number of M- and X-class flares along all three solar cycles was significantly less than compared to <span>(delta )</span> ARs. The median lifetime of an active region in the <span>(delta )</span> phase is about five days while it is about eight days in the non-<span>(delta )</span> phase. The typical number of flares produced by a <span>(delta )</span> active region is 20, with maximum values ranging from 80 – 156 for lifetimes between 6 – 13 days. However, about 30% of <span>(delta )</span> active regions do not produce flares when their lifetimes are between 6 – 12 days. The latitudinal distribution of <span>(delta )</span> active regions across the northern and southern hemispheres is nearly symmetric on either side of the equator for Solar Cycles 23 and 24, peaking around <span>({pm},10^{circ })</span> – <span>(20^{circ })</span>. For Solar Cycles 23 and 24, about 30% of the host <span>(delta )</span> active regions have an area exceeding the mean value over the above latitudinal belt while for Solar Cycle 25, there is a large scatter possibly due to the cycle still being in progress. It remains to be seen if the latter phase of Solar Cycle 25 will be as active as its earlier phase and whether the number of <span>(delta )</span> active regions emerging during that period scale with the total sunspot number.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145456284","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Solar Orbiter’s 2024 Major Flare Campaigns: An Overview 太阳轨道器2024年的主要耀斑活动:概述
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02561-6
Daniel F. Ryan, Laura A. Hayes, Hannah Collier, Graham S. Kerr, Andrew R. Inglis, David Williams, Andrew P. Walsh, Miho Janvier, Daniel Müller, David Berghmans, Cis Verbeeck, Emil Kraaikamp, Peter R. Young, Therese A. Kucera, Säm Krucker, Muriel Z. Stiefel, Daniele Calchetti, Katharine K. Reeves, Sabrina Savage, Vanessa Polito
{"title":"Solar Orbiter’s 2024 Major Flare Campaigns: An Overview","authors":"Daniel F. Ryan,&nbsp;Laura A. Hayes,&nbsp;Hannah Collier,&nbsp;Graham S. Kerr,&nbsp;Andrew R. Inglis,&nbsp;David Williams,&nbsp;Andrew P. Walsh,&nbsp;Miho Janvier,&nbsp;Daniel Müller,&nbsp;David Berghmans,&nbsp;Cis Verbeeck,&nbsp;Emil Kraaikamp,&nbsp;Peter R. Young,&nbsp;Therese A. Kucera,&nbsp;Säm Krucker,&nbsp;Muriel Z. Stiefel,&nbsp;Daniele Calchetti,&nbsp;Katharine K. Reeves,&nbsp;Sabrina Savage,&nbsp;Vanessa Polito","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02561-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02561-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Solar Orbiter conducted a series of flare-optimised observing campaigns in 2024 using the Major Flare Solar Orbiter Observing Plan (SOOP). Dedicated observations were performed during two distinct perihelia intervals in March/April and October, during which over 22 flares were observed, ranging from B- to M-class. These campaigns leveraged high-resolution and high-cadence observations from the mission’s remote-sensing suite, including the High-Resolution EUV Imager (EUI/HRI<sub>EUV</sub>), the Spectrometer/Telescope for Imaging X-rays (STIX), the Spectral Imaging of the Coronal Environment (SPICE) spectrometer, and the High Resolution Telescope of the Polarimetric and Helioseismic Imager (PHI/HRT), as well as coordinated ground-based and Earth-orbiting observations. EUI/HRI<sub>EUV</sub>, operating in short-exposure modes, provided two-second-cadence, non-saturated EUV images, revealing structures and dynamics on scales not previously observed. Simultaneously, STIX captured hard X-ray imaging and spectroscopy of accelerated electrons, while SPICE acquired EUV slit spectroscopy to probe chromospheric and coronal responses. Together, these observations offer an unprecedented view of magnetic reconnection, energy release, particle acceleration, and plasma heating across a broad range of temperatures and spatial scales. These campaigns have generated a rich dataset that will be the subject of numerous future studies addressing Solar Orbiter’s top-level science goal: <i>“How do solar eruptions produce energetic particle radiation that fills the heliosphere?”</i>. This paper presents the scientific motivations, operational planning, and observational strategies behind the 2024 flare campaigns, along with initial insights into the observed flares. We also discuss lessons learned for optimizing future Solar Orbiter Major Flare campaigns and provide a resource for researchers aiming to utilize these unique observations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-025-02561-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145456283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Joint Inversion of Radionuclide Production Rate Data and Thermoremanent Magnetic Records over the Holocene 全新世放射性核素产率数据与热磁记录的联合反演
