Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-12-18DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02411-x
Safna Banu K., Ram Ajor Maurya
{"title":"Analysis of Overtones in Transverse Oscillations of Coronal Loops of an Active Region","authors":"Safna Banu K., Ram Ajor Maurya","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02411-x","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02411-x","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We investigate the fundamental mode and overtones in the transverse oscillations of coronal loops associated with an active region using intensity observations taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The fundamental periods of the two selected coronal loops are found to be 17.0 minutes and 15.2 minutes, respectively. The first loop oscillated in the first and second overtones, with periods of around 6.9 minutes and 4.3 minutes, respectively. However, the second loop was detected only with the first overtone of approximately 7.7 minutes period. The period ratios of the fundamental to the first overtones of these loops are 1.24 and 0.99, respectively, while the fundamental-to-second-overtone period ratio of the first loop is 1.33. Thus, the deviation of period ratios from unity helps estimate the density scale height and the loop expansion factor. We obtained a density scale height of 11 Mm for the second loop and a loop expansion factor of 1.5 for the first coronal loop, considering that coronal loops have a greater effect on the loop expansion factor than on longitudinal density stratification associated with a sigmoidal active region. Using their lengths and periods of oscillations, we estimated a reasonable average magnetic field strength within a range of <span>(20-30)</span> G in the coronal loops.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142844986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Predicting Maximum Amplitude and Rise Time of Solar Cycle 25 Using Modified Geomagnetic Precursor Technique","authors":"Kavita Sharma, Anushree Rajwanshi, Sachin Kumar, Rupesh M. Das, Nandita Srivastava","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02412-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02412-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The present study utilizes the planetary magnetic activity A<span>(_{rm p})</span> index and the sunspot numbers as geomagnetic precursor pair for predicting the strength of ongoing Cycle 25. The monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) and disturbed days (A<span>(_{rm p} geq 25)</span>), during the post-peak segments of Sunspot Cycles 17 to 24 are processed through regression analysis and the obtained analytical results are validated by comparing with the observed SSN. Hind casting results show close agreement between predicted and observed maximum amplitudes within a confidence limit of up to 10 percent. The obtained results suggest the maximum sunspot number for Solar Cycle 25 to be <span>(approx 112 pm 18)</span>. The probable peak time of Cycle 25 may appear within <span>(48pm 3)</span> months after the commencement of the cycle, i.e., between October 2023 and April 2024.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142826148","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-12-13DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02408-6
Bibhuti Kumar Jha, Theodosios Chatzistergos, Dipankar Banerjee, Ilaria Ermolli, Natalie A. Krivova, Sami K. Solanki, Aditya Priyadarshi
{"title":"Butterfly Diagram and Other Properties of Plage Areas from Kodaikanal Ca ii K Photographs Covering 1904 – 2007","authors":"Bibhuti Kumar Jha, Theodosios Chatzistergos, Dipankar Banerjee, Ilaria Ermolli, Natalie A. Krivova, Sami K. Solanki, Aditya Priyadarshi","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02408-6","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02408-6","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Ca <span>ii</span> K observations of the Sun have a great potential for probing the Sun’s magnetism and activity, as well as for reconstructing solar irradiance. The Kodaikanal Solar Observatory (KoSO) in India, houses one of the most prominent Ca <span>ii</span> K archives, spanning from 1904 to 2007, obtained under the same experimental conditions over a century, a feat very few other sites have achieved. However, the KoSO Ca <span>ii</span> K archive suffers from several inconsistencies (e.g., missing/incorrect timestamps of observations and orientation of some images) which have limited the use of the archive. This study is a step towards bringing the KoSO archive to its full potential. We did this by developing an automatic method to orient the images more accurately than in previous studies. Furthermore, we included more data than in earlier studies (considering images that could not previously be analyzed by other techniques, as well as 2845 newly digitized images), while also accounting for mistakes in the observational date/time. These images were accurately processed to identify plage regions along with their locations, enabling us to construct the butterfly diagram of plage areas from the entire KoSO Ca <span>ii</span> K archive covering 1904 – 2007. Our butterfly diagram shows significantly fewer data gaps compared to earlier versions due to the larger set of data used in this study. Moreover, our butterfly diagram is consistent with Spörer’s law for sunspots, validating our automatic image orientation method. Additionally, we found that the mean latitude of plage areas calculated over the entire period is <span>(20.5%pm 2.0)</span> higher than that of sunspots, irrespective of the phase or the strength of the solar cycle. We also studied the north–south asymmetry showing that the northern hemisphere dominated plage areas during solar cycles 19 and 20, while the southern hemisphere dominated during Solar Cycles 21 – 23.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02408-6.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142821300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-12-11DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02410-y
Alberto M. Vásquez, Federico A. Nuevo, Marco Romoli, Philippe Lamy, Federica Frassati, Hugo Gilardy, Richard A. Frazin, Alessandro Bemporad, Lucia Abbo, Yara De Leo, Giovanna Jerse, Federico Landini, Giuliana Russano, Clementina Sasso, Roberto Susino, Michela Uslenghi
{"title":"Tomography of the Solar Corona with the Metis Coronagraph II: Three-Dimensional Reconstructions of the Electron Density and Comparison with Reconstructions Based on LASCO-C2","authors":"Alberto M. Vásquez, Federico A. Nuevo, Marco Romoli, Philippe Lamy, Federica Frassati, Hugo Gilardy, Richard A. Frazin, Alessandro Bemporad, Lucia Abbo, Yara De Leo, Giovanna Jerse, Federico Landini, Giuliana Russano, Clementina Sasso, Roberto Susino, Michela Uslenghi","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02410-y","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02410-y","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We carried out tomographic reconstructions of the three-dimensional distribution of the electron density of the solar corona based on white light polarized brightness (pB) images taken by the Metis coronagraph on board the Solar Orbiter (SolO) mission. We selected three different time intervals during 2022, and further implemented independent synchronous reconstructions based on LASCO-C2 pB images for comparison purposes. The range of elongations covered by the field-of-view (FoV) of Metis considerably varies as SolO describes its highly eccentric orbit, whereas that of LASCO-C2 remains almost constant. During the selected time intervals, their FoVs partially overlap, allowing a comparison of the reconstructions within the regions in common. The shape and size of the reconstructed coronal structures, streamers and coronal holes, are consistent, demonstrating the suitability of the images of the synoptic program of Metis for tomographic reconstruction of the coronal electron density over its varying FoV. A comparison between the two tomographic reconstructions for each analyzed time interval, shows that the Metis-to-C2 ratio of reconstructed electron density has a median value of <span>(approx 1.7)</span>. This is consistent with the observed ratio of the pB measurements of the two instruments. Our analysis thus also illustrates the value of tomography as a tool for intercalibrating solar coronagraphs irrespective of their spatial location, as long as their FoV partially overlap.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142798282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-12-03DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02404-w
Ruslan Karakotov, Alexey Kuznetsov, Sergey Anfinogentov, Valery M. Nakariakov
{"title":"Sloshing Oscillations in Hot Coronal Loops Associated with M-Class Flares","authors":"Ruslan Karakotov, Alexey Kuznetsov, Sergey Anfinogentov, Valery M. Nakariakov","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02404-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02404-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Analysis of more than 300 M-class solar flares observed with the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory in the 131 Å channel, revealed 16 events of sloshing oscillations in hot solar coronal loops. Time–distance maps made along the loops demonstrated EUV emission intensity blobs bouncing between the footpoints, i.e., showing characteristic zigzagging patterns, of the size shorter than 25% of the loop length. The oscillation periods are found to range from about 150 s to 1325 s. The average phase speed, estimated as the ratio of the oscillation period and the loop length, is about 500 km s<sup>−1</sup>. Parameters of the oscillations are consistent with the interpretation in terms of multi-harmonic slow magnetoacoustic oscillations.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142761971","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-12-03DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02406-8
S. M. Belov, N. S. Shlyk, M. A. Abunina, A. V. Belov, A. A. Abunin, V. A. Oleneva, V. G. Yanke
{"title":"On the Most Interesting Solar-Wind and Cosmic-Ray Events in February–April 2023","authors":"S. M. Belov, N. S. Shlyk, M. A. Abunina, A. V. Belov, A. A. Abunin, V. A. Oleneva, V. G. Yanke","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02406-8","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02406-8","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The article focuses on identifying and studying several large-scale solar-wind disturbances and associated Forbush effects in the first months of 2023. Variations of the cosmic-ray flux (with 10 GV rigidity) are obtained using the Global Survey Method with data from the global network of neutron monitors. The beginning of 2023 is characterized by a relatively large number of Forbush effects; the largest ones were recorded on 26 – 28 February, 15 – 16 March, 23 – 25 March, and 23 – 24 April. These events and their relationship with solar-wind parameters, geomagnetic activity, and associated solar sources are discussed in detail. In terms of the number and magnitude of interplanetary disturbances and corresponding cosmic-ray variations, February–April 2023 proves to be the first active period since the beginning of Solar Cycle 25.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142761970","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02405-9