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02559-0
Maximilian Arthus Schanner, Andreas Nilsson, Raimund Muscheler
{"title":"Joint Inversion of Radionuclide Production Rate Data and Thermoremanent Magnetic Records over the Holocene","authors":"Maximilian Arthus Schanner,&nbsp;Andreas Nilsson,&nbsp;Raimund Muscheler","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02559-0","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02559-0","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Understanding the Sun’s role in past climate change requires knowledge of solar variability over millennia. While direct sunspot records span only the last 400 years, longer-term changes are inferred from cosmogenic radionuclides like <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>10</sup>Be in tree rings and ice cores. Their production reflects variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, modulated by Earth’s and Sun’s magnetic fields - the latter is tied to solar activity. We present a Bayesian model that jointly reconstructs solar modulation and the global geomagnetic field over the Holocene. Extending previous work, our model directly incorporates <sup>14</sup>C and <sup>10</sup>Be production rate data and thermoremanent magnetic records. A flexible prior allows for bimodality and explicit long-term trends in solar activity. The reconstruction shows a clear separation of grand solar minima and a normal mode. Additionally, we explore the recovery of an 11-year cycle in solar modulation.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-025-02559-0.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145456285","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Solar-Cycle Variation of Large-Scale Flows in the Near-Surface Shear Layer from SC 23 to SC 26 SC 23 ~ SC 26近地表切变层大尺度气流的太阳周期变化
IF 2.4 3区 物理与天体物理
Solar Physics Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1007/s11207-025-02566-1
Rudolf Komm, Rachel Howe
{"title":"Solar-Cycle Variation of Large-Scale Flows in the Near-Surface Shear Layer from SC 23 to SC 26","authors":"Rudolf Komm,&nbsp;Rachel Howe","doi":"10.1007/s11207-025-02566-1","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-025-02566-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study the long-term variation of the zonal and meridional flows from Solar Cycle 23 to 26 throughout the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) derived with ring-diagram analysis (RDA) applied to Dopplergrams obtained mainly by Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) and compare them with global helioseismic results. We also create super-synoptic maps of the divergence of the meridional and the acceleration of the zonal flow. The bands of decelerating zonal and converging meridional flows of a given solar cycle coincide with the locations of magnetic activity at mid- to low latitudes. They begin their latitudinal migration near 50<sup>∘</sup> at or shortly after the maximum of the previous cycle, such as near 2015 for Solar Cycle 25, while the band of fast zonal flow is close to two years ahead of these bands at mid- to low latitudes. The patterns move <span>(5.20 pm 0.29^{circ })</span>/Yr from 37.5<sup>∘</sup> to 7.5<sup>∘</sup> averaged over both hemispheres during Solar Cycle 25. The zonal-flow patterns vary little with depth throughout the NSSL at 7.5<sup>∘</sup> to 30.0<sup>∘</sup> where most active regions are present. However, the bands of converging meridional flows appear somewhat earlier at greater depths than at shallower ones. The bands of fast zonal flow of Solar Cycle 25 have reached latitudes near the equator during 2024, which is close to Solar Cycle 25 maximum. A band of fast zonal flow appeared at about 50<sup>∘</sup> at the same time and thus indicates the beginning of Solar Cycle 26. The amplitudes of the bands of fast zonal flows are anti-correlated with the strength of the associated solar cycles except close to the equator. The divergence minima are also anti-correlated with magnetic activity, while the acceleration minima are only weakly anti-correlated. With the derived flow parameters, we estimate the timing and strength of Solar Cycle 26 and predict that it will be close to an average sunspot cycle.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"300 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145429161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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