Dan Yang, Stephan G. Heinemann, Robert H. Cameron, Laurent Gizon
{"title":"Combined Surface Flux Transport and Helioseismic Far-Side Active Region Model (FARM)","authors":"Dan Yang, Stephan G. Heinemann, Robert H. Cameron, Laurent Gizon","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02405-9","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02405-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Maps of the magnetic field at the Sun’s surface are commonly used as boundary conditions in space-weather modeling. However, continuous observations are only available from the Earth-facing part of the Sun’s surface. One commonly used approach to mitigate the lack of far-side information is to apply a surface flux transport (SFT) model to model the evolution of the magnetic field as the Sun rotates. Helioseismology can image active regions on the far side using acoustic oscillations and hence has the potential to improve the modeled surface magnetic field. In this study, we propose a novel approach for estimating magnetic fields of active regions on the Sun’s far side based on seismic measurements and then include them into an SFT model. To calibrate the conversion from helioseismic signal to magnetic field, we apply our SFT model to line-of-sight magnetograms from Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) to obtain reference maps of global magnetic fields (including the far side). The resulting magnetic maps are compared with helioseismic phase maps on the Sun’s far side computed using helioseismic holography. The spatial structure of the magnetic field within an active region is reflected in the spatial structure of the helioseismic phase shifts. We assign polarities to the unipolar magnetic-field concentrations based upon Hale’s law and require approximate flux balance between the two polarities. From 2010 to 2024, we modeled 859 active regions, with an average total unsigned flux of <span>(7.84 cdot 10^{21})</span> Mx and an average area of <span>(4.48 cdot 10^{10})</span> km<sup>2</sup>. Approximately <span>(4.2%)</span> of the active regions were found to have an anti-Hale configuration, which we manually corrected. Including these far-side active regions resulted in an average increase of <span>(1.2%)</span> (up to <span>(25.3%)</span>) in the total unsigned magnetogram flux. Comparisons between modeled open-field areas and EUV observations reveal a substantial improvement in agreement when far-side active regions are included. This proof of concept study demonstrates the potential of the “combined surface flux transport and helioseismic Far-side Active Region Model” (FARM) to improve space-weather modeling.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02405-9.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142736849","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02398-5
Munetoshi Tokumaru, Ken’ichi Fujiki
{"title":"Coronal Magnetic-Field Configuration Associated with Pseudostreamer and Slow Solar Wind","authors":"Munetoshi Tokumaru, Ken’ichi Fujiki","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02398-5","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02398-5","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The global distribution of the solar wind speed <span>(V)</span> is closely related to the configuration of the coronal magnetic-field, and the expansion factor <span>(f)</span> of the flux tube is known as a parameter for determining <span>(V)</span>. However, the inverse relation between <span>(f)</span> and <span>(V)</span> does not hold for pseudostreamers, which separate open-field regions with the same polarity. In the present study, we examined the magnetic-field configuration of pseudostreamers using the potential field (PF) model analysis of magnetograph observations for six Carrington rotations (CRs) in Cycle 23 and compared it with <span>(V)</span> data derived from interplanetary scintillation observations. We calculated the parameter <span>(S)</span>, which represents the relative angular distance of foot points on the photosphere magnetically connected to adjacent pixels on the source surface and <span>(f)</span> from PF model analysis and discriminated areas of helmet and pseudostreamers on the source surface by selecting large values of <span>(S)</span>. Although the overall correlation between <span>(S)</span> and <span>(V)</span> was very poor, helmet and pseudostreamers with large <span>(S)</span> values were exclusively associated with slow <span>(V)</span>. Furthermore, helmet and pseudostreamers were associated with large and small values of <span>(f)</span>, respectively. This suggests that <span>(S)</span> enables a better discrimination of slow-wind sources associated with pseudostreamers than <span>(f)</span>. We calculated the distance from the streamer boundary (DSTB) on the source surface using data of helmet and pseudostreamers to compare with <span>(V)</span> data. Calculated DSTB data exhibited significant correlations with <span>(V)</span> data except for the solar maximum period. The average of correlation coefficients between DSTB and <span>(V)</span> over five CRs excluding one at the solar maximum were 0.69, higher than that between the distance from the coronal hole boundary (DCHB) and <span>(V)</span>. This suggests that DSTB acts as a better parameter for determining <span>(V)</span> than DCHB. We demonstrated that <span>(f)</span> for pseudostreamers tended to reach a maximum at a height lower than the source surface (2.5 <span>(R_{odot })</span>). This provides important insight into the formation process of the slow solar wind in pseudostreamers.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02398-5.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142736850","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-11-27DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02407-7
Harry J. Greatorex, Ryan O. Milligan, Ingolf E. Dammasch
{"title":"On the Instrumental Discrepancies in Lyman-Alpha Observations of Solar Flares","authors":"Harry J. Greatorex, Ryan O. Milligan, Ingolf E. Dammasch","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02407-7","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02407-7","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Despite the energetic significance of Lyman-alpha (Ly<span>(alpha )</span>; 1216 Å) emission from solar flares, regular observations of flare related Ly<span>(alpha )</span> have been relatively scarce until recently. Advances in instrumental capabilities and a shift in focus over previous solar cycles mean it is now routinely possible to take regular co-observations of Ly<span>(alpha )</span> emission in solar flares. Thus, it is valuable to examine how the instruments selected for flare observations may influence the conclusions drawn from the analysis of their unique measurements. Here, we examine three M-class flares each observed in Ly<span>(alpha )</span> by GOES-14/EUVS-E, GOES-15/EUVS-E, or GOES-16/EXIS-EUVS-B, and at least one other instrument from PROBA2/LYRA, MAVEN/EUVM, ASO-S/LST-SDI, and SDO/EVE-MEGS-P. For each flare, the relative and excess flux, contrast, total energy, and timings of the Ly<span>(alpha )</span> emission were compared between instruments. It was found that while the discrepancies in measurements of the relative flux between instruments may be considered minimal, the calculated contrasts, excess fluxes, and energetics may differ significantly – in some cases up to a factor of five. This may have a notable impact on multi-instrument investigations of the variable Ly<span>(alpha )</span> emission in solar flares and estimates of the contribution of Ly<span>(alpha )</span> to the radiated energy budget of the chromosphere. The findings presented in this study will act as a guide for the interpretation of observations of flare-related Ly<span>(alpha )</span> from upcoming instruments during future solar cycles and inform conclusions drawn from multi-instrument studies.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02407-7.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142736848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Solar PhysicsPub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1007/s11207-024-02385-w
Khalid A. Alobaid, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang, Ju Jing, Yasser Abduallah, Zhenduo Wang, Hameedullah Farooki, Huseyin Cavus, Vasyl Yurchyshyn
{"title":"Prediction of Geoeffective CMEs Using SOHO Images and Deep Learning","authors":"Khalid A. Alobaid, Jason T. L. Wang, Haimin Wang, Ju Jing, Yasser Abduallah, Zhenduo Wang, Hameedullah Farooki, Huseyin Cavus, Vasyl Yurchyshyn","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02385-w","DOIUrl":"10.1007/s11207-024-02385-w","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness are crucial for protecting infrastructure in space and ensuring the resilience of technological systems on Earth. Here we present GeoCME, a deep-learning framework designed to predict, deterministically or probabilistically, whether a CME event that arrives at Earth will cause a geomagnetic storm. A geomagnetic storm is defined as a disturbance of the Earth’s magnetosphere during which the minimum Dst index value is less than −50 nT. GeoCME is trained on observations from the instruments including LASCO C2, EIT, and MDI on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), focusing on a dataset that includes 136 halo/partial halo CMEs in Solar Cycle 23. Using ensemble and transfer learning techniques, GeoCME is capable of extracting features hidden in the SOHO observations and making predictions based on the learned features. Our experimental results demonstrate the good performance of GeoCME, achieving a Matthew’s correlation coefficient of 0.807 and a true skill statistics score of 0.714 when the tool is used as a deterministic prediction model. When the tool is used as a probabilistic forecasting model, it achieves a Brier score of 0.094 and a Brier skill score of 0.493. These results are promising, showing that the proposed GeoCME can help enhance our understanding of CME-triggered solar-terrestrial interactions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":"299 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11207-024-02385-w.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142672497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